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  • Bitcoin is up and I was worried Scott about saying that because it might date this video, but that means this will probably be relevant for the next 10 years.


  • Uh, this could be saying Bitcoin is up because we know it's going to go up and down with high volatility probably for a decade.


  • You could argue the volatility might drop and other coins might take over that volatility.


  • But we're in one of those kind of crazy upswings right now, which brings a very different kind of emotions than the down swings.


  • I potentially think it's more dangerous as a new traitor.


  • I call it the, I got married in Vegas syndrome where you end up making poor decisions, you know, in the Good Times, the 20th shot of Tequila, the tattoo that you can't even read versus the, I got so depressed, I jumped off the bridge type scenarios um, what do you observe about traders in these uptick times that you try to remind your followers on twitter to maybe just think of differently than say, the bear markets that we've seen in a few months ago in a few years ago, DJ for 20 years, I have my share of Bad Vegas decisions and bad trading decisions as well.

    我稱之為 "我在拉斯維加斯結婚綜合症",你最終做出了錯誤的決定,你知道,在美好的時代,第20杯龍舌蘭酒,你甚至不能閱讀的紋身與我如此沮喪,我跳下了橋的類型場景相比,嗯。你在這些上升期觀察到了什麼,你試圖在twitter上提醒你的追隨者,也許只是以不同的方式思考,比方說,我們在幾個月前和幾年前看到的低迷的市場,DJ 20年來,我有我的份額,壞賭城的決定和壞交易決定。

  • So I can definitely speak to this, I think that you're absolutely right.


  • Um, but that what you're describing at the dead bottom and towards the top are two sides of the same point right there.


  • The extremes of human emotion, it's fear and greed, but effectively it makes you do the same things right, which is make irrational decisions based on your emotions and that's what you want to avoid.


  • So it's foam.


  • Oh, as we call it in this market, obviously fear of missing out.


  • The higher the price goes, the more you want, the asset.


  • I'm sure not anecdotally that you've had many conversations where you told someone they should maybe think about buying Bitcoin to 10,000 and they weren't interested and then called you and it was 60 and told you they were buying, Right.


  • Um, and that's, that's that same emotional reaction to seeing something go up, believing that every time it goes up, that means it's going to go up this much further and buying it.


  • So what I would say to new traders, if you do insist on trading is control your emotions.


  • It's almost impossible.


  • By the way, that's the steel that I would say 95% of traders lack.


  • And that's why they say 95% of traders based on studies generally, you cannot even beat simply buying a market index and sitting on your hands.


  • Um, but it's that control of the emotions on both sides, I don't know if it's more or less dangerous.


  • It's certainly more dangerous if you're a buyer, but there's nothing worse than selling the dead bottom right before a bear bear market ends and goes up, right?


  • I know a lot of people who sold bit, 20 30,000 Within a month, you know, and now we're looking at $47, Bitcoin as we're, as we're recording this.


  • So I would say that it's about controlling emotions and when prices rocketing up, you switch your mentality to maybe I'll miss it.


  • And that's okay.


  • As a trader, you're still dollar cost averaging is an investor, but as a trader maybe I'll miss it.


  • But these are the areas of support if you're using charts where I would be interested.


  • So buying the dip, basically, you change your mentality to buying the dip and selling the rip as opposed to the opposite.


  • So you look for those opportunities when price comes down a bit, but you still believe that the bull run is intact and that's where you, that's where you place your bids.


  • Yeah, I mean, you hit it on the, on the head there.


  • Trading is all about controlling your emotions, but it's easier said than done, uh, much easier said than done and that fear of missing out.


  • It's just that natural human instinct.


  • I remember, um, my first job was on Wall Street in 1993.


  • I got hired there right out of engineering degree and they gave me phones to the board of trade and the mercantile exchange and I was trading government bonds and interest rate swaps.


  • And, but no one taught me the mentality of trading and I soon realized that they told me to buy low and sell high, we were trying derivatives.


  • So we could sell high and buy low.


  • But the natural human instinct strangely enough is to buy high and sell low, right fear of missing out.


  • Um, and then, you know, selling on those lows when it's actually the time to take a breath and just look at those long term averages, right, go listen to, you know, Raul paul for a bit or take a step back and just think about the long term aspect of that.


  • And yeah, that's not what we do.


  • Um it's very difficult to kind of control those emotions, but that's what we see.


  • And one final thing you said there, which is interesting, The person that doesn't listen to a 10,000 calls you at 60.


  • I remember in 1999 I was in new york city and the dot com boom, I was the CFO of a startup and the taxi drivers, I don't, if you remember we're trading internet stocks and I was like, what are you talking about?


  • It was crazy.


  • But if you remember when Bitcoin was hitting its highs last time, you know, Aunt Margaret was all of a sudden trading Bitcoin and that's when sometimes, you know, it's maybe overbought, Is that a sign that you account for?


  • I talk about this all the time mainstream is the greatest counter indicator, right?


  • And when your family members and your cab driver and the guy who's cutting your hair, start asking you about coins and mispronouncing them at the very top my barber actually asked me if I owned any urine three um, your ethereum right obviously meaning ethereum and I said, well that could be a good signal where at the top, but I was screaming about this as a perfect example a few months ago when Elon musk went on saturday night live and everybody was asking me if they should buy does because he was going to pump goes on saturday night live and I said, this is going to arguably be, I can't predict the future, but my prediction, I think this will be the greatest by the buy the rumor, sell the news event in the history and that was the dead top obviously of dash one, which is probably the best example I have ever seen of retail foam.


  • Oh and the opportunity to get out right at the top at a very obvious moment.


  • What's interesting is something that you said is that, you know, they teach you to buy low and sell high.


  • And I've always made the argument that that statement should be revised to buy, sell higher right?


  • Because giving the expectation of buying low and selling high gives people the mental the belief that they should be looking for the bottom and the top and if you're a trader actually the momentum is in the middle and that's where the meat is for for your trades.


  • So you don't try to buy the bottom, You look for the To come in and then a confirmation of the bottom which maybe 10, higher when it flips a key level back to support and then you buy and you don't try to find the dead top.


  • You exit somewhere reasonably ahead where you make money.


  • So listen if you're buying amazon stock, if you're investing in a market and you have a really long term trade and you know that it's likely to trend up by and still higher.


  • You don't have to buy the bottom.


  • And the idea of bylaw sell high makes everyone feel like they've missed out.


  • If you tell someone to buy Bitcoin low and sell higher, they're never going to buy because low to them may have been 1000 or 10,000 or 20,000 or 30,000.


  • Uh huh.


Bitcoin is up and I was worried Scott about saying that because it might date this video, but that means this will probably be relevant for the next 10 years.



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斯科特-梅爾克談交易時人類情緒的極端性? (Scott Melker on The Extremes Of Human Emotion When Trading ?)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 06 日