Name: 對選舉之夜及以後的期待 (What to expect on Election Night and beyond)
Uploaded: 2020-11-05T18:48:07.000Z
Duration: 2 min 36 s

我是克里斯-卡恩，路透社民調編輯。

We're gonna find out a lot about America tonight.

今晚我們會發現很多關於美國的事情。

情態副詞

We're gonna find out if voters essentially reject the presidency, the politics of Donald Trump or if they ask for a second helping.

我們會發現，如果選民基本上拒絕總統職位，唐納德-特朗普的政治，或者如果他們要求第二次幫助。

You can't overstate the importance of what's gonna happen today.

你不能誇大今天將要發生的事情的重要性。

We're going to see millions of voters come out, cast their ballots, and the decision that they're gonna be making is going to impact just about everything.

我們將看到數以百萬計的選民出來投票 他們所做的決定將影響到所有的事情。

It's gonna impact what kind of health care system we have.

It's gonna impact whether we have a concerted effort to fight climate change.

這會影響到我們是否有一個協同的努力來應對氣候變化。

We already know that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have vastly different philosophies about how toe handle the coronavirus, which still infects millions of people in this country.

我們已經知道，喬-拜登和唐納德-特朗普對如何處理冠狀病毒，這仍然感染這個國家的數百萬人有巨大不同的哲學。

Pre election polls of totals, a lot about what to expect tonight.

選前民調的總數，很多關於今晚的預期。

First of all, we've seen for quite some time and erosion in Trump's base that is, people who are white and also without a college degree.

首先，我們已經在相當長的時間裡看到了特朗普的基礎，也就是白人，而且也沒有大學學歷的人的侵蝕。

We've seen a decline in support for the president among this group.

我們看到這個群體對總統的支持率在下降。

We also see a decline in support among older Americans.

我們還看到美國老年人的支持率也在下降。

For President Trump, white women with college degrees are much, much more supportive of Democrats this time around, whereas white men with a college degree are still somewhat leaning towards Donald Trump.

對於特朗普總統來說，擁有大學學歷的白人女性這次對民主黨的支持度要高很多很多，而擁有大學學歷的白人男性還是有些傾向於特朗普。

Finally, we're looking very closely at minorities.

最後，我們正在密切關注少數民族。

Hispanics are crucial for winning battleground states like Arizona and in Florida will be seeing if they actually do indeed turn out and do make a difference.

西班牙裔是贏得亞利桑那州等戰場州的關鍵，而在佛羅里達州將看到他們是否真的會出動，並確實有所作為。

Uh, and finally African Americans, especially in the Rust Belt.

呃，最後是非裔美國人，尤其是在鐵鏽帶。

We know that four years ago that African Americans did not turn out as much as expected in places like Wisconsin and really help when that state for Donald Trump and actually the presidency.

我們知道，四年前，非洲裔美國人在威斯康星州等地沒有像預期的那麼多，真正幫助時，該州為唐納德-特朗普和實際上的總統職位。

So ah, lot of what we know about the race so far is based on pre election polls.

所以啊，目前我們所知道的很多關於比賽的資訊都是基於選前的民調。

Now these polls are based on two big assumptions.

現在這些民調是基於兩個大的假設。

First, that people who say that they're gonna vote actually do so.

首先，說要投票的人，其實也是這樣做的。

And secondly, people who do vote are gonna have their votes counted.

其次，投票的人的票數也會被計算在內。

There is a margin of error associated with both of those measurements.

這兩種測量方法都有一定的誤差。

Okay, let's talk about expectations for today.

好了，我們來談談今天的期望。

We're gonna expect to see an early lead for Joe Biden in some of the key battleground states, specifically Florida and North Carolina, and that's largely because these States count their mail in ballots.

我們預計喬-拜登會在一些關鍵的戰場州，特別是佛羅里達州和北卡羅來納州提前領先，這主要是因為這些州會計算他們的郵寄選票。

First, it's gonna be the opposite in the Rust Belt.

These are states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan who count there in person balance first and their mail in ballots Second.

這些州如威斯康星州、賓夕法尼亞州和密歇根州，他們首先計算本人的餘額，其次才是郵寄的選票。

So we're going to see an early lead for Donald Trump in the rust belt that solely disappears over time as those states count their mail in balance.

所以我們會看到唐納德-特朗普在鐵鏽地帶的早期領先優勢，隨著時間的推移，隨著這些州計算郵件餘額，這種領先優勢將完全消失。

We will get an indication early on in the night from some of these battleground states which way this election is going to go.

我們將在晚上早些時候從一些戰地州得到一個訓示，即這次選舉的走向。

 But because of the extended counting for some of these mail in ballots, we may not know the actual winner for days. 

但由於部分郵遞選票的計票時間延長，我們可能好幾天都不知道真正的獲勝者。