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  • At every stage of our lives

    在我們生命的每個階段,

  • we make decisions that will profoundly influence

    我們都會做出一些決定, 這些決定會深刻影響

  • the lives of the people we're going to become,

    未來我們自己的生活,

  • and then when we become those people,

    當我們成為未來的自己時,

  • we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

    我們並不總是對過去 做過的決定感到高興。

  • So young people pay good money

    所以年輕人花很多錢

  • to get tattoos removed that teenagers

    洗去當還是青少年時

  • paid good money to get.

    花了很多錢做上的紋身。

  • Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

    中年人急著跟

  • who young adults rushed to marry.

    年輕時迫不及待想結婚的人離婚。

  • Older adults work hard to lose

    老年人很努力的揮霍著

  • what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

    作為中年人時不停工作所賺的錢。

  • On and on and on.

    如此沒完沒了。

  • The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

    作為一個心理學家, 讓我感興趣的問題是,

  • why do we make decisions

    為什麼我們會做出

  • that our future selves so often regret?

    讓自己將來常常後悔的決定?

  • Now, I think one of the reasons --

    我認為其中一個原因——

  • I'll try to convince you today

    而我今天想說服你們的——,

  • is that we have a fundamental misconception

    就是我們對時間的力量

  • about the power of time.

    有個基本的錯誤概念。

  • Every one of you knows that the rate of change

    你們每個人都知道變化的速度

  • slows over the human lifespan,

    隨著人的年齡增長不斷放慢,

  • that your children seem to change by the minute

    孩子們好像每分鐘都有變化,

  • but your parents seem to change by the year.

    而父母們的變化則要慢得多。

  • But what is the name of this magical point in life

    那麼生命中這個讓變化

  • where change suddenly goes

    突然間從飛速變得緩慢的

  • from a gallop to a crawl?

    神奇轉捩點應該叫什麼呢?

  • Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

    是青少年時期嗎?是中年時期嗎?

  • Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

    是老年階段嗎? 其實對大多數人來說,

  • for most people, is now,

    答案是,現在,

  • wherever now happens to be.

    無論現在發生在什麼。

  • What I want to convince you today

    今天我想讓大家明白的是,

  • is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

    我們所有人都在圍繞著 一種錯覺生活,

  • an illusion that history, our personal history,

    這種錯覺就是,我們每個人的過去,

  • has just come to an end,

    都已經結束了,

  • that we have just recently become

    我們已經成為了

  • the people that we were always meant to be

    我們應該成為的那種人,

  • and will be for the rest of our lives.

    在餘下的生命中也都會如此。

  • Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

    我想給你們展示一些資料 來支持這個觀點。

  • So here's a study of change in people's

    這是一項關於人們的個人價值觀

  • personal values over time.

    隨時間變化的研究。

  • Here's three values.

    這裡有3種價值觀。

  • Everybody here holds all of them,

    每個人的生活都與這三個價值觀相關,

  • but you probably know that as you grow,

    但是你們可能知道, 隨著你們慢慢長大,

  • as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

    變老,這三個價值觀的平衡點 會不斷變化。

  • So how does it do so?

    到底是怎麼回事呢?

  • Well, we asked thousands of people.

    我們詢問了數千人。

  • We asked half of them to predict for us

    我們讓他們當中一半的人預測了一下

  • how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

    在未來10年中, 他們的價值觀會發生多大的改變,

  • and the others to tell us

    讓另一半人告訴我們

  • how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

    在過去的10年中, 他們的價值觀發生了多大的變化。

  • And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

    這項調查可以讓我們做一個很有趣的分析,

  • because it allowed us to compare the predictions

    因為它可以讓我們將

  • of people, say, 18 years old,

    大約18歲左右的人的預測同

  • to the reports of people who were 28,

    大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較,

  • and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

    這項分析可以貫穿人的一生。

  • Here's what we found.

    這是我們的發現。

  • First of all, you are right,

    首先,你們是對的,

  • change does slow down as we age,

    隨著我們年齡的增長,變化會減緩。

  • but second, you're wrong,

    第二,你們錯了,

  • because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

    因為這種變化並不像我們想像的那麼慢。

  • At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

    在我們的資料庫從18歲到68歲的 每一個年齡段中,

  • people vastly underestimated how much change

    人們大大的低估了在未來的10年

  • they would experience over the next 10 years.

    他們會經歷多少變化。

  • We call this the "end of history" illusion.

    我們把這叫做“歷史終止”錯覺。

  • To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

    為了讓你們瞭解這種影響有多大,

  • you can connect these two lines,

    你們可以把這兩條線連接起來,

  • and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

    你們現在看到的是18歲的人群

  • anticipate changing only as much

    預期的改變僅僅和

  • as 50-year-olds actually do.

    50歲的人群實際經歷的一樣。

  • Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

    現在不僅僅是價值觀了。 其他的方面都也有變化。

  • For example, personality.

    比如說,人格。

  • Many of you know that psychologists now claim

    你們當中的很多人知道現在心理學家們認為

  • that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

    人格可以分為五個基本維度:

  • neuroticism, openness to experience,

    神經質性,經驗汲取度,

  • agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

    協調性,外向性和道德感。

  • Again, we asked people how much they expected

    回到原來的話題, 我們問人們他們期待未來的10年中

  • to change over the next 10 years,

    自己會有多大的變化,

  • and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

    以及他們在過去的10年中發生了多少變化,

  • and what we found,

    我們發現了,

  • well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

    你們會習慣不斷地看到這個圖表,

  • because once again the rate of change

    因為又一次,變化速率隨著我們的年齡增長

  • does slow as we age,

    減慢了。

  • but at every age, people underestimate

    但是在每一個年齡階段,人們都低估了

  • how much their personalities will change

    在未來的十年中

  • in the next decade.

    他們的人格會發生多大的改變。

  • And it isn't just ephemeral things

    而且不光是像價值觀和人格這樣的

  • like values and personality.

    臨時性的特質。

  • You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

    你們可以問問人們關於他們喜好和厭惡的事,

  • their basic preferences.

    他們基本的偏好。

  • For example, name your best friend,

    比如說,說出你最好朋友的名字,

  • your favorite kind of vacation,

    你最喜歡什麼樣的假期,

  • what's your favorite hobby,

    你最大的愛好是什麼,

  • what's your favorite kind of music.

    你最喜歡什麼樣的音樂。

  • People can name these things.

    人們可以說出這些事情。

  • We ask half of them to tell us,

    我們讓他們當中的一半人告訴我們,

  • "Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

    “你認為這在未來10年內會改變嗎?”

  • and half of them to tell us,

    讓另一半告訴我們,

  • "Did that change over the last 10 years?"

    “這個在過去十年內變化了嗎?”

  • And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

    我們的發現是, 嗯,這個圖你們已經看過2次了,

  • and here it is again:

    再展示一次:

  • people predict that the friend they have now

    人們推測他們現在的朋友

  • is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

    在未來10年中還會是他們的朋友,

  • the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

    他們喜歡的度假之地在未來10年內

  • they'll enjoy in 10 years,

    還會是他們喜歡的地方,

  • and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

    然而,年長10歲的人都會說:

  • "Eh, you know, that's really changed."

    “嗯,你知道,這確實不一樣了。”

  • Does any of this matter?

    這有什麼關係嗎?

  • Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

    這只是一種 並不會有什麼後果的錯誤的預測嗎?

  • No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

    不,這有很大的關係, 我會舉例告訴你們為什麼。

  • It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

    它在很多重要的方面困擾著我們做決定。

  • Bring to mind right now for yourself

    現在想想你們此時此刻

  • your favorite musician today

    最喜歡的音樂人,

  • and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

    還有10年前你們最喜歡的音樂人。

  • I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

    我把我的答案放在大螢幕上作為提示。

  • Now we asked people

    現在我們讓人們

  • to predict for us, to tell us

    預測一下,告訴我們

  • how much money they would pay right now

    他們現在願意付多少錢

  • to see their current favorite musician

    來參加他們現在最喜歡的音樂人

  • perform in concert 10 years from now,

    從現在起10年後的音樂會,

  • and on average, people said they would pay

    平均來講,人們會說他們會付

  • 129 dollars for that ticket.

    129美元買票。

  • And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

    然而,當我們問他們

  • to see the person who was their favorite

    願意付多少錢去看

  • 10 years ago perform today,

    他們10年前喜歡的人現在的演出,

  • they say only 80 dollars.

    他們說只有80塊。

  • Now, in a perfectly rational world,

    那麼,在一個完全理性的世界裡,

  • these should be the same number,

    這兩個數字應該是相同的,

  • but we overpay for the opportunity

    但是我們為沉浸于當前喜好中

  • to indulge our current preferences

    的機會付了更多的錢,

  • because we overestimate their stability.

    因為我們高估了它們的持久性。

  • Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

    為什麼會發生這樣的變化呢? 我們也不是很確定,

  • but it probably has to do

    不過這可能與

  • with the ease of remembering

    記憶的消逝和

  • versus the difficulty of imagining.

    想像的難度相關。

  • Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

    我們中的大多數人都能記得 10年前的我們是什麼樣子,

  • but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

    但是要想像我們會成為什麼樣的人就困難了,

  • and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

    然後我們會錯誤地認為因為很難想像,

  • it's not likely to happen.

    就不太可能會發生。

  • Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

    很遺憾,當人們說“我可想像不出來”,

  • they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

    他們通常是在表達他們缺乏想像力,

  • and not about the unlikelihood

    而不是他們所描述的

  • of the event that they're describing.

    不可能發生的事情。

  • The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

    總而言之,時間是一種強大的力量。

  • It transforms our preferences.

    它改變了我們的喜好。

  • It reshapes our values.

    它重塑了我們的價值觀。

  • It alters our personalities.

    它改變了我們的人格。

  • We seem to appreciate this fact,

    我們似乎會感激這個事實,

  • but only in retrospect.

    但是只在回想過去的時候。

  • Only when we look backwards do we realize

    只有在我們回首過去的時候我們才會認識到

  • how much change happens in a decade.

    在過去的十年裡發生了多麼大的變化。

  • It's as if, for most of us,

    好像,對我們大多數人來說,

  • the present is a magic time.

    當前是個有魔力的時刻。

  • It's a watershed on the timeline.

    它是時間軸上的分水嶺。

  • It's the moment at which we finally

    它是一個使我們最終成為

  • become ourselves.

    我們自己的時刻。

  • Human beings are works in progress

    人類還處在發展變化的過程中,

  • that mistakenly think they're finished.

    卻錯誤地以為他們不會發生任何改變了。

  • The person you are right now

    現在的你

  • is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

    只是處於過渡中,轉瞬即逝, 暫時的的狀態而已,

  • as all the people you've ever been.

    就像所有那些過去的你。

  • The one constant in our life is change.

    在我們的生命中唯一不變的就是, 變化。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝大家。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

At every stage of our lives

在我們生命的每個階段,

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A2 初級 中文 美國腔 TED 變化 價值觀 人格 音樂人 改變

【TED】丹-吉爾伯特:未來自我的心理學(The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert)。 (【TED】Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self (The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert))

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    Colin Lin 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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