Name: 即使股價大漲，美國航空公司的前景也不甚明朗。 (Outlook for U.S. airlines less than certain even as shares surge)
Uploaded: 2021-02-26T19:36:28.000Z
Duration: 5 min 49 s

你好，歡迎來到近距離的部門。

Our focus today is airlines, and our guest is Burkett, who we, who covers the aerospace industry in the US at Morning Star.

我們今天的重點是航空業，我們的嘉賓是伯克特，我們，他在晨星報道美國的航空業。

With most international travel still off the cards and much of the industry's staff on follow, the market seemed to be already pricing in a recovery.

在大部分國際旅行仍未成行，行業內大部分員工也在跟隨的情況下，市場似乎已經在為復甦定價。

The SNP Composite Airline index counts Southwest on Delta and United as its top three holdings.

SNP綜合航空指數將達美航空和美聯航的西南航空列為其前三大持股。

This is despite United saying as recently as January that 14,000 jobs are at risk when payroll support expires on April the first.

儘管美聯航在1月份就表示，4月1日薪資支持到期後，14000個工作崗位將面臨風險。

And while more financial help appears to be included in the latest round of congressional stimulus, the industry is not out of the woods yet.

而在最新一輪的國會刺激政策中，似乎包含了更多的資金幫助，但行業還沒有走出困境。

So why is the sector seeing a recovery for investors while many of its planes are still grounded?

那麼，為什麼在很多飛機還停飛的情況下，投資者卻看到了該行業的復甦？

Let's speak with Burkett, who we at Morning Star Burkett.

讓我們來談談伯克特，我們晨星伯克特。

I guess the first question is, why is the S and P Composite airline index performing so well?

我想第一個問題是，為什麼S和P綜合航空指數表現得這麼好？

Yes, I'd say that vaccine rollout is probably the most important factor for airlines right now.

是的，我想說，疫苗的推廣可能是目前航空公司最重要的因素。

Aggregate travel demand has decreased substantially during the pandemic.

在大流行病期間，總的旅行需求大幅減少。

Yada reports that globally roughly two thirds of demand has been cut out from the pandemic in 2020 which is substantially greater than previous aviation shocks.

亞達報告稱，全球大約有三分之二的需求在2020年被切斷，這比以往的航空衝擊要大得多。

So returning to normal levels of travel is probably the most important factor for airline investors at this time now.

所以，迴歸到正常的出行水準，可能是目前航空公司投資者最重要的因素。

There's also a lot of talk about consolidation about the Big Four in the U.

關於四巨頭在美國的整合也是眾說紛紜。

I think that this is a pretty consolidated industry and that additional consolidation will be ah, little bit difficult.

我認為，這是一個相當鞏固的行業，額外的鞏固將是啊，有點困難。

Um, I'd say that also, I'm not necessarily sure if any airline has the balance sheet right now to really take on to really act aggressively at a moment like this.

嗯，我想說的是，我也不一定確定是否有任何一家航空公司現在的資產負債表，在這樣的時刻真正採取真正的積極行動。

You also mentioned in your notebook at that airlines a lot, not letting this crisis go to waste.

你在筆記本上也提到，航空公司很多，不能讓這次危機白白浪費。

Do you mean that they're becoming mawr refined and how they react to the pandemic?

你的意思是說，他們正在變得越來越精緻，以及他們如何應對這場大流行？

I'd say that the three things that you need to value an airline right now, our degree of operating losses in 2020 and 2021 progression of recovery and then a mid cycle operating margin.

我想說的是，現在對航空公司的估值，我們在2020年和2021年的經營虧損程度逐步恢復，然後是一箇中週期的經營利潤率，這三點是需要的。

I believe that that mid cycle operating margins should be higher than the previous five year average for most US based for all the US based airlines that I cover.

我相信，就我所覆蓋的所有美國本土的航空公司而言，大部分美國本土的中週期營運利潤率應該高於前五年的平均水平。

Um, and I think that the, uh, cutting of management overhead, along with a few efficiencies, can drive Ah couple increasing a couple 100 basis points of margin increases and in a normalized setting.

嗯，我認為，呃，削減管理費用，以及一些效率，可以推動一對夫婦增加幾個100個基點的利潤增長，並在一個正常的設置。

So, given what you've mentioned, the vaccine rollouts that we're seeing globally, Andi also potentially more help in terms of stimulus.

所以，鑑於你提到的，我們在全球範圍內看到的疫苗推廣，安迪也有可能在刺激方面提供更多幫助。

Would you buy, hold or sell on the sector?

你會對該板塊買入、持有還是賣出？

I think the sector is roughly fairly valued.

我認為該板塊的估值大致相當。

I think investors should demand deep discounts Thio by airlines at this time, given the pretty substantial uncertainty in the recovery and the operating environment, Um, I don't see significant margin of safety, um, in any of my US based airline coverage.

我認為投資者應該要求航空公司在這個時候深度折扣Thio，鑑於相當大的不確定性，在復甦和經營環境，嗯，我沒有看到顯著的安全邊際，嗯，在我的任何一個美國的航空公司的覆蓋範圍。

Thank you for care That was Morningstar Equity.

Now, before we go, let's get you a round up of some of the top stories in the airline sector, international holiday bookings and UK surged after the government yesterday laid out plans to lift coronavirus restrictions.

現在，在我們走之前，讓我們為您總結一些航空業的熱門新聞，國際度假預訂和英國在政府昨天提出取消冠狀病毒限制的計劃後激增。

EasyJet said flight bookings from Britain jumped more than 300% on holiday bookings by 600% over the same period last week after the government indicated travel could restart from mid May.

易捷航空表示，在政府表示旅行可能從5月中旬開始重啟後，來自英國的班機預訂量比上週同期的假日預訂量猛增300%以上，增長600%。

S National Transportation Safety Board says that damage to have family that failed on a United Airlines Boeing Triple seven is consistent with metal fatigue.

S 國家運輸安全委員會說，損害有家庭，失敗的聯合航空公司波音三七是與金屬疲勞一致。

NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt told reporters that Pratt and Whitney PW 4000 engine failed on Saturday with a loud bang four minutes after takeoff from Denver following an initial analysis of the flight data recorder on cockpit voice recorder.

NTSB主席Robert Sumwalt告訴記者，在對駕駛艙語音記錄儀上的飛行數據記錄進行初步分析後，普惠公司PW 4000發動機在週六從丹佛起飛4分鐘後發生了巨大的故障。

He said it remained unclear whether the incident is consistent with an engine failure on a different Hawaii bound United flight in February 2018 that was also attributed to metal fatigue.

他說，目前仍不清楚這起事件是否與2018年2月另一架飛往夏威夷的美聯航班機的發動機故障一致，該班機也被歸結為金屬疲勞。

The engine that failed over Denver was used in 128 planes, or around 10% off the global Triple seven fleet.

在丹佛上空發生故障的發動機被用於128架飛機，約佔全球三七機隊的10%。

On finally planemaker's, Airbus and Boeing are bracing for some jet order cancelations from Norwegian air.

在終於飛機制造商的，空客和波音正準備從挪威航空取消一些噴氣機訂單。

This is according to industry sources, Norwegian last year.

One bankruptcy protection in both Norway and Ireland, where most of its assets are registered.

在挪威和愛爾蘭都有一個破產保護，其大部分資產都在那裡註冊。

The Irish High Court this week is hearing arguments concerning the repudiation of some of Norwegians liabilities, including aircraft leases.

愛爾蘭高等法院本週正在聽取有關挪威公司拒絕承擔包括飛機租賃在內的一些債務的辯論。

That's your roundup off the airline sector.