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  • So what if there were a highly obvious problem

    譯者: Roland Li 審譯者: Bruce Sung

  • right in front of you?

    如果有個顯而易見的問題

  • One that everyone was talking about,

    就在你面前,

  • one that affected you directly.

    那個問題人人都在談論,

  • Would you do everything within your power to fix things

    直接影響你。

  • before they got worse?

    你會盡你所能處理這問題

  • Don't be so sure.

    以免問題惡化嗎?

  • We are all much more likely than any of us would like to admit

    別那麼確定喔。

  • to miss what's right in front of our eyes.

    就算我們不想去承認, 但其實把當務之急置之不理

  • And in fact,

    是我們所有人都很容易犯的錯。

  • we're sometimes most likely to turn away from things

    事實上,

  • precisely because of the threat that they represent to us,

    我們有時正會因為問題對我們自己,

  • in business, life and the world.

    在工作上、生命上, 和對世界帶來的威脅,

  • So I want to give you an example from my world, economic policy.

    而選擇對問題視而不見。

  • So when Alan Greenspan was head of the Federal Reserve,

    讓我來舉個例子吧。 以我熟悉的領域,也就是經濟政策。

  • his entire job was to watch out for problems in the US economy

    當艾倫·葛林斯潘擔任 聯邦準備系統的主席時,

  • and to make sure that they didn't spin out of control.

    他的職責就是防備美國經濟出現問題

  • So, after 2006,

    和確保這些問題在可控範圍内。

  • when real estate prices peaked,

    所以, 2006 年以後,

  • more and more and more respected leaders and institutions

    當房價到頂了,

  • started to sound the alarm bells

    越來越多備受尊崇的領導和公共團體

  • about risky lending and dangerous market bubbles.

    開始發出警告,

  • As you know, in 2008 it all came tumbling down.

    提醒大家高風險的借貸 和市場泡沫的危險。

  • Banks collapsed,

    大家都知道在 2008 年, 一切都走下坡了。

  • global stock markets lost nearly half their value,

    銀行倒了,

  • millions and millions of people lost their homes to foreclosure.

    全球股票市場失去了約一半的市值,

  • And at the bottom,

    數以百萬計的人因為付不出房貸 而賠上了住宅。

  • nearly one in 10 Americans was out of work.

    而最糟的情況是,

  • So after things calmed down a little bit,

    幾乎每 10 個美國人就有 1 個失業。

  • Greenspan and many others came out with a postmortem and said,

    當所有事稍微平復了以後,

  • "Nobody could have predicted that crisis."

    葛林斯潘和很多人就出來檢討,說:

  • They called it "a black swan."

    「沒有人可以預測得到這危機。」

  • Something that was unimaginable,

    他們稱它為「黑天鵝」,

  • unforeseeable and completely improbable.

    也就是一些無法想象,

  • A total surprise.

    無法預料,絕對不可能發生的事。

  • Except it wasn't always such a surprise.

    完全出乎意料之外。

  • For example, my Manhattan apartment nearly doubled in value

    但那次危機並非一直無聲無色的。

  • in less than four years.

    舉例說,我在曼哈頓的公寓, 幾乎漲價了一倍。

  • I saw the writing on the wall and I sold it.

    僅僅花了不到四年。

  • (Laughter)

    我看到事態不妙,所以就賣了。

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • So, a lot of other people also saw the warning,

    (掌聲)

  • spoke out publicly

    有很多人也看到那些危險信號。

  • and they were ignored.

    公開發言,

  • So we didn't know exactly what the crisis was going to look like,

    但都被人忽略了。

  • not the exact parameters,

    我們雖然不能預知危機的確實情況,

  • but we could all tell

    不知道它確實的程度大小,

  • that the thing coming at us was as dangerous, visible and predictable

    但我們全都知道

  • as a giant gray rhino charging right at us.

    我們要面臨的這情況 危險、明顯、可預測,

  • The black swan lends itself

    像一頭巨型灰犀牛迎面衝上來。

  • to the idea that we don't have power over our futures.

    黑天鵝很適合印證

  • And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have,

    我們無法左右未來這概念。

  • the more likely we are to downplay it

    可惜,當我們覺得 自己越無法控制一樣東西,

  • or ignore it entirely.

    我們越有可能看輕這件事,

  • And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem:

    甚至直接完全不理。

  • that most of the problems that we're facing

    這個危險的狀態, 還掩蓋著另外一個問題

  • are so probable and obvious,

    就是我們所面對的大部分問題

  • they're things that we can see, but we still don't do anything about.

    都很明顯,而且發生的機率都很高。

  • So I created the gray rhino metaphor

    它們是大家有目共睹卻無動於衷的。

  • to meet what I felt was an urgent need.

    所以我創造了「灰犀牛」這個隱喻,

  • To help us to take a fresh look,

    來應對這個燃眉之急。

  • with the same passion that people had for the black swan,

    讓我們用對待黑天鵝般的熱忱,

  • but this time, for the things that were highly obvious,

    重新審視問題,

  • highly probable, but still neglected.

    不過這次審視的是顯而易見、

  • Those are the gray rhinos.

    發生的機會很大, 卻還是被忽視的問題。

  • Once you start looking for gray rhinos,

    我們稱它們為「灰犀牛」。

  • you see them in the headlines every day.

    你只要開始找尋這些灰犀牛,

  • And so what I see in the headlines is another big gray rhino,

    就會發現每天頭條都有它們的足跡。

  • a new highly probable financial crisis.

    而我又在頭條裡看到另一頭灰犀牛,

  • And I wonder if we've learned anything in the last 10 years.

    一場如箭在弦的新金融危機。

  • So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street,

    我在想過去 10 年裡面, 我們有以古為鏡嗎?

  • you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laid ahead.

    如果你去聽聽華府或華爾街講的話,

  • But in China, where I spend a lot of time,

    你認為前景一帆風順, 也幾乎情有可原。

  • the conversation is totally different.

    但我花了很長時間研究中國,

  • The entire economic team,

    在中國那邊的說法完全不一樣。

  • all the way up to president Xi Jinping himself,

    整個經濟團隊

  • talk very specifically and clearly

    上至包括習近平主席的上級人員,

  • about financial risks as gray rhinos,

    都明明確確、清清楚楚地

  • and how they can tame them.

    討論灰犀牛出現的潛在風險。

  • Now, to be sure, China and the US

    還表明要怎樣馴服這些犀牛。

  • have very, very different systems of government,

    當然,中美兩國

  • which affects what they're able to do or not.

    有著天淵之別的政府體制,

  • And many of the root causes for their economic problems

    這也影響了他們的能力範圍。

  • are totally different.

    而兩國經濟問題的許多根本成因,

  • But it's no secret that both countries have problems

    也截然不同。

  • with debt, with inequality and with economic productivity.

    但眾所皆知,兩國各自面對問題,

  • So how come the conversations are so different?

    包括債務、財富不勻 和經濟生產力的問題。

  • You could actually ask this question,

    那為何兩國的說法那麼不同了?

  • not just about countries,

    其實這個問題,

  • but about just about everyone.

    不只涉及國家間的不同,

  • The auto companies that put safety first

    放諸四海皆然。

  • and the ones that don't bother to recall their shoddy cars

    安全至上的汽車公司,

  • until after people die.

    和那些即使生產劣質車輛 也無動於衷,

  • The grandparents who, in preparing for the inevitable --

    要到賠上人命才回收的公司。

  • the ones who have the eulogy written,

    為無法避免的人生終章, 提早綢繆的祖父母,

  • the menu for the funeral lunch.

    就是那些早就寫好悼詞的人,

  • (Laughter)

    定好解穢酒的菜單的人。

  • My grandparents did.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    我的祖父母真的定了。

  • And everything but the final date chiseled into the gravestone.

    (笑聲)

  • But then you have the grandparents on the other side,

    墓碑上除了歿日都刻先刻好了。

  • who don't put their final affairs in order,

    但也有另一派的祖父母。

  • who don't get rid of all the junk

    他們不會作善終準備。

  • they've been hoarding for decades and decades

    他們不會丟掉沒用的東西。

  • and leave their kids to deal with it.

    他們囤積了幾十年了,

  • So what makes the difference between one side and the other?

    最終讓他們的子女善後。

  • Why do some people see things and deal with them,

    那這兩派人的差別在哪呢?

  • and the other ones just look away?

    為甚麼有些人看到情況馬上處理,

  • So the first one has to do with culture, society,

    另一些人卻視而不見呢?

  • the people around you.

    第一個因素就是文化、社會

  • If you think that someone around you

    和你身邊的人。

  • is going to help pick you up when you fall,

    如果你覺得你身邊的人

  • you're much more likely to see a danger as being smaller.

    在你跌倒的時候會扶你一把,

  • And that allows us to take good chances, not just the bad ones.

    你就會偏向覺得危險沒那麼大。

  • For example, like risking criticism

    這想法讓我們更加考慮到 事物的好前景,而不只是風險。

  • when you talk about the danger that nobody wants you to talk about.

    例如甘願面對被批評的風險,

  • Or taking the opportunities that are kind of scary,

    去談論沒有人想聽的潛在危險,

  • so in their own way are gray rhinos.

    或把握一些會讓人卻步的機會。

  • So the US has a very individualist culture -- go it alone.

    因為可怕,所以 這些機會也算是灰犀牛。

  • And paradoxically,

    美國的文化崇尚個人主義, 也就孤軍奮戰。

  • this makes many Americans much less open to change

    吊詭的是,

  • and taking good risks.

    這文化令很多美國人比較抗拒改變,

  • In China, by contrast,

    也怕冒好的風險。

  • people believe that the government is going to keep problems from happening,

    中國卻相反。

  • which might not always be what happens, but people believe it.

    人民相信政府會防止問題發生。

  • They believe they can rely on their families,

    事實不一定是這樣, 但反正人們是這樣相信啦。

  • so that makes them more likely to take certain risks.

    他們相信家人是可以靠賴的,

  • Like buying Beijing real estate,

    所以有些風險他們比較敢於承擔。

  • or like being more open about the fact that they need to change direction,

    例如在北京買房子,

  • and in fact, the pace of change in China is absolutely amazing.

    或當需要改變的時候,更敢於表達。

  • Second of all,

    事實上,中國改變的步伐實在神速。

  • how much do you know about a situation,

    第二,

  • how much are you willing to learn?

    你對情況認知多少?

  • And are you willing to see things even when it's not what you want?

    而你願意學會多少?

  • So many of us are so unlikely

    當事情並不如人願, 你又是否願意看清真相?

  • to pay attention to the things that we just want to black out,

    我們大多人

  • we don't like them.

    不願意注意一些想置之不理的事,

  • We pay attention to what we want to see, what we like, what we agree with.

    我們不喜歡它們。

  • But we have the opportunity and the ability

    我們只注意我們想看的東西、 喜歡的事、同意的議題。

  • to correct those blind spots.

    但我們有機會,也有能力

  • I spend a lot of time talking with people of all walks of life

    去正視這些盲點。

  • about the gray rhinos in their life and their attitudes.

    我花了很多時間 跟各行各業的人傾談,

  • And you might think

    討論他們人生中的灰犀牛 和處事態度。

  • that the people who are more afraid of risk,

    你可能會想,

  • who are more sensitive to them,

    更害怕風險的人,

  • would be the ones who would be less open to change.

    對風險格外敏感的人,

  • But the opposite is actually true.

    就是比較抗拒改變的人。

  • I've found that the people

    但事實卻相反。

  • who are wiling to recognize the problems around them

    我發現

  • and make plans

    願意看清身邊問題和著手計劃的人,

  • are the ones who are able to tolerate more risk, good risk,

    能夠承擔更多好風險,

  • and deal with the bad risk.

    也能夠處理壞風險。

  • And it's because as we seek information,

    這是因為當我們尋找資訊,

  • we increase our power to do something about the things that we're afraid of.

    我們就讓自己更有力量, 去做一些我們畏懼的事。

  • And that brings me to my third point.

    這也帶出我的第三點:

  • How much control do you feel that you have

    你覺得你對於人生裡的灰犀牛

  • over the gray rhinos in your life?

    有多少掌控了?

  • One of the reasons we don't act

    我們坐視不理的其中一個原因,

  • is that we often feel too helpless.

    是我們通常覺得太無助了。

  • Think of climate change, it can feel so big,

    想想氣候變化, 會讓人覺得如此渺小。

  • that not a single one of us could make a difference.

    沒有人可以帶來甚麼改變。

  • So some people go about life denying it.

    有人選擇否認氣候改變,如常生活。

  • Other people blame everyone except themselves.

    有人指責天下人皆錯,唯我除外。

  • Like my friend who says he's not ever going to give up his SUV

    就像我的朋友說, 要待中國停止建造煤廠,

  • until they stop building coal plants in China.

    他才會棄掉他的運動休旅車。

  • But we have an opportunity to change.

    但我們有機會改變。

  • No two of us are the same.

    我們各有不同。

  • Every single one of us has the opportunity to change our attitudes,

    每個人都可以改變自己態度,

  • our own and those of people around us.

    也可以改變身邊的人的態度。

  • So today, I want to invite all of you

    所以今天我想邀請你們所有人,

  • to join me in helping to spark an open and honest conversation

    和我一起跟身邊的人

  • with the people around you,

    打開天窗說亮話,

  • about the gray rhinos in our world,

    如實暢談自己世界裡的灰犀牛,

  • and be brutally honest about how well we're dealing with them.

    開誠布公的說出 自己處理灰犀牛的效果。

  • I hear so many times in the States,

    我在美國聽過很多這樣的話:

  • "Well, of course we should deal with obvious problems,

    「我們當然應該 處理顯而易見的問題,

  • but if you don't see what's in front of you,

    如果你看不清眼前的問題,

  • you're either dumb or ignorant."

    你不是笨蛋,就是無知。」

  • That's what they say, and I could not disagree more.

    他們這句話,我真的非常不同意。

  • If you don't see what's in front of you,

    如果你看不清眼前的問題,

  • you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,

    你不是笨蛋,也不是無知。

  • you're human.

    你只是個平凡人而已。

  • And once we all recognize that shared vulnerability,

    我們只要看清這世人都有的軟弱,

  • that gives us the power to open our eyes,

    我們就能夠睜開雙眼,

  • to see what's in front of us

    看到眼前的問題,

  • and to act before we get trampled.

    在我們被問題踐踏前行動。

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

So what if there were a highly obvious problem

譯者: Roland Li 審譯者: Bruce Sung

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A2 初級 中文 TED 犀牛 問題 風險 改變 危險

為什麼我們忽視了明顯的問題--以及如何應對這些問題|米歇爾-瓦克 (Why we ignore obvious problems — and how to act on them | Michele Wucker)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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