John Doerr: Hello, Hal!

你好，哈爾！

Hal Harvey: John, nice to see you.

哈爾・哈維。約翰，很高興見到你。

JD: Nice to see you too.

JD：也很高興見到你。

HH: So John, we've got a big challenge.

HH：所以，約翰，我們有一個很大的挑戰。

We need to get carbon out of the atmosphere.

我們需要把大氣中的碳排出。

We need to stop emitting carbon,

我們需要停止排放碳。

drive it to zero by 2050.

到2050年將其降至零。

And we need to be halfway there by 2030.

而我們需要在2030年之前達到一半的目標。

Where are we now?

我們現在在哪裡？

JD: As you know, we're dumping 55 billion tons

如你所知，我們正在傾倒550億噸的垃圾

of carbon pollution in our precious atmosphere every year,

每年在我們寶貴的大氣中造成的碳汙染。

as if it's some kind of free and open sewer.

彷彿這是某種自由開放的下水道。

To get halfway to zero by 2030,

到2030年實現半數為零。

we're going to have to reduce annual emissions

我們將不得不減少每年的排放量。

by about 10 percent a year.

每年增加10%左右。

And we've never reduced annual emissions in any year

而且我們從來沒有減少過任何一年的年排放量。

in the history of the planet.

在地球的歷史上。

So let's break this down.

所以我們來分析一下。

Seventy-five percent of the emissions

排放量的75%

come from the 20 largest emitting countries.

來自20個最大排放國。

And from four sectors of their economy.

而從其經濟的四個部門來看。

The first is grid.

第一個是網格。

Second, transportation.

第二，交通。

The third from the buildings.

第三種來自建築物。

And the fourth from industrial activities.

第四種來自工業活動。

We've got to fix all those, at speed and at scale.

我們必須解決所有這些問題，速度和規模。

HH: We do.

HH：我們是這樣的。

And matters are in some ways worse than we think and some ways better.

而事情在某些方面比我們想象的要糟糕，而在某些方面又比我們想象的要好。

Let me start with the worse.

讓我從更糟糕的開始說起。

Climate change is a wicked problem.

氣候變化是一個邪惡的問題。

And what do I mean by wicked problem?

那我說的惡性問題是什麼意思呢？

It means it's a problem that transcends geographic boundaries.

這意味著這是一個超越地理界限的問題。

The sources are everywhere, and the impacts are everywhere.

源頭無處不在，影響也無處不在。

Although obviously some nations have contributed much more than others.

雖然顯然有些國家的貢獻比其他國家大得多。

In fact, one of the terrible things about climate change

事實上，氣候變化的可怕之處在於

is those who contributed least to it will be hurt the most.

是那些對此貢獻最小的人將受到最大的傷害。

It's a great inequity machine.

這是一個偉大的不公平的機器。

So here we have a problem that you cannot solve

所以我們這裡有一個你無法解決的問題。

within the national boundaries of one country,

在一個國家的國界內。

and yet international institutions are notoriously weak.

然而，國際機構是眾所周知的軟弱無力。

So that's part of the wicked problem.

所以這也是邪惡問題的一部分。

The second element of the wicked problem is it transcends normal timescales.

邪惡問題的第二個要素是它超越了正常的時間尺度。

We're used to news day by day,

我們已經習慣了一天天的新聞。

or quarterly reports for business enterprises,

或商業企業的季度報告。

or an election cycle -- that's about the longest we think anymore of.

或一個選舉週期 -- 這是我們認為最長的時間了。

Climate change essentially lasts forever.

氣候變化基本上會永遠持續下去。

When you put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere,

當你把二氧化碳放進大氣中時，

it's there, or its impacts are there, for 1,000 years.

它在那裡，或者它的影響在那裡，1000年。

It's a gift we keep on giving for our children, our grandchildren

這是我們為我們的孩子，我們的孫子不斷送出的禮物。

and dozens and dozens of generations beyond there.

以及那裡以後的幾十代人。

JD: It sounds like a tax we keep on paying.

JD：這聽起來就像我們一直在交的稅。

HH: Yeah, it is. It is.

HH：是的，它是。是的，它是。

You sin once, you pay forever.

一朝犯錯，終身受罰

And then the third element of it being a wicked problem

然後第三個因素是它是一個邪惡的問題。

is that carbon dioxide is embedded in every aspect of our industrial economy.

是二氧化碳已經嵌入到我們工業經濟的方方面面。

Every car, and every truck, and every airplane, and every house,

每一輛車，每一輛卡車，每一架飛機，每一座房子。

and every electrical socket, and every industrial processes

和每一個電源插座，以及每一個工業流程

now emits carbon dioxide.

現在排放二氧化碳。

JD: So what's the recipe?

JD：那有什麼配方？

HH: Well, here's the shortcut.

HH：嗯，這是捷徑。

If you decarbonize the grid, the electrical grid,

如果你把電網去碳化，電網。

and then run everything on electricity --

然後用電運行一切 -

decarbonize the grid and electrify everything --

電網低碳化和萬物電氣化-------------------------。

if you do those two things, you have a zero carbon economy.

如果你做了這兩件事，你就有了一個零碳經濟。

Now, that would seem like a pipe dream just a few years ago

現在看來，這在幾年前簡直是天方夜譚。

because it was expensive to create a zero-carbon grid.

因為建立零碳電網的成本很高。

But the prices of solar and wind have plummeted.

但太陽能和風能的價格卻大幅下降。

Solar's now the cheapest form of electricity on planet earth

太陽能現在是地球上最便宜的電力形式。

and wind is second.

而風是其次。

It means now that you can convert the grid to zero-carbon rapidly

這意味著現在你可以迅速地將電網轉換為零碳。

and save consumers money along the way.

並沿途為消費者省錢。

So there's leverage.

所以有槓桿作用。

JD: Well, I think a key question, Hal, is do we have the technology that we need

JD：嗯，我認為一個關鍵的問題，哈爾，是我們是否有我們需要的技術。

to replace fossil fuels to get this job done?

以取代化石燃料來完成這項工作？

And my answer is no.

而我的答案是否定的。

I think we're about 70, maybe 80 percent of the way there.

我想我們已經完成了70％，也許80％的路程。

For example, we urgently need a breakthrough in batteries.

比如，我們急需在電池方面有所突破。

Our batteries need to be higher energy density.

我們的電池需要更高的能量密度。

They need to have enhanced safety, faster charging.

他們需要有更強的安全性，更快的充電速度。

They need to take less space and less weight,

它們需要佔用更少的空間和更少的重量。

and above all else, they need to cost a lot less.

而最重要的是，它們的成本要低得多。

In fact, we need new chemistries that don't rely on scarce cobalt.

事實上，我們需要不依賴稀缺鈷的新化學試劑。

And we're going to need lots of these batteries.

我們需要很多這樣的電池。

We desperately need much more research in clean energy technology.

我們迫切需要更多的清潔能源技術研究。

The US invests about 2.5 billion dollars a year.

美國每年投資約25億美元。

Do you know how much Americans spend on potato chips?

你知道美國人在薯片上花了多少錢嗎？

HH: No.

HH：沒有。

JD: The answer is 4 billion dollars.

JD：答案是40億美金。

Now, what do you think of that?

現在，你覺得怎麼樣？

HH: Upside down.

HH：顛倒了。

But let me press a little further

但讓我再往前推一下

on a question that's fascinated me about the Silicon Valley.

在一個讓我著迷的問題上，硅谷。

So the Silicon Valley is governed by Moore's law,

所以硅谷是受摩爾定律支配的。

where performance doubles every 18 months.

其中業績每18個月翻一番。

It's not really a law, it's an observation,

這不是真正的法律，而是一種觀察。

but be that as it may.

但儘管如此

The energy world is governed by much more mundane laws,

能源世界受更多的世俗法則支配。

the laws of thermodynamics, right?

熱力學定律，對吧？

It's physical stuff in the economy.

是經濟中的實物。

Cement, trucks, factories, power plants.

水泥、卡車、工廠、電廠。

JD: Atoms, not bits.

JD：原子，不是比特。

HH: Atoms, not bits. Perfect.

HH：原子，不是比特。完美。

And the transformation of big physical things is slower,

而大的物理事物的轉變是比較慢的。

and the margins are worse, and often the commodities are generic.

且利潤率較差，往往商品是通用的。

How do we stimulate the kind of innovation in those worlds

我們如何刺激這些世界的創新？

that we actually need in order to save this planet earth?

為了拯救地球，我們真的需要嗎？

JD: Well, that's a really great question.

JD：嗯，這是一個非常好的問題。

The innovation starts with basic science in research and development.

創新要從研發的基礎科學開始。

And the American commitment to that, while advanced on a global sense,

而美國對此的承諾，雖然在全球意義上推進。

is still paltry.

仍然是微不足道的。

It needs to be 10 times higher

要高出10倍

than the, say, 2.5 billion per year that we spend on clean energy R and D.

比比如說，我們每年花在清潔能源研發上的25億。

But we need to go beyond R and D as well.

但我們也需要超越R和D。

There needs to be a kind of development, a kind of pre-commercialization,

需要有一種發展，一種預商業化。

which in the US is done by a group called ARPA-E.

這在美國是由一個叫ARPA-E的組織完成的。

Then there's the matter of forming new companies.

還有就是組建新公司的問題。

HH: Yes.

HH：是的。

JD: And I think entrepreneurial energy is shifting back into that field.

JD：而且我認為創業的能量正在重新轉移到這個領域。

It's clear that it takes longer and more capital,

很明顯，這需要更長的時間和更多的資本。

but you can build a really substantial and valuable enterprise or company.

但你可以建立一個真正有規模、有價值的企業或公司。

HH: Yes.

HH：是的。

JD: Tesla's a prime example. Beyond Meat is another one.

JD：特斯拉就是一個典型的例子。Beyond Meat是另一個。

And that's inspiring entrepreneurs globally.

而這也激勵著全球的企業家們。

But that's not enough.

但這還不夠。

I think you need also a demand signal, in the form of policies and purchases,

我認為你還需要一個需求信號，以政策和購買的形式。

from nations, like Germany did with solar, to go make these markets happen.

從國家，就像德國對太陽能一樣，去實現這些市場。

And so I'm, at heart, a capitalist.

所以我的內心，是一個資本家。

I think this energy crisis is the mother of all markets.

我認為這次能源危機是所有市場之母。

And it will take longer.

而且時間會更長。

But the market for electric vehicle batteries -- 500 billion dollars a year.

但電動車電池的市場--每年5000億美金。

It's probably another 500 billion dollars if you go to stationary batteries.

如果你去做固定電池，可能又是5000億美金。

I want to tell you another story that involves policy,

我還想給大家講一個涉及政策的故事。

but importantly, plans.

但重要的是，計劃。

Now, Shenzhen is a city of 15 million people,

現在，深圳是一個擁有1500萬人口的城市。

an innovative city, in China.

一個創新型城市，在中國。

And they decided that they were going to move to electric buses.

而且他們決定要改用電動巴士。

And so they required all buses be electric.

於是他們要求所有的公車都是電動的。

In fact, they required parking spots have chargers associated with them.

事實上，他們要求停車點有相關的充電器。

So today, Shenzhen has 18,000 electric buses.

所以，如今深圳有1.8萬輛電動公車。

It has 21,000 electric taxis.

它擁有21000輛電動計程車。

And this goodness didn't just happen.

而這種美好並不是隨便發生的。

It was the result of a thoughtful, written, five-year plan

這是一個經過深思熟慮的書面五年計劃的結果。

that isn't just a kind of campaign promise.

這不僅僅是一種競選承諾。

Executing against these plans is how mayors get promoted, or fired.

對照這些計劃執行，就是市長們的升遷，或者被解僱的方式。

And so it's really deadly serious.

所以這真的是致命的嚴重。

It has to do with carbon, and it has to do with health, with jobs,

這與碳有關，與健康有關，與就業有關。

and with overall economic strength.

並與整體經濟實力。

The bottom line is that China today has 420,000 electric buses.

最重要的是，中國如今有42萬輛電動公車。

America has less than 1,000.

美國只有不到1000個。

So what other national projects are there that you'd like to see?

那麼還有哪些國家項目是你想看到的呢？

HH: So this is a global effort,

HH：所以這是一個全球性的努力。

but not everybody's going to do the same thing,

但不是每個人都會做同樣的事情。

or should do the same thing.

或應該做同樣的事情。

Let me start with Norway.

讓我先說說挪威。

A country that happens to be brilliant at offshore oil,

一個國家，恰好是海上石油的輝煌。

but also understands the consequences of burning more oil.

但也明白多燒油的後果。

They realized they could deploy their skills

他們意識到他們可以運用自己的技能

from their offshore oil development into offshore wind.

從其海上石油開發進入海上風電。

It's a big deal to put wind turbines out in the ocean.

把風力發電機放在海里是件大事。

The ocean, the winds are much stronger,

海洋，風更大。

and the winds are much more constant, not only stronger.

而且風向更恆定，不僅風力更強。

So it balances the grid beautifully.

所以它能很好地平衡格局。

But it's really hard to build things in the deep ocean.

但在深海里造東西真的很難。

Norway's good at it.

挪威的擅長。

So let them take that on.

所以讓他們來承擔。

JD: Are they taking it on?

JD：他們會接受嗎？

HH: They are actually.

HH：其實他們是。

Yeah. It's pretty brilliant.

是啊，非常棒

Another example: India.

另一個例子。印度。

There are hundreds of millions of people in India

印度有幾億人

that don't have access to electricity.

不通電的地方。

With the advances in solar and advances in batteries,

隨著太陽能的發展和電池的進步。

there's no reason they have to build the grid

他們沒有理由非要建設電網

to all those villages that don't have a grid.

給所有沒有電網的村莊。

Skip the steps.

跳過這些步驟。

Skip the dirty steps. Leapfrog to clean.

跳過骯髒的步驟。躍進式清潔。

But this all comes together, in my opinion, in the realm of policy.

但在我看來，這一切都歸結於政策領域。

We need dramatic accelerants, is what you're saying.

我們需要戲劇性的加速劑，是你說的。

Accelerants in R and D, but also accelerants in deployment.

R和D的加速劑，也是部署的加速劑。

Deployment is innovation because deployment drives prices down.

部署就是創新，因為部署會促使價格下降。

The right policy can turn things around,

正確的政策可以扭轉局面。

and we've seen it happen already in the electricity sector.

我們已經看到它發生在電力部門。

So electricity regulators have asked for ever cleaner sources of electricity:

所以電力監管部門要求不斷清潔電力來源。

more renewables, less coal, less natural gas.

更多的可再生能源，更少的煤炭，更少的天然氣；

And it's working.

而且它的工作。

It's working pretty brilliantly, actually.

事實上，它的工作相當出色。

But it's not enough.

但這還不夠。

So the German government recognized the possibility

所以德國政府認識到了這種可能性

of driving down the price of clean energy.

的，推動清潔能源價格下降。

And so they put in orders on the books.

於是他們把訂單記在賬上。

They agreed to pay an extra price for early phases of solar energy,

他們同意為太陽能的早期階段支付額外的價格。

presuming the price would drop.

假設價格會下跌。

They created the demand signal using policy.

他們利用政策創造了需求信號。

The Chinese created a supply signal, also using policy.

中國人創造了一個供給信號，也是利用政策。

They decided that solar was a strategic part of their future economy.

他們決定，太陽能是他們未來經濟的戰略部分。

So you had this unwritten agreement between the two countries,

所以你們兩國之間有這個不成文的協議。

one buying a lot, the other producing a lot,

一個買了很多，另一個生產了很多。

that helped drive the price down 80 percent.

這有助於推動價格下降80%。

We should be doing that with 10 technologies, or a dozen,

我們應該用10種技術，或者十幾種技術來做。

around the world.

世界各地的。

We need policy as the magic sauce

我們需要政策作為法寶

to go through those four sectors in the biggest countries,

要通過這四個部門在最大的國家。

in all countries.

在所有國家。

And one of the things that animates me

而其中一件事，讓我很興奮

is that this requires people who are concerned about climate change,

是，這需要關注氣候變化的人。

which should be everybody,

這應該是大家。

those folks have to apply their energies on the policies that matter

這些人必須把他們的精力用在重要的政策上。

with the decision-makers who matter.

與重要的決策者一起。

If you don't know who the decision-maker is

如果你不知道誰是決策者

to decarbonize the grid,

以實現電網的低碳化。

or to produce electric vehicles in the policy world,

或在政策界生產電動汽車。

you're really not in the game.

你真的不在遊戲中。

JD: Hal, you're an expert in policy.

JD：哈爾，你是政策方面的專家。

I know this because I've read your book --

我知道這一點，因為我讀過你的書... ...

HH: Thanks, John.

HH：謝謝，約翰。

JD: Designing Climate Solutions.

JD：設計氣候解決方案。

What makes for good policy?

什麼才是好政策？

HH: There are some secrets here,

HH：這裡有一些祕密。

and they're really important if we want to solve climate change.

如果我們想解決氣候變化問題，它們真的很重要。

Let me give you two of the secrets.

讓我給你兩個祕密。

First, you have to go where the tons are.

首先，你得去噸位所在的地方。

JD: Follow the tons.

JD：按照噸。

HH: Follow the tons.

HH：按照噸。

And this is such an obvious idea,

而這是一個如此明顯的想法。

but it's amazing how many policies tinker around the edges.

但令人驚訝的是，很多政策都在邊緣修修補補。

I call it green paint.

我叫它綠色塗料。

We don't need green paint. We need green substance.

我們不需要綠色塗料。我們需要綠色的物質。

The second thing is when you set a policy, insist on continuous improvement.

二是在制定政策時，要堅持持續改進。

So what does that mean?

那麼這意味著什麼呢？

Back in 1978, Jerry Brown was the youngest governor in California's history,

早在1978年，傑裡-布朗是加州歷史上最年輕的州長。

and he implemented a thermal building code,

並且他實施了建築熱工規範。