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  • let's talk about Bitcoin because you put out some pretty interesting, you know, ideas about first when you started looking at it, I think you saw this incredible linear correlation or log arrhythmic correlation between simply the number of users and the price uh regardless of anything else.

    讓我們來談談比特幣,因為你提出了一些非常有趣的想法,你知道,當你開始關注它的時候,我想你看到了這種令人難以置信的線性相關或對數節奏的相關,僅僅是用戶的數量和價格之間的關係,呃,不管其他的。

  • And I've seen some of the presentations you put out that I think are probably available on your Pantera website where you tracked simply the adoption rate versus price and found this incredible correlation.

    我看過你的一些報告,我想在你的Pantera網站上可能有,你簡單地跟蹤了採用率與價格的關係,發現了這種令人難以置信的關聯。

  • And then on the back of that also predicted some potential forward price points for Bitcoin.

    然後在此基礎上還預測了比特幣的一些潛在遠期價格點。

  • Can you talk about that idea?

    你能談一下這個想法嗎?

  • And then when you first realized that?

    然後當你第一次意識到這一點時?

  • Yeah, so there's, you know, there's a lot of reticence about uh Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies because they don't have cash flows.

    是的,所以有,你知道,有很多人對呃比特幣和其他加密貨幣持保留態度,因為它們沒有現金流。

  • And I had a fun conversation with a tiger cub friend of mine that's TMT investor and said they don't invest in Bitcoin because there's no cash flows to discount.

    我和我一個做TMT投資的小老虎朋友進行了一次有趣的談話,他說他們不投資比特幣,因為沒有現金流可以折現。

  • And I was like well there's no cash flows to the euro and nobody thinks twice about trading the euro.

    我當時想,歐元沒有現金流,沒有人對歐元交易有什麼想法。

  • There's information about interest rates and current account deficits and things like that.

    有關於利率和經常賬戶赤字以及諸如此類的資訊。

  • That helped me decide where you want to be long or short euro.

    這有助於我決定你想在哪裡做多或做空歐元。

  • That's the same with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, all kinds of information, how many transactions are happening.

    這與比特幣和其他加密貨幣是一樣的,各種資訊,有多少交易正在發生。

  • Many people are using it.

    許多人正在使用它。

  • The simple concept though is just supply and demand.

    雖然簡單的概念只是供應和需求。

  • Uh you know as I said, it's going to be a serial killers can go through all kinds of different use cases.

    呃,你知道正如我說的,這將是一個連環殺手可以通過各種不同的使用情況。

  • Um and every year picks up more people that find another use case, find something they want to do it with Bitcoin.

    嗯,每年都會有更多的人找到另一個用例,找到他們想用比特幣做的事情。

  • And we did publish a table that has a number of people using Bitcoin.

    而我們確實發佈了一個表格,上面有一些使用比特幣的人。

  • Uh and that's coming up in order of magnitude every two years and we're now at about 100 million people using Bitcoin um in 2013 there's about 300,000 people using it when when I got started and obviously there's only a handful in 2009 when it was released.

    呃,每兩年就會有一個數量級的增長,我們現在大約有1億人在使用比特幣,嗯,在2013年,當我開始的時候,大約有30萬人在使用它,顯然,在2009年它被髮布的時候,只有少數人在使用。

  • Uh and the really wild things, if you then put next to that, the price of Bitcoin in each of those two years, it has also gone up exactly one order of magnitude exactly every two years.

    呃,真正瘋狂的是,如果你再把它放在旁邊,比特幣的價格在這兩年中的每一年,它也正好每兩年上升一個數量級。

  • And I've never seen a relationship between two pieces of data.

    而且我從來沒有見過兩個數據之間的關係。

  • That's that crazy in terms of going up five decimal points.

    就小數點後五位數的上升而言,這就是那麼瘋狂。

  • Uh and also maintaining the exact same ratio is the ratio is $200 per million people using Bitcoin.

    呃,還保持完全相同的比例是,每百萬人使用比特幣的比例是200美元。

  • That was true.

    那是真的。

  • In the 10,000 people using Bitcoin is true.

    在使用比特幣的10,000人中是真的。

  • Two million people using Bitcoin has been true.

    兩百萬人使用比特幣已經是事實。

  • 100 million people using Bitcoin and that is a framework that makes some sense.

    1億人使用比特幣,這就是一個有一定意義的框架。

  • The more people who want to use it for whatever they're doing with it, you know, the more it's worth.

    想用它來做什麼的人越多,你知道,它的價值就越大。

  • I found in my time in the industry, the kind of, the stickiness rate is massive.

    我發現在我從事這個行業的時候,那種,粘性率是巨大的。

  • It might take people five or 10 years to get their head around it, but once they buy Bitcoin or other cryptic crisis almost never want to sell it.

    人們可能需要花5年或10年的時間來了解它,但一旦他們購買了比特幣或其他加密危機,幾乎永遠不會想賣掉它。

  • And that's why the prices keep going up because there's very few people that ever want to part with it.

    這就是為什麼價格不斷上漲,因為很少有人願意放棄它。

  • And you know every year you try and you know you convinced another cohort people to come in.

    你知道每年你都在努力,你知道你說服了另一批人進來。

  • So if you extrapolate that out, There's 3.5 billion people on earth with a smartphone, only a bit more than people that currently use Facebook.

    是以,如果你推斷出來,地球上有35億人擁有智能手機,只比目前使用Facebook的人多一點。

  • If all those people started using Cryptocurrency and that relationship hell which passed doesn't have to predict the future.

    如果所有這些人都開始使用加密貨幣和那個關係地獄,而這個關係地獄通過了,就不必預測未來。

  • But it seems solid.

    但它似乎很牢固。

  • That's $700,000 per Bitcoin.

    每個比特幣就是70萬美元。

  • And while I'm not going to say I've met my entire life savings exactly 700,000.

    雖然我不會說我已經滿足了我的整個生活儲蓄正好70萬。

  • And some specific date in the future, it really helps to point out the massive ace in the tree of this trade.

    而在未來的某個特定日期,它真的有助於指出這個交易的巨大王牌。

  • It's definitely risky.

    這絕對是有風險的。

  • You know, Bitcoin went down 55% of the last couple of months.

    你知道,比特幣在過去幾個月裡下跌了55%。

  • So there's definitely a ton of risk in the industry.

    是以,這個行業肯定有大量的風險。

  • But um you really can only lose one time with your money and being long something.

    但嗯,你的錢和做多的東西真的只能輸一次。

  • And if it has the possibility of going up in order of magnitude um you know, it's a good risk adjusted trade.

    如果它有可能在數量級上上升,嗯,你知道,這是一個很好的風險調整交易。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • And the order of magnitude is 10 X.

    而這個數量級是10X。

  • For anybody who hasn't probably that engineering background or science um have you ever seen an asset like this?

    對於任何沒有可能有工程背景或科學背景的人來說,嗯,你見過這樣的資產嗎?

  • And again, I think at bankers trust you were doing some global stuff.

    再說一遍,我認為在銀行家信託基金,你正在做一些全球性的事情。

  • So you really have seen everything, you've been in Tokyo, you traded probably currencies, mortgages, uh probably equity is everything under the sun.

    所以你真的什麼都見過了,你去過東京,你交易的可能是貨幣,抵押貸款,呃可能是股權是太陽下的一切。

  • Have you ever seen an instrument like this or with the volatility or even with that?

    你見過像這樣的儀器嗎?或者有波動性,甚至有這樣的儀器嗎?

  • Asymmetry.

    不對稱性。

  • Yeah, I did spend 25 years to one around the earth looking for trades like this big disruptions.

    是的,我確實花了25年的時間來一繞地球尋找像這樣大的中斷的交易。

  • Also when I was a tiger management we invested in a lot of big disruptions around the world.

    另外,當我是一個老虎管理的時候,我們在世界各地投資了很多大的破壞性項目。

  • And so you know, I was in Russia when Gorbachev was doing glass notes and invested in gas promise further privatisations and Argentine farmland and Tesla Motors and every four or five years, something like that would come up.

    所以你知道,當戈爾巴喬夫做玻璃票據時,我在俄羅斯,投資於天然氣承諾進一步私有化和阿根廷農田和特斯拉汽車,每隔四五年,就會出現類似的事情。

  • This is just so much bigger than all those.

    這只是比所有這些大得多。

  • Um it is, you know, all those things were regional or country specific.

    嗯,它是,你知道,所有這些東西都是地區或國家特定的。

  • You know some kind of interesting dislocation just in that one country that one region and infected maybe just one market may be just the equity market or maybe just the bond market in spain when they had their devaluation.

    你知道僅僅在一個國家、一個地區出現了一些有趣的錯位,並且感染了可能只是一個市場,可能只是股票市場,或者可能只是西班牙的債券市場,當他們出現貶值時。

  • So you know all those trades, they were great traits but they're very kind of localized or specific.

    是以,你知道所有這些行業,它們是偉大的特徵,但它們是非常樣的本地化或具體化。

  • This is so many different use cases globally and all those are literally the biggest things on earth, well storage coal, even money MTs under trillion.

    這是全球這麼多不同的用例,所有這些簡直是地球上最大的東西,好比儲存煤炭,甚至萬億以下的貨幣MT。

  • All those markets are the biggest markets on earth.

    所有這些市場都是地球上最大的市場。

  • So it's I think it's a once in a lifetime type trade and that's why you know, we went all in and It hasn't slowed down.

    是以,我認為這是一生中只有一次的交易,這就是為什麼你知道,我們全力以赴,而且還沒有放慢速度。

  • You know, I really think we have another 10 or 20 years ago.

    你知道,我真的認為我們還有10或20年的時間。

  • So, um, you know, I think it is at once a lifetime trade and every time I meet some, you know, college kid, just thinking about what to do next Blockchain, I just say, hey, do this and three years from now, if I'm wrong, you know, you did something kind of interesting, you know, it didn't work and you move on to something different, but you know, from even half right about how important Blockchain will be, it's the right place to be.

    所以,嗯,你知道,我認為這是一次終生的交易,每次我遇到一些,你知道,大學生,只是考慮下一步做什麼區塊鏈,我只是說,嘿,做這個,三年後,如果我錯了,你知道,你做了一種有趣的事情,你知道,它沒有工作,你繼續做不同的事情,但你知道,從甚至一半正確的區塊鏈將是多麼重要,這是正確的地方。

  • And so, you know, I do think Blockchain is the trade of a lifetime.

    所以,你知道,我確實認為區塊鏈是一生的交易。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

let's talk about Bitcoin because you put out some pretty interesting, you know, ideas about first when you started looking at it, I think you saw this incredible linear correlation or log arrhythmic correlation between simply the number of users and the price uh regardless of anything else.

讓我們來談談比特幣,因為你提出了一些非常有趣的想法,你知道,當你開始關注它的時候,我想你看到了這種令人難以置信的線性相關或對數節奏的相關,僅僅是用戶的數量和價格之間的關係,呃,不管其他的。

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丹-莫赫德談比特幣的未來? (Dan Morehead On The Future Of Bitcoin ?)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 02 日
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