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  • I try to explain that same thing to my students and I think, you know, you just did an eloquent job there.

    我試圖向我的學生解釋同樣的事情,我認為,你知道,你剛剛做了一個雄辯的工作。

  • Um it's funny because when I meet a bunch of people that have been, you know, in the crypto markets for six months or even six years, a lot of them don't have that.

    嗯,這很有趣,因為當我遇到一群人,你知道,在加密貨幣市場上已經有六個月甚至六年的時間,他們中的很多人都沒有這個能力。

  • I call it almost like an algorithm in your brain.

    我稱它幾乎是你大腦中的一種算法。

  • You're almost programming your behavior before it happens, you're almost like the terminator.

    你幾乎是在行為發生之前就對你的行為進行編程,你幾乎就像終結者。

  • And they're used to, you know, check in prices on mobile phones, trading at two in the morning trading when they're happy, they're sad, they're drunk, they're mad and trading with more frequency than they should be.

    他們習慣於,你知道,在手機上查看價格,在凌晨兩點進行交易,在他們高興、悲傷、醉酒、瘋狂的時候進行交易,而且交易的頻率比他們應該的還要高。

  • And then I come in and I say, guess what?

    然後我進來了,我說,你猜怎麼著?

  • We're going to trade maybe once a week, maybe once a month before the trade goes on.

    我們也許每週交易一次,也許一個月交易一次,然後再進行交易。

  • You put a stop loss in and you know where you're taking profits and they're like, you're taking all the fun out of this.

    你設置了止損,你知道你在哪裡獲利,他們就會說,你把所有的樂趣都拿走了。

  • And I'm like, you know, this shouldn't be netflix, this is trading and this is p nl you just mentioned stop loss.

    我想,你知道,這不應該是Netflix,這是交易,這是p nl你剛才提到的止損。

  • Let's talk about this scott because I felt like I put a big wet towel on my students when I talk about stop loss.

    讓我們來談談這個問題吧,因為我覺得當我談論止損的時候,我給我的學生放了一條大溼毛巾。

  • And it's funny to see the brain argue against stop loss, right?

    而且,看到大腦中對止損的爭論很有趣,對嗎?

  • Like when you tell your kids, I gotta go to bed early, they come up with all sorts of really good reasons why they shouldn't with the stop loss, They say, well what if I'm hobbling the markets are volatile.

    就像你告訴你的孩子,我得早點睡覺,他們會想出各種非常好的理由,為什麼他們不應該帶著止損,他們說,好吧,如果我步履蹣跚,市場波動大怎麼辦。

  • I get triggered.

    我被觸發了。

  • There's traders out there trying to trigger my stop.

    有交易員在外面試圖觸發我的止損。

  • I'm sure you heard that one scott.

    我確信你聽說過這句話,斯科特。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

  • So talk about, first of all, what a stop losses.

    是以,談一談,首先,什麼是止損。

  • And also, where's that program profit trading in there?

    還有,那裡的程序利潤交易在哪裡?

  • And maybe we can give an example, like if someone went into Bitcoin right now, it's a 48,000.

    也許我們可以舉個例子,比如說如果有人現在進入比特幣,它是一個48,000。

  • Um, what would be a really sensible, smart long term strategy for putting those pieces in and maybe explain to people why their emotions are going to change right after that trade, there's a lot to unpack there.

    嗯,什麼才是真正明智的、聰明的長期戰略,把這些碎片放進去,也許向人們解釋為什麼他們的情緒會在那次交易後馬上發生變化,那裡有很多東西要解開。

  • So looking at Bitcoin as an investor, I'll buy it at every price and I do a dollar cost average blindly as a trader.

    是以,作為投資者看比特幣,我會在每個價格買入,作為交易員,我盲目地做一個美元成本平均。

  • This is not somewhere that I'm interested in buying.

    這不是我有興趣購買的地方。

  • In fact, if I was a shorter term trader might looking tell a bit right?

    事實上,如果我是一個短線交易員,可能會看的出一點吧?

  • If I was scalping purely with no emotional attachment to the asset and no longer term position.

    如果我是純粹的剝頭皮,對資產沒有感情,也沒有長期頭寸。

  • Uh, to me a key level on the Bitcoin chart was 42,000.

    呃,對我來說,比特幣圖表上的一個關鍵水準是42,000。

  • That was the top of the entire move from the all time high at 20.

    這是從歷史最高點20點開始的整個移動的頂部。

  • We stalled there for about a month.

    我們在那裡停滯了大約一個月。

  • Tesla bought $1.5 billion 40 through 42 and headed up to 65 when it lost that 42 level to me was sort of when the shorter term bear market narrative was entered and we stayed there since May 19 until just a few weeks ago.

    特斯拉從40到42買入15億美元,當它失去42的水準時,我認為是進入短期低迷的市場敘事的時候,我們從5月19日到幾周前一直呆在那裡。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

  • So almost three months an entire boring summer of people find getting out of their houses and enjoying their lives and not trading.

    是以,幾乎三個月,整個無聊的夏天,人們發現走出他們的房子,享受他們的生活,而不是交易。

  • Um and it took quite a bit of time to consolidate.

    嗯,而且花了相當多的時間來鞏固。

  • Accumulate and break that level.

    積累並打破這一水準。

  • So Levels are flexible.

    是以,水準是靈活的。

  • I'm not saying if price goes to $41,999 that your thesis is broken, but to me, if I was going to enter trade and why wouldn't now that's too wide of a stop for me Because I think everything still looks bullish above 40 to 42,000.

    我不是說如果價格漲到41,999美元,你的論點就被打破了,但對我來說,如果我打算進入交易,為什麼不呢,這對我來說是一個太寬的止損點,因為我認為在40至42,000美元以上,一切看起來都是看漲的。

  • So that would mean I'd have to put my stops in the 30, you know, below 40,000 somewhere.

    是以,這將意味著我必須把我的止損放在30,你知道,低於40000的地方。

  • And that's just way too big of a gap to make the risk reward worth buying at 48 as a trader.

    而這只是太大的差距,作為一個交易員,風險回報值得在48點買入。

  • So I personally, I'm always looking to enter more, I have bids in that area, I'm looking for the drop to buy and if I miss it, life goes on.

    所以我個人,我一直在尋找進入更多的東西,我在那個地區有出價,我在尋找下跌的時候買入,如果我錯過了,生活還得繼續。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

  • So my stop loss would be maybe 39,539,700.

    所以我的止損可能是39,539,700。

  • So I'd much rather enter at 40 or 41 can enter at 48, right?

    所以我更願意在40歲或41歲時進入,或在48歲時進入,對嗎?

  • Because my position size would have to be so small Entering at 48 to be able to manage risk and only take a small portfolio loss.

    因為我的倉位規模必須很小,在48點進場,才能控制風險,只承受小的組合損失。

  • So that's one thing the general importance of a stop loss is that and what people don't realize they view it themselves as losing, it's not losing.

    是以,這是一件事,止損的一般重要性在於,而人們沒有意識到的是,他們自己把它視為損失,這不是損失。

  • Its an invalidation of an idea, it's admitting you're wrong.

    它是對一個想法的無效化,是承認自己的錯誤。

  • That's the problem people have with it of course because people hate to be wrong and that's what destroys traders.

    這就是人們對它的問題,當然,因為人們討厭錯誤,而這正是破壞交易者的原因。

  • But it's an opportunity to find a better entry in my mind.

    但這是一個機會,可以在我心中找到一個更好的入口。

  • And if you say that mantra over and over again to yourself over years, you'll start to not view it as a loss but an opportunity for a better entry.

    如果你多年來反覆對自己說這句口頭禪,你就會開始不把它看作是一種損失,而是一個更好的進入機會。

  • Okay, well I stopped out here.

    好吧,我在這裡停了下來。

  • That means it's going lower.

    這意味著它正在走低。

  • I can get in lower right if my thesis is correct.

    如果我的論述正確,我可以進入右下方。

  • Let's look at the next area where I would buy and try again and you can make up for that entire loss many fold if you're right on the next entry.

    讓我們看看下一個區域,我會在那裡買入並再次嘗試,如果你在下一次進場時是正確的,你可以把整個損失補回來很多倍。

  • So to me you're gambling if you do not have a stop loss.

    所以對我來說,如果你不設止損,你就是在賭博。

  • So what's the importance of a stop loss?

    那麼,止損的重要性是什麼?

  • You're looking at a chart?

    你在看一個圖表?

  • A chart is just a visual manifestation of human emotion.

    圖表只是人類情感的一種視覺表現。

  • Like we talked about before.

    就像我們之前談到的那樣。

  • Why do you support and resistance and all these lines exist.

    為什麼你的支持和阻力以及所有這些線都存在。

  • They exist because this is where all the same people are going to make bad decisions.

    它們的存在是因為這就是所有同樣的人都會做出錯誤決定的地方。

  • So your goal by looking at a chart as a trader is to make a good decision when everybody else is most likely to make a bad one, right?

    是以,作為一個交易員,你看圖表的目的是在其他人最有可能做出錯誤決定的時候做出一個好的決定,對嗎?

  • This is where everybody's gonna panic sell.

    這是大家要恐慌性拋售的地方。

  • I'm gonna buy it.

    我要買下它。

  • It's going to go the other way counter trading the crowd, but you're gambling if you don't have an invalidation because then you're just emotionally hoping and hope is obviously not a strategy.

    它會以另一種方式逆向交易人群,但如果你沒有一個無效的方法,你就是在賭博,因為那樣你就只是情緒上的希望,而希望顯然不是一種策略。

  • So the first way you should approach trade, you look at the chart figure out where would ideally like to be in right, what's a good entry or you can start at the stop loss.

    是以,你應該採取的第一種交易方式是,你看一下圖表,想一想最好是在哪裡,什麼是好的入口,或者你可以從止損點開始。

  • Where is any bullish idea invalidating?

    哪裡有什麼看漲的想法是無效的?

  • Figure that out, figure out where I did ideal entry is calculate that gap and then back calculated to your portfolio size to figure out the size of your position, Right?

    弄清楚,弄清楚我在哪裡做了理想的進入是計算那個缺口,然後回算到你的投資組合規模,以弄清楚你的頭寸規模,對嗎?

  • I want to lose 1% of my portfolio.

    我想損失我的投資組合的1%。

  • This is how much I will lose on this trade if I'm wrong.

    這就是如果我錯了,我在這筆交易中會損失多少錢。

  • This is how the size of that trade to make that math work seems complicated, seems boring like you said.

    這就是那筆交易的規模,使那筆數學運算看起來很複雜,似乎像你說的那樣無聊。

  • But it is, there was a famous quote that trade, I can't now of course I can't place the trader that said it.

    但它是,有一句交易的名言,我現在當然不能說出說這句話的交易員。

  • But that, that trading should be more like watching paint dry if you want an excitement, go to Vegas at least you get free drinks right.

    但是,那個,那個交易應該更像看油漆幹,如果你想有個刺激,去拉斯維加斯至少你有免費的飲料吧。

  • Um It should not be gambling, trading should be extremely extremely boring because you should have a plan and weight and then once the plans enacted, you shouldn't watch the chart to figure out what's going to happen because you know where you're going to exit either up or down.

    嗯 這不應該是賭博,交易應該是極其極其無聊的,因為你應該有一個計劃和砝碼,然後一旦計劃頒佈,你不應該看圖表來弄清楚會發生什麼,因為你知道你會在哪裡退出,要麼是向上要麼是向下。

  • So if your training without a stop loss, you are gambling 100%,, 100% gambling and like I said, this comes back to the core idea.

    是以,如果你的訓練沒有止損,你就是100%的賭博,100%的賭博,就像我說的,這又回到了核心思想。

  • Do you want to be right or do you want to be rich Because your your average trader maybe if they have an edge is right?

    你想成為正確的人還是想成為富有的人 因為你的普通交易員也許如果他們有一個優勢是正確的?

  • 55% of time, Right?

    55%的時間,對嗎?

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • I was a part of a sports gambling group where we bet on every single NFL game for the entire season on a spread And the person who gets the most right at the end of the season, out of hundreds of people wins the entire pot huge pot.

    我曾是一個體育賭博小組的成員,我們在整個賽季的每一場NFL比賽中都以點球的方式下注,而在賽季結束時,在數百人中獲得最多權利的人贏得了整個小耳朵。

  • And every year it's consistently someone who gets 56, of them correct right against the spread because Vegas is good.

    每年都會有人得到56個,其中正確的是對差價,因為拉斯維加斯是好的。

  • So your edge doesn't come with being right.

    所以你的優勢並不來自於正確。

  • Your edge comes with being wrong small and being right big, right?

    你的優勢來自於錯的小,對的大,對嗎?

  • Taking the right trades where you're going to lose very little if you're wrong and when you have a ton of upside so that 10 great trades in a year can invalidate 200 mrs right?

    在正確的交易中,如果你錯了,你的損失會很小,而且你有大量的上升空間,這樣,一年中10次偉大的交易就可以使200個Mrs失效,對嗎?

  • And so once you program yourself to realize you weren't, It doesn't matter if you're wrong.

    是以,一旦你為自己編程,意識到你沒有,那麼即使你錯了也無所謂。

  • It was just, you took a small loss and your next one will pay for it or your 10th one will pay for it.

    只是,你吃了點小虧,你的下一個人將會為此付出代價,或者你的第十個人將會為此付出代價。

  • It really starts to change the way you approach the market.

    它真的開始改變你接近市場的方式。

  • Yeah, that's powerful.

    是的,這很強大。

  • I like that entering at a better level and it's the, it's when people get cleaned out, it's that one time they didn't stay disciplined and don't have the stop right, correct.

    我喜歡在一個更好的水準上進入,這是,當人們被清理出來時,這是一次他們沒有保持紀律,沒有停止的權利,正確。

  • You lose your entire stack on one trade because you get liquidated and move your stop loss.

    你在一次交易中失去了你的全部資金,因為你被清算並移動了你的止損。

  • Are you, are you or are you revenge traded?

    你是,你還是,你是在報復性交易?

  • That's the other one, right?

    那是另一個人,對嗎?

  • Your stop loss does hit and then you enter immediately again because you feel like you were wrong, which is the same thing, is not using a stop loss.

    你的止損確實擊中了,然後你又立即進入,因為你覺得你錯了,這是同樣的事情,是沒有使用止損的。

  • Revenge trading was my biggest problem as a trader in the early days because I hated being wrong.

    在早期,報復性交易是我作為交易員的最大問題,因為我痛恨自己的錯誤。

  • I got pissed off and I came right back in and it turns out I was actually right to have my stop loss and take that loss because that was a good plant that I had before, I was emotional and revenge trading over and over again.

    我生氣了,我馬上回來了,結果發現我的止損和承擔這個損失實際上是正確的,因為那是我之前的一個好工廠,我是情緒化的,一次又一次的報復性交易。

  • You just basically taking the same loss of the same trade, banging your head against the wall.

    你只是基本上拿著同樣的交易損失,拿著你的頭撞牆。

  • How long would you wait between getting stopped out and getting back in like hours a day?

    從被攔下到重新進入,你要等多久,比如每天幾個小時?

  • It could be moment.

    這可能是時刻。

  • I mean, it could be literally within an hour, certainly days.

    我的意思是,這可能是在一個小時內,當然是幾天內。

  • I came up with a rule for myself and people need rules.

    我為自己想出了一個規則,人們需要規則。

  • You need to know yourself and come up with rules and I share this with people all the time.

    你需要了解自己,並提出規則,我一直在與人們分享這一點。

  • Very difficult for me now because I'm doing so much analysis for other people.

    現在對我來說非常困難,因為我為別人做了那麼多的分析。

  • Um, but if I any trade that closed whether profitable or at a loss, I closed that chart for 24 hours and don't look at it Like a firm rule that I'm not allowed to even utter the name of that asset for 24 hours.

    嗯,但如果我的任何交易結束了,不管是盈利還是虧損,我都會關閉該圖表24小時,並且不看它,像一個堅定的規則,我甚至不允許在24小時內說出該資產的名稱。

  • Right?

    對嗎?

  • Very, very hard with its Bitcoin and you're looking at it all the time.

    非常非常難,因為它的比特幣,你一直在看著它。

  • But you know, and so that also prevents you from jumping back in the same thing that makes you revenge trade when you lose, makes you jump back in higher when you exit a trade for profit and think it's going to continue going up so you buy again and lose the entire amount that you would make.

    但是你知道,所以這也防止了你在虧損時跳回同樣的東西,使你報復性交易,使你在退出交易獲利時跳回更高的位置,並認為它將繼續上漲,所以你再次買入並失去了你會賺到的全部金額。

  • That's a great rule.

    這是個很好的規則。

  • Maybe we should be longer than 24 hours.

    也許我們應該比24小時更長。

  • I guess.

    我猜。

  • It depends on what you do and you're frequently yeah.

    這取決於你做什麼,你經常耶。

  • If you're like if you're a day trader and you're only trading three or four assets, I think 24 hours is sufficient.

    如果你像如果你是一個日間交易員,你只交易三或四個資產,我認為24小時就足夠了。

  • Uh huh.

    嗯哼。

I try to explain that same thing to my students and I think, you know, you just did an eloquent job there.

我試圖向我的學生解釋同樣的事情,我認為,你知道,你剛剛做了一個雄辯的工作。

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A2 初級 中文 交易 圖表 損失 正確 規則 特幣

斯科特-梅爾克談交易時止損的重要性? (Scott Melker on The Importance of a Stop Loss When Trading ?)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 07 日
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