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  • Maybe you can give us a little taste of what some of these things are.

    也許你可以給我們一些嚐嚐這些東西是什麼。

  • You know, quantum computing, man, Back when we got our degrees.

    你知道,量子計算,夥計, 當我們得到我們的學位,

  • I don't remember hearing that phrase.

    我不記得聽過這句話。

  • I don't think that was a thing at the time, but now it sounds like it could potentially change the game with multiple orders of magnitude faster.

    我不認為這在當時是一件事,但現在聽起來它有可能以多個數量級的速度改變遊戲。

  • I mean, how would you explain that to the layman?

    我的意思是,你怎麼向普通人解釋?

  • And what is it?

    那是什麼呢?

  • What are the implications for the future?

    對未來有什麼影響?

  • Right.

    好吧,我知道了

  • Well, when you and I were at school, I'm sure you remember the same.

    好吧,你和我上學的時候,我相信你也記得。

  • Most of the computing systems were driven off of these large mainframes.

    大部分的計算系統都是由這些大型主機驅動的。

  • You know, you had to.

    你知道,你不得不這樣做。

  • You had to get time from the computer lab to work with your code.

    你必須從計算機實驗室獲得時間來處理你的代碼。

  • It was extremely inconvenient, and it took forever for relatively simple programs to run.

    極其不方便,相對簡單的程序運行起來要花很長時間。

  • I remember sleeping overnight in the computer lab just to get my results for the next day.

    我記得我在計算機實驗室睡了一夜,就是為了第二天的成績。

  • It was truly awful.

    真的是太可怕了。

  • I'd love to go back to school.

    我很想回學校讀書。

  • Now.

    現在就去

  • For that reason the computer I'm giving bad flashbacks to the computer lab, You know, like, this is a place where people like sleep all night.

    因為這個原因,電腦我給不好的回想,電腦實驗室,你知道,就像,這是一個地方的人喜歡睡了一夜。

  • And, uh, it's one of those places.

    而且,呃,這是其中的一個地方。

  • I'd love to say they were good memories, but not really.

    我很想說那是美好的回憶,但其實不然。

  • Um, but anyway, uh, you know, today we've seen Since then we've seen this rapid progression of kind of these traditional von Neumann architecture computing systems that have been keeping pace basically with what's referred to as Moore's Law.

    嗯,但無論如何,嗯,你知道,今天我們已經看到了自那時以來,我們已經看到了這種快速發展的傳統馮-諾依曼架構的計算系統,已經跟上了基本被稱為摩爾定律的步伐。

  • So the computing power basically doubles every 18 to 24 months, and it's held true.

    所以計算能力基本上每隔18到24個月就會翻一番,而且是保持不變。

  • And that's because of the advancements in semiconductor technology.

    而這是因為半導體技術的進步。

  • Well, what's been happening in recent years is that Moore's law has been slowing down.

    好吧,最近幾年發生的事情是,摩爾法則的發展速度在放緩。

  • You know, we've seen this incredible trajectory, and now it's starting to flatten off.

    你知道,我們已經看到了這個令人難以置信的軌跡,現在它開始變平了。

  • Things are still improving every couple years by 15 20% but we're starting to reach a limit in terms of how tiny we can make these transistors.

    每隔幾年,情況仍在以15 20%的速度改善,但我們開始達到了一個極限,即我們可以將這些半導體做得多麼微小。

  • It will hold true for several more years, but eventually we're going to reach that cap where it becomes very difficult to continue at that pace, and this is where quantum computing comes in.

    它還會維持幾年,但最終我們會達到那個上限,以這種速度繼續下去會變得非常困難,這就是量子計算的作用。

  • This is where we see not just an exponential leap, but a real massive jump in computer processing power, because suddenly we go from something that's just improving by 20% a year to something that's just improved a million times a year.

    這時我們看到的不僅僅是一個指數級的飛躍,而是真正的計算機處理能力的巨大飛躍,因為突然間我們從一個每年只提高20%的東西,變成了一個每年提高一百萬倍的東西。

  • Um, just for perspective, about you know what, uh, a fully functional user fault tolerant, A universal, fault tolerant quantum computer could mean to the world.

    嗯,只是為了看問題,你知道,呃,一個全功能的用戶容錯,一個通用的,容錯的量子計算機對世界意味著什麼。

  • And so when we think about taking this incredibly powerful computers and focusing them on very complex problems, these problems that have so many variables that are traditional computers just can't process.

    所以當我們想到把這些強大的計算機集中在非常複雜的問題上,這些問題有很多變量,傳統的計算機無法處理。

  • Those are the types of problems that we're going to give.

    這些都是我們要給的問題類型。

  • We have been giving, in fact, a quantum computers.

    我們一直在給,其實量子計算機。

  • And so when we think about designing new molecular structures are understanding how proteins are folded and how our bodies interact with them.

    所以當我們考慮設計新的分子結構時,就是在瞭解蛋白質是如何摺疊的,以及我們的身體是如何與它們相互作用的。

  • We met, we talked about drug discovery and how that will change with the advent of quantum computing and what most people are not seeing yet.

    我們見面了,我們談到了藥物發現,以及隨著量子計算的出現將如何改變,以及大多數人還沒有看到的東西。

  • And what's incredible is that the functionality of quantum computers is already increasing at an exponential rate.

    而不可思議的是,量子計算機的功能已經在以指數級的速度增加。

  • I remember just a few years ago, a quantum computer that had a few quantum bits we call them cubits, uh, you know, was a big deal.

    我記得就在幾年前,一臺有幾個量子位的量子計算機,我們稱之為立方體,呃,你知道,是個大問題。

  • And then in 2000 and 19, when Google achieved quantum supremacy, we had a 53 quantum bits, so going from a couple quantum bits to 53 is beyond exponential growth in a very short period of time.

    然後在2000年和19年的時候,谷歌實現了量子至上,我們有53個量子比特,所以從幾個量子比特到53個量子比特,在很短的時間內是超越指數增長的。

  • And so what we're going to see this year is quantum computers that have more than 100 quantum bits and then 2022.

    所以今年我們要看到的是擁有100多個量子比特的量子計算機,然後是2022年。

  • We'll see several 100 quantum bits.

    我們會看到幾個100量子位。

  • I think you get what I'm.

    我想你明白我的意思。

  • What I'm getting at is that quantum computers themselves are already growing at an exponential rate, and their ability in terms of computer processing power is far greater than every the best supercomputers we have on the planet today.

    我想說的是,量子計算機本身已經在以指數級的速度增長,它們在計算機處理能力方面的能力遠遠超過我們今天地球上每一臺最好的超級計算機。

  • It makes it, I bet, difficult as a human to imagine 20 years from now what all that technology will lead up to.

    我敢說,作為一個人,很難想象20年後這些技術會導致什麼。

  • I mean, even for a guy as smart as you, Jeff, and as technical technologically, you know, studied as you are.

    我的意思是,即使是一個傢伙 聰明如你,傑夫, 和技術的技術, 你知道,研究,因為你是。

  • Do you ever wonder like it's hard for me even to conceive as an organic being what that kind of computing structure could mean to, you know, biotech and all these things?

    你有沒有想過,作為一個有機人,我甚至很難想象那種計算結構對生物技術和所有這些東西意味著什麼?

  • Do you ever think that I just came into my head?

    你有沒有想過,我只是走進了我的腦袋?

  • It's absolutely, in fact, one of the techniques that I use with myself literally every day is I asked myself a simple question.

    這是絕對的,事實上,我每天對自己使用的一個技術就是我問自己一個簡單的問題。

  • Are you thinking exponentially because we're human?

    你是不是因為我們是人類,所以才會有指數級的思維?

  • You know, our DNA is literally programmed to think in a linear fashion.

    你知道,我們的DNA從字面上看是被編程成線性思維的。

  • You know, we think about going through our days in a very linear scheduled sequence of events, and, uh, you know, we think about the things that we need to achieve every day and a very linear fashion and to us on a day to day basis.

    你知道,我們認為通過我們的日子在一個非常線性的預定事件的順序,並且,呃,你知道,我們認為的事情,我們需要實現每一天和一個非常線性的方式和我們在一天的基礎上。

  • Life really doesn't change that much.

    生活真的沒有那麼多變化。

  • But that's not true with technological advancement, and it changes much more quickly than even experts will realize.

    但科技的發展並非如此,它的變化比專家們都會意識到的要快得多。

  • It's something that I've noticed when I speak with PhDs around the world is that they're very focused on their one single area of expertise.

    當我與世界各地的博士們交談時,我注意到的一點是,他們非常專注於他們的一個專業領域。

  • I remember having discussions way back in 2016 with people with doctorates in genetics and genetic engineering, and their comments to me were that this we really won't see any therapies based on genetic editing for at least 10 years, and I remember telling them how wrong they were that in fact, we're going to see the first successful therapy application of genetic editing on a human within 24 months, and it's because they were so focused that they didn't actually see how fast the entire industry was developing.

    我記得早在2016年的時候,我就和擁有遺傳學和基因工程博士學位的人進行過討論,他們對我的評價是,這個我們至少在10年內真的不會看到任何基於基因編輯的療法,我記得我告訴他們,他們是多麼的錯誤,事實上,我們將在24個月內看到基因編輯在人類身上的第一個成功的療法應用,這是因為他們太專注了,他們實際上沒有看到整個行業的發展速度。

  • And you know what?

    你知道嗎?

  • We actually did have a cure for beta thalassemia and sickle cell anemia using CRISPR genetic editing technology within that 24 month time frame.

    實際上,在這24個月的時間裡,我們確實利用CRISPR基因編輯技術治癒了β地中海貧血和鐮狀細胞貧血。

  • It was extraordinary.

    這是非凡的。

  • So I Yes, I Absolutely.

    所以我是,我絕對是。

  • I remind myself every day when I look at research or I look at a company or I look at a product or service, I think.

    我每天看研究或者看公司或者看產品、服務的時候都會提醒自己,我想。

  • Are you looking at this from an exponential perspective?

    你是從指數的角度來看這個問題的嗎?

  • Are you missing the big picture here?

    你是不是錯過了大局?

  • One of the worst?

    最差的一個?

  • Yeah.

    是啊。

  • My mom.

    我媽媽

  • Wow.

    哇哦

  • For more mhm.

    對於更多的hmm。

Maybe you can give us a little taste of what some of these things are.

也許你可以給我們一些嚐嚐這些東西是什麼。

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B1 中級 中文 量子 計算機 速度 技術 基因 線性

量子計算?- 這就是我們看到的計算機處理能力的巨大跳躍 - Jeff Brown (QUANTUM COMPUTING ? - This Is Where We See A Massive Jump In Computer Processing Power - Jeff Brown)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 03 月 09 日
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