Name: 如果韓國聯合成一個國家會怎樣？ (What Would Happen if Korea United Into 1 Country?)
Uploaded: 2020-11-21T18:37:01.000Z
Duration: 10 min 22 s

基礎被動語態

this video was made possible by skill share Start learning for free for two months by being one of the 1st 1000.

這個視頻是由技能共享開始免費學習兩個月，成為前1000名之一。

A sign up at S K l dot s h slash Real life Lower 30.

在S K l點s h斜線現實生活下30的報名。

This is South Korea and this is North Korea.

這裡是南朝鮮，這裡是北朝鮮。

Despite being related, you've maybe heard that they don't exactly get along very well with one another.

雖然是親戚關係，但你也許聽說過，他們之間並不是很合得來。

但如果他們這樣做了，會發生什麼？

And North and South simply joined together and became Korea.

而南北雙方乾脆合在一起，成了韓國。

Basically, a lot of really weird things, because despite both being Korea, you'd be hard pressed to find two countries that were any more different.

基本上，很多很奇怪的事情，因為儘管都是韓國，但你很難找到兩個國家有什麼不同。

When you look at an overview of the two countries, you'll notice that North Korea has a population that's only half the size of the South.

當你查看兩國的概況時，你會發現，北韓的人口只有南方的一半。

But more alarmingly, the North Korean economy is pathetically smaller than the South's 54 times smaller.

但更令人震驚的是，北韓的經濟規模比韓國小54倍，小得可憐。

In fact, North Korea is only the 150 18th largest global economy.

事實上，北韓只是全球150個第18大經濟體。

While South Korea stands tall as the world's 12th largest economy, however, North Korea does have more to offer the South than meets the eye.

雖然韓國高高在上，成為世界第12大經濟體，然而，北韓給韓國帶來的好處確實比表面上看到的要多。

North Korea has a massive supply of natural re sources like coal, uranium and medals, in addition to a large pool of cheap, unskilled labor that the South doesn't have.

北韓除了擁有大量的煤炭、鈾和勳章等天然再資源外，還擁有大量廉價的、非技術性的勞動力，這是南方所沒有的。

While the South in turn, has a massive amount of capital technology and high skilled workers that the North doesn't have, the combination of these two together would gradually transformed Korea as a whole into an economic powerhouse.

而南方又擁有大量的資本技術和高技術工人，這些都是北方所沒有的，這兩者結合在一起，將使整個韓國逐漸變成一個經濟強國。

A paper written by economists at Goldman Sachs back in 2000 and nine suggested that a unified Korea would have potential to surge ahead to the world's seventh largest economy by 2050 blowing past Russia, Canada, Brazil and Italy.

高盛的經濟學家在2000年和9年撰寫的一篇論文中指出，一個統一的韓國將有潛力在2050年超越俄羅斯、加拿大、巴西和意大利，突飛猛進成為世界第七大經濟體。

United Korea has potential to be an extraordinarily powerful country on the world stage, but the road to get there is going to be long and painful.

韓國有潛力成為世界舞臺上一個異常強大的國家，但通往那裡的道路將是漫長而痛苦的。

Let's compare the difficulties of reunifying Korea today with the difficulties of reunifying a similar country.

讓我們把今天統一韓國的困難和統一類似國家的困難做個比較。

Back in the 19 nineties, Germany, just like Korea, Germany was divided in half for decades between a capitalist and communist side.

早在十九世紀九十年代，德國就像韓國一樣，幾十年來，德國被資本主義和共產主義一方一分為二。

But on like Korea so far, Germany eventually came back together.

但就像韓國到目前為止，德國最終還是回到了一起。

And there's good reasons for why it was possible for Germany but hasn't been for Korea.

而且德國有充分的理由，為什麼德國有可能，但韓國一直沒有。

Germany didn't experience of violent civil war between the two sides that killed millions of people while Korea did.

德國沒有經歷過雙方的暴力內戰，殺死了數百萬人，而韓國卻經歷過。

Geographically, East Germany had a political enclave of West Germany deep inside of the country, West Berlin, which easily allowed information and knowledge of the outside world to enter East Germany.

從地理上看，東德在國內深處有一塊西德的政治飛地--西柏林，很容易讓外界的資訊和知識進入東德。

North Korea's geography, meanwhile, is very different.

同時，北韓的地理環境也大不相同。

There are no political enclaves inside of the country.

There is ocean to the east and the West, the most fortified border in human history, with millions of soldiers and land mines in the south and the only countries to the north where fellow communist countries China and the Soviet Union, it is geographically way harder to get outside information or knowledge into North Korea than it was for East Germany, which means the North Koreans are far less aware of how much wealthier South Koreans are than East Germans were of West Germans.

東邊和西邊都是海洋，是人類歷史上最堅固的邊境，南邊有百萬阿兵哥和地雷，北邊只有同為共產主義國家的中國和蘇聯，從地理上來說，要想獲得外界的資訊或知識進入北韓，比東德要難得多，也就是說，朝鮮人對韓國人的富裕程度遠不如東德人對西德人的瞭解。

First of all, though, North Korea is way mawr, economically depressed than East Germany.

不過首先，北韓比東德要差得多，經濟蕭條。

Ever waas In 1990 West Germans had incomes there were three times higher on average than East Germans.

1990年西德人的平均收入是東德人的三倍。

But today, South Koreans have incomes that air 20 who times higher on average than North Koreans.

但如今，韓國人的收入比北朝鮮人的平均收入高出20誰倍。

In the event of a sudden reunification like what happened in Germany.

在像德國那樣突然統一的情況下。

A flood of low skilled and uneducated North Koreans air going to come down into the south and the South is going have to foot the bill to raise living standards and development back in the North.

一大批低技能和未受教育的朝鮮人將湧入南方，而南方將不得不為提高北方的生活水準和發展埋單。

This could cost the South Korean taxpayers upto one trillion U.

這可能會讓韓國納稅人損失高達1萬億美金。

Dollars to accomplish over a period of 10 years, which would almost certainly stagnate and harm the economy in the short run.

美元在10年內完成，這幾乎肯定會在短期內停滯不前，損害經濟。

Because of that, a lot of people in South Korea don't even want reunification anymore.

正因為如此，韓國很多人甚至不想統一了。

Polls have consistently shown that only around 56% of South Koreans actually want reunification these days, while an overwhelming 72% of young South Koreans under 30 don't want it at all.

民調一直顯示，如今只有56%左右的韓國人真正希望統一，而在30歲以下的韓國年輕人中，有超過72%的人根本不希望統一。

And that doesn't even factor in what North Koreans might think.

而這還沒有考慮到朝鮮人的想法。

There's currently around 30,000 North Korean defectors who have escaped and are living in South Korea and integrating into the radically different culture there has been difficult for all of them.

目前約有3萬名北韓叛逃者逃出並在韓國生活，融入那裡截然不同的文化對他們來說都很困難。

North Korea is effectively an absolute Stalinist monarchy ruled by the Kim dynasty, where citizens needs and jobs are mandated by the government.

北韓實際上是一個由金氏王朝統治的斯大林主義絕對君主制，公民的需求和工作由政府規定。

While South Korea is a liberal Democratic capitalist state with cut throat competition for employment.

雖然韓國是一個自由的民主資本主義國家，就業競爭割喉。

North Korean men have to serve 10 years in the military, and they aren't used to competing for jobs or employment.

北韓男子要在軍隊中服役10年，他們不習慣於競爭工作和就業。

So defectors naturally, always struggled to adapt in the very different environment of the South, and they will struggle under a reunification as well.

所以叛逃者自然而然地，總是在南方截然不同的環境中掙扎著適應，在統一的環境下，他們也會掙扎。

But perhaps the biggest challenges that Korea faces towards the reunification our geopolitical ones most importantly what happens to North Korea and the Kim Dynasty.

但也許韓國在統一過程中面臨的最大挑戰是我們的地緣政治挑戰，最重要的是北韓和金氏王朝的命運。

North Korea controls the largest military of any country in the world in terms of sheer size, with over 7.7 million men who have military training, which is almost one out of every three people in the country.

就規模而言，北韓控制著世界上所有國家中最龐大的軍隊，有超過770萬名男子接受過軍事訓練，這幾乎是該國每三個人中就有一個。

North Korea controls 1300 aircraft, 300 helicopters, 4300 tanks, 70 submarines and, most frightening of all, an estimated stockpile of 60 nuclear weapons, in addition to an unknown number of medium to short range missiles and around 5000 tons of chemical weapons.

北朝鮮控制著1300架飛機、300架直升機、4300輛坦克、70艘潛艇，最可怕的是，估計儲存了60枚核武器，此外還有數量不明的中短程飛彈和大約5 000噸化學武器。

If Korea reunified under the rule of the South, the fate of this massive and deadly army is just unknown.

如果韓國統一在南方的統治下，這支龐大而致命的軍隊的命運就是未知數。

The nukes and chemical weapons may be dismantled or sold off toe less trustworthy people like terrorists and the unemployed North Korean nuclear weapons scientists themselves may leave to find work with a new employer somewhere else.

核武器和化學武器可能會被拆除或賣給恐怖分子等不太值得信任的人，而失業的北朝鮮核武器科學家自己可能會離開，到其他地方找新的僱主工作。

Unification is a potential powder keg of uncertainty that could go smoothly or go violently explosive.

統一是一個潛在的不確定因素的火藥桶，可能順利進行，也可能猛烈爆炸。

So the plan for reunification in the South currently is a gradual one whereby North Korea slowly becomes incorporated into the South and begins as a sort of one country, two systems style of government not to uncivil to the relationship between China and Hong Kong.

所以，目前南方的統一計劃是一個漸進的計劃，即北韓慢慢融入南方，開始是一種一國兩制式的政府，不至於像中國和香港的關係那樣不倫不類。

This way, the North keeps the high amount of autonomy, could even keep Kim around for a while and gradually over a few decades, get absorbed into the government of the South.

這樣一來，北方保持高額的自主權，甚至可以讓金正日在身邊呆一段時間，幾十年後逐漸被南方政府吸收。

But things could obviously go pretty differently.

但事情的發展顯然可能很不一樣。

North Korea could theoretically collapse seemingly overnight, the same way that East Germany did, which could lead to a whole list of possible crazy scenarios.

理論上，北韓可能會在一夜之間看似崩潰，就像東德一樣，這可能會導致一系列可能的瘋狂情況。

Fast Korean reunification would dramatically upset the balance of power in Asia, just like the reunification of Germany did in Europe, and as far as China would be concerned, it would be a disaster.

快速的北韓統一將極大地破壞亞洲的力量平衡，就像德國統一歐洲一樣，對於中國來說，這將是一場災難。

The flood of unskilled and uneducated North Korean migrants may move south, or they may move north into Manchuria, which would be a massively destabilizing event for China, especially when you consider that a unified Korea could further inflame ethnic nationalism.

沒有技術、沒有文化的北韓移民潮可能會南下，也可能會北上進入滿洲，這對中國來說是一個巨大的不穩定事件，特別是當你考慮到一個統一的北韓可能會進一步激化種族民族主義。

Among the millions of Koreans that already live in China across the border and as the other emerging global superpower, China worries that it is being actively contained by the other global superpower.

在已經隔著國境線生活在中國的數百萬朝鮮人中，作為全球另一個新興的超級大國，中國擔心自己被另一個全球超級大國積極遏制。

The United States, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines are all considered major allies of the US, which, interestingly, all seem to be located close to China and could be used the block Chinese expansion.

美國、韓國、日本、臺灣和菲律賓都被認為是美國的主要盟友，有趣的是，這些盟友似乎都離中國很近，可以用來阻擋中國的擴張。

China obviously resents this, and they use North Korea as essentially a buffer state in East Asia between themselves and the U.

中國顯然很反感這一點，他們把北韓作為東亞地區自己和美國之間的一個緩衝國。

If North Korea suddenly collapsed, though, it might mean South Korean soldiers or, worse yet, American soldiers moving in and setting up bases on China's very border, which the Chinese Communist Party could never accept.

不過，如果北韓突然崩潰，可能意味著韓國阿兵哥，或者更糟糕的是，美國士兵進駐，在中國的邊境建立基地，這是中國共產黨永遠無法接受的。

If it looked like North Korea would quickly join the United Korea that would maintain a close alliance with the US, China would almost certainly intervene to prevent it, just like they did the last time this almost happened in the Korean War, China might just outright invade North Korea on their own and take the country over themselves to prevent it from falling into the hands of the US led alliance.

如果看起來北韓會迅速加入與美國保持緊密聯盟的聯合韓國，中國幾乎肯定會出面阻止，就像上次在朝鮮戰爭中差點發生這種情況一樣，中國可能會直接自己入侵北韓，把北韓交給自己，以防止北韓落入美國為首的聯盟手中。

In order to have any hope of being successful, a United Korea would have to walk a fine line between China and the United States and probably strive their best towards neutrality.

為了有任何成功的希望，一個聯合的韓國必須在中美之間走一條微妙的路線，可能會盡力爭取中立。

Going too far towards America wouldn't infuriate China with the prospect of another country falling out of their orbit into the American sphere.

對美國走得太遠，也不會激怒中國，因為又有一個國家脫離他們的軌道，進入美國的範圍。

But going too far towards China would cause uneasiness in both America and Japan.

但對中國走得太遠，會引起美國和日本的不安。

However it goes, though, the initial costly investment and reunification would eventually pay off for the Korean people as a whole.

不過，無論如何，最初的昂貴投資和統一最終都會給整個北韓人民帶來回報。

By 2050 Korea would likely already be ranked among the global great powers.

到2050年，韓國很可能已經躋身全球大國行列。

For the first time in history, she would have at least the seventh largest economy in the world and likely even higher than that.

歷史上第一次，她將至少擁有世界第七大經濟體，甚至可能比這更高。

Some economists even expect that a unified Korea could eventually overshadow even Japan to become the world's third largest economy, remaining only behind China and the United States.

一些經濟學家甚至預計，統一後的韓國最終可能會讓日本都黯然失色，成為世界第三大經濟體，僅次於中國和美國。

Korea would have an enormous population around 80 million strong, with some of the most advanced technology in the world, the largest standing military on the planet, potentially dozens of nuclear weapons if they decided to keep them, and on incredibly strategic geographic location at the crossroads of the most valuable trade route in the entire world between the world's 2nd and 3rd largest economies today, Korea would be a great power.

韓國將擁有8000萬左右的龐大人口，擁有世界上最先進的技術，擁有地球上最大的常備軍，如果他們決定保留核武器的話，可能會有幾十枚核武器，而且在當今世界第二大經濟體和第三大經濟體之間的最有價值的貿易路線的十字路口上，韓國將成為一個大國。

But the road to get there is long and difficult.

但要達到這個目的，路途漫長而艱難。

Before I made this video, I've been mostly stuck in my house, not really doing anything for the past couple of weeks.

在我做這個視頻之前，我主要是困在家裡，過去幾周都沒有真正做什麼。

If you can relate to that, then you're probably getting pretty bored just like I am.

如果你能體會到這一點，那麼你可能會像我一樣感到很無聊。

And I've got the perfect thing to suggest you go do next.

我有一個完美的事情，建議你下一步去做。

This great class on making cinema style iPhone filmmaking by Niles Gray and Caleb Babcock that's available right now on skill share perfect for feeding your creative side while you're stuck at home.

這個偉大的班級在製作電影風格的iPhone電影製作由奈爾斯-格雷和Caleb Babcock，現在可以在技能共享完美的餵你的創意方面，而你被困在家裡。

Skill share is, of course, on online learning community, with millions of members who want to further their own creative goals.

當然，技能分享是在在線學習社區上，擁有數百萬想要進一步實現自己創作目標的會員。

When your member you can take the class that I mentioned and thousands of others on pretty much any subject you can imagine, it's perfect for learning something while you're stuck at home to advance your career, to help you in school or to just have fun.

當你的會員，你可以採取我提到的類和成千上萬的其他幾乎任何主題，你可以想象，這是完美的學習東西，而你被困在家裡推進你的職業生涯，幫助你在學校或只是有樂趣。

 But best of all, you can get two whole months for free when you're one of the 1st 1000 to sign up by clicking the link in the description or by going to scale dot Shh slash real life floor 30 and you'll get access to their thousands of classes for less than $10 a month when you sign up for an annual subscription afterwards, and it's always thank you for watching. 

但最棒的是，當你是第1000個註冊的人之一，點擊描述中的鏈接，或者進入尺度點什斜線真人30樓，就可以免費獲得整整兩個月的課程，之後你註冊年費時，每月不到10元就可以使用他們的上千門課程，而且看了總要感謝你。

字幕列表影片播放

如果韓國聯合成一個國家會怎樣？ (What Would Happen if Korea United Into 1 Country?)

stick

potential

eventually

massive