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  • You did some research into money, I think when you were coming around to finally understand this and I think you did go back to 5500 years, you looked at gold, you looked at ledgers and then you looked at the dollar and you looked at what happened post pandemic and you said, ok, Now I really see this disconnect, can you explain some of the things that you learned and then talk about the dollar?

    你對貨幣做了一些研究,我想當你最終理解這個的時候,我想你確實回到了5500年,你看了黃金,你看了賬本,然後你看了美元,你看了大流行後發生的事情,你說,好吧,現在我真的看到了這個脫節,你能解釋一下你學到的一些東西嗎,然後談談美元?

  • And I had my 17 year old daughter Gabriella in here two weeks ago.

    兩週前,我的17歲的女兒加布裡埃拉在這裡。

  • Um and we had a conversation that we were having at home and she didn't know any crypto and and she was saying, how can they keep printing money and asking all of these amazing questions that, you know, only a teenager or a kid would ask um that we all should be asking.

    我們在家裡進行了一次談話,她不知道任何加密貨幣,她說,他們怎麼能繼續印錢,並問所有這些驚人的問題,你知道,只有青少年或孩子會問嗯,我們都應該問。

  • Um tell me your view on money after you did that research.

    嗯,告訴我你在做完這些研究後對金錢的看法。

  • Well, I mean, I say, let's say a couple broad things first, you know, and I would recommend Professor Ferguson's book the ascent of money Neil Ferguson.

    好吧,我的意思是,我說,讓我們先說幾個廣泛的事情,你知道,我想推薦弗格森教授的書《金錢的上升》尼爾-弗格森。

  • You can also watch the PBS documentary that's available in most places now, which just describes what money has actually been to civilization.

    你也可以看PBS的紀錄片,現在大多數地方都有,它只是描述了金錢對文明的實際作用。

  • And so not to bore people, but all it is, is a technology.

    是以,不是為了讓人們感到無聊,但它只是一種技術。

  • It's a tool that we're using in exchange uh instead of bartering with each other.

    這是一個我們用來交換的工具呃,而不是互相交換的工具。

  • And so uh we use seashells, wampum grain.

    是以,呃,我們使用貝殼,wampum穀物。

  • We had gold coins or silver coins stamped with roman emperors profiles on them or the leader of the day.

    我們有金幣或銀幣,上面印有羅馬皇帝的簡介或當時的領導人。

  • And we've had that constant transference into that technology of what we perceive to be value.

    而我們已經把我們認為是價值的東西不斷轉移到該技術中。

  • But one axiomatic fact of money, it's never worth what the goods and services are that were trading for.

    但是,金錢的一個不言而喻的事實是,它永遠不值與之交易的商品和服務。

  • You know I have a piece of fabric.

    你知道我有一塊布。

  • Uh It's not paper money.

    呃 這不是紙幣。

  • It's actually made out of cotton and linen at least in the United States.

    實際上,至少在美國,它是由棉和亞麻製成的。

  • And that piece of fabric painted green, just a piece of paper.

    而那塊塗成綠色的布料,只是一張紙。

  • But yet it has symbols on it and it's a totem that we trust with each other.

    但它上面卻有符號,是我們相互信任的圖騰。

  • So the second axiomatic fact is it has to be a trusted network.

    是以,第二個不言而喻的事實是它必須是一個可信的網絡。

  • I have $100 bill.

    我有100美元的鈔票。

  • I can go to the pizzeria with that piece of fabric.

    我可以帶著那塊布去比薩店。

  • They'll take it from me because they know they can give it to another person who will accept that fabric for goods and services or for the labor to make the pizza and and and so on and so forth.

    他們會從我這裡拿走這些錢,因為他們知道他們可以把錢給另一個人,而這個人將接受這些布料來換取商品和服務,或者換取製作比薩的勞動力,等等等等。

  • Or think about electronically if I like a G wagon and I want to wire electronically money from my ledger and electronically spits out to the other person's bank account of the Mercedes Benz dealership.

    或者想想電子化,如果我喜歡一輛G型旅行車,我想從我的賬本上電匯錢,然後電子化地吐到對方的奔馳經銷商的銀行賬戶。

  • 200,000 of those later the G wagon shows up in my driveway.

    20萬輛之後,G型貨車出現在我的車道上。

  • What are those things, were there just electronic bits But what Professor Ferguson would say is there a network, there are trusted network and we trusted and it's been based on and backed by the government and so therefore we trust it.

    但弗格森教授會說,有一個網絡,有可信的網絡,我們相信,它是基於政府的支持,所以我們相信它。

  • And so what has happened unfortunately throughout history is that the money gets corrupted.

    是以,在歷史上不幸發生的事情是,錢被腐蝕了。

  • Because what governments have a tendency to do is they have a tendency to create more volume of it.

    因為政府傾向於做的是他們傾向於創造更多的數量。

  • And the volume will actually solve short term solutions or the volume will actually induce more exports.

    而成交量實際上會解決短期的解決方案,或者成交量實際上會誘發更多的出口。

  • You know, you you may remember from your 11th grade european history course on mercantilism, you know, if you're lowering your currency or devaluing their currency, you can send exports through the roof.

    你知道,你你可能記得你11年級的歐洲歷史課程中關於重商主義的內容,你知道,如果你降低你的貨幣或讓他們的貨幣貶值,你可以讓出口突破屋頂。

  • And so John Maynard Keynes in 1944 when they sat at Bretton Woods and they were resetting the currency table and they were resetting the idea of global trade.

    是以,約翰-梅納德-凱恩斯在1944年,當他們坐在佈雷頓森林,他們正在重新設置貨幣表,他們正在重新設置全球貿易的想法。

  • Uh professor Kane's actually wanted a single currency all the other industrial nations pushed back.

    呃......凱恩教授實際上想要一個單一的貨幣,所有其他工業國家都推卻了。

  • But his point was a single currency will keep us all honest, we won't be able to manipulate our respective currencies and it'll help global trade.

    但他的觀點是,單一貨幣將使我們都保持誠實,我們將無法操縱我們各自的貨幣,這將有助於全球貿易。

  • But more importantly it will help middle and lower middle income people because you said that the bank is a part of our life but you know, it's also become part of our life, brian is the central bank.

    但更重要的是,它將幫助中等和中等偏下收入的人,因為你說,銀行是我們生活的一部分,但你知道,它也成為我們生活的一部分,布里安是中央銀行。

  • Anybody that owns dollar denominated assets or pound denominated assets has been taxed by their neighborly central banker because they produced so much more money Over the last 13 years, let's just go over the last year in the United States, the M2 supply of money, the supply of dollars has increased 37% Since April of 2020.

    任何擁有以美元計價的資產或以英鎊計價的資產的人都被他們鄰近的中央銀行家徵稅,因為他們生產了這麼多的錢 在過去的13年裡,讓我們只看美國去年的情況,貨幣的M2供應,美元的供應自2020年4月以來增加了37%。

  • In the first five months of 2021.

    在2021年的前五個月。

  • We electronically created $469 billion $10,000 in your bank account, Well, it only has $9200 worth of purchasing power today, Relative to what it had a year ago.

    我們以電子方式在你的銀行賬戶中創造了4690億美元,那麼,相對於一年前的購買力,今天它只有9200美元的價值。

  • And so we have to understand that and that's stealing our time, that's stealing our energy.

    是以,我們必須理解這一點,這是在偷竊我們的時間,偷竊我們的精力。

  • Now, if we own assets were well protected, you know, Calvin Klein, uh the fashion designer bought his Hamptons real estate, waterfront property for $3.6 million dollars In 1987.

    現在,如果我們自己的資產得到了很好的保護,你知道,卡爾文-克萊恩,呃,這位時裝設計師在1987年以360萬美元的價格買下了他在漢普頓的房地產,海濱房產。

  • He sold it last month for 85 million fiat dollars.

    他在上個月以8500萬法幣的價格出售了它。

  • And so we crushed that currency.

    是以,我們粉碎了這種貨幣。

  • And and so what happened to us is we had very good wages, aspirational living standards for America's middle class and the middle class in Western civilization.

    是以,發生在我們身上的情況是,我們有非常好的工資,美國的中產階級和西方文明的中產階級有理想的生活標準。

  • But 50 short years ago, in August of 1971, August 15, Richard Nixon said, you know, we can't pay back our deficits.

    但短短50年前,在1971年8月,8月15日,理查德-尼克松說,你知道,我們無法償還我們的財政赤字。

  • People want our gold, the dollar was tied to gold, it was $35 per ounce of gold.

    人們想要我們的黃金,美元與黃金掛鉤,當時是每盎司黃金35美元。

  • And so what Richard Nixon said is that we can't do that anymore.

    是以,理查德-尼克松所說的是,我們不能再這樣做了。

  • So we're just gonna let our currency float freely.

    是以,我們只是要讓我們的貨幣自由浮動。

  • And it had this huge disruptive effect in global commerce.

    它對全球商業產生了巨大的顛覆性影響。

  • It caused massive inflation in the 1970s.

    它在1970年代造成了大規模的通貨膨脹。

  • That you know, inflation was subsequently tamed by our federal reserve and emerging technologies that brought down prices but it corrupted the money.

    那你知道,通貨膨脹後來被我們的聯邦儲備和新興技術馴服,使價格下降,但它腐蝕了貨幣。

  • And so let's just go through the math $35 an ounce.

    是以,讓我們來算一算35美元一盎司的價格。

  • In 1971, it's $1700 announced today.

    在1971年,今天宣佈的是1700美元。

  • We took our money down about 98%.

    我們把我們的錢減少了大約98%。

  • So to put it in real world terms to American dollars has the purchasing power of $100 American today.

    是以,用現實世界的術語來說,對美國美元的購買力相當於今天的100美元。

  • Uh And that is damaging, it's damaging to the middle class, damaging the lower middle class.

    呃 而這是破壞性的,是對中產階級的破壞,對中下層階級的破壞。

  • It may help us in the short term, but it has very long term deleterious side effects.

    它可能在短期內幫助我們,但它有非常長期的有害的副作用。

  • And so incomes Natasha Nagamoto or the group known as Natasha Nakamoto.

    於是就有了娜塔莎-長本或被稱為娜塔莎-中本的團體。

  • We started this process Aggressively in the 2008 financial crisis.

    我們在2008年的金融危機中積極地開始了這個過程。

  • He said, well listen if we're going to corrupt the money like this, we have to use our technology to create money that can actually offer a standard for the world or some type of stability to long term value.

    他說,好吧,聽著,如果我們要像這樣腐蝕金錢,我們必須使用我們的技術來創造金錢,實際上可以為世界提供一個標準或某種類型的穩定的長期價值。

  • And he basically said if if you if you understand what I'm saying, then you'll recognize that we can create this ledger through mathematical properties and if I'm right and people start to accept it, well then the The coin, the Bitcoin or that currency will start to rise in value because it will start to make sense that that will be the currency that we use in terms of the transfer of goods and services.

    他基本上說,如果你如果你理解我所說的,那麼你就會認識到我們可以通過數學特性來創建這個賬本,如果我是對的,而且人們開始接受它,那麼硬幣、比特幣或該貨幣將開始升值,因為它將開始有意義,這將是我們在轉移貨物和服務方面使用的貨幣。

  • So so listen uh if you look at in 2009 so that's hard to believe it's worthless is just an electronic cryptographic.

    所以,所以聽著呃,如果你在2009年看,所以這很難相信它是沒有價值的,只是一個電子密碼學。

  • You look at it in 2014 say whoa People are adopting it.

    你在2014年看看它,說哇,人們正在採用它。

  • They're starting to recognize that it could be real.

    他們開始認識到,這可能是真的。

  • And then of course last year when I got to 100 million users I turned to my team said that's escape velocity for me Now.

    當然,去年當我的用戶數達到1億時,我對我的團隊說,這就是我現在的逃逸速度。

  • The good news for everybody listening, we are still early.

    對每個聽眾來說,好消息是,我們仍然是早期。

  • The best time to have bought Bitcoin was 11 years ago.

    購買比特幣的最佳時間是11年前。

  • The second best time to buy bitcoins right now.

    現在是購買比特幣的第二個最佳時機。

  • Okay, so we're incredibly early.

    好的,所以我們難以置信的早。

  • We only have 2.5 fish percent saturation in the world.

    我們在世界上只有2.5%的魚飽和度。

  • There's about 180 million wallets for Bitcoin today.

    今天有大約1.8億個比特幣的錢包。

  • Uh If Cathy Wood is correct, it will go to A billion wallets by the end of 2025 I believe that's the case.

    呃 如果凱西-伍德是正確的,到2025年底將達到10億個錢包,我相信是這樣的。

  • Uh And if that's the case, given the scarcity of Bitcoin, these coins will be worth several $100,000 a coin.

    呃 而如果是這樣的話,考慮到比特幣的稀缺性,這些硬幣將價值幾十萬美元一個。

  • Uh and I think it's important for people to have some of them in their portfolio.

    呃,我認為人們在他們的投資組合中擁有一些是很重要的。

  • Now of course if I'm 100% wrong, I tell clients, let's have a small piece.

    當然,現在如果我是100%的錯誤,我告訴客戶,讓我們吃一小塊。

  • If I'm right, you're going to be well rewarded.

    如果我是對的,你將會得到很好的回報。

  • And if I'm wrong, it won't be enough to hurt you.

    如果我錯了,也不至於傷害你。

  • But I think we're going that way.

    但我認為我們正朝著這個方向發展。

  • So you have two things happening at once an improvement in our currency through technology and the destruction of the old system, born from the capricious nature of our policymakers and our politicians.

    是以,你有兩件事同時發生,一是通過技術改進我們的貨幣,二是破壞舊的系統,這是由我們的政策制定者和政治家的反覆無常的性質所產生。

  • So those those simultaneous interactions are creating a ripe environment for this type of technology to emerge.

    是以,這些同時進行的互動為這種類型的技術的出現創造了一個成熟的環境。

You did some research into money, I think when you were coming around to finally understand this and I think you did go back to 5500 years, you looked at gold, you looked at ledgers and then you looked at the dollar and you looked at what happened post pandemic and you said, ok, Now I really see this disconnect, can you explain some of the things that you learned and then talk about the dollar?

你對貨幣做了一些研究,我想當你最終理解這個的時候,我想你確實回到了5500年,你看了黃金,你看了賬本,然後你看了美元,你看了大流行後發生的事情,你說,好吧,現在我真的看到了這個脫節,你能解釋一下你學到的一些東西嗎,然後談談美元?

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B1 中級 中文 美元 金錢 特幣 技術 黃金 中產階級

金錢的崛起?安東尼-斯卡拉穆奇談我們是如何腐蝕金錢的 (The Ascent of Money ? Anthony Scaramucci on How We Are Corrupting The Money)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 15 日
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