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  • just final thoughts, Michael, I know you said a few months ago, people should mortgage their house and buy Bitcoin.

    只是最後的想法,邁克爾,我知道你在幾個月前說過,人們應該抵押他們的房子,購買比特幣。

  • Do you still feel that way?

    你還會有這種感覺嗎?

  • And just final thoughts for people that have uh that have joined us for the last couple hours?

    對於在過去幾個小時里加入我們的人來說,只是最後的想法?

  • To be clear, my view here is is uh If you're in a monetary environment where the money supply is expanding at more than 15% a year And you can borrow money at 2% interest or 3% interest and you can buy something a tangible value that is not being debased or inflated away.

    說白了,我的觀點是,如果你處在一個貨幣環境中,貨幣供應量以每年15%以上的速度擴張,你可以以2%或3%的利息借到錢,你可以買到有形價值的東西,不會被貶值或膨脹掉。

  • It's probably a wise idea if you bought, if you buy a house and you pay 2.5% mortgage on the house, and if the house is going up in value 25% a year, the time to buy the house is not next year, it's last year, Right?

    如果你買了,可能是一個明智的想法,如果你買了一個房子,你為房子支付2.5%的抵押貸款,如果房子每年升值25%,買房子的時間不是明年,是去年,對嗎?

  • So, and the same is true of you if you had bought, if you if you borrowed money at 200% interest a year ago and bought the S.

    所以,如果你買了,如果你如果一年前以200%的利息借錢買了S,也是一樣的。

  • & P.

    & P.

  • Index, it went up 37%.

    指數,它上漲了37%。

  • So the generic observation is when you can borrow money that is not marked to market for long durations for next to nothing.

    是以,一般的觀察是,當你能以幾乎沒有的價格借到沒有標價的長期資金。

  • If you have a use of proceeds that you're confident in, Then it's a good idea borrowing money at 2% interest to buy something that is going to go up in value, anything north of 5% is arbitrage.

    如果你對收益的用途有信心,那麼以2%的利息借錢購買會升值的東西是個好主意,任何超過5%的都是套利。

  • So I would say in general it seems wise to me to hold tangible assets and let them appreciate in value as the money printer goes birth and not pay off your mortgage.

    所以我想說,一般來說,我認為持有有形資產並讓它們隨著印鈔機的誕生而升值,而不是償還你的抵押貸款是明智的。

  • If you believe in Bitcoin then yeah.

    如果你相信比特幣,那麼是的。

  • Um If you if you didn't if you have $1 million dollars a Bitcoin and you sell it In order to pay off your mortgage, what you did is you gave up an asset that was going on 280% a year.

    如果你沒有,如果你有100萬美元的比特幣,你賣掉它以償還你的抵押貸款,你所做的是你放棄了一個每年280%的資產。

  • And let's just say it's going up 20% of your, let's be very conservative.

    我們就說它要比你的,讓我們非常保守的,上升20%。

  • Let's just go to 10% of you're selling the asset going up 10% a year in order to loan a million dollars to the bank and the bank is paying you 2.5% interest on it.

    我們就把你賣掉的資產每年上漲10%,以便向銀行貸款100萬美元,銀行付給你2.5%的利息。

  • And the Federal Reserve is going to increase the money supply by 20%.

    而美聯儲將增加20%的貨幣供應。

  • So it doesn't make sense to pay off your mortgage.

    所以還清抵押貸款是沒有意義的。

  • If you have one you should have you should be long.

    如果你有一個你應該有的你應該是長的。

  • That my general view on debt is you don't want to have short term market margin debt.

    我對債務的一般看法是,你不希望有短期的市場保證金債務。

  • Like don't go and buy Crypto assets are Bitcoin on 10 to 1 margin that's marked the market because you might get forced liquidated in an afternoon and lose everything.

    比如不要以10比1的保證金買入標價為市場的加密貨幣資產--比特幣,因為你可能在一個下午就被強制清算,失去一切。

  • But The most subsidized debt in the world is mortgage debt.

    但是,世界上得到補貼最多的債務是抵押貸款債務。

  • The US government lies $40 billion mortgage-backed securities every month and they're keeping mortgage rates artificially low.

    美國政府每月謊稱有400億美元的抵押貸款支持證券,它們使抵押貸款利率被人為地壓低。

  • And so if you're paying off your mortgage debt you're basically holding cash.

    是以,如果你正在償還你的抵押貸款債務,你基本上是持有現金。

  • You're basically taking $1 million federal reserve is debasing and devaluing a 20% a year, 30% a year.

    你基本上是拿著100萬美元的美聯儲在貶值,一年貶值20%,一年貶值30%。

  • And so the only way to get ahead of that is split pit borrow a million dollars at 2% a year and then buy something which will hold its value and as to what you buy you know like obviously I believe that Bitcoin is the apex property.

    是以,領先於這一點的唯一方法是以每年2%的速度拆分借款100萬美元,然後購買能夠保值的東西,至於你買什麼,你知道的,比如很明顯,我相信比特幣是頂級財產。

  • But if you don't agree with me study for 100 hours that you still don't agree with me study 1000 hours.

    但如果你不同意我學習100個小時那你還是不同意我學習1000個小時。

  • If you don't have time to study for 100 or 1000 hours, then forget about Bitcoin.

    如果你沒有時間學習100或1000個小時,那就忘了比特幣吧。

  • The next apex property is a piece of real estate that you're going to use for the rest of your life, right?

    下一個頂點房產是一塊你要用一輩子的房地產,對嗎?

  • And then the next apex property is a trophy asset that you think a wealthy person will want to buy off you in a decade.

    然後下一個頂點財產是一個戰利品資產,你認為十年後會有一個富人想從你這裡買走。

  • Ask yourself the question, what is it?

    問自己一個問題,它是什麼?

  • I can buy that someone with money and education will want to buy from me in a decade and that you know that gets you to a portfolio of high quality assets.

    我可以買到的是,在十年內,有金錢和教育的人想從我這裡買東西,你知道這讓你得到了高質量的資產組合。

  • That's why people buy high growth by a digital monopoly, growing 25% a year.

    這就是為什麼人們通過數字壟斷購買高增長,每年增長25%。

  • If I had to bet on Facebook or Apple or Google vs a value stock, I would bet on Facebook, Apple and Google because they can ship a product to a billion people over the weekend for a nickel.

    如果我必須在Facebook或蘋果或谷歌與價值型股票上打賭,我會在Facebook、蘋果和谷歌上打賭,因為他們可以在週末以五分錢的價格向10億人運送產品。

  • And you know I wouldn't buy a chain of you know 20th century restaurants because they're not gonna get 20 x more efficient.

    你知道我不會買一個你知道的20世紀的連鎖餐廳,因為他們不會得到20倍的效率。

  • And also I think that's kind of common sense and that's what I think about that.

    而且我也認為這是一種常識,這就是我的想法。

  • I think everybody should figure out what's their investment strategy or their savings strategy and for your balance sheet, someone someone wants to give you death.

    我認為每個人都應該弄清楚什麼是他們的投資策略或他們的儲蓄策略,對於你的資產負債表,有人有人想給你死亡。

  • Not all debt is evil if I loaned you a billion dollars for 100 years at 0% interest which take it presumably.

    並非所有的債務都是邪惡的,如果我借給你10億美元,以0%的利息借給你100年,這就可以推測出它。

  • Right.

    對。

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Going to be irresponsible now, is it irresponsible to buy a billion dollars a Bitcoin for 100 years at 0% interest?

    現在要不負責任了,以0%的利息購買10億美元一個比特幣100年,是不是不負責任?

  • Well if you think it's a good asset, no If you don't know what it is, I think Warren Buffett said if you don't want to hold the thing for a decade for 10 years you shouldn't hold it for 10 minutes.

    好吧,如果你認為它是一個好的資產,不 如果你不知道它是什麼,我想沃倫-巴菲特說,如果你不想持有這個東西十年,你不應該持有它10分鐘。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So that's my view on that.

    所以這就是我的看法。

  • If you if you don't want to hold the thing for a decade then don't hold it for 10 minutes.

    如果你如果不想拿著這個東西十年,那麼就不要拿著它10分鐘。

  • But that's a separate question as to whether or not you take the billion dollars of debt for 0% for 100 years.

    但這是一個單獨的問題,至於你是否拿這10億美元的債務來換取100年的0%。

  • I think when someone is going to give you $30 million loan sorry 30 year loan for 2.5% interest which is what the U.

    我認為當有人要給你3000萬美元的貸款時,對不起,30年的貸款,2.5%的利息,這就是美國的情況。

  • S.

    S.

  • Rate is right now.

    率是現在。

  • It's pretty much close to free money for the rest of your life for most people depend on how old you are.

    對大多數人來說,這幾乎接近於你餘生的免費資金,這取決於你的年齡。

  • And so the losers are people that can't borrow the money.

    是以,輸家是那些無法借到錢的人。

  • Count yourself lucky you can borrow money for 30 years for two and a 1/2% interest.

    算你走運,你可以用2.5%的利息借30年的錢。

  • The losers people can't borrow the money because they have to basically hold all their cash, like what do you have any assets?

    失敗者的人不能借錢,因為他們基本上要持有所有的現金,比如你有什麼資產嗎?

  • So you're making 100 grand a year, and this year it's worth 100 grand, and next year it's worth 80 grand.

    所以你一年賺10萬,今年值10萬,明年值8萬。

  • Next year it's worth 60 grand the next year, it's worth 40 grand the next year, it's worth You know, 30 grand and I can run that, you know, that There's a Taylor series, some kind of series out for about 20 years until I get it's worth nothing, Right?

    明年它值6萬,明年它值4萬,明年它值3萬,我可以運行它,你知道,有一個泰勒系列,某種系列大約20年,直到我得到它不值錢,對嗎?

  • So if you expect to live more than 10 years If you discounted at 20% a year, you know, simple math will illustrate to you that is going to be worth nothing.

    是以,如果你期望活超過10年,如果你每年折價20%,你知道,簡單的數學會向你說明,這將是毫無價值的。

  • They're like, well, I'll end with my with my petty quote, which is the road to serfdom is working exponentially harder to earn a currency growing exponentially weaker.

    他們就像,好吧,我就用我的一句小話來結束吧,那就是通往農奴制的道路是以指數級的努力工作來賺取以指數級的疲軟的貨幣。

  • Mhm.

    嗯。

just final thoughts, Michael, I know you said a few months ago, people should mortgage their house and buy Bitcoin.

只是最後的想法,邁克爾,我知道你在幾個月前說過,人們應該抵押他們的房子,購買比特幣。

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A2 初級 中文 抵押 貸款 利息 資產 債務 特幣

邁克爾-賽勒談如何利用債務對你有利?"抵押你的房子併購買比特幣。" (Michael Saylor on How To Use Debt in Your Favour ? "Mortgage Your Home And Buy Bitcoin.")

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 07 月 28 日
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