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  • On the morning of March 28, Domingo Vega of Queens, New York, went to the hospital with

    3月28日上午,紐約皇后區的多明戈-維加到醫院就診時,因。

  • symptoms of pneumonia and tested positive for Covid-19.

    肺炎症狀,並對Covid-19檢測呈陽性。

  • This is DomingoBut not just him. This light represents 500 people who have been infected

    這是多明戈但不只是他這盞燈代表著500個被感染的人。

  • with the novel coronavirus in New York City. By May 16th, there were nearly 190,000 known

    與新型冠狀病毒在紐約市。到5月16日,已知有近19萬名

  • cases of Covid-19 there. Health officials report these numbers every

    那裡的Covid-19病例。衛生官員每年報告這些數字。

  • day, in cities and countries around the world, but they know that they're incomplete. Because

    日,在世界各地的城市和國家,但他們知道,他們是不完整的。因為

  • Covid testing has been like a narrow flashlight in a dark room. Anything we're not pointing

    Covid的測試就像黑暗房間裡的窄小手電筒。任何我們沒有指向的東西

  • the light at, we can't seeBut now researchers are collecting data that

    光在,我們看不到。 但現在研究人員正在收集數據

  • can capture the pandemic more fully, to try to get a better handle on just how much we've lost.

    可以更全面地捕捉到這場大流行,試圖更好地掌握我們的損失到底有多大。

  • Domingo Vega died on April 16th at the age

    多明戈-維加於4月16日去世,享年12歲。

  • of 45. Originally from Mexico, he came to the US when he was 16, and worked in restaurant

    的45歲。他來自墨西哥,16歲時就來到美國,在餐廳工作。

  • kitchens since then, eventually launching his own business with two locations in Brooklyn.

    自此,他開始了自己的廚房,最終在布魯克林開設了兩家分店。

  • He and his wife had three childrenDomingo was one of 20,720 New Yorkers whose

    他和妻子有三個孩子。 多明戈是20,720名紐約人中的一員,他的名字是 "多明戈"。

  • lives were cut short by the coronavirus as of May 16th, according to the city's count.

    據該市統計,截至5月16日,因冠狀病毒而縮短的生命。

  • Each blue light here represents 500 known deaths from Covid-19 and 500 families who

    這裡的每一盞藍燈都代表500個已知死於Covid-19的人和500個家庭

  • don't need data to tell them how dangerous this disease can be.

    不需要數據來告訴他們這種疾病有多危險。

  • But when it comes to the statistics, that question -- how deadly is Covid-19 -- has

    但說到統計數字,這個問題 -- -- Covid-19有多致命 -- -- 有

  • been difficult to answer. The relationship between the known deaths

    一直難以回答。已知的死亡人數之間的關係

  • and the known cases is called thecase fatality rate.”

    和已知病例稱為 "病例死亡率"。

  • At this point in New York City, 1 out of 9 people known to have Covid-19 have died.

    此時在紐約市,已知有Covid-19的9人中就有1人死亡。

  • That's 11 percent. But that rate varies drastically across cities

    也就是11%。但這個比例在不同的城市有很大的差異。

  • and countries. It was over 12% in Sweden in mid May but less than a percent in Iceland.

    和國家。5月中旬,瑞典超過12%,但冰島不到%。

  • It also changes over time. For the US, it dropped down to 1% near the end of March before

    它也會隨著時間的推移而變化。就美國而言,在臨近3月底的時候降到了1%,然後才

  • climbing back up as people who tested positive several weeks prior ended up dying.

    攀升回來,因為幾周前檢測呈陽性的人最後都死了。

  • When the case fatality rate varies this much, it's saying a lot more about these countries

    當案件的死亡率相差這麼多的時候,就說明這些國家的問題了

  • than about the disease itselfFor example, deaths may be higher in places where

    而不是疾病本身。 例如,在以下地方,死亡人數可能會更高。

  • the health system is overwhelmed  or where the population is older. We know

    衛生系統不堪重負,或者人口年齡較大。我們知道

  • that Covid-19 is more deadly in seniors, and especially those over 75.

    Covid-19對老年人,尤其是75歲以上的老年人更致命。

  • But also, on the other side of the fraction, the rate reflects how much testing is happening.

    但同時,在分數的另一面,速率也反映了測試的多少。

  • If a country is aware of more non-fatal cases, their case fatality rate is lower.

    如果一個國家知道的非死亡病例較多,其病例死亡率就會降低。

  • So this statistic isn't all that useful because we know most countries are missing

    所以這個統計並不是那麼有用,因為我們知道大多數國家都沒有。

  • cases. We're also missing deaths. According to an estimate by the New York Times,

    案件。我們還漏掉了死亡病例。根據紐約時報的估計。

  • there have been thousands of deaths that weren't included in the official count for New York

    有數千人的死亡不包括在紐約的官方統計中。

  • CityWe don't know for sure if it was coronavirus

    市。 我們不知道是否是冠狀病毒。

  • that killed them. But here's what we do know.

    殺死他們。但我們知道的是

  • If you look at 2017, 2018, and 2019, and chart the average number of deaths per week, the

    如果從2017年、2018年和2019年的情況來看,並繪製出平均每週的死亡人數,那麼。

  • line looks like this. It includes deaths from all from all causes.

    線是這樣的。它包括所有因各種原因造成的死亡。

  • For 2020 so far, that line of weekly deaths looks like this. The area above the typical

    2020年至今,這條周死線是這樣的。典型的上方區域

  • level is calledexcess deathsby researchers. And it gives us a fuller picture of the cost

    水準被研究人員稱為 "超額死亡"。它讓我們更全面地瞭解了成本的情況

  • of this pandemic. We're seeing excess deaths in many places

    這種流行病的。我們看到很多地方的死亡人數過多

  • that have suffered big outbreaksIn each case the excess deaths are higher

    的大爆發。 在每種情況下,超額死亡人數都較高。

  • than the official count of Covid deathsIt includes people who may have died from

    比官方統計的Covid死亡人數要多。 它包括可能死於

  • other causes but who were unable or unwilling to access medical care because of the pandemic.

    因其他原因而無法或不願接受醫療服務的人。

  • But it also includes some people with coronavirus who may have died at home or care facilities,

    但它也包括一些可能在家中或護理機構死亡的冠狀病毒患者。

  • or were never diagnosed. As this data comes in, it shows that in some

    或從未被診斷出來。隨著這些數據的出現,它表明在某些情況下。

  • places, the pandemic is even more deadly than we thought.

    在一些地方,疫情比我們想象的更加致命。

  • But the virus itself may be less deadly. Because we're also learning that a lot more people

    但病毒本身可能不那麼致命。因為我們也瞭解到更多的人...

  • have been infected than the official tallies show.

    比官方統計數字顯示的感染。

  • Health officials in New York have taken small blood samples of people at grocery stores

    紐約的衛生官員在雜貨店採集了人們的少量血液樣本。

  • to check for Covid antibodies. This is called a “seroprevalence surveyand it helps

    以檢查Covid抗體。這被稱為 "血清流行率調查",它有助於

  • capture the substantial number of people who didn't know they ever had coronavirus.

    捕獲大量不知道自己曾經感染過冠狀病毒的人。

  • So far these tests show that around 20% of people in New York City tested positive for

    到目前為止,這些測試顯示,紐約市約有20%的人在測試中呈陽性。

  • antibodies that indicate a previous Covid infection.

    抗體,表明以前有Covid感染。

  • If those shoppers are representative of the city's population, that would mean there

    如果這些購物者代表了該市的人口,那就意味著有了

  • were more than one and a half million Covid-19 cases in the city by early May.

    到5月初,全市有150多萬例科維德-19。

  • Without changing how many people have died, the antibody survey lowers the fatality rate

    在不改變死了多少人的情況下,抗體調查降低了死亡率。

  • by identifying more non-fatal cases. Remember the case fatality rate was 11% one

    通過識別更多的非致命性病例。記得案件死亡率是11%一

  • in 9, but the fatality rate for all those infected may fall somewhere between 1 in 60

    九分之一,但所有感染者的死亡率可能介於六十分之一之間。

  • and 1 in 90 for New York City. So while the death count is higher than we

    而紐約市每90人中就有1人死亡所以雖然死亡人數比我們高

  • thought, the death rate may be lower. But a low fatality rate is not all good news.

    認為,死亡率可能會更低。但死亡率低並不全是好消息。

  • It paints a picture of a tricky virus that moves undetected through many of us and causes

    它描繪了一幅棘手的病毒的圖景,它在我們許多人的體內移動而不被發現,並導致

  • immense suffering and death in others. We can look for comparisons to try to wrap

    巨大的痛苦和他人的死亡。我們可以尋找比較,以試圖將其包裹起來。

  • our heads around the death toll - more people lost in three months in the US than a year's

    我們的死亡人數--美國三個月的死亡人數比一年的死亡人數還要多。

  • worth of car crashes or drug overdoses. Still fewer than annual deaths from cancer or heart

    價值的車禍或藥物過量。還是比每年死於癌症或心臟

  • diseaseBut the comparisons are limited. Because unlike

    病。 但比較起來是有限的。因為不像

  • car accidents or cancer, Covid-19 is contagious. Human beings are the vector for this disease

    車禍或癌症,Covid-19具有傳染性。人類是這種疾病的傳播媒介。

  • and their actions are hard to predict. So even with better data about how many are

    而他們的行動是很難預測的。所以,即使有更好的數據,關於有多少人是

  • infected and dying, we won't know the full death toll of this pandemic

    感染和死亡,我們不會知道這種流行病的全部死亡人數。

  • until we find out how it ends.

    直到我們發現它的結局。

On the morning of March 28, Domingo Vega of Queens, New York, went to the hospital with

3月28日上午,紐約皇后區的多明戈-維加到醫院就診時,因。

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