巴西：高空飛行或滑翔 (Brazil: High Flying or Gliding)

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>> BY EXPLOITING ITS NATURAL
RESOURCES, BRAZIL'S ECONOMY HAS
BEEN ON A ROLL.
[ INDISTINCT CHANTING ]
BUT THE GOOD TIMES ARE OVER...
AT LEAST FOR NOW.
THE OUTLOOK NEXT ON
"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES."
>> THIS IS
"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES," WITH
PULITZER PRIZE-WINNING
COMMENTATOR JOHN BERSIA.
>> WELCOME TO
"GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES."
BRAZILIANS ARE A MAJOR FACTOR IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA'S ECONOMY.
BUT THE ECONOMIC ENGINE AT HOME
THAT HAS FUNDED THEIR UPPER- AND
MIDDLE-CLASS TRAVELING WAYS MAY
BE STARTING TO SPUTTER.
BY EXPLOITING NATURAL
RESOURCES, EXPANDING
AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, AND
ATTEMPTING ENERGY
SELF-SUFFICIENCY, BRAZIL HAS
DEVELOPED ONE OF THE LARGEST
ECONOMIES IN THE WORLD AND THE
LARGEST IN SOUTH AMERICA.
BUT THE RISING TIDE HAS NOT
RAISED ALL BOATS.
AND LAST SUMMER, ANGER OVER
LAGGING INFRASTRUCTURE,
CORRUPTION, AND THE BILLIONS
BEING SPENT ON NEW SOCCER AND
OLYMPIC FACILITIES BROUGHT
PROTESTORS -- MANY OF THEM FROM
THE NEW MIDDLE CLASS -- INTO THE
STREETS.
OUR GUEST TODAY,
MYLES FRECHETTE, IS A FORMER
U.S. AMBASSADOR TO COLOMBIA, WHO
HAS SERVED IN VARIOUS DIPLOMATIC
POSTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL DECADES AND IS UNIQUELY
SUITED TO ANALYZE THESE
DEVELOPMENTS AND WHAT THEY MEAN
FOR THE UNITED STATES.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW,
AMBASSADOR FRECHETTE.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH, JOHN.
PLEASURE TO BE HERE.
>> SO, WHAT IS THE SITUATION
WITH BRAZIL?
IS THE WHOLE RISING POWER
ENVIRONMENT FOR BRAZIL OVER?
ARE WE SEEING A CRASH COMING?
OR IS THIS JUST ONE OF THOSE
THINGS THAT RISING POWERS GO
THROUGH AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE WORLD?
>> WELL, I DON'T THINK IT'S THE
LATTER.
I DO THINK THAT MANY OF THE
THINGS THAT WE'RE SEEING IN
BRAZIL TODAY AND ARE BEING
CRITICIZED ABOUT THE ECONOMY IN
BRAZIL, HAVE EXISTED FOR A VERY
LONG TIME.
BUT BRAZIL HAS HAD, FOR EXAMPLE,
IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, A
TREMENDOUS SURGE IN THE SALE OF
COMMODITIES.
THEY'VE BEEN MAKING MONEY HAND
OVER FIST.
AND IT DIDN'T MATTER THAT MUCH.
HOWEVER, NOW THERE IS A ROUGH
PATCH.
NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.
BRAZIL CANNOT LIVE OFF SIMPLY
MORE EMPLOYMENT.
IT HAS TO BECOME MORE
PRODUCTIVE.
HOW DO YOU BECOME MORE
PRODUCTIVE?
BETTER EDUCATION SO THAT, YOU
KNOW, MORE BRAZILIANS CAN OCCUPY
JOBS IN THE NEW SECTORS BEING
OPENED UP.
BETTER INFRASTRUCTURE SO THAT
EVERYTHING IN BRAZIL WORKS
BETTER, FROM THE TRAINS TO THE
PLANES TO THE TRUCKS.
LOWER COSTS AND TAXES SO THAT
BRAZILIANS DON'T PAY EXORBITANT
PRICES FOR THINGS THAT THEY
WOULD LIKE IS ONE OF THE
REASONS, AS YOU MENTIONED IN
YOUR LEAD-IN, THAT BRAZILIANS
COME TO THE UNITED STATES SO
THEY CAN BUY AN AWFUL LOT OF
STUFF AT LOWER PRICE THAN THEY
CAN GET IN BRAZIL.
AND SO, YOU KNOW, ALL OF THESE
THINGS PUT TOGETHER ARE GONNA
MAKE FOR A NEW, MORE POWERFUL
BRAZIL.
BUT IT ALSO MEANS A BREAK IN THE
ECONOMIC MODEL.
UP TO NOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS --
PARTICULARLY THIS GOVERNMENT,
THE WORKER'S PARTY -- HAS RELIED
VERY MUCH ON THE GOVERNMENT AND
ONLY GRUDGINGLY ALLOWS THE
PRIVATE SECTOR IN.
AND THAT'S GONNA HAVE TO CHANGE.
ANOTHER THING THAT'S LACKING IN
BRAZIL'S THE KIND OF DIALOGUE
THAT EXISTS IN THE UNITED STATES
BETWEEN THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND
THE GOVERNMENT.
AND THERE IS, FRANKLY, MORE
LISTENING ON BOTH SIDES HERE
THAN THERE IS IN BRAZIL.
WHEN I SERVED IN BRAZIL IN
SAO PAULO, I REMEMBER MEETING
WITH MANY, MANY BUSINESSMEN
BECAUSE SAO PAULO IS THE
INDUSTRIAL ENGINE, IF YOU WILL,
OF BRAZIL.
AND THEY SAID, "OH, THEIR
POLICIES ARE WRONG, AND LOOK, WE
OUGHT TO BE DOING THIS AND THAT
AND THE OTHER THING."
AND I SAID, "WELL, WHY DON'T YOU
GO TO BRASíLIA AND TELL THEM
THAT?"
AND THEY SAID, "WELL, IT JUST
DOESN'T WORK THAT WAY."
THEY NEVER WENT INTO AN AWFUL
LOT OF DETAIL.
BUT THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE
REALITY.
SO THEY'VE GOT TO DO ALL OF
THESE THINGS TOGETHER.
IT'S GONNA COST A LOT OF MONEY.
IT'S GONNA TAKE TIME.
THIS IS NOT SOMETHING, YOU KNOW,
LIKE A LIGHT BULB -- YOU TURN IT
ON.
THE VERY THING THAT YOU WERE
TALKING ABOUT EARLIER -- THE
LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE, THE
ANGER AMONG THE PEOPLE FOR ALL
THE SOCCER STADIUMS THERE BEING
BUILT, COSTING BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS WHEN THEY DON'T HAVE
PROPER ROADS TO DRIVE THEIR CARS
ON.
>> TALK TO US ABOUT THOSE
BRAZILIAN TOURISTS.
IF THE ECONOMY SPUTTERS, WILL WE
SEE A DECREASE IN THOSE
TOURISTS?
OR DO YOU THINK SOME OF THEM
WILL CONTINUE TO COME BECAUSE
THEY HAVE THE INCENTIVE TO BUY
CONSUMER GOODS AT A MUCH LOWER
COST THAN THEY CAN AT HOME?
>> I THINK A LOT OF THEM WILL
CONTINUE BECAUSE EVEN IF THE
ECONOMY SPUTTERS, THERE'S AN
AWFUL LOT OF PEOPLE EARNING AN
AWFUL LOT OF MONEY IN CERTAIN
AREAS IN BRAZIL.
AND THEY'RE GONNA CONTINUE
WANTING TO COME HERE.
BUT SOME OF THE LOW-END ONES WHO
HAVE BEEN VISITING FLORIDA IN
MORE RECENT YEARS MAY NOT, YOU
KNOW -- MAY TRICKLE DOWN.
>> YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT SOME OF
THESE SPORTS FACILITIES AND
OTHER FACILITIES THAT ARE BEING
BUILT FOR WORLD CUP AND FOR THE
OLYMPICS AND SO FORTH.
PART OF THE CHALLENGE OF GETTING
THOSE GREAT GAMES TO COME TO
BRAZIL IS THAT YOU HAVE TO
PROVIDE WHAT IS NECESSARY TO
SUPPORT THEM, SO I GUESS IF YOU
LOOK AT THIS FROM THE SIDE OF
THOSE WHO SUPPORT BRINGING THOSE
MAJOR EVENTS TO THE COUNTRY,
THEN THE SPENDING IS JUSTIFIED,
BUT IF THERE ARE MILLIONS OF
PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE ANYTHING,
THEN THEY ALSO HAVE A COMPLAINT.
HOW DO YOU RESOLVE THAT?
>> I DON'T KNOW.
ONE OF THE THINGS, FOR EXAMPLE,
THAT BRAZIL HAS NOT YET
ADDRESSED PUBLICLY IS THE WHOLE
QUESTION OF SECURITY FOR THE
WORLD CUP AND FOR THE OLYMPICS.
THIS IS A REAL PROBLEM.
YOU'RE GONNA HAVE PEOPLE COMING
FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.
GOD KNOWS WHAT ISSUES THEY'RE
COMPLAINING ABOUT.
BUT BRAZIL HAS GOT TO DEAL WITH
THIS, AND THE FOOTBALL
ASSOCIATION IS TALKING
CONSTANTLY ABOUT THIS ISSUE.
>> WHAT SORTS OF SECURITY
PROBLEMS DO YOU ENVISION?
>> WELL, HOW ABOUT THE ENTRANCE
OF TERRORISTS INTO BRAZIL TO
SUPPOSEDLY SEE THE GAMES, BUT
ARE REALLY THERE TO COMMIT
TERRORIST ACTS?
BRAZIL DOESN'T SPEND ANYWHERE
NEAR THE AMOUNT OF MONEY THAT
THE UNITED STATES OR WEST
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES SPEND ON
SECURITY.
AND, TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, THEY
TOOK A CERTAIN PRIDE IN THAT.
AND THERE'S ALSO A SORT OF A
SLIGHT FATALISTIC SENSE ABOUT
THIS, YOU KNOW?
BUT THEY'RE GONNA HAVE TO TAKE
CARE OF IT BECAUSE THE WHOLE
BUSINESS OF SECURITY'S BECOMING
MORE AND MORE PRESSING ON THE
WORLD, PARTICULARLY THROUGH
TELEVISION.
LOOK AT THIS RECENT EVENT IN
KENYA.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE BRAZILIANS
HAVE TO DEAL WITH AND NOT SORT
OF SAY, YOU KNOW, "WE DON'T
HAVE THAT PROBLEM," BECAUSE,
WELL, WHO KNOWS?
MAYBE EVERYBODY LIKES BRAZIL.
BUT I DON'T THINK TERRORISTS
OPERATE THAT WAY.
>> THERE ARE MANY BRAZILIANS WHO
REMEMBER AN EARLIER PERIOD OF
PROSPERITY IN THE 1970s THAT
SEEMED TO BE, YOU KNOW, THE BEST
THING THAT HAD HAPPENED IN YEARS
AND YEARS.
BUT IT ENDED IN A CRASH.
AND WHY SHOULD WE BELIEVE THAT
TODAY'S PROBLEMS WILL NOT END IN
A CRASH?
>> WELL, BECAUSE I HOPE THAT THE
PRESSURE ON MORE EDUCATED,
YOUNGER BRAZILIANS TO DO
SOMETHING BETTER WITH THEIR
COUNTRY -- PROVIDE A BETTER
FUTURE FOR MORE BRAZILIANS --
WILL CHANGE THAT ATTITUDE.
REMEMBER, BRAZIL IS A COUNTRY OF
BOOM AND BUST.
IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN.
I MEAN, IT BEGAN EXPORTING A
KIND OF WOOD CALLED BRAZILWOOD
TO EUROPE, AND THEN THEY
GOT AHOLD OF SOME PEPPER SEEDS
FROM INDONESIA THAT THE
PORTUGUESE SAILORS -- AT THAT
TIME, BRAZIL WAS PART OF
PORTUGAL -- THE PORTUGUESE
SAILORS STOLE SOME OF THOSE
PEPPER SEEDS, AND THEY CAME TO
BRAZIL, AND THEY PLANTED THEM.
AND SO YOU WENT THROUGH A PEPPER
BOOM AND THEN THE RUBBER BOOM,
WHICH MADE MANAUS INTO THE PARIS
OF SOUTH AMERICA -- A GREAT BIG
OPERA HOUSE, FANTASTIC HOMES,
AND ALL THE REST OF IT.
AND THERE HAVE BEEN MANY BOOMS
AND BUSTS IN BRAZIL.
>> IS IT TRUE THAT HALF OF
BRAZILIANS HAVE MADE IT INTO THE
MIDDLE CLASS OR HIGHER?
>> YES.
AND THEY HAVE JOBS THAT ALLOW
THEM TO DO MORE THAN JUST
THREE SQUARE MEALS A DAY.
IT ALLOWS THEM TO BUY THINGS ON
CREDIT, PERHAPS EVEN A CAR.
AND SO THERE'S BEEN A BIG
CHANGE.
I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY BRAZILIANS
THAT ACT-- BUT IT'S MILLIONS OF
THEM NOW HAVE ACCESS TO THIS.
AND THEY WANT BETTER SERVICES
FROM THEIR GOVERNMENT.
THEY DON'T WANT THESE TERRIBLE
TAXES.
THEY DON'T WANT THE LACK OF
EDUCATION.
THESE PEOPLE ARE GONNA PUT
PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNMENT.
THEY DON'T WANT TO GO BACK.
>> THE DIFFICULTIES OF LATE HAVE
BEEN RATHER JARRING FOR PEOPLE
WHO HAD GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO
HEARING POSITIVE STORIES ABOUT
BRAZIL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DECADES.
WAS ALL OF THAT REAL IN THAT
IMPROVEMENTS WERE BEING MADE AND
PEOPLE WERE BEING LIFTED UP AND
THE COUNTRY ELIMINATED ITS DEBT,
ET CETERA, ET CETERA, ET CETERA?
>> YEAH, NO, I THINK SOME OF
THAT STUFF WAS TRUE.
FOR EXAMPLE, PRESIDENT LULA OF
BRAZIL BEGAN TO GIVE POOR PEOPLE
A STIPEND SO THAT THEY WOULD
HAVE THEIR CHILDREN INOCULATED
AND A STIPEND TO BUY FOOD SO THE
CHILDREN WOULD BE INOCULATED AND
SENT TO SCHOOL.
THIS HAS, AMONG OTHER THINGS,
HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON -- A
VERY GOOD EFFECT ON BRAZIL.
BUT, YOU KNOW, THERE IS AN
AMOUNT OF HYPE, AND THE PRESS,
CERTAINLY IN WESTERN EUROPE AND
IN THIS COUNTRY, HAS PLAYED VERY
MUCH -- LISTENED TO THE STORIES
ABOUT THE BRICs, YOU KNOW, AND
HOW GREAT THE BRICs WERE.
WELL, THE BLOOM IS OFF THE ROSE
ON THE BRICs -- THEY'RE OKAY,
BUT THEY'RE NOT THE SHINY
SUCCESS STORY THAT THEY WERE.
AND I THINK THAT'S -- FRANKLY, I
THINK THAT'S VERY GOOD BECAUSE
IF THE BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT
KEEPS READING AND HEARING THAT
BRAZIL IS JUST GREAT, THERE'S
VERY LITTLE INCENTIVE TO PULL UP
THEIR SOCKS AND DO THINGS
BETTER.
>> PAINT A PICTURE FOR US OF THE
OTHER HALF -- THE HALF THAT HAS
NOT MADE IT INTO THE
LOWER-MIDDLE CLASS OR HIGHER.
WHAT KIND OF LIFE DO THEY HAVE?
>> WELL, IT'S PRETTY BASIC, BUT
THE THING THAT ALWAYS STRUCK ME
ABOUT BRAZIL IS THAT BRAZILIANS
ARE SO VERY OPTIMISTIC AND, YOU
KNOW, DESPITE THE DIFFICULTIES,
DESPITE THE FACT THAT MANY OF
THEM DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH FOR
THREE SQUARE MEALS A DAY, THAT
THEY HAD TO RIDE IN ROTTEN
TRAINS OR BUSES THAT WERE
FALLING APART, THAT THEY HAD TO
SOMETIMES TRAVEL HOURS BEFORE
THEY GOT TO THE JOB -- THEY DID
THE JOB FOR EIGHT HOURS, THEN
TRAVELED HOURS TO GO BACK.
THESE ARE ALMOST UNENDURABLE.
BUT PEOPLE IN BRAZIL HAVE PUT UP
WITH THAT STUFF.
SOME PEOPLE WHO FOLLOW BRAZIL
VERY CLOSELY SAY, WELL, THAT'S
WHAT CARNIVAL IS ALL ABOUT.
CARNIVAL IS NOT PUT ON BY THE
RICH FOLKS.
IT'S PUT ON BY POOR PEOPLE WHO
SPEND A LOT OF MONEY ON FANCY
COSTUMES AND PUTTING TOGETHER A
DANCE FOR THIS YEAR'S CARNIVAL.
IT'S ALL GONE IN THE TWO OR
THREE DAYS OF CARNIVAL.
THAT'S IT.
AND THEN THEY SORT OF RETURN TO
THE LIFE THEY HAD BEFORE AND
START WORKING ON THE NEXT YEAR'S
CARNIVAL.
I THINK THAT'S A LITTLE
OVERSTRETCH, BUT MANY BRAZILIANS
WILL TELL YOU THAT THAT'S AN
ESCAPE VALVE FOR THE FRUSTRATION
THAT THE POOR PEOPLE FEEL.
>> ARE THERE ARE OTHER WAYS TO
ESCAPE?
TYPICALLY, IN THE UNITED STATES,
WE THINK OF EDUCATION AS
PROVIDING STEPS OUT OF LOWER
SOCIOECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES.
IS EDUCATION AN OPTION FOR THE
HAVE-NOTS IN BRAZIL?
>> IT'S AN OPTION, BUT IT'S NOT
A VERY GOOD ONE BECAUSE PRIMARY
EDUCATION AND SECONDARY
EDUCATION IN BRAZIL IS JUDGED BY
ANY STANDARDS AS BEING PRETTY
POOR.
AND WHEN YOU COMPARE YOUNG
BRAZILIAN MEN AND WOMEN --
SKILLS IN MATHEMATICS, FOR
EXAMPLE, OR IN SCIENCE --
COMPARE THEM, NOT TO THE STATES
OR EUROPE, BUT OTHER COUNTRIES
IN LATIN AMERICA, THEY CAME OFF
VERY, VERY POORLY.
AND THESE ARE FAIRLY RECENT --
THIS IS FAIRLY RECENT RESEARCH.
>> NOW, PRESIDENT ROUSSEFF HAD,
UNTIL RECENTLY, BEEN RIDING
PRETTY HIGH IN THE POLLS --
POPULAR AT A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
NUMBER.
BUT NOW ALL OF THAT HAS CHANGED.
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT HER
POLITICAL FUTURE?
>> HER POLLS ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN
RISING A LITTLE BIT SINCE THE
DEMONSTRATIONS.
BUT THE QUESTION IS IS THERE
SOMEBODY ELSE WHO COULD BE A
STRONG OPPONENT FROM ANOTHER
PARTY?
AND THERE WAS THIS MARINA WOMAN
WHO WANTED TO CREATE A GREEN
PARTY.
SHE'S A WOMAN WHO CAME FROM
NOTHING.
SHE DIDN'T KNOW HOW READ UNTIL
SHE WAS A TEENAGER.
HER PARENTS WERE RUBBER TAPPERS
IN THE JUNGLE.
AND SHE HAS JUST FORMED AN
ALLIANCE, IN THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER, WITH SOMEBODY WHO IS
QUITE POPULAR.
AND THEY -- YOU KNOW, THEY MIGHT
JUST GET ENOUGH VOTES TO BEAT
DILMA.
BUT FOR THE MOMENT, BARRING THE
RISE OF MARINA AND HER NEW
CO-EQUAL, I THINK DILMA ROUSSEFF
IS GONNA BE REELECTED.
AND LULA -- LULA IS A MAN WHO
WOULD LOVE TO BE PRESIDENT, BUT
HE HAS SAID MANY, MANY TIMES
THAT HE'S NOT GONNA BE AGAIN.
BUT HE'D LOVE TO BE.
HE LOVED THOSE LEVERS OF POWER
FOR THE EIGHT YEARS THAT HE WAS
IN OFFICE.
AND YOU CAN'T BLAME HIM.
>> NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT.
>> HE WAS A FACTORY WORKER, A
LABOR-UNION LEADER, AND ALL OF A
SUDDEN, YOU KNOW, HE WASN'T JUST
A GUY WORKING IN A FAC-- THE
PRESIDENT OF ALL BRAZIL.
AND HE HAD A VERY DISTINCT
VOICE, WHICH WAS NOT
PARTICULARLY PRO-AMERICA,
NOT AT ALL.
AND IT WAS VERY TO THE LEFT OF
CENTER AND USING PRESIDENT
CHáVEZ, WHO WAS FAR TO THE LEFT
OF BRAZIL, TO BASICALLY BEDEVIL
THE UNITED STATES, LIKE THE
CANCELLATION OF THE FREE-TRADE
AREA OF THE AMERICAS AT THE
FOURTH SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS IN
ARGENTINA, MAR DEL PLATA --
2005 -- HIS ATTEMPTS TO WORK
WITH TURKEY TO TRY AND FIND A
SOLUTION TO THE IRAN PROBLEM,
WHICH CAUSED GREAT UPSET IN
WASHINGTON, BUT NOT JUST
WASHINGTON -- MANY OTHER PLACES.
PEOPLE FELT THAT HE JUST DIDN'T
HAVE THE EXPERIENCE AND THAT
TURKEY AND BRAZIL WORKING
TOGETHER JUST WEREN'T HIGH
ENOUGH OCTANES ENOUGH TO REALLY
RESOLVE THIS SORT OF PROBLEM.
YOU KNOW, HE WAS NEVER ONE TO
HIDE BEHIND HIS -- OR HIDE HIS
ANTI-AMERICANISM.
HE WAS QUOTED IN A NEWSPAPER
THAT APPEARED IN BOGOTá SAYING
THAT THE ANTI-BRAZILIAN
SENTIMENT IN LATIN AMERICA IS
DUE TO THE AMERICANS.
>> BUT THERE ARE PROBABLY OTHERS
WHO HOLD THAT VIEW AS WELL
BECAUSE BRAZIL HAS RISEN
QUICKLY.
IT'S A POWERFUL COUNTRY.
IT'S, IN MANY WAYS, THE DOMINANT
INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN.
ITS ECONOMY IS HUGE, NOT JUST BY
SOUTH AMERICAN STANDARDS, BUT BY
GLOBAL STANDARDS.
AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE COMFORTABLY
TAKEN ITS PLACE AMONG THE
LARGEST, MOST POWERFUL COUNTRIES
IN THE WORLD, TO SOME EXTENT.
>> YEAH. TO SOME EXTENT.
LET ME TELL YOU A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT THIS FROM THE POINT OF
VIEW OF BRAZIL AND WASHINGTON.
A FEW YEARS AGO, AS U.S.
INFLUENCE IN THE REGION WOUND
DOWN BECAUSE WE HAD OTHER
INTERESTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND
THE FAR EAST, ET CETERA, ET
CETERA, AND IT SEEMED TO US IN
WASHINGTON THAT THE COUNTRIES --
THERE WERE NO MORE DEMOCRACIES
EXCEPT -- NO MORE DICTATORSHIPS,
EXCEPT IN CUBA, THAT, YOU KNOW,
REALLY, THEY WERE WELL MOVING
ALONG, AND THEN PEOPLE SAID,
"YES, BUT HOW ABOUT THE EXAMPLE
OF THE UNITED STATES PUSHING FOR
DEMOCRACY AND SORT OF LEADING
THE WAY SO THAT SOME OF THESE
COUNTRIES DON'T DO SILLY THINGS
OR THINGS THAT ARE NOT GOOD FOR
THEIR OWN FUTURE?"
A LOT OF PEOPLE IN WASHINGTON
AND EVEN IN BRAZIL THOUGHT THAT
BRAZIL WAS GOING TO OCCUPY THAT
LEADERSHIP, AND IT DIDN'T.
IT HASN'T DONE SO.
NOT AT ALL.
AND THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS
FOR THAT.
FOR ONE THING IS, IF YOU'RE IN A
PART OF THE WORLD WHICH, TO SOME
EXTENT, DOESN'T LIKE THE FACT
THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS SUCH
INFLUENCE, MOVING THE
UNITED STATES TO ONE SIDE
DOESN'T ENCOURAGE YOU TO SAY,
"OH, NOW THAT THE U.S. IS GONE,
I WANT BRAZIL TO BE MY BOSS."
NO.
IT DOESN'T WORK THAT WAY.
BRAZIL HAS CREATED MECHANISMS,
LIKE MERCOSUR, WHICH WAS
SUPPOSED TO BE A FREE-TRADE
AREA.
IT'S NOW, BASICALLY, A POLITICAL
LEFTIST TALK VENUE, IF YOU WILL.
IT CREATED UNASUR -- A UNION OF
SOUTH AMERICAN REPUBLICS WITH NO
UNITED STATES AND NO CANADA,
DELIBERATELY MEANT TO EXCLUDE
THE UNITED STATES.
AND THEY SAID, "WE'RE GONNA
AGREE TO EVERYTHING BY
CONSENSUS."
BUT OF COURSE, YOU KNOW, WHAT
IT'S BECOME, ALSO, IS A GAB FEST
BECAUSE WHEN EVERYBODY GETS THE
CHANCE TO TALK -- THERE IS NO
LEADERSHIP, AND THE MOST RADICAL
VOICES, LIKE CHáVEZ, WILL OFTEN
WIN OUT.
AND I MIGHT SAY THIS -- I THINK
THE BRAZILIANS MISREAD THE
LESSONS OF HISTORY.
THEY LOOKED AT THE E.U., AND
THEY SAID, "LOOK AT THE E.U.
THESE ARE INDEPENDENT
COUNTRIES -- STRONG SENSE OF
SOVEREIGNTY.
THEY FOUGHT TWO GREAT, BIG
WARS.
BUT HERE, THEY ALL OF A SUDDEN
DECIDED TO WORK TOGETHER -- THE
EUROPEAN UNION."
BUT WHAT THE BRAZILIANS MISSED
WAS THAT THE EUROPEANS WENT
THROUGH TWO WORLD WARS, LOST
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, AND AT THE
END OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR,
THEY SAID, "YOU KNOW WHAT?
THIS DOESN'T MAKE AN AWFUL LOT
OF SENSE.
WE ARE GONNA GIVE A LITTLE BIT
OF OUR SOVEREIGNTY TO THE
EUROPEAN UNION, BUT, IN ORDER
TO -- IN ORDER THAT WE CAN LIVE
IN PEACE AND PROSPERITY."
>> WITHOUT THE WAR EXPERIENCE,
IS THERE ANY WAY TO BUILD THESE
BRIDGES AND OVERCOME THESE
DIFFERENCES?
BRAZIL HAS A UNIQUE POSITION
BECAUSE IT BORDERS SO MANY OF
THE COUNTRIES OF SOUTH AMERICA.
>> YES.
YES, BUT, YOU KNOW, THE
TREATMENT THAT BRAZIL AFFORDS
SOME OF ITS NEIGHBORS IS NOT
MEANT TO ENDEAR ANYWAY.
THERE ARE COMPLAINTS IN
LATIN AMERICA ABOUT BRAZILIAN
IMPERIALISM.
FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN THE PRESIDENT
OF HONDURAS WAS OVERTHROWN, THE
BRAZILIANS DIDN'T THINK THIS WAS
RIGHT, AND THEY GAVE ASYLUM IN
THEIR EMBASSY TO THAT DEPOSED
PRESIDENT.
AND THEY KEPT HIM THERE FOR, I
BELIEVE, A YEAR.
THEY FREQUENTLY TREAD ON
BRAZILIAN TOES.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE -- BOLIVIAN
TOES -- THE BOLIVIANS A COUPLE
OF YEARS AGO FINALLY HAD TO
TELL A BRAZILIAN CONSTRUCTION
COMPANY THAT IT HAD TO LEAVE
BOLIVIA BECAUSE THEY WERE TRYING
TO BUILD A ROAD RIGHT THROUGH AN
INDIGENOUS PRESERVE.
THE SAME THING HAPPENED IN
ECUADOR.
A BRAZILIAN FIRM WAS EXPELLED.
URUGUAY AND PARAGUAY ARE TREATED
LIKE MINOR PARTNERS IN THE
MERCOSUR.
THEY'RE NOT ALLOWED TO ENTER
INTO FREE-TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH
OTHER COUNTRIES.
NOW LET ME GIVE YOU A GOOD
EXAMPLE -- PARAGUAY.
IN PARAGUAY, THE PRESIDENT OF
PARAGUAY WAS DEPOSED UNDER THE
CONSTITUTION BECAUSE THE SENATE
DIDN'T LIKE HIM, AND TWO,
BECAUSE MERCOSUR, AT THE URGING
OF BRAZIL, WANTED TO ADMIT
VENEZUELA AS A FULL MEMBER OF
MERCOSUR.
BUT VENEZUELA DOESN'T BELIEVE IN
MARKET ECONOMICS, AND THE
PARAGUAYAN SENATE SAID, "NO,
THIS WILL RUIN PARAGUAY."
SO WHEN THE SENATE OVERTHREW THE
PRESIDENT, BRAZIL AND
ARGENTINA -- BOTH FOUNDING
MEMBERS OF MERCOSUR --
SUSPENDED PARAGUAY'S MEMBERSHIP
AND IMMEDIATELY INVITED CHáVEZ
INTO MERCOSUR.
NOW, YOU KNOW, THAT'S THE KIND
OF TREATMENT THAT IS NOT LOST ON
THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE
REGION.
SO BRAZIL HAS TO TREAD VERY,
VERY LIGHTLY BECAUSE THERE IS
THE SENSE THAT "A," NOBODY WANTS
TO, YOU KNOW, ADOPT A NEW MENTOR
NOW THAT THE UNITED STATES IS
NOT DOING THAT, BUT TWO, THEY
WANT TO BE TREATED A LITTLE
BETTER, AND THREE, SOVEREIGNTY
IS AT THE HIGHEST WATERMARK THAT
I CAN RECALL IN MY LIFE IN
SOUTH AMERICA.
IT'S EVERYWHERE.
YOU KNOW, AND IT'S REFLECTED IN
BORDER DISPUTES -- CHILE AND
PERU OVER THE MARITIME BORDER, A
DISPUTE THAT HAS JUST RECENTLY
EMERGED WITH COLOMBIA AND
NICARAGUA, WHERE NICARAGUA WENT
TO THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF
JUSTICE AND GOT A BIG CHUNK OF
MARITIME SEA AWARDED TO IT BY
THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF
JUSTICE AND CAUSED A TREMENDOUS
BROUHAHA IN COLOMBIA BECAUSE
THEY THOUGHT THEY HAD LOST A
COUPLE OF ISLANDS.
THEY DIDN'T.
BUT THEY LOST 75,000 SQUARE
KILOMETERS OF TERRITORIAL SEA,
PLUS A PRESERVE CALLED THE
SEAFLOWER PRESERVE, AND
NICARAGUA NOT ONLY WANTS MORE
LAND FROM SOME OF THE OTHER
NEIGHBORS, IT ALSO ACTUALLY
WANTS A PROVINCE OF COSTA RICA
AND WANTS TO BE ABLE TO DRILL
FOR OIL IN THAT PART OF THE
OCEAN THAT USED TO BELONG TO
COLOMBIA.
SO SOVEREIGNTY IS AT A VERY HIGH
PITCH.
BOLIVIA IS WATCHING THE SUIT
THAT'S IN BETWEEN PERU AND
CHILE.
IF PERU WINS AGAINST CHILE,
BOLIVIA'S SURE TO GO TO THE
INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE
TO TRY TO RECOVER ACCESS TO THE
PACIFIC.
ARGENTINA WANTS SOME DEFINITIVE
RESOLUTION OF THE
FALKLAND ISLANDS.
AND THEN THE SPANISH ARE SITTING
THERE IN EUROPE WATCHING HOW
ARGENTINA DOES WITH ENGLAND IN
CASE THEY CAN APPLY THE SAME
TACTICS TO RECOVERING GIBRALTAR.
THERE'S A LOT BOILING UP IN
LATIN AMERICA, BUT ONE OF THE
MOTIVE FORCES IS SOVEREIGNTY.
THIS MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BRAZIL TO EXERCISE LEADERSHIP.
>> WHAT WOULD YOU SAY IS THE
STRONGEST U.S. RELATIONSHIP IN
SOUTH AMERICA?
>> TODAY, IT'S PROBABLY
COLOMBIA, MAINLY BECAUSE WE PUT
$11 BILLION INTO COLOMBIA,
BEGINNING IN 2001, TO HELP CUT
DOWN THE GUERRILLAS, DEAL WITH
NARCO TRAFFICKING.
AND COLOMBIA HAS ALWAYS BEEN A
PRETTY GOOD ALLY OF THE
UNITED STATES, DESPITE THE FACT
THAT COLOMBIA LOST A PLACE
CALLED PANAMA BECAUSE OF
PRESIDENT ROOSEVELT.
>> AND SECOND PLACE WOULD BE,
WHAT, CHILE, PERHAPS?
>> PERHAPS CHILE. YEAH.
>> AND WHAT'S BRAZIL'S
RELATIONSHIP WITH THOSE TWO
COUNTRIES?
>> IT HAS A GOOD RELATIONSHIP
WITH CHILE.
BUT CHILE, IN AND OF ITSELF, HAS
BEEN A POWER FOR A LONG TIME IN
THAT PART OF THE WORLD.
CHILE IS A SMALL BUT RATHER
POTENT CREATURE.
BUT IT'S NOT IDENTIFIED AS
TOTALLY PRO-AMERICAN.
I MEAN, I THINK THAT THE
PRO-AMERICANISM GROWS AS YOU GO
FROM SOUTH AMERICA NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA, THE CARIBBEAN,
MEXICO.
BUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
UNITED STATES WAS MUCH LESS
CHUMMY UP UNTIL WORLD WAR II,
WHEN THE UNITED STATES SUDDENLY
REALIZED THAT THE NAZIS HAD
DESIGNS -- THE AXIS, NOT JUST
THE NAZIS -- ON SOUTH AMERICA,
WHICH PRODUCED A LOT OF RAW
MATERIALS, WHICH GERMANY NEEDED.
SO SOUTH AMERICANS EMERGED FROM
WORLD WAR II LOOKING AT AMERICA
IN A VERY DIFFERENT WAY THAN
THEY HAD JUST FOUR OR FIVE YEARS
BEFORE.
>> YOU'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THE
ECONOMY OF THIS REGION, AND
INDEED THE ENTIRE HEMISPHERE,
FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
WHERE ARE YOU IN TERMS OF WHERE
IT'S GOING?
>> I THINK GREATER FREE TRADE
AROUND THE WORLD IS GONNA
BENEFIT ALL THE COUNTRIES OF
LATIN AMERICA.
A GREATER DIVERSIFICATION OF
EXPORTS IS GONNA HELP.
YOU KNOW, JUST SELLING
COMMODITIES MAY MAKE YOU A LOT
MONEY, LIKE IT DID TO THE RUBBER
BARONS IN BRAZIL, BUT, IN THE
END, YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE MORE TO
SELL.
>> WELL, THANK YOU FOR JOINING
US TODAY, AMBASSADOR FRECHETTE.
>> MY PLEASURE, JOHN.
>> AND THANK YOU.
FOR "GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES," I'M
JOHN BERSIA, AND WE'LL SEE YOU
NEXT TIME.