Instead of trying to get the perfect result,

而不是試圖獲得完美的結果。

we make a fast, intelligent guess.

我們做了一個快速、明智的猜測。

Just like in baseball.

就像在棒球中一樣。

To score, we don't need to hit the ball perfectly.

為了得分，我們不需要完美地擊球。

Often we just need to keep it inside the ballpark.

很多時候，我們只需要把它保持在球場內。

The technique is useful in conversations

這種技術在對話中很有用

and is essential to passing certain tests.

並且是通過某些測試的關鍵。

To watch this video most effectively,

為了最有效地觀看這個視頻。

grab a pen and paper,

拿起筆和紙。

and try solving the following two problems as we present them.

並嘗試解決我們提出的以下兩個問題。

Just pause whenever you see this sign.

每當你看到這個標誌就暫停一下。

Let's start easy!

讓我們從簡單的開始!

What do you think is the most popular food in the world?

你認為世界上最受歡迎的食物是什麼？

Could it be Italian, Japanese,

會不會是意大利人，日本人。

American fast food, or something else?

美式快餐，還是別的什麼？

As it is impossible to get an exact answer,

因為不可能得到一個準確的答案。

let's look at what we maybe already know.

讓我們看看我們可能已經知道的情況。

In Italy, there are around 50 million people,

在意大利，大約有5000萬人口。

in Japan about 100 million

在日本約有1億人

and in North America about 500 million.

而在北美，約有5億人。

But in China or in India there lives over a billion people.

但在中國或印度，生活著十多億人。

Now we can use the process of elimination

現在我們可以使用排除法

and make a ballpark estimate that

並作出大致的估計，即

Chinese and Indian food is probably the most popular.

中國和印度食品可能是最受歡迎的。

Now let's try something a little harder.

現在我們來試試更難的東西。

Imagine that you are doing a complicated math test

想象一下，你正在做一個複雜的數學測試

for something like the GMAT exam.

對於像GMAT考試這樣的東西。

Then you might just 2 minutes to solve complex problems in your head.

那麼你可能只需2分鐘就能解決你頭腦中的複雜問題。

Maybe something like: The square root of: 5 times the square root of 24,

也許是這樣的。的平方根。5乘以24的平方根。

plus 5 divided by, 5 plus 2 times the square root of 6.

加5除以，5加2乘以6的平方根。

Then you're given five multiple choice answers:

然後給你五個多選題的答案。

A, B, C, D or E.

A、B、C、D或E。

If we would try to solve it, we would probably run out of time.

如果我們試圖解決它，我們可能會耗盡時間。

Ball-parking is now the only option.

現在，打擦邊球是唯一的選擇。

You can try it on your own

你可以自己嘗試一下

or do it with us.

或與我們一起做。

Look at the equation. Let's look the first part,

看一下這個方程式。讓我們看看第一部分。

the square root of 24.

24的平方根。

Since the square root of 24 is difficult to calculate in your head,

因為24的平方根很難在腦子裡計算出來。

think of a close enough number to the square root of 24

想出一個與24的平方根足夠接近的數字

that would be easier for you.

這對你來說會比較容易。

The square root of 25 comes to mind.

我想到了25的平方根。

To which the answer is 5.

對此，答案是5。

Let's now write down the new simpler equation

現在讓我們寫下新的更簡單的方程式

and then again even simpler.

然後又是更簡單的。

Now what about the fraction?

現在的分數是多少呢？

It looks hard, but let's try!

這看起來很難，但讓我們試試吧!

Even if we don't know what 5 plus 2 times the square root of 6 is,

即使我們不知道5加2倍的6的平方根是什麼。

we do know that it's more than 5.

我們確實知道它超過了5。

So let's write it again and just call the denominator [6.1] “more than 5”.

所以我們再寫一遍，把分母[6.1]稱為 "超過5 "就可以了。

And because 5 divided by anything larger than 5 must be smaller than 1,

而且因為5除以任何大於5的東西都必須小於1。

we can just write “25 plus less than 1

我們可以直接寫 "25加小於1

or the square root of 25.

或25的平方根。

And that equals approximately 5.

而這大約等於5。

Lets now look at the options we were given.

現在讓我們來看看我們得到的選擇。

Let's look at the equation and each possible choice.

讓我們看看這個方程和每個可能的選擇。

A is clear and doesn't look bad.

A是清晰的，看起來並不壞。

B is 5 plus 2 times the square root of 6

B是5加上6的平方根的2倍

which is something like 7 or more.

其中有7個或更多的東西。

That doesn't look right.

這看起來不對。

C is the square root of something that comes out to be 3 or less.

C是某物的平方根，得出的結果是3或更少。

That's too small.

那太小了。

What about D?

那麼D呢？

The square root of 120.

120的平方根。

We don't know that,

我們不知道這一點。

but we do know that the square root of 100 is 10.

但我們確實知道100的平方根是10。

Lets just write 10 or more.

讓我們只寫10個或更多。

That looks too high.

這看起來太高了。

Last there is E.

最後是E。

5 divided by 2 times the square root of 6.

5除以2乘以6的平方根。

Now for 2 times the square root of 6

現在是6的平方根的2倍

lets just write “more than 2”.

讓我們只寫 "超過2"。

And 5 divided by something that's more than 2

而5除以大於2的東西

also looks too small.

看起來也太小了。

Now we use the process of elimination

現在我們使用排除法

and cross out all the wrong answers to see what's left.

並劃掉所有的錯誤答案，看看還剩下什麼。

A it is.

A它是。

Now it's your turn.

現在輪到你了。

Try ball-parking the amount of views

試著估計一下瀏覽量的大小

that you think this video will have by the end of this year

你認為這段視頻在今年年底前會有什麼效果？

and win your favorite Sprouts gift on Patreon.com/Sprouts

並在Patreon.com/Sprouts上贏得你最喜歡的Sprouts禮物。

We will count all entries submitted by August 31st

我們將計算8月31日前提交的所有作品

and announce the winner on the 1st of January.

並在1月1日宣佈獲獎者。

To join, just leave your ballpark figure in the comments below.

要加入，只需在下面的評論中留下你的大概數字。

And if you want, tell us how you did it.

如果你願意，請告訴我們你是如何做到的。

Those of you who post later than August 31st

那些晚於8月31日發帖的人

will enter next year's round of Sprouts Ballpark Awards.

將進入明年的一輪Sprouts Ballpark獎。

Good luck!

好運!