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  • Bitcoin is up and I was worried Scott about saying that because it might date this video, but that means this will probably be relevant for the next 10 years.

    比特幣在上漲,我很擔心斯科特說這句話,因為它可能會使這段視頻過時,但這意味著這可能會在未來10年內有意義。

  • Uh, this could be saying Bitcoin is up because we know it's going to go up and down with high volatility probably for a decade.

    呃,這可能是說比特幣上漲了,因為我們知道它將以高波動性上漲和下跌,可能持續十年。

  • You could argue the volatility might drop and other coins might take over that volatility.

    你可以說,波動性可能會下降,而其他硬幣可能會接管這種波動性。

  • But we're in one of those kind of crazy upswings right now, which brings a very different kind of emotions than the down swings.

    但我們現在正處於那種瘋狂的上升期,這帶來了與下降期非常不同的情緒。

  • I potentially think it's more dangerous as a new traitor.

    我潛在地認為,作為一個新的叛徒,它更危險。

  • I call it the, I got married in Vegas syndrome where you end up making poor decisions, you know, in the Good Times, the 20th shot of Tequila, the tattoo that you can't even read versus the, I got so depressed, I jumped off the bridge type scenarios um, what do you observe about traders in these uptick times that you try to remind your followers on twitter to maybe just think of differently than say, the bear markets that we've seen in a few months ago in a few years ago, DJ for 20 years, I have my share of Bad Vegas decisions and bad trading decisions as well.

    我稱之為 "我在拉斯維加斯結婚綜合症",你最終做出了錯誤的決定,你知道,在美好的時代,第20杯龍舌蘭酒,你甚至不能閱讀的紋身與我如此沮喪,我跳下了橋的類型場景相比,嗯。你在這些上升期觀察到了什麼,你試圖在twitter上提醒你的追隨者,也許只是以不同的方式思考,比方說,我們在幾個月前和幾年前看到的低迷的市場,DJ 20年來,我有我的份額,壞賭城的決定和壞交易決定。

  • So I can definitely speak to this, I think that you're absolutely right.

    所以我絕對可以說到這一點,我認為你是完全正確的。

  • Um, but that what you're describing at the dead bottom and towards the top are two sides of the same point right there.

    嗯,但是你在死衚衕裡描述的東西和朝上的東西是同一個點的兩邊。

  • The extremes of human emotion, it's fear and greed, but effectively it makes you do the same things right, which is make irrational decisions based on your emotions and that's what you want to avoid.

    人類情感的極端,它是恐懼和貪婪,但實際上它使你做同樣的事情是正確的,也就是根據你的情感做出非理性的決定,而這正是你想要避免的。

  • So it's foam.

    所以它是保麗龍。

  • Oh, as we call it in this market, obviously fear of missing out.

    哦,正如我們在這個市場上所說的,顯然是害怕錯過。

  • The higher the price goes, the more you want, the asset.

    價格越高,你想要的就越多,資產。

  • I'm sure not anecdotally that you've had many conversations where you told someone they should maybe think about buying Bitcoin to 10,000 and they weren't interested and then called you and it was 60 and told you they were buying, Right.

    我相信不是軼事,你有很多對話,你告訴別人他們也許應該考慮購買比特幣到1萬,他們不感興趣,然後打電話給你,是60,告訴你他們要買,對。

  • Um, and that's, that's that same emotional reaction to seeing something go up, believing that every time it goes up, that means it's going to go up this much further and buying it.

    嗯,那是,那是那種看到東西上漲的情緒反應,相信它每次上漲,就意味著它將進一步上漲這麼多,並買下它。

  • So what I would say to new traders, if you do insist on trading is control your emotions.

    所以我想對新的交易員說的是,如果你真的堅持交易,那就是控制你的情緒。

  • It's almost impossible.

    這幾乎是不可能的。

  • By the way, that's the steel that I would say 95% of traders lack.

    順便說一句,這就是我要說的95%的交易員所缺乏的鋼鐵。

  • And that's why they say 95% of traders based on studies generally, you cannot even beat simply buying a market index and sitting on your hands.

    而這就是為什麼他們說95%的交易員根據研究一般,你甚至不能戰勝簡單地購買市場指數和坐享其成。

  • Um, but it's that control of the emotions on both sides, I don't know if it's more or less dangerous.

    嗯,但這是對雙方情緒的控制,我不知道它是更危險還是更不危險。

  • It's certainly more dangerous if you're a buyer, but there's nothing worse than selling the dead bottom right before a bear bear market ends and goes up, right?

    如果你是買家,這當然更危險,但沒有什麼比在低迷的市場結束和上漲前賣出死底更糟糕的了,對嗎?

  • I know a lot of people who sold bit, 20 30,000 Within a month, you know, and now we're looking at $47, Bitcoin as we're, as we're recording this.

    我知道有很多人在一個月內賣出了2、3萬個比特幣,你知道,現在我們正在看47美元,比特幣,因為我們正在記錄這個。

  • So I would say that it's about controlling emotions and when prices rocketing up, you switch your mentality to maybe I'll miss it.

    所以我想說,這是關於控制情緒的問題,當價格扶搖直上時,你把心態轉換為也許我會錯過它。

  • And that's okay.

    這也沒關係。

  • As a trader, you're still dollar cost averaging is an investor, but as a trader maybe I'll miss it.

    作為一個交易員,你仍然是美元成本平均法是一個投資者,但作為一個交易員,也許我會錯過它。

  • But these are the areas of support if you're using charts where I would be interested.

    但這些是支持的領域,如果你使用的是圖表,我會感興趣。

  • So buying the dip, basically, you change your mentality to buying the dip and selling the rip as opposed to the opposite.

    是以,買入跌勢,基本上,你改變了你的心態,買入跌勢,賣出漲勢,而不是相反。

  • So you look for those opportunities when price comes down a bit, but you still believe that the bull run is intact and that's where you, that's where you place your bids.

    是以,當價格稍有回落時,你要尋找這些機會,但你仍然相信牛市運行是完整的,這就是你,這就是你出價的地方。

  • Yeah, I mean, you hit it on the, on the head there.

    是的,我的意思是,你擊中了它,在那裡的頭。

  • Trading is all about controlling your emotions, but it's easier said than done, uh, much easier said than done and that fear of missing out.

    交易是關於控制你的情緒,但說起來容易做起來難,呃,說起來容易做起來難,還有那種害怕錯過的感覺。

  • It's just that natural human instinct.

    這只是人類的自然本能。

  • I remember, um, my first job was on Wall Street in 1993.

    我記得,嗯,我的第一份工作是在1993年在華爾街。

  • I got hired there right out of engineering degree and they gave me phones to the board of trade and the mercantile exchange and I was trading government bonds and interest rate swaps.

    我從工程學位畢業後就被僱用到那裡,他們給了我貿易委員會和商業交易所的電話,我在交易政府債券和利率掉期。

  • And, but no one taught me the mentality of trading and I soon realized that they told me to buy low and sell high, we were trying derivatives.

    而且,但沒有人教我交易的心態,我很快意識到,他們告訴我低買高賣,我們是在嘗試衍生品。

  • So we could sell high and buy low.

    所以我們可以高賣低買。

  • But the natural human instinct strangely enough is to buy high and sell low, right fear of missing out.

    但奇怪的是,人類的自然本能是高買低賣,就怕錯過。

  • Um, and then, you know, selling on those lows when it's actually the time to take a breath and just look at those long term averages, right, go listen to, you know, Raul paul for a bit or take a step back and just think about the long term aspect of that.

    嗯,然後,你知道,在那些低點上賣出,當它實際上是喘息的時候,只是看看那些長期的平均數,對,去聽一下,你知道,勞爾-保羅,或者退一步,只是想想長期的方面。

  • And yeah, that's not what we do.

    是的,這不是我們的工作。

  • Um it's very difficult to kind of control those emotions, but that's what we see.

    嗯......控制這些情緒是非常困難的,但這就是我們看到的。

  • And one final thing you said there, which is interesting, The person that doesn't listen to a 10,000 calls you at 60.

    你在那裡說的最後一件事,很有意思,不聽一萬句的人在60歲時給你打電話。

  • I remember in 1999 I was in new york city and the dot com boom, I was the CFO of a startup and the taxi drivers, I don't, if you remember we're trading internet stocks and I was like, what are you talking about?

    我記得在1999年,我在紐約市和互聯網熱潮中,我是一家創業公司的首席財務官,計程車司機,我不,如果你記得我們正在交易互聯網股票,我當時想,你在談論什麼?

  • It was crazy.

    這很瘋狂。

  • But if you remember when Bitcoin was hitting its highs last time, you know, Aunt Margaret was all of a sudden trading Bitcoin and that's when sometimes, you know, it's maybe overbought, Is that a sign that you account for?

    但如果你記得上次比特幣達到高點的時候,你知道,瑪格麗特阿姨突然就開始交易比特幣了,那時候有時候,你知道,它可能超買了,這是你佔的一個信號嗎?

  • I talk about this all the time mainstream is the greatest counter indicator, right?

    我一直在談論這個問題,主流是最大的反面指標,對嗎?

  • And when your family members and your cab driver and the guy who's cutting your hair, start asking you about coins and mispronouncing them at the very top my barber actually asked me if I owned any urine three um, your ethereum right obviously meaning ethereum and I said, well that could be a good signal where at the top, but I was screaming about this as a perfect example a few months ago when Elon musk went on saturday night live and everybody was asking me if they should buy does because he was going to pump goes on saturday night live and I said, this is going to arguably be, I can't predict the future, but my prediction, I think this will be the greatest by the buy the rumor, sell the news event in the history and that was the dead top obviously of dash one, which is probably the best example I have ever seen of retail foam.

    當你的家人、你的計程車司機和給你理髮的人開始問你關於硬幣的問題,並在最上面把它們讀錯,我的理髮師實際上問我是否擁有任何尿三嗯,你的以太坊,顯然是指以太坊,我說,這可能是一個好的信號,在頂部。但是,幾個月前,當埃隆-馬斯克上週六晚上的直播節目時,我對這個問題大喊大叫,作為一個完美的例子,每個人都在問我,他們是否應該購買,因為他將在週六晚上的直播中抽水,我說,這將可以說是,我不能預測未來,但我的預測,我認為這將是歷史上最偉大的買入謠言,賣出新聞事件,這顯然是衝一的死頂,這可能是我見過的零售保麗龍的最佳例子。

  • Oh and the opportunity to get out right at the top at a very obvious moment.

    哦,還有在一個非常明顯的時刻,就在頂部出手的機會。

  • What's interesting is something that you said is that, you know, they teach you to buy low and sell high.

    有趣的是,你說的一些話是,你知道,他們教你低買高賣。

  • And I've always made the argument that that statement should be revised to buy, sell higher right?

    而我一直提出的論點是,這句話應該修改為買入,賣高對嗎?

  • Because giving the expectation of buying low and selling high gives people the mental the belief that they should be looking for the bottom and the top and if you're a trader actually the momentum is in the middle and that's where the meat is for for your trades.

    因為給人以低買高賣的期望,使人們在心理上認為他們應該尋找底部和頂部,如果你是一個交易員,實際上勢頭是在中間,那是你的交易的肉所在。

  • So you don't try to buy the bottom, You look for the To come in and then a confirmation of the bottom which maybe 10, higher when it flips a key level back to support and then you buy and you don't try to find the dead top.

    是以,你不要試圖買入底部,你要尋找底部,然後確認底部,也許是10,更高的底部,當它翻轉一個關鍵水準回到支持,然後你買入,你不要試圖找到死頂。

  • You exit somewhere reasonably ahead where you make money.

    你在某個合理的地方退出,在那裡你可以賺錢。

  • So listen if you're buying amazon stock, if you're investing in a market and you have a really long term trade and you know that it's likely to trend up by and still higher.

    所以聽著,如果你買了亞馬遜的股票,如果你在一個市場上投資,而且你有一個真正的長期交易,你知道它可能會有上升的趨勢,而且還會更高。

  • You don't have to buy the bottom.

    你不需要買底。

  • And the idea of bylaw sell high makes everyone feel like they've missed out.

    而附律賣高的想法讓大家覺得自己錯過了。

  • If you tell someone to buy Bitcoin low and sell higher, they're never going to buy because low to them may have been 1000 or 10,000 or 20,000 or 30,000.

    如果你告訴別人低價買入比特幣,高價賣出,他們永遠不會買,因為對他們來說,低價可能是1000或10000或20000或30000。

  • Uh huh.

    嗯哼。

Bitcoin is up and I was worried Scott about saying that because it might date this video, but that means this will probably be relevant for the next 10 years.

比特幣在上漲,我很擔心斯科特說這句話,因為它可能會使這段視頻過時,但這意味著這可能會在未來10年內有意義。

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斯科特-梅爾克談交易時人類情緒的極端性? (Scott Melker on The Extremes Of Human Emotion When Trading ?)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 06 日
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