Much of Russian history can be summed up in just these five words.

俄羅斯歷史的大部分內容可以用這五個字來概括。

And then things got worse.

然後事情變得更糟。

Back in 1900 the Russian Empire was one of the most powerful nations on earth.

1900年的時候，俄羅斯帝國是地球上最強大的國家之一。

8% of the human population called Russia home and 17% of the Earth's land was directly governed by her.

8%的人類人口以俄羅斯為家，地球上17%的土地由她直接管轄。

But fast forward through a century of disaster, with a world war, a civil war, another world war, the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and tens of millions of deaths along the way.

但快步走過一個世紀的災難，世界大戰、內戰、又一次世界大戰、冷戰、蘇聯崩潰，一路走來，死亡人數數以千萬計。

And you arrive to the situation that Russia finds herself in now, after being invaded by Western European armies twice during the 20th century and with the perceived threat of a third invasion by NATO Cold War era allies, the Soviet Union's that have buffer states like a security system that any invading army would have to break through.

你會發現俄羅斯現在所處的情況，在20世紀被西歐軍隊入侵了兩次，而且北約冷戰時期的盟友蘇聯的盟友也有第三次入侵的威脅，這些盟友的緩衝國就像一個安全系統，任何入侵的軍隊都必須突破。

First, however, in the early 19 nineties, this entire security belt began unraveling.

然而，首先，在19世紀90年代初，這整個安全帶開始解體。

East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, all once loyal members of the security defense system, defected over to the other side, NATO and the European Union.

東德、波蘭、捷克斯洛伐克、匈牙利、羅馬尼亞和保加利亞，都曾經是安全防禦體系的忠實成員，但卻投靠了另一方，即北約和歐盟。

Even worse for Russia.

對俄羅斯來說更糟糕。

The former Soviet Republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all also joined the other side following the collapse of communism, placing the city of ST Petersburg, the second largest city in all of Russia, within a mere 134 kilometers from NATO territory.

前蘇聯的立陶宛、拉脫維亞和愛沙尼亞共和國也都在共產主義解體後加入了對方的陣營，使全俄羅斯第二大城市--聖彼得堡市距離北約領土僅有134公里。

Within a few short years, NATO territory had been pushed all the way from Berlin to the literal doorstep of Russia and all without a shot being fired.

短短几年內，北約的領土已經從柏林一路推到了俄羅斯的家門口，而且都是一槍不發。

But the overall strategic situation for Russia is much worse than that.

但俄羅斯的整體戰略形勢比這更糟糕。

Greece and Turkey are both members of NATO to and could block Russian ships from accessing the Mediterranean Sea.

希臘和土耳其都是北約成員國，以並可能阻止俄羅斯船隻進入地中海。

The U.

U.

S now has a large military presence in Afghanistan, down to the south, right on the border of the old USSR.

斯現在在阿富汗有大量的軍事存在，一直到南部，就在老蘇聯的邊境上。

Japan and South Korea, meanwhile, are strong U.

同時，日本和韓國是美國的強勢。

S allies in the east that can both largely blocked Russia's access to the Pacific if required, and China stands today as a gigantic continental behemoth that could also potentially stand in the way of Russia's continental ambitions in Asia.

斯在東部的盟友，既可以在必要時很大程度上阻斷俄羅斯進入太平洋的通道，而中國今天站在一個巨大的大陸巨頭的位置上，也有可能阻擋俄羅斯在亞洲的大陸野心。

If you were in charge of the Russian government and knowing how the history of the 20th century unfolded for your country, you'd probably be more than just a little nervous about this fragile geopolitical situation.

如果你是俄羅斯政府的負責人，知道20世紀的歷史是如何為你的國家展開的，你可能會對這種脆弱的地緣政治局勢感到緊張不止。

But fear not for a textbook outlining exactly what you should do as the leader of Russia was published for you to follow back in 1997.

但不要害怕，因為早在1997年就出版了一本教科書，概述了你作為俄羅斯領導人到底應該怎麼做，供你參考。

The book is called The Foundations of Geopolitics, and it was written by this cookie dude named Alexander Dugan, basically a step by step playbook for Russia getting out of this dicey situation over the course of the 21st century.

這本書叫《地緣政治的基礎》，是這個叫亞歷山大-杜根的餅乾老兄寫的，基本上是俄羅斯在21世紀的過程中一步步擺脫這種困境的攻略。

It's evidently quite popular within certain political circles inside of Russia and has even apparently been used as a textbook by the Russian General Staff Academy.

顯然在俄羅斯國內的某些政治圈內相當流行，甚至顯然已經被俄羅斯總參謀部學院作為教科書使用。

So here's how it basically would play out if humor in charge and decided to follow it through to the letter.

所以，如果幽默負責，並決定貫徹到底，基本上會有這樣的結果。

First off, let's figure out the situation in Europe.

首先，我們要搞清楚歐洲的情況。

The book recommends that you work as hard as you can to set up in alliance with Germany.

書中建議你儘量努力與德國結盟建立。

You should offer the disconnected Russian territory of Kaliningrad, which used to be a part of Germany, prior to messy World War two, back to them in exchange for this alliance you should offer Germany that once in a lifetime opportunity, no strings attached for real, this time domination over Central and Eastern European, Protestant and Catholic states like maybe Czechoslovakia, Austria and Poland.

你應該把斷絕聯繫的俄羅斯領土加里寧格勒，在亂七八糟的二戰之前，曾經是德國的一部分，還給他們，作為交換，你應該給德國提供那個一生一次的機會，沒有任何附加條件的真正的機會，這次是對中東歐、新教和天主教國家的統治，比如可能是捷克斯洛伐克、奧地利和波蘭。

You know nothing about this should raise any alarms or sound too familiar to the rest of the world.

你對此一無所知，應該引起任何警覺，或者聽起來太熟悉了。

I promise.

我保證。

Once Germany is in your pocket, you need to begin work on convincing France to join in on the fun, one way or another by whatever means you have.

一旦德國被你收入囊中，你就需要開始努力說服法國加入進來，不管你有什麼辦法。

The United Kingdom, though, will probably never join you, so it's going to be better to just cut them off and keep them isolated from the rest of Europe as much as possible, the less the U.

不過，英國可能永遠不會加入你，所以，還是直接把他們斷了吧，儘量讓他們與歐洲其他國家隔絕開來，越少的U。

K.

K.

You can influence the politics of Europe, the better for you.

你可以影響歐洲的政治，對你更好。

As for those pesky Baltic states that you used to control, don't worry.

至於那些你們曾經控制的討厭的波羅的海國家，不用擔心。

Just give Estonia over to Germany, sphere of influence, and let them deal with it.

就把愛沙尼亞交給德國，勢力範圍，讓他們來處理。

It's not like Estonia's already a part of Germany's sphere of influence or anything.

愛沙尼亞又不是德國勢力範圍的一部分或什麼。

Latvia and Lithuania, meanwhile, should either be taken over by you or given us some kind of special status.

同時，拉脫維亞和立陶宛，要麼被你們接管，要麼給予我們某種特殊地位。

Taking over Finland may not have really worked out as well as intended the last time around.

接管芬蘭，可能上次的效果並不盡如人意。

But this time could be different.

但這次可能不同。

While Finland isn't a member of NATO and therefore won't be defended by NATO, probably they are an E U member, which does complicate things.

雖然芬蘭不是北約成員，是以不會受到北約的保護，但可能他們是E U成員，這確實讓事情變得複雜。

But regardless, Finland needs to be slurped up into Russia for this plan to work.

但無論如何，芬蘭需要被吞併到俄羅斯，這個計劃才會成功。

So it's best to strike at the most opportunistic time that you get.

所以最好在最有機會的時候出手。

Poland can get carved up between you and Germany, just like the good old times.

波蘭可以在你和德國之間被瓜分，就像過去的美好時光一樣。

Or it could also be given some kind of a special status Romania, Macedonia, Serbia and Greece.

或者也可以給予羅馬尼亞、馬其頓、塞爾維亞和希臘某種特殊地位。

Should all united team up with you at this point as the fellow Orthodox and floods that they are, you know, despite that whole pesky you thing.

應該在這一點上和你聯合起來，作為東正教的同胞和洪水，他們是，你知道，儘管那整個討厭的你的事情。

Oh, and then there's Ukraine, which is basically just second Russia.

哦，還有烏克蘭，基本上就是第二俄羅斯了。

So just take all that over, using whatever means you can whenever you see a good opportunity just like Finland.

所以，只要看到好的機會，就像芬蘭一樣，利用一切手段，把所有的東西都拿過來。

Okay, so Europe is all good.

好吧，所以歐洲都是好的。

Let's move on to the Middle East and Asian strategy.

我們再來談談中東和亞洲戰略。

Next.

下一個

Iran needs to be a key ally of your new government.

伊朗需要成為你們新政府的重要盟友。

They don't like America.

他們不喜歡美國。

You don't like America.

你不喜歡美國

It will be great in order to help this along, though you could both invade Azerbaijan and divided up between you two.

這將是偉大的，為了幫助這個沿，雖然你可以兩個入侵阿塞拜疆，分給你們兩個。

Nearby Armenia should be made an ally of your new government as well toe further locked down the region.

附近的亞美尼亞應成為貴國新政府的盟友，並進一步鎖定該地區。

But Georgia Georgia should be completely tort apart and eventually absorbed into Russia using whatever means you have available.

但是，格魯吉亞格魯吉亞應該被徹底拆分，並最終用你們現有的任何手段吸收到俄羅斯。

Geopolitical shocks need to be employed in Turkey to keep them distracted from everything else you're doing around them.

土耳其需要採用地緣政治衝擊，讓他們對你在他們周圍所做的一切分心。

While all the countries in Central Asia they used to be Soviet Republics should be reincorporated at some point.

雖然中亞所有的國家他們以前都是蘇維埃共和國，應該在某些時候重新歸併。

If played successfully, most of Western and Central Asia should be yours now, just like most of Europe.

如果玩得成功，現在西亞和中亞大部分地區應該是你的，就像歐洲大部分地區一樣。

Meanwhile, China could pose the biggest challenge to you inside of Asia and therefore China must be destroyed.

同時，中國可能會對你在亞洲裡面構成最大的挑戰，所以中國必須被摧毀。

You should start by absorbing Mongolia because if you've already done everything previously to this, then who's really going to stop you now and then try your best to take over the lesser populated Chinese provinces like Xinjiang and Tibet.

你應該從吸收蒙古開始，因為如果你之前已經把所有的事情都做到這個份上了，那麼現在誰又能真正阻止你，然後盡力去佔領新疆和西藏等中國人口較少的省份。

Before moving on to the Manchuria region, you can compensate China by offering them a Dominion over Southeast Asia, the Philippines and Indonesia instead, since you know you're not going to really use those anyway.

在轉向滿洲地區之前，你可以先補償中國，給他們一個東南亞、菲律賓和印尼的領地，代替他們，因為你知道反正你也不會真的用這些。

As an ally of the United States, Japan must be convinced to leave that all behind.

作為美國的盟友，必須說服日本拋開這一切。

This can hopefully be done by offering Japan back the Curl Islands, which were taken from them by you back in 1945 after the war, combined with an effort to spread as much anti American propaganda as possible in the country.

這一點希望可以通過向日本提供早在1945年戰後就被你們奪走的庫爾群島來實現，再加上在日本國內儘可能多的進行反美宣傳。

And Japan might soon become your friend instead and therefore will probably allow your fleets unrestricted access into the Pacific.

而日本可能很快就會成為你的朋友，是以可能會讓你的艦隊不受限制地進入太平洋。

And finally there's the United States itself, which probably won't just sit back and let you do all of this.

最後是美國自己，美國可能不會坐視不理，讓你做這些事情。

You need to use your special services to infiltrate the country and user espionage tactics to fuel as much instability, separatism and chaos as possible.

你需要利用你的特殊服務來滲透到這個國家，並利用間諜戰術來儘可能多地助長不穩定、分離主義和混亂。

You must actively support every single extremist, isolationist, secessionist and radical group that you can.

你必須積極支持每一個你能支持的極端主義、孤立主義、分裂主義和激進組織。

Even if the support is going to opposing groups, the goal here is simply to cause as much chaos and uncertainty as possible and keep the United States has distracted from world events, and from what you're doing as possible, anti American sentiment and ideologies should simultaneously be encouraged and supported all across the world to so as much global descent with the current world order as possible.

即使支持是去反對的團體，這裡的目標只是為了造成儘可能多的混亂和不確定性，並保持美國已經分散對世界事件的注意力，並從你正在做什麼儘可能，反美國的情緒和意識形態應該同時鼓勵和支持世界各地，所以儘可能多的全球下降與當前的世界秩序。

With the United States hopefully focused on more domestic problems that your spies have exacerbated, you may find the good opportunities to strike elsewhere in Europe and Asia and your work to steadily build back.

希望美國把注意力放在更多的國內問題上，你的間諜加劇了這些問題，你可能會在歐洲和亞洲的其他地方找到打擊的好機會，你的工作也會穩步回升。

Russia's lost power and influence can continue without interference, because if the United States gets directly involved with your shenanigans, it's all probably gonna be over.

俄羅斯失去的權力和影響力可以在沒有干涉的情況下繼續下去，因為如果美國直接參與到你的詭計中，這一切可能都會結束。

The foundations of geopolitics sort of reads like a textbook from an alternate history or timeline.

地緣政治學基礎》有點像另一個歷史或時間線的教科書。

It's kind of fun imagining what the world would be like if everything discussed in the book came true.

想象一下，如果書中討論的一切都成真了，世界會是什麼樣子，還真有點意思。

But unfortunately, the book has never been properly translated from Russian into English.

但遺憾的是，該書從未從俄文正確翻譯成英文。

There's plenty of other books about alternate history that you can actually read about, though, like the Man in the High Castle, which explores a world in which the Axis powers were victorious in World War two or 11 22 63 which explores a world where JFK was never assassinated and both books are available on Audible.

不過還有很多其他關於另類歷史的書，你可以真正讀到，比如《高城堡裡的人》，它探索的是一個軸心國在第二次世界大戰中取得勝利的世界，或者《11 22 63》，它探索的是一個肯尼迪從未被暗殺的世界，這兩本書都可以在Audible上找到。

If you're like me, the best way to fit reading books into a busy schedule is through audible audiobooks.

如果你和我一樣，在繁忙的日程中安排閱讀書籍的最佳方式是通過有聲讀物。

Audible has an enormous library of books and audio programs, including an entire section devoted to alternate history that you can listen to entirely offline anywhere with their APs.

Audible有一個龐大的書庫和音頻節目，包括整個部分專門用於交替歷史，你可以用他們的AP完全脫機在任何地方聽。

Best of all, though, you can sign up for free by clicking the link in the description or by going to audible dot com slash real life floor or text real life floor to 500-500 and download Man in the High Castle 11 22 63 or any other audio book that you want for free, in addition to to audible originals, also for free.

不過最重要的是，你可以點擊描述中的鏈接免費註冊，也可以到audible點com斜線真人樓或發短信真人樓到500-500，免費下載《男人在高堡》11 22 63或其他任何你想要的有聲讀物，此外還有audible原版，也是免費的。

Thank you so much for watching and I'll see you again next week.

謝謝你的觀看，下週再見。