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  • Today we go into what they're calling down.

    今天我們就來了解一下他們所說的下。

  • Lock lock down 2.0, full tier four locked down for the entire country or the United Kingdom.

    鎖定鎖定2.0,對全國或英國進行全面四級鎖定。

  • And there's a lot of people watching from around the world.

    而且全世界有很多人在看。

  • Um, is this the best decision from an economic perspective, in your opinion?

    嗯,在你看來,從經濟角度看,這是最好的決定嗎?

  • And what are some of the costs that this will lead Thio?

    這又會導致哪些成本呢Thio?

  • Well, I think relative to the first lock down which came in the U.

    好吧,我想相對於第一次鎖定,這是在美國。

  • K.

    K.

  • You know, starting toward the end of March and ended up actually lasting almost three months.

    你知道,從3月底開始,到最後居然持續了近三個月。

  • If it does turn out to be one month, then pretty obviously the the economic damage and costs that that will do on indeed the sort of knock on mental health cost would be proportionately lower than the three month locked down.

    如果真的變成了一個月,那麼很明顯的經濟損失和成本,對確實那種敲打心理健康的成本將成比例地低於鎖定的三個月。

  • So at least there's the prospect that it may last significantly less than the lock down that started towards the end off March, and whether or not this one is justified, Um, I think is a tricky judgment.

    所以,至少有前景 它可能持續顯著低於鎖定下來 開始對三月底關閉, 並是否這一個是合理的, 嗯,我認為是一個棘手的判斷。

  • Clearly, with a very difficult position in the U.

    顯然,在美國處境非常困難的情況下。

  • K.

    K.

  • Right now, there are no easy ways forward.

    現在,沒有簡單的出路。

  • The infection has increased a lot on bond I'm sure sage is right that there is a risk, a significant risk off hospitals being overwhelmed in some parts of the country, whether or not a national lock down when we.

    感染已經增加了很多債券我相信聖人是對的,有一個風險,一個重大的風險關閉醫院被壓倒在該國的一些地區,是否全國鎖定,當我們。

  • One thing we do know is that the infection is running at different rates in different parts of the UK.

    我們知道的一件事是,這種感染在英國不同地區以不同的速度運行。

  • Whether a sort of national lock down is the optimal strategy is somewhat less obvious.

    一種全國性的鎖定是否是最佳策略,就有些不太明顯了。

  • But at least if it were in place for four weeks and that does bring down the infection rate rapidly on, then we could start easing the restrictions on Go back to something which is a bit mawr differentiated by region of the UK Um, that would be a less damaging weight forward than than what we had that run through March April on most of May and into June.

    但至少,如果它是在地方四個星期,並帶來了下降的感染率迅速上,然後我們可以開始放寬限制,回到的東西,這是一個有點maowr區分英國地區,嗯,這將是一個破壞性較小的重量向前比我們有什麼,通過運行三月四月五月和六月的大部分。

  • Right now I understand it would be less.

    現在我明白會少一些。

  • I'm just trying toe also try to quantify what this will actually mean because we keep, you know, we we know that, for example, the hospitality sector was kind of barely hanging on.

    我只是想嘗試量化這到底意味著什麼,因為我們一直,你知道,我們知道,比如說,酒店業是一種勉強的堅持。

  • We know that certain businesses were just starting to make a comeback, but now a lot of them have said this extra month is gonna put them out of business.

    我們知道,某些企業剛剛開始捲土重來,但現在很多企業都說,這多出來的一個月要讓他們破產了。

  • That's one thing to hear the anecdotal stories of people losing their businesses.

    那是一回事,聽到的都是一些人失去生意的軼事。

  • But it's great to have an economist like you to talk and to say, Well, how is that gonna actually quantify into lives lost changes in mental health over the coming years?

    但很高興有你這樣的經濟學家來談,並說,好吧,那如何真正量化到未來幾年心理健康方面的生命損失變化?

  • Is there any is there any way toe explain what that is too Well, there's a lot of evidence that if if restrictions that we're about to see in the UK word to cost substantial numbers of jobs because some firms as you say are on the brink already in another 45 weeks might mean that they just don't reopen and therefore you lose jobs not just for a month or two, but maybe permanently.

    是否有任何方法來解釋這是什麼呢? 有很多證據表明,如果我們在英國看到的限制措施會導致大量的工作崗位流失,因為有些公司就像你說的那樣,在45周內已經瀕臨破產,這意味著他們不會重新開業,是以你失去的工作崗位不僅僅是一兩個月,而是可能是永久性的。

  • We do know that the cost off a big reduction in employment, which is likely to last for a substantial period, is very large.

    我們知道,大幅減少就業的代價是非常大的,而且可能會持續相當長的時間。

  • So one of my colleagues at Imperial College, very eminent public health economist, called Carol Proper.

    所以我在帝國學院的一位同事,非常著名的公共衛生經濟學家,叫Carol Proper。

  • She recently produced some analysis.

    她最近做了一些分析。

  • I think it's very careful analysis which would suggest that if you go back to the financial crisis on the scale of job losses in the U K back then in the aftermath of September October 2000 and eight.

    我認為這是非常仔細的分析,這將表明,如果你回到金融危機的規模,當時在2000年9月10月之後,英國的就業損失和八。

  • The job losses that we saw in the UK back then, she estimates, increased the number of people with chronic health conditions by something like 900,000.

    她估計,我們當年在英國看到的工作崗位流失,增加了大約90萬慢性病患者的數量。

  • And they become chronic health conditions with obviously an enormous health and welfare costs stretching far into the future, that those were employment losses on the scale that we saw in 28 29.

    它們成為慢性健康問題,顯然會帶來巨大的健康和福利成本,並將其延伸到未來,這些是我們在28 29中看到的就業損失規模。

  • Right now, employment in the UK is probably down since the pandemic started by at least a much as that.

    現在,英國的就業率自大流行開始以來,可能至少下降了這麼多。

  • So it's very clear that if you have employment costs that are large, the long term damage that that does the welfare of people in the country is absolutely enormous.

    所以非常清楚,如果你的就業成本很大,那對國家人民福利的長期損害絕對是巨大的。

  • That, but I think is very clear.

    這一點,但我認為是非常清楚的。

  • I think what's a little bit more difficult to work out right now, Given that the infection rates have moved up a lot in a short period on, there is no doubt a risk off hospitals being over one in some parts of the country.

    我認為現在的工作有點困難,鑑於感染率在短時間內上升了很多,毫無疑問,醫院在全國某些地區有超過1的風險。

  • Whether a strategy short off a lock down would end up generating, um, such panic in the short run that you'd end up with something as bad as a four week locked down anyway.

    是否策略空頭脫手鎖倉,最終會在短期內產生,嗯,這樣的恐慌,反正你最終會有四周鎖倉這樣的壞事。

  • So I guess where I come down on Aled this is that if what we see right now in the UK is really a short, sharp lock down that succeeds in bringing the infection rate down quickly on, we can ease restrictions back in much of the country within three or four weeks.

    所以,我想我在哪裡下來阿萊德這是,如果我們看到現在在英國真的是一個短暫的,尖銳的鎖定,成功地將感染率迅速下降,我們可以放鬆限制,在該國大部分地區在三或四個星期內。

  • That may well be a sensible strategy.

    這也許是一個明智的策略。

  • On the other hand, if this is a lock down where we think we need to keep this in place more or less indefinitely until a vaccine comes along, I think it's likely to be a very, very damaging strategy on one which would not pass any sensible cost benefits analysis.

    另一方面,如果這是一個鎖定,我們認為我們需要保持這個地方或多或少無限期,直到疫苗出現,我認為這很可能是一個非常,非常有害的策略,不會通過任何合理的成本效益分析。

  • So the question is, what is it we're about to embark on in the UK?

    那麼問題是,我們在英國即將開始的是什麼?

  • Is it really the short, sharp three or four weeks, or is it a more open ended thing that we end up needing to keep in place?

    真的是短平快的三四個星期,還是我們最終需要保持一個比較開放的東西?

  • Or at least the government thinks we need to keep in place for much longer?

    或者至少政府認為我們需要保持更長時間的原地踏步?

  • And I think it's very unlikely that second sort of lock down would pass any kind of sensible cost benefit analysis.

    而且我認為,第二種鎖定方式不太可能通過任何一種合理的成本效益分析。

Today we go into what they're calling down.

今天我們就來了解一下他們所說的下。

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A2 初級 中文 鎖定 成本 英國 感染率 分析 地區

鎖定2.0。第二次封鎖可能導致的代價是什麼? (LOCKDOWN 2.0: What Are Some Of The Costs This Second Lockdown Could Lead To - Professor David Miles)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2020 年 11 月 19 日
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