When you meet somebody coming out of Syria for the first time, you start to hear the same sentences that everything is OK.

當你第一次遇到從敘利亞出來的人時，你開始聽到同樣的句子，一切都很好。

It'll take like six months upto one year to become a normal human being.

要成為一個正常人，大概需要半年到一年的時間。

For him to say what he thinks, what he feels then he might start whispering.

要他說出他的想法，他的感受，那麼他可能會開始竊竊私語。

He won't speak loudly.

他不會大聲說話。

Much of what I have to say is captured in that passage.

我要說的很多內容，在這段話中都能捕捉到。

I'm going to tell you, Ah, tale that relates to my larger themes.

我要告訴你，啊，與我的大主題有關的故事。

That isn't a quotation, but that's research from Saudi Arabia.

這不是引用，而是沙特阿拉伯的研究。

The background is that, by custom in Saudi Arabia, women aren't in the labor force unless their husbands say it's okay.

背景是，按照沙特的習俗，女性是不參加勞動的，除非丈夫說可以。

In the research, it was found that young Saudi men believe overwhelmingly, that it's completely fine if their wives air working.

在研究中發現，沙特的年輕男性絕大多數認為，如果他們的妻子空氣工作，完全可以。

That is their private judgment.

這是他們的私人判斷。

At the same time, young Saudi men believe that other young Saudi men think it's not at all fine.

同時，沙特男青年認為，其他沙特男青年認為這一點都不好。

Their private judgment departs from their assessment of what the social enormous in the experiment, Saudi men young men were told.

他們私下的判斷與他們對社會巨大的評價相背離，在實驗中，沙特男青年被告知。

Actually, most people like you think it's completely fine.

其實，大多數人和你一樣，都認為這完全沒有問題。

When young Saudi men were informed of what other young Saudi men actually think, they started saying publicly, including to their spouses.

當沙特年輕男子得知其他沙特年輕男子的實際想法後，他們開始公開說，包括對配偶說。

Please go work and job applications skyrocketed.

請去工作，應聘人數暴增。

The Saudi research and the Syrian quotation are the same.

沙特的研究和敘利亞的報價是一樣的。

Their stories of social change coming either in a hurry or slowly as a result of an unleashing of private judgment unleashing which comes from the softening of social norms.

他們的故事中，社會變革或匆匆而來，或緩慢而來，這是私人判斷釋放的結果，而這種釋放來自於社會規範的軟化。

I want toe stress, the unexpected, often shocking nature of successful social movements.

我想趾強調，成功的社會運動的意外性，往往是令人震驚的。

No one sees them coming.

沒有人看到他們的到來。

Lenin was stunned by the success and speed of the Russian revolution.

列寧對俄國革命的成功和速度感到震驚。

Now pause over that Lenin, an architect of the Russian Revolution, had no idea that it would work.

現在暫停一下，列寧作為俄國革命的設計師，根本不知道會有這樣的效果。

Toqueville, the greatest authority on the French Revolution, tells us nobody saw the French Revolution before it happened.

法國大革命最權威的托克維爾告訴我們，在法國大革命發生之前，沒有人看到法國大革命。

More recently, the Iranian revolution of 1979 was wholly unanticipated.

最近，伊朗1979年的革命是完全沒有預料到的。

The participants had no idea it could work more recently.

與會者不知道它可以在最近發揮作用。

Still, the Arab spring was anticipated by the best analysts in the United Kingdom and the United States, and the best analysts in the United Kingdom and the United States air really good.

不過，阿拉伯之春還是被英國和美國最好的分析家預料到了，英國和美國最好的分析家的空氣真的很好。

They had no idea the Arab spring was about to come.

他們不知道阿拉伯之春即將到來。

It's puzzling but true that large movements, including some that were in the midst of and revolutions seemed to come in waves.

雖然令人費解，但事實是，大型運動，包括一些處於和革命中的運動，似乎都是一波一波的。

They spread within countries and from one country to another for reasons that remain mysterious.

它們在國家內部以及從一個國家傳播到另一個國家，其原因仍然是神祕的。

It's characteristic of modern social science to speak of contagion effects, but I wonder if that isn't a metaphor rather than an explanation.

說傳染效應是現代社會科學的特點，但我不知道這是不是一種隱喻，而不是一種解釋。

It's not literally contagious.

這不是字面上的傳染。

It's not like the flu.

它不像流感。

It's contagious in some metaphorical sense.

這在某種隱喻意義上是會傳染的。

So what does it even mean to say that a social movement is contagious?

那麼，什麼叫社會運動具有傳染性呢？

I'm going to try to approach these questions.

我要試著接近這些問題。

Okay, I four moving parts in this approach, the first is preference falsification, by which people often do not say what they're in herself is crying out.

好的，我這個方法有四個動人的地方，第一個是偏好偽裝，通過這個方法，人們往往不說自己在她自己是哭出來的。

That's the story from Syria.

這就是敘利亞的故事。

The second moving part is diverse thresholds.

第二個動人的部分是多樣化的門檻。

The third is interdependencies, which is not about sentiment and Christmas, but instead about how what we do and think is a product of what other people say and do and think.

第三個是相互依存，這不是關於情懷和聖誕節的問題，而是關於我們的所作所為和所思所想是別人說的、做的和想的產物。

And the fourth and final moving part is group polarization, which helps explain how like minded people go to extremes with respect to preference falsification.

而第四個，也是最後一個動人的部分是群體極化，這有助於解釋志同道合的人如何在偏好偽裝方面走極端。

Most of us have a bunch of thoughts inside our heads with respect to our workplace, our town, our family, our country, that we tell nobody about some of those inner thoughts we might be ambivalent about and think they're probably wrong.

我們大多數人腦子裡都有一堆關於工作、城市、家庭、國家的想法，我們誰也不告訴，這些內心的一些想法我們可能會很矛盾，覺得它們可能是錯的。

Some of them carry clear conviction, but as in the case of the Syrian computer programmer at most, we will whisper them.

其中有些人帶著明確的信念，但就像敘利亞計算機程序員的案件一樣，最多，我們會低聲地告訴他們。

We falsify in the public domain what we think privately.

我們在公共領域偽造我們私下的想法。

Second point is that different thresholds for action mean that for some of US injustice and were there, if we see something awful, we will say something or do something instantly.

第二點，行動的門檻不同，意味著對於美國的一些不公正和被，如果我們看到一些可怕的事情，我們會立即說一些話或者做一些事。

Others have high thresholds.

其他人的門檻很高。

They have to be really roused with respect to interdependencies.

在相互依存的問題上，他們必須真正被喚醒。

The suggestion is that most of us are reactive to what other people say and do.

建議我們大多數人都是被動地接受別人的言行。

If one person is doing something calling for social change, extra wires e.

如果一個人在做一些呼籲社會變革的事情，額外的電線e。

We might think crazy person.

我們可能會認為瘋子。

If 1000 people are we might think, Why didn't I join them yesterday?

如果1000人是我們可能會想，為什麼我昨天沒有加入他們？

Many movements are not on Li about the revelation of suppressed preferences, experience, beliefs and values.

很多運動都不是對李關於被壓抑的喜好、經驗、信仰和價值觀的揭示。

They're also about the transformation of all of those things.

它們也是關於所有這些東西的轉變。

So what we observe, in addition to unleashing, is altering pre existing beliefs.

所以，我們觀察到的，除了釋放，就是改變已有的信念。

Any social movement casts a new light on past experiences and tells it to new narrative about, UM, it doesn't merely illicit pre existing judgment.

任何社會運動都會對過去的經驗投下新的光輝，並將其講述給新的敘事，UM，它不僅僅是非法的預存判斷。

It produces novel ones.

它產生新穎的。

Part of the move.

搬家的一部分。

Success of social movements that accomplish what they aim.

成功的社會運動，完成他們的目標。

Teoh is to turn a sense of embarrassment and shame into a sense of dignity.

泰奧就是要把窘迫感和羞恥感變成一種尊嚴感。