make. Currencies come and go even the U.S. dollar would probably be worthless someday

使。貨幣來來去去，連美元都有可能在某一天一文不值

in the future, but gold has never lost its value through millenniums.

在未來，但黃金歷經千年從未失去價值。

Gold is used in a wide range of industries. Some make jewelry out of it; others use it

黃金被廣泛用於各行各業。有些人用它來製作珠寶，有些人則用它來製作

in the manufacturing of certain electronic and medical devices. And others invest in

在製造某些電子和醫療設備。而其他公司則投資於

it like you probably, since you are watching this video.

它像你可能，因為你正在看這個視頻。

As of April 2020, the price of the gold is $1657, significantly higher than it was let's

截至2020年4月，黃金的價格為1657美元，明顯高於當初讓

say 50 years ago ($300).

說50年前（300美元）。

But the question is, is gold a good investment? Or to be more precise, has gold been a good

但問題是，黃金是好的投資嗎？或者更準確的說，黃金一直是一個好的。

investment? Well, the answer isn't really that simple.

投資？好吧，答案其實沒那麼簡單。

Since the abundance of the gold standard, the world has been overwhelmed with paper

自從金本位制豐盛以來，世界上的紙質文件已經被淹沒了

currencies. It is even difficult to imagine a world where gold is a currency.

貨幣。甚至很難想象一個黃金是貨幣的世界。

But it has been once upon a time not that long ago. However, the modern financial system

但在不久以前，它已經是從前了。然而，現代金融體系

is so complex that we can no longer go back to the gold standard.

是如此複雜，以至於我們不能再回到金本位制。

But what we want to explore in this video

但我們想在這個視頻中探討的是

is, If you have some extra cash in your piggy bank, should buy gold instead of stocks or

是，如果你有一些額外的現金在你的小豬銀行，應該買黃金，而不是股票或。

even real estate. But Before we answer that question, we have

甚至是房地產。但在回答這個問題之前，我們必須

to understand what drives the price of the gold first.

要先了解是什麼推動了黃金的價格。

So, Besides having a unique and beautiful color, unlike other elements. Gold has always

所以，除了擁有獨特而美麗的顏色，不同於其他元素。黃金一直以來

been the most trusted currency. Gold has always been used as a way to pass wealth from one

一直是最值得信賴的貨幣。黃金一直被用來作為一種傳遞財富的方式。

generation to another to preserve their wealth. Because unlike gold, paper currency has always

一代又一代的人，以保存他們的財富。因為和黃金不同，紙幣一直以來

been quite worthless in the long run, but gold has maintained its value throughout the

從長遠來看，黃金是相當不值錢的，但黃金在整個過程中一直保持其價值。

ages.

年齡：

The U.S. dollar has been the most important currency for the last hundred years. Even

在過去的一百年裡，美元一直是最重要的貨幣。甚至

today, countries all across the world have stacks of U.S. dollars in case of emergencies.

如今，世界各國都有一堆美元，以備不時之需。

But even the U.S. dollar isn't a safe heaven because the value of the dollar falls based

但即使是美元也不是一個安全的天堂，因為美元的價值下降基於

on the actions of the FED and the government.  During the margate crises, the economy was

在FED和政府的行動上。 在邊際危機期間，經濟是。

in a deep hole, and the only way the government could save the economy was by injecting trillions

政府唯一能拯救經濟的方法就是注入數萬億的資金。

of dollars into the economy to keep the dice rolling again. But that pushed the investors

的美元投入經濟，以保持骰子再次滾動。但這推動了投資者

to buy more gold and doubled the price of the gold in just four years (2008-2012). In

以購買更多的黃金，並在短短四年內（2008-2012年）使黃金價格翻了一番。在

fact, prior to that, between 1998 to 2008, gold prices have tripled.

事實上，在此之前，從1998年到2008年，黃金價格已經翻了三倍。

Historically speaking, gold has proven itself to be an excellent asset against inflation

從歷史上看，黃金已被證明是抵禦通脹的絕佳資產。

since its price rises together with the cost of living. In fact, whenever inflation significantly

因為它的價格隨著生活成本的上升而上升。事實上，每當通貨膨脹明顯

rises, the price of gold simply soars. And with the modern financial system, financial

漲，黃金的價格就會簡單的飆升。而隨著現代金融體系的發展，金融

crises happen quite often.

危機經常發生。

But a financial crisis means chaos, and that means uncertainty. When it's not clear where

但金融危機意味著混亂，意味著不確定性。當它不清楚的地方

the economy is headed, people want to feel that their wealth is safe, and that's why

經濟的發展方向，人們希望感覺到他們的財富是安全的，這就是為什麼

they turn to gold. During any crisis, gold often becomes the safe heaven that investors

他們轉向黃金。在任何危機中，黃金往往會成為投資者的安全天堂。

look up to. Since, they are confident that, no matter what happens, gold is going to keep

仰望。因為，他們相信，無論發生什麼，黃金都會保持

its value.

其價值。

Even when there is a deflation, when prices are decreasing as it was during the great

即使出現了通貨緊縮，當物價下降時，如在大

depression, gold prices rise.

蕭條，金價上漲。

But that's not all, whenever the public loses confidence in governments, they also tend

但這還不是全部，每當公眾對政府失去信心時，他們也往往會

to turn their reserves into gold quickly. Because political instabilities can lead to

以迅速將其儲備轉化為黃金。因為政治不穩定會導致

chaos and financial crises. Gold prices, for instance, grew during this Brexit deal. When

混亂和金融危機。比如說，金價在這次佈雷斯特協議期間增長。當

world tensions rise, gold prices usually outperform all other investments.

世界緊張局勢升溫，金價的表現通常優於其他所有投資。

But one can argue, with all the technological

但可以說，隨著技術的發展

advancement we have today, what is stopping us from miming more gold and a huge supply

我們今天的進步，是什麼阻止了我們模仿更多的黃金和大量的供應。

would drive the price down.  Well, even with modern technology, it's

會使價格下降。 好吧，即使是現代技術，它的。

not easy to extract gold. Gold mining production has not changed significantly

不易開採黃金。黃金開採產量沒有明顯變化

since 2016. And the main reason for that is, "easy gold" has already been mined; miners

自2016年以來。而主要原因是，"易金 "已經開採完畢；礦工們

now have to dig deeper to access quality gold reserves. And that is much more challenging

現在要想獲得優質的黃金儲量，就必須深入挖掘。而這更具挑戰性

and raises many other problems. Miners are exposed to additional hazards, and the environmental

並引發了許多其他問題。礦工面臨著更多的危險，而環境問題也會影響到他們的生活。

impact is heightened. In other words, it costs more to get less gold. All these factors add

衝擊力增強。換句話說，要想獲得更少的黃金，就要付出更多的代價。所有這些因素都會增加

to the costs of gold mine production and making it less attractive to investors.

到金礦生產成本，使其對投資者的吸引力下降。

Major suppliers of gold in the market since the 1990s have been the central banks, such

20世紀90年代以來，市場上黃金的主要供應者是各國央行，如

as the FED, since Central banks keep gold as one of their significant reserves.

作為FED，因為中央銀行將黃金作為重要儲備之一。

But since the crash of 2008, even the central banks significantly stopped selling their

但自2008年股災以來，即使是央行也明顯停止了出售其

gold reserves. At the same time, the production of new gold from mines had been declining

黃金儲備。同時，礦山的新黃金產量一直在下降。

since 2000. And bringing a new mine into production can take up to a decade.

自2000年以來。而將一個新礦井投入生產可能需要長達十年的時間。

Which all led to the rise of gold prices. The demand for gold might decline temporarily

這都導致了金價的上漲。黃金的需求可能會暫時下降

from time to time, but it always rises back because Golden jewelry is part of many cultures,

不時，但它總是回升，因為黃金首飾是許多文化的一部分。

which means that there will always be a demand even when investors turn to other forms of

這意味著，即使投資者轉向其他形式的投資，需求也會一直存在。

investments.

投資：

But that hasn't always been the case. Once

但情況並非一直如此。曾經

upon a time, not that long ago, gold was the international currency of the world and wasn't

在不久前，黃金是世界上的國際貨幣，而不是... ...

only used in the manufacturing of jewelry. I know that its difficult to comprehend that

只用於製造珠寶。我知道這很難理解

just a hundred years ago, people actually used gold as a currency.

就在一百年前，人們還真的用黃金作為貨幣。

To understand how did we entirely moved out from gold and are completely depending on

要明白我們是如何完全從黃金中走出來的，而完全依靠的是黃金。

fiat currency. We have to take a look at the history.

法幣。我們要看一下歷史。

For over 5000 years, gold with its scarcity and beauty has captivated humankind like no

5000多年來，黃金以其稀缺性和美麗性深深吸引著人類，沒有人比它更能吸引人。

other metal.

其他金屬。

For the first time, gold was used as solid coins around 700 BC. Before that, gold had

公元前700年左右，黃金首次被用作固體錢幣。在此之前，金子已經

to be weighed and checked for purity when settling trades.

在結算交易時，要稱重並檢查純度。

But these coins were not without their problems. They have been used in different shapes throughout

但這些錢幣並非沒有問題。它們一直以不同的形狀被使用

centuries.   However, the biggest obstacle was that gold

幾個世紀。 然而，最大的障礙是，黃金

was simply too scarce, and digging it from the ground was much more difficult given the

根本就太稀少了，而且從地裡挖出來的難度也更大了，因為

technology they had in the past.

他們過去的技術。

To understand how scarce was gold back then. In the 16the century, Spain extracted so much

要知道當時的黃金是多麼的稀缺。在16世紀，西班牙開採瞭如此之多的

gold from the New world that it raised Europe's supply of gold by five times.

來自新世界的黃金，使歐洲的黃金供應量增加了五倍。

Of course, paper money was gaining some popularity back then, but gold was still the main instrument

當然，紙幣在當時已經有了一定的普及，但黃金仍然是主要的工具。

of the monetary system.

貨幣體系的。

But as the world economy started to rely on debt more and more, paper money slowly began

但隨著世界經濟開始越來越依賴債務，紙幣慢慢開始

to dominate world economies, but it had its fair share of problems. So the world came

主導世界經濟，但也有不少問題。所以，世界來到了

together to create the gold standard at the end of the 19th century (1871).

19世紀末(1871年)共同創立了金本位制。

It actually worked pretty well, inflation was at around 0 percent, and the world found

其實效果還不錯，通貨膨脹率在0%左右，全世界都發現了

a common language to trade until the world decided to destroy each and started world

共同的語言來進行貿易，直到世界決定摧毀每一個人，並開始世界

war 1. Even though the gold standard did not collapse, political alliances changed; governments

第一場戰爭。儘管金本位制沒有崩潰，但政治聯盟卻發生了變化；各國政府的

began to run out of gold, and national debts soared, which pushed the world to move to

黃金開始耗盡，國債飆升，這就促使世界走向了

something more flexible to base on, the world economy. Especially since gold supplies continued

更靈活的東西為基礎，世界經濟。尤其是在黃金供應持續

to fall behind the growth of the global economy, which ended in a few nations holding most

落後於全球經濟的增長，最終導致少數幾個國家掌握了大部分的市場份額。

of the gold reserves such as the United States and Britain.

的黃金儲備，如美國和英國。

The great depression (1929) made it only worst. War debts forced many countries to abandon

大蕭條(1929年)使其變得更糟。戰爭債務迫使許多國家放棄

the gold standard. Even England had to get out by 1931.

金本位制。甚至英國也不得不在1931年退出。

and guess what happened after WW2, the U.S. had 75% of the world's monetary gold, and

猜猜看二戰後發生了什麼，美國擁有世界上75%的貨幣黃金，而且... ...

the dollar was the only currency still backed directly by gold. But as other nations began

美元是唯一仍由黃金直接支持的貨幣。但隨著其他國家開始

to rebuild their economies, gold slowly began to leave the United States, especially with

為了重建經濟，黃金開始慢慢離開美國，特別是隨著美國經濟的發展，黃金的價格也在不斷上漲。

the war in Vietnam. The U.S. Went into a deficit and was afraid that it would run out of gold.

在越南的戰爭。美國陷入了赤字，害怕會耗盡黃金。

Countries like Belgium cashed in dollars for gold, and many others were intending to do

比利時等國家用美元兌換黃金，其他許多國家也打算這樣做。

the same, which pushed the united states to completely abandon the gold standard in 1971,

同樣的，促使美國在1971年完全放棄金本位制。

which was the end of the gold standard. The truth is, although gold has always played

這就是金本位制的終結。事實是，雖然黃金一直在扮演著

some role of currency for thousands of years. A true international gold standard existed

幾千年來一直扮演著某種貨幣的角色。真正的國際金本位是存在的

for around 50 years (1871 to 1914).  And today, the price of the gold is determined

50年左右（1871年至1914年）。 而今天，黃金的價格是由下列因素決定的

by the factors we have discussed earlier. However, the main question remains, Has Gold

受我們前面討論的因素影響。然而，主要的問題仍然是，黃金是否

Been a Good Investment?

一直是個好投資？

Well, the answer is both yes, and now, it highly depends on the time frame. Sometimes

嗯，答案既是，也是現在，這高度取決於時間段。有時候

it outperformed other investments, and other times investing in stocks or bonds would have

它的表現優於其他投資，而其他時候投資股票或債券會有

been a much better option. Gold might be a solid investment, but its definitely not the

是一個更好的選擇。黃金可能是一個穩健的投資，但它絕對不是。

best all the time.  If we take a look at the last 15 years, yes,

一直以來都是最好的。 如果我們看看過去的15年，是的。

gold (%278 increase) did actually better than the stock market ( 173%), but if we take a

黃金（%278增長）實際上比股市（173%）做得更好，但如果我們把一個

longer time frame such as 30 years, then the stock market has significantly outperformed

更長的時間框架，如30年，那麼股市的表現就會明顯超過

gold. The Dow Jones industrial average has gained ( 839%) while gold only (280%). Even

黃金。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲了( 839%)，而黃金只上漲了( 280%)。甚至

returns from corporate bonds ($450) have been higher than gold.

公司債券（450美元）的回報率一直高於黃金。

However, if we take even a longer time frame, such as since the abundance of the gold standard

然而，如果我們把時間框架拉得更長，比如自金本位制豐滿以來

( 1971), gold (4,500%) has outperformed the stock market ( 3,221%) by a reasonable range.

(1971)，黃金(4500%)的表現優於股市(3221%)的合理區間。

Are they going to be a good investment during this crisis, well, its impossible to say,

在這場危機中，他們是否會是一個很好的投資，嗯，其不可能說。

maybe it might be, maybe not. Only time

也許是，也許不是。只有時間

will tell.

會知道的。