No end in sight.

看不到盡頭。

A modern world which thought it made the rules cut down to size by Mother Nature, humbled on, frightened by unimaginable pain.

一個自以為制定了規則的現代世界，被大自然母親剪裁得體無完膚，卑微的上，被難以想象的痛苦嚇到。

But now a destination hoping interview.

但現在一個目的地希望採訪。

For the first time since this wretched virus took hold, we can see a route out of the pandemic.

自從這種可惡的病毒發作以來，我們第一次可以看到一條擺脫疫情的路線。

The breakthroughs in treatments in testing vaccines mean that the scientific cavalry is now in sight on Do we know in our hearts.

在測試疫苗的治療方法上的突破，意味著科學騎兵現在已經在我們的心裡是否知道。

The next year we will succeed.

明年我們會成功。

A tentative start on the journey will be made on the second of December, when the current England wide restrictions will be replaced by a beefed up regional tiered system.

12月2日將試探性地開始征程，屆時，目前英格蘭範圍內的限制措施將被強化的區域分層制度所取代。

Many more will be in the higher tiers.

更多的人將在更高的層級。

All areas in the highest tier will be given extra testing for six weeks, by which time a nationwide vaccination program should be underway.

所有處於最高層的地區將被額外檢測六週，屆時全國範圍內的疫苗接種計劃應該會進行。

On over Christmas.

在聖誕節期間。

A careful relax ation off some rules.

仔細的放鬆了一些規則。

I know that many of us want and need Christmas with our families.

我知道，我們很多人都希望也需要和家人一起過聖誕節。

We feel after this year we deserve it.

我們覺得經過這一年的努力，我們應該得到它。

But this is not the moment to let the virus rip for the sake of Christmas parties.

但現在不是為了聖誕派對而讓病毒肆虐的時候。

It is the season to be jolly.

現在正是歡樂的季節。

But it is also the season to be jolly careful, especially with elderly relatives.

但這也是一個歡樂小心的季節，尤其是對年長的親屬。

It felt at times today as if they were to Boris Johnson's appearing from his self isolation layer here in Downing Street tonight.

今天有時感覺就像他們對鮑里斯-約翰遜今晚在唐寧街這裡從他的自我隔離層出現一樣。

Ah, highly cautious prime minister adopted a downbeat tone as he warned the country off a hard slog ahead.

啊，高度謹慎的總理採用了一種低調的語氣，他警告說，國家未來將面臨艱難的困境。

But earlier, ah, more boosterish prime minister was beamed into Parliament as he sought to reassure conservative MPs who are highly skeptical off continuing restrictions.

但早些時候，啊，更豪爽的總理被束入議會，因為他試圖安慰保守派議員誰是高度懷疑關閉繼續限制。

A former health minister sees slow moves towards a happier place.

一位前衛生部長認為，緩慢地走向一個更幸福的地方。

This is about putting together the vaccine testing on the improved test track and isolate to make sure that we can get safely through to the spring when hopefully through science, we can achieve some sort of herd immunity.

這是關於把疫苗測試放在改進的測試軌道和隔離物上，以確保我們可以安全地度過春季，屆時希望通過科學，我們可以實現某種群體免疫。

I think that's the best hope that we've got right now.

我想這是我們現在最大的希望了。

There are many, many forks left in the road.

路上還有很多很多的岔路口。

Many bends.

很多彎道。

Many people feel like they're going around the bend.

很多人都覺得自己在走彎路。

Many of us do in 2020 the year that just keeps on giving.

在2020年，我們很多人都是這樣做的，這一年，只是在不斷的付出。

But there is cautious signs for riel optimism.

但里爾樂觀主義有謹慎的跡象。

Andi Hope Labor says it's important to be cautious.

安迪-霍普工黨表示，謹慎行事很重要。

Well, I think it's right that we give people hope because it's been a terrible year felt for everyone, and we want some light at the end of the tunnel.

我覺得我們給人們希望是對的，因為這一年大家都覺得很糟糕，我們希望在隧道的盡頭有一些光亮。

But equally, we can't afford to send the message out that the virus is big because it certainly isn't.

但同樣，我們也不能發出病毒很大的資訊，因為它肯定不是。

And we know it's gonna be a considerable amount of time, possibly six months or more, before everyone will be vaccinated.

我們知道，這將是一個相當長的時間， 可能是6個月或更多， 之前，每個人都將接種疫苗。

And that's really the point that we need to get to before we can be confident that we've actually got over this.

而這才是我們真正需要達到的點，在我們能夠確信我們已經真正克服了這個問題之前。

A leading scientist believes this may be one of sciences, finest hours, but the whole scientific response to this pandemic has been quite extraordinary.

一位著名科學家認為，這可能是科學界最輝煌的時刻之一，但整個科學界對這一流行病的反應是相當不尋常的。

I mean, the very fact that it was identified and sequence within weeks of it becoming clinically apparent all the way through to developing the diagnostics, and I mean, it's been difficult to roll them out.

我的意思是，它在臨床上明顯的幾周內就被識別和排序，一直到開發診斷方法，我的意思是，它很難推廣出去。

But the idea that you could go from an unknown infection to a sequenced virus to a diagnostic to a vaccine in this period is quite unprecedented.

但你能在這個時期從未知的感染到病毒測序再到診斷再到疫苗的想法是相當空前的。

It wouldn't have been possible even five or 10 years ago, a crisp feel to the air on reassuring sites on our streets but still some way to go until normal life returns.

這在五年前、十年前也是不可能的，在我們的街道上，讓人放心的工地上，空氣中瀰漫著清新的感覺，但距離恢復正常生活還有一段路要走。

That was Nick.

那是尼克。

What?

什麼？

And joining us now, Professor Sir John Bell Regis, chair of medicine at Oxford University, who sits on the UK Vaccines Task Force on Lord Robert Winston Labor Peer and professor of science and society at Imperial College, London.

現在加入我們的行列，約翰-貝爾-雷吉斯爵士教授，牛津大學的醫學主席，他坐在英國疫苗工作組對羅伯特-溫斯頓勞動貴族勳爵和倫敦帝國學院的科學和社會教授。

It's great to have you both s, Sir John.

很高興你們兩個都來了，約翰爵士。

I'm going to start with you.

我要從你開始。

It does feel like Oxford's Day today and the PM said, this is our route out of the pandemic.

今天確實感覺像牛津節，總理說，這是我們走出疫情的路線。

Is that how you feel now?

你現在的感覺是這樣嗎？

Well, I I as you know, I'm quite optimistic that we'll get ourselves out of trouble sometime over the course of the next few months.

好吧，我... ...你知道，我很樂觀，我們會擺脫麻煩 在未來幾個月的某個時候。

I've made the prediction is spring before things start to appear to be normal again, and I think that's about the right timing.

我已經做出了預測是春天，然後才開始出現正常的情況，我認為這是對的時間。

We've got three vaccines now.

我們現在已經有三種疫苗了。

We've got mass testing, which appears to work pretty well.

我們已經進行了大規模測試，看來效果不錯。

We've got a lot of we've got a lot of arrows in the quiver that we could shoot.

我們有很多... ...我們有很多箭筒裡的箭，我們可以射擊。

So I'm fairly optimistic that things will start to move in the right direction Now, Were you always optimistic, or am I right in thinking that At one point you had doubts that you would ever get here.

所以我很樂觀地認為事情會朝著正確的方向發展 現在，你是一直很樂觀，還是我認為你曾經懷疑過你會不會到這裡來？

Well, I wasn't sure we were going to get a vaccine.

我不確定我們會不會打疫苗。

If you want to know the honest truth, I always put the odds of that of being 50% because it's hard to make vaccines to respiratory pathogens.

如果你想知道真實的真相，我總是把這個概率定為50%，因為很難做出針對呼吸道病原體的疫苗。

This was not a given on the way things were bumping along at the beginning.

這在一開始的時候，事情的顛簸方式並不是必然的。

It wasn't clear that the testing was gonna go well.

不知道測試會不會順利。

Therapies were hard to find it.

療法很難找到它。

It was a bad time last spring.

去年春天的時候很不好過。

But I think now we've got reason to be optimistic.

但我覺得現在我們有理由樂觀了。

Let me ask you to explain this the 70% versus the 90% effectiveness, which I think ah, lot of people might be confused by.

我請你解釋一下這個70%與90%的效果，我想啊，很多人可能會被這個問題所迷惑。

We've heard with fighter with modern of the other vaccines that there is a higher rate now.

我們聽說用現代的其他疫苗的戰鬥機，現在有一個較高的比例。

Presumably, people won't be given a choice, will they?

大概，人們不會有選擇的權利吧？

When the vaccine comes round, or if you could choose between higher efficacy but lower side effects?

疫苗什麼時候上市，或者說，如果你能在療效較高但副作用較低的疫苗中選擇？

How does that work s just to be clear, the Pfizer vaccine and the Madonna vaccines air terrific vaccines, their brand new platform, and I think the level of efficacy they achieved is extraordinary and terrific.

如何工作的s只是為了明確，輝瑞疫苗和麥當娜疫苗空氣了不起的疫苗，他們的全新平臺，我認為他們取得的療效水準是非凡的和了不起的。

But the truth is you don't need that kind of efficacy.

但事實上，你不需要這樣的功效。

Have an effective vaccine, the flu vaccines running out about 60% efficacy.

有一個有效的疫苗，流感疫苗跑出來約60%的功效。

So you know you don't need to get there.

所以你知道你不需要去那裡。

And I think the most important thing about the vaccine Theo Oxford after Seneca Vaccine is that when we looked at people both with the low dose and the high dose both the 70% which is the high dose high dose and the 90% which the low dose high dose and we looked for people who developed severe disease, we didn't have any in either group.

我認為最重要的事情關於疫苗西奧牛津後塞內卡疫苗是，當我們看著人們都與低劑量和高劑量兩個70％，這是高劑量高劑量和90％，低劑量高劑量和我們尋找的人誰開發的嚴重疾病，我們沒有任何在任何一組。

So it's highly effective at preventing people from being admitted to hospital with bad disease, which is what we intended toe have in the first place.

所以它能有效地防止人們帶著壞病入院，這也是我們的初衷。

So way could have a theoretical argument about one why one is better than the other.

所以方式可以有一個理論上的爭論，為什麼一個比一個好。

But the truth is, they're both pretty good at doing what we want him to dio Lord Winston that this looks like the bet has paid off.

但事實上，他們都很擅長做我們想要他做的事情，dio溫斯頓大人，這看起來像是賭注已經得到了回報。

This is pretty much vindication of the whole strategy, isn't it?

這幾乎是對整個戰略的平反，不是嗎？

Well, it's certainly a remarkable achievement.

嗯，這確實是一個了不起的成就。

There's no doubt about that, and it's congratulations to Oxford and the other universities.

這一點毋庸置疑，這是對牛津大學和其他大學的祝賀。

I think one of the really interesting things is that this is one of the first times that we've seen in recent years.

我認為真正有趣的事情之一是，這是我們近年來第一次看到的。

And I can remember where University University is really, in fact taking things right through to our product, which is then actually capable of used for health care.

而且我還記得大學大學在哪裡，其實是真正的，把東西直接拿到我們的產品上，然後真正能夠用於保健。

Usually this is done by big farmer and other companies.

通常是由大農等公司來做。

So this is This is amazing, too, for academic sector.

所以這是 這是驚人的，也是學術界的。

But I'm I'm a bit concerned about the risk of humorous about the risk of being over optimistic.

但我我有點擔心幽默的風險，關於過於樂觀的風險。

I think the problem is not that the scientists, I think science is great.

我覺得問題不在於科學家，我覺得科學是偉大的。

But I regret to say that when you look back over the last eight or nine months, the government has not really being trusted and it still isn't trusted.

但是我很遺憾的說，當你回顧過去八九個月的時候，政府並沒有真正的被信任，它仍然不被信任。

It's not.

不是這樣的

It's interested in messaging, but it's not interested in communication.

它對資訊傳遞感興趣，但對交流不感興趣。

I think that's a really problem because so much of the time we're getting top down messages which aren't really intelligible on.

我認為這是一個真正的問題，因為很多時候我們得到的是自上而下的資訊，而這些資訊並不是真正可以理解的上。

We've seen a series of debacles.

我們已經看到了一系列的失敗。

For example, we've seen testing trace, which was a shambles.

比如我們看到的測試痕跡，那是一塌糊塗。

We've seen problems with healthcare workers being exposed unnecessarily to the virus and so on.

我們已經看到醫護人員不必要地接觸病毒等問題。

And I think that's a real problem now because there are a lot of young people who are really very, very skeptical on somewhat suspicious.

我認為這是一個真正的問題，現在，因為有很多年輕人誰是真的非常，非常懷疑對有些可疑。

And so we've got to do something about that because, of course, skeptical to the point where they wouldn't take the vaccine.

所以我們得做點什麼，因為，當然，懷疑到他們不會打疫苗。

Is that your fear?

這是你的恐懼嗎？

Well, I think there are a lot of anti vax is around you, and you have to look out the social media to see that that's a That's a problem for Start.

好吧，我認為有很多的反Vax是在你身邊，你必須看出來的社交媒體，這是一個 這是一個問題的開始。

But I suppose one of the issues, of course, is that you know there's a there's an ethical difference.

但我想，其中一個問題，當然，是你知道有一個有一個道德差異。

A Sir John will tell you between giving a vaccine from giving a normal drug, because with the vaccine you're treating a vast number of people, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, perhaps even mawr.

約翰爵士會告訴你給疫苗和給普通藥物之間的區別，因為用疫苗你要治療的是大量的人，幾萬，幾十萬，甚至可能是幾百萬。

But of course, those are, well, people that not being treated for an illness that they've yet got.

但是，當然，這些都是，好了，人，不被治療的疾病，他們還沒有得到。

So there's a big issue.

所以這是個大問題。

We saw that with MMR.

我們在MMR上看到了這一點。

Actually, to some extent, I mean, that was a long time ago way history relates.

其實，在某種程度上，我是說，那是很久以前的歷史關係方式。

What what happened there?

那裡發生了什麼事？

Sir John, the PM said that this is never going to be mandatory, so Do you have that same concern?

約翰爵士，總理說過，這永遠不會是強制性的，那麼你也有同樣的擔心嗎？

How do you make people want it?

怎麼才能讓人家願意呢？

Do you?

你有嗎？

I mean, I think the Australian airline Qantas has said for example, it will be a necessity for flying with them.

我的意思是，我認為澳洲航空公司澳航已經說過，比如，這將是他們飛行的必要條件。

Is that how you do it?

你是這樣做的嗎？

Do you make employers insist on it?

你讓僱主堅持這樣做嗎？

Head teachers insist on it s so I'm I'm very firmly against manned ation.

校長老師們堅持這樣做，所以我我非常堅決地反對載人。

I think manned ation is not a good way Thio bring people along with you.

我認為載人行動並不是一個好的方式，Thio帶著人們和你一起。

I mean it.

我是認真的

It works well in some societies, but it doesn't work well here, nor would it work in North America.

它在一些社會中很好用，但在這裡並不好用，在北美也不會用。

So I think you do have to persuade people to come along.

所以，我覺得你確實要說服大家一起來。

Having said that, we may get to a position where it's necessary in order to control transmission, to know who's protected from developing the disease and who isn't.

說到這裡，我們可能會達到這樣的境地：為了控制傳播，我們有必要知道哪些人不會得病，哪些人不會。

And that protection could come in one of two ways.

而這種保護可能有兩種方式。

One is you could have had the disease.

一個是你可能得了這個病。

And I think there's now increasing evidence that if you've had the disease on you've had a positive PCR test, then you are protected against the disease for a period of time, and I'll leave that open.

而且我認為現在有越來越多的證據表明，如果你得過這種病，你的PCR檢測呈陽性，那麼你在一段時間內就會受到保護，免受疾病的侵害，我就不說了。

But it's probably at least six months, probably a year, and then if you get a vaccine, you'll be protected against the disease.

但是可能至少要半年，可能要一年，然後如果你打了疫苗，你就會被保護起來，不會得病。

So it may be necessary for some activities to require people to be able to show that they are protected against the disease or have recently had a test in order for that to go back to relatively normal functions.

所以在一些活動中，可能需要人們能夠證明自己是防病的，或者是最近做過檢查，這樣才能恢復到相對正常的功能。

So I I think that all this has to play out the big issues now relate, really.

所以我我覺得這個都要發揮現在大問題的關係，真的。

And I think Lord Winston has hit the nail on the head.

而且我覺得溫斯頓大人一針見血。

A lot of this is policy related.

這其中有很多是與政策有關的。

Now it's How do you implement the best approach to getting this all across that finished science has sort of done its job, but it can't operate on its own.

現在是你如何實施最好的方法，把這些都實現了，完成科學已經算是完成了它的工作，但是它自己不能操作。

It's gotta operate in a policy framework.

它得在政策框架下運作。

So it's over.

所以，這一切都結束了。

Teoh, professor of science and society, the behavior on what that involves.

Teoh，科學與社會教授，行為上涉及到什麼。

How confident are you, then, that this rollout can be I Don't you call me a labor peer?

那麼，你有多大的信心，這次推廣能我不叫勞動同行嗎？

I do take the whip just about, but I must have to say to you that I do feel quite.

我的確是差不多，但我必須對你說，我確實覺得很。

I think independently that the government has certainly over promised and under performed, and I think That's a big problem here.

我獨立地認為，政府肯定 承諾過度，表現不足， 我認為這是一個大問題。

Because, of course, if we I mean, inevitably, you're going to get some people with the worst side effects and others with any kind of any kind of medication, however simple, even aspirin.

因為，當然，如果我們... ...我的意思是，不可避免地，你會得到一些人與最嚴重的副作用和其他人與任何類型的任何藥物，然而簡單，甚至阿司匹林。

So the risk, of course, is that the U.

所以，風險當然是美國。

N.

N.

Start to really create mistrust as the rumors go around.

開始真正的產生不信任，因為謠言四起。

And I think that's a big problem.

我認為這是個大問題。

Because, of course, you could disturb a lot of people who are already very, very anxious about a highly puzzling disease which has so many different faces attacking so many different organs in different people.

因為，當然，你可能會打擾到很多人，他們已經非常非常焦慮，對於一個高度令人費解的疾病，它有這麼多不同的面孔，在不同的人身上攻擊這麼多不同的器官。

I wonder what the answer to that is that you can't you can't stop people talking about side effects.

我不知道答案是什麼，你不能你不能阻止人們談論副作用。

If, of course, we can't and we shouldn't.

當然，如果，我們不能也不應該。

That's the point.

這就是問題的關鍵。

I don't think we should.

我不認為我們應該。

But I think you know what we can learn from history.

但我想你知道我們可以從歷史中學習什麼。

We've seen nuclear power was very badly handled because we lied about the risk of emissions radio activity with MMR.

我們已經看到核電被處理得非常糟糕，因為我們用MMR謊稱排放放射性活動的風險。

Of course, we really didn't get the message across with the measles.

當然，我們真的沒有把麻疹的資訊傳遞出去。

Vaccine on with cotton mouth and with BSE with genetically modified crops is a wonderful example of a really good technology which we mishandled with very poor communication and also commercial interests in that particular case s.

疫苗與棉口和BSE與轉基因作物是一個非常好的技術，我們處理不當與非常糟糕的溝通和商業利益在該特定情況下s的一個美妙的例子。

So I think we have to be aware that we've got to be really a bit more.

所以我覺得我們要意識到，我們要真正的多一點。

We've got to be not the scientist.

我們要做的不是科學家。

I think everybody has to be modest on, actually.

我覺得大家要謙虛上，其實。

Just be.

只是要。

I mean, I don't think that means, for example, we stopped taking precautions simply because we've got a vaccine.

我的意思是，我不認為這意味著，例如，我們停止採取預防措施，只是因為我們有一個疫苗。

I think that's one of the issues we've got to think about.

我想這也是我們要思考的問題之一。

Do you think it kind of put the same thought to you, Sir John, when we're now talking about Christmas and what that might entail and the start of sort of opening up getting a few families together and all the rest of it we don't know the exact details yet.

你認為它那種把同樣的想法給你，約翰爵士，當我們現在談論聖誕節，以及可能需要什麼，並開始排序的開放得到幾個家庭在一起，所有其餘的，我們不知道確切的細節呢。

Does that seem to you like running before we can walk?

在你看來，這就像我們還沒來得及走就先跑了嗎？

Given that we're so close?

既然我們離得這麼近？

Well, I I Look, I'm I'm of the view that we've got to be pretty cautious for the next little while.

好吧，我... ... 聽著，我... ... 我認為在接下來的一段時間裡，我們必須非常謹慎。

It's gonna be some time before we get a significant number of the population immunized.

要想讓大量的人得到免疫，還需要一段時間。

And you only have to look at how quickly this disease can spread to realize that we do have to try and keep the lid on this thing for a while longer.

你只要看看這種疾病的傳播速度 就會意識到，我們必須努力讓這種疾病再持續一段時間。

Now, having said that, the population you know this the people in this country have had a really, really terrible year.

現在，說到這裡，人口... ...你知道... ...這個國家的人民度過了非常非常糟糕的一年。

I'm really from February on, people have lost their jobs.

我真是從2月份開始，人家就失業了。

They they've had loved ones die.

他們他們已經有親人死去。

They've been locked up in their homes.

他們被關在家裡。

They haven't been able to do the usual things that they do.

他們還沒能做到平時所做的事情。

I mean, it's been pretty awful.

我的意思是，它已經相當可怕。

So I my view is that loosening it up for a few days over Christmas will undoubtedly lead to a bit of an increase in the transmission of the disease.

所以，我我的觀點是，在聖誕節期間鬆動幾天，無疑會導致疾病的傳播量增加一些。

But, you know, I think there's a point at which you probably have toe let it loose a bit in order to keep people going through until March or April.

但是，你知道，我認為有一個點，在這一點上，你可能要讓它鬆動一點，以保持人們通過三月或四月。

Okay.

好吧，我知道了

Thank you both very much indeed.

真的非常感謝兩位。

Thanks for coming in.

謝謝你的到來。