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  • As of this video's writing, March 22nd, 2020, we're almost four months into a brave

    這影片在 2020 年 3 月 22 號上傳,也代表我們已勇敢地經歷了

  • new COVID-19 world.

    四個月的新冠狀病毒的生活。

  • Since the initial public reports of the Novel Coronavirus on December 31st of 2019, we've

    在 2019 年 12 月 31 號第一起對外宣布的新冠狀病毒病例後,我們

  • had over 300,000 confirmed cases, nearly 200,000 of which are still active.

    就有超過 30 萬件的病例,而目前還有將近 20 萬的確診者。

  • While recoveries are still vastly outnumbering deaths – 95,000 to 13,000 at the time of

    雖然復原率仍然遠遠大於死亡數-就像是現在的數據是 9 萬 5 千人

  • this countingthe disease has already caused massive changes to how we as individuals

    相對於 1 萬 3 千人-這個病毒已經大大改變了我們作為

  • and as a society have lived our lives.

    一個個體或是一個群體的生活方式。

  • Scientists and epidemiologists have estimated that it could take as long as eighteen months,

    科學家和流行病學家都估計這個冠狀病毒將會需要 18 個月的時間,

  • or potentially even more, to research, develop, and distribute a workable vaccine.

    也有可能會需要更多的時間來研究、開發、並且配送一個可行性的疫苗。

  • Many optimists believe that, if governmental roll out of treatment is effective and containment

    很多樂觀者相信,如果政府有效地推出治療和遵循

  • procedures are followed, we may see cases begin to abate during the Summer months in

    隔離的規範,我們可能可以看到病例會在夏天時減少,就像

  • much the same way we do during flu season.

    是我們遇到的季節性流感一樣。

  • However, while it's nice to hope for the best, it can often be more useful to plan

    話雖如此,雖然期許是最好的一件事情,但能未雨綢繆也時常是件

  • for the worst-case scenario.

    很有益的事。

  • What if the pandemic does continue as it does now for those whole eighteen months, or even beyond?

    如果病毒大流行真的持續了整整 18 個月,又或者更久呢?

  • While this is a fast-developing situation and the facts of the case tend to evolve day

    雖然這是一個無法預料的情況,但這件事可能會每天都

  • by day, we can turn to experts and look at their current predictions for what an eighteen-month-or-beyond

    有所變化,我們可以尋求專家們的意見,並且觀望他們目前所預測 18 個月後的

  • pandemic might look like.

    病毒大流行可能會是怎樣。

  • Also, keep in mind: The best way to avoid the adverse effects of the Coronavirus on

    除此之外,要謹記一件事情:要避免感染到這個冠狀病毒最好的方法就是,

  • a personal level is to avoid catching it in the first place.

    就個人而言就是要先預防病毒。

  • In order to do this, maintain social distancing, stay indoors, wash your hands frequently,

    為了要達到這個目標:保持一個社交安全距離、待在室內、經常洗乾淨你們的雙手、

  • and don't touch your face.

    並且不要觸摸你們的臉。

  • Before we take a look at where we might be heading with the COVID-19 pandemic, we first

    在預測未來我們怎麼面對新型冠狀病毒之前,我們必須要先

  • need to take a look at where we've been, and chart the course of the virus' growth

    看看我們現在處在什麼情況下,並且持續觀察病毒的

  • and spread over time.

    成長動向和擴散。

  • As we previously mentioned, the first whisperings of the virus happened publicly in late December of 2019.

    我們剛剛提到,第一個冠狀病毒的吹哨者出現在 2019 年 12 月底。

  • Chinese health officials traced 41 cases of mysterious pneumonia back to the Huanan Seafood

    大陸衛生官員回到武漢華南海鮮批發市場,也就是被認為是首例

  • Wholesale Market, where the virus is believed to have infected its first human hosts.

    人類受感染的所在地,追蹤 41 個肺炎可疑的病例。

  • Coronaviruses are Zoonotic diseases, meaning they originate in the animal kingdom before

    冠狀病毒是人畜共通的傳染病,意思指的是這個病毒在傳染給人類宿主之前,

  • passing to human hosts.

    是存在於動物宿主的身上。

  • After drawing the connection on January 1st, the Chinese government put the kibosh on the

    在 1 月 1 號了解病毒感染源後,大陸官員關閉了這個

  • exotic meat market, but by then it was already too late to contain the disease.

    野生的鮮肉市場,不過在此時也無法抑制這個病毒了。

  • Chinese scientists first identified COVID-19 a week later, and by the 11th of January,

    在中國科學家第一次承認新型冠狀病毒一個禮拜後,也就是在 1 月 11 號,

  • China reported their first COVID-19 death.

    中國大陸宣布了他們第一例的新型冠狀病毒的死亡病例。

  • By January 20th, 2020, COVID-19 had already been exported across the globe.

    而在 2020 年的 1 月 20 號,新型冠狀病毒也已經散佈到全球各地。

  • Cases were reported in Thailand and the US, and by January 23rd, the Chinese government

    病例出現在泰國和美國,而在 1 月 23 號,中國政府

  • put the entire city of Wuhan under strict quarantine.

    對整個武漢市採取嚴格的封閉管理。

  • By the end of the month, the World Health Organization had declared a public health

    而在 1 月底時,世界衛生組織發佈了一個公共衛生

  • emergency, and President Trump had issued a ban on travelling to the US for those who'd

    緊急事件,而美國總統川普也宣佈了一條禁令,就是那些在武漢

  • been in Wuhan up to two weeks prior to travelling.

    旅遊過兩個禮拜的人不行到美國旅遊。

  • The first ten days of February saw infections spike both inside and outside China, as well

    在 2 月的 10 幾天,可以看到感染數不管是在大陸內地或外地都快速飆高,而且

  • as the first deaths in the Philippines and the death of a United States citizen in Wuhan.

    在菲律賓發生的第一例死亡病例,以及死於武漢的美國公民。

  • By the ninth of February, the death toll in China had surpassed that of the 2002-2003

    而在 2 月 9 號,大陸的死亡數已經超過發生在 2002 年到 2003 年的

  • SARS epidemic with 811 fatalities.

    SARS 傳染病 881 條的死亡人數。

  • February also gave us the virus' name, COVID-19, as well as huge outbreaks in the US, South

    在 2 月的時候,我們也為這個病毒取名為 COVID-19 ,而在美國、南韓、

  • Korea, Iran, and Italy.

    伊朗、和義大利也開始大爆發。

  • The end of February also brought the first deaths on US soil, as the devastation continued

    在 2 月底時,美國也發生了第一起死亡病例,而這樣的災難也持續

  • into March.

    到三月。

  • Early March saw cases pop up on every continent across the globe, as well as a declaration

    在三月初,全球每個國家都開始出現病例,同時世界衛生組織

  • of global pandemic from the World Health Organization.

    也宣布這個全國性的病毒大流行。

  • In the wake of increasing case numbers and skyrocketing COVID-19 deaths, countries have

    在新型冠狀病毒病例和死亡數持續飆升後,世界各個國家也

  • ramped up their quarantine and safety measures across the planet.

    執行了隔離檢疫和安全防備措施。

  • On March 17th, a leaked government plan revealed the possibility that the pandemic could potentially

    在 3 月 17 號,一個從官方洩漏出的計畫指出這個冠狀病毒大流行將可能會

  • last as long as eighteen months, and come in multiple waves rather than being a single, linear progression.

    持續 18 個月之久,並且會有很多次的爆發,而不是平穩性的發生一次而已。

  • This brings us to the present.

    這讓我們回到現況。

  • It's clear that the progression has been extremely rapid, with an almost unprecedented global spread.

    這個疫情無疑地發生的非常快速,毫無預警地擴散至全世界。

  • Some government measures may slow the global rate of transmission slightly, but where can

    有些政府的措施可能可以稍微減緩全國擴散的機率,但我們

  • we expect to go from here?

    要對這情況抱持著什麼樣的心態呢?

  • We've seen a huge rush of school closures and event cancellations across the globe,

    我們見識到匆忙地下令關閉學校,以及全世界的活動取消,

  • as well as the closing of non-essential meeting places like bars, theatres, and dine-in restaurants.

    和關閉了不必要的見面場所,像是酒吧、電影院、和餐廳內用。

  • These trends are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and affect almost every

    這些措施可能還會在持續地一段時間,並且深深地影響到我們

  • aspect of our lives, from food to entertainment to healthcare.

    之後各個層面的生活,從食、娛樂、到衛生保健方面。

  • Entertainment is moving increasingly towards streaming and video-on-demand, with major

    娛樂活動以即時傳輸媒體和影片的需求日益增加,像是

  • releases like Wonder Woman: 1984 skipping its theatrical run entirely and moving directly

    1984 年的神力女超人電影播映:整整省略了電影院的播放,並馬上

  • towards VOD-releasing.

    播映在 VOD 平台上。

  • If we're looking at a protracted pandemic, we'll likely see more more and more releases

    如果我們看著這個無限期延長的病毒大流行情況下,我們可能就

  • forego their theatrical runs and go straight to video on demand.

    會選擇在線上看影片,而放棄電影的播映方式。

  • However, this actually has wider implications for your entertainment as a whole.

    不過這樣的情形下,也大大意味了你們之後的娛樂方式。

  • Production sets for movies and television involve a lot of people working in close proximity

    電影和電視的拍攝製作過程中,會有很多員工近距離一起工作-

  • making them huge transmission risks.

    導致他們處在一個受感染的危機之中。

  • As a result, it's unlikely new movies and TV shows would be made, so you better get

    因此可能暫時都不會有新的電影或是電視節目,所以你們最好開始

  • used to enjoying re-runs of all your favorite shows.

    習慣重複看那些你們愛的電視節目。

  • Thankfully, many internet content creatorslike this showare less likely to

    幸運的是,有很多網媒內容創作者-像是我們這個節目-因為是比較小的團體,

  • be affected due to having smaller teams.

    所以受到的影響比較小。

  • So, there will be plenty more new videos to get you through the boredom of quarantine.

    所以之後還是會有很多新的影片,讓你們都可以在無聊的檢疫隔離期間觀賞。

  • The National Debt is something that's also likely to rise.

    美國國債可能會升高。

  • The US Federal Reserve has already spent trillions of dollars in market fluctuation relief and

    美國聯邦準備系統 (美國的中央銀行體系) 已經花了幾兆元來減輕市場的波動,

  • the US government has also recently spent $100 billion as part of a COVID-19 relief package.

    而美國政府最近也花了 1000 億來作為新型冠狀病毒的補助策略。

  • These numbers are likely to continue rising over the eighteen-month period,

    如果這個病毒大流行真的持續影響 18 個月之久

  • if the pandemic does indeed last that long.

    這些金額可能會持續地增加。

  • Many areas in the US have adopted temporary policies forbidding eviction for the lack

    美國許多地區也採用了很多暫時性的政策:禁止驅趕那些

  • of rent due to the unprecedented levels of sudden unemployment.

    因為這場突如其來的失業潮無法負擔起租金的租戶。

  • Other proposed legislation will likely increase pay for sick leave, and also move towards

    其他提出的法案像是補助請病假的員工,並且給予

  • financial relief for small businesses suffering due to shut-downs.

    因疫情關閉的小企業財務的紓困。

  • School closures over the next eighteen months will also cause massive disruption to education

    學校關閉整整 18 個月的話,可能會大大地打亂了

  • systems across the globe.

    全球的教育體系。

  • High school exams being cancelled will lead to huge reductions in college admissions,

    取消大學聯考則會大大減少了大學入學率,

  • essentially stalling the college system for over a year while new systems and technology

    基本上延遲大學制度持續一年之久的過程中,可以透過新的體制或是技術

  • are developed to work around the COVID-19 pandemic.

    來開發出新型冠狀病毒的疫苗。

  • If classes do resume, they'll likely be online, using services such as Zoom that've

    如果開始上課的話,學生們可能會以線上上課的學習方式,就像是用 Zoom 這個學習平台,

  • grown extremely popular as of late.

    這個平台最近非常受歡迎。

  • Many commentators have observed that social distancing will likely fundamentally change

    許多評論家指出就算經歷了 18 個月的冠狀病毒大流行之下,

  • our way of life for years to come, even after the 18-month pandemic concludes.

    這樣的社交安全距離基本上可能只是會慢慢地改變我們之後的生活習慣。

  • In the short term, writer Gideon Lichfield posits that the following businesses are likely

    在短期內,Gideon Lichfield 作家指出幾個產業將可能會

  • to be the most damaged by protracted, mandatory social distancing: restaurants, cafes, bars,

    因長期社交安全距離的規定而有所損失:餐廳、咖啡廳、酒吧、

  • nightclubs, gyms, hotels, theaters, cinemas, art galleries, shopping malls, craft fairs,

    夜店、體育館、飯店、劇院、電影院、藝術畫廊、百貨公司、手工藝品展覽、

  • museums, musicians and other performers, sporting venues and sports teams, conference venues

    博物館、音樂製作人和其他的表演家、運動場地和運動團體、會議場地和

  • and conference producers, cruise lines, airlines, public transportation, private schools, and

    會議籌畫人、郵輪、航班、公共運輸、私立學校、和

  • day-care centers.

    日照中心。

  • Huge stresses to these businesses will likely shift the economy on a fundamental level,

    產業受到的這些高壓將會讓經濟回到基本程度上,

  • leading to what some economists have dubbed theshut-in economy.”

    最後則成了經濟學者們所稱之的「宅經濟」。

  • The 18-month pandemic also throws the prospect of future federal and state elections into

    18 個月的病毒大流行下也讓未來的聯邦和州選舉遙遙無期,

  • question, considering the amount of public gathering at polling stations that's usually

    因為只要想到投票這件事情,就是會有一大群的人

  • required during voting.

    聚集在投票所。

  • The economic and political nature of the entire planet is likely to shift over the coming

    全球一直以來的經濟和政治模式可能將在幾個月後有所

  • monthswith consolation prizes being the sudden reduction of carbon emissions from

    改變-在這個危機的時刻,因為人們在家工作以及一落千丈的國際旅遊,

  • working at home and the complete nosedive of international travel during the current crisis.

    二氧化碳的排放量劇減就像是個安慰獎一樣。

  • Many predict that the only conceivable way to manage future pandemics in the wake of

    很多人預言有鑑於這個新型冠狀病毒的災難,唯一可行的方法來控制

  • COVID-19's devastation will be to develop better healthcare systems, and sophisticated

    未來可能出現的傳染病,就是要建立一個較好的衛生保健體系,並且擁有尖端的

  • technology to predict, detect, and treat those at risk before outbreaks even have an opportunity

    技術來推測、偵測、並有危機意識地對這些任何可能會成為

  • to become epidemics and pandemics.

    傳染病或是全球大流行的爆發有所準備。

  • Still, in the short term, many have predicted issues with supply shortagesalready precipitated

    不過在短期來看,有很多人都預測供給會有所短缺-焦慮累積之下,

  • with rampant panic buying at many retail environments across the globe, as well as dangerous medical

    全球捲起零售商購買風潮,以及危險藥品的

  • supply shortages that could leave some of the most vulnerable in real danger.

    短缺,可能會因而導致那些更虛弱的人更加危險。

  • Many predict that, using the precedent of prior pandemics, the stress of worldwide lockdowns

    許多人預測,從先前病毒大流行下的例子來看,全世界的鎖國和

  • and supply shortages could result in widespread riots and civil unrest.

    供應的短缺壓力下,可能會因而導致大規模的暴動和內亂。

  • This could not only succeed in spreading the virus further, but will also expend valuable

    而這樣不只會快速地向外散播病毒,同時也花費政府那些有益的

  • government resources better spent treating cases of the virus itself.

    資源在其他地方,而不是在治療病毒上。

  • Also, it goes without saying that people's lives would also be negatively affected by

    除此之外,更不用說人們的生活會因此受到負面影響,

  • the violence itself.

    導致暴力事件的發生。

  • The New York Times outlined a numerical worst-case-scenario for the pandemic in the US: If things go badly,

    紐約時報預測在冠狀病毒大流行下的美國可能會遇到的最慘情況:如果事情變得一發不可收拾的話,

  • 160 million to 214 million people could be infected with COVID-19 over a brief pandemic period.

    1 億 6000 萬至 2 億 1400 萬的人會在這個疫情大爆發下受到新型冠狀病毒的感染。

  • This leaves the door open for 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths, and between 2.4 million and

    這可能就會導致 20 萬至 1 千 7 百萬的死亡病例,以及介於 2 千 4 百萬至

  • 21 million hospitalizations.

    2 千 1 百萬的人住院自療。

  • Thisin addition to the social distancing measures required to prevent further devastation

    還有社交安全距離來防止病毒向外擴散之外,

  • will likely cause economic devastation that's hard to predict.

    可能也會因此導致經濟的衰退,這點更是難以估計。

  • There's likely to be further job losses, as well as continued market instability that

    可能會有更多人失業,市場上的不穩定會持續下去,

  • could affect everything from employment rates to currency values.

    並可能會影響到就業機率和貨幣價值。

  • Ironically, stretching the pandemic over a protracted period of timesuch as eighteen

    諷刺的是,病毒大流行延延續了一段時間-像是 18

  • monthscould actually bode well for society overall.

    個月之久-最終還是對整個社會是件好事(可藉機充實自己)。

  • You may have heard the phraseflattening the curverecently, but not had it fully explained.

    你們最近可能都有聽過這個說法:「壓平曲線 (是針對疫情快速爆發下的一種控制措施)」,不過你們從來都不知道它的真正意思。

  • Essentially, it's extremely likely that large portions of the US will be infected

    不管未來會發生什麼事情,基本上,這個新型冠狀病毒在美國

  • with COVID-19, regardless of what happens.

    將可能會影響到更多人。

  • In order to ensure best results, social distancing spreads the infections over time, allowing

    為了要有一個最好的結果,就是要保持一個社交安全距離來防止病毒的擴散,

  • the healthcare system to support a smaller number of cases over a longer period of time.

    允許衛生保健體制來保護那些長期未復原的少數病例。

  • If the cases spike massively in a short period of time, while the pandemic will technically

    如果在短時間內病例飆高,雖然這大流行下可能可讓

  • be over earlier, it will overwhelm the healthcare system and cause a much larger death toll.

    這疫情快點結束,但也可能會造成醫療體系崩壞以及更多的死亡例。

  • In other words, the longer the disease lasts, the better off everyone involved will be.

    換句話來說,這個病毒持續得越久,對每個人相關人士都是好事。

  • In the meantime, scientists are developing fifteen different potential vaccines across

    同時,全球科學家們正研究 15 種可能的疫苗,

  • the globe, using diverse technologies that include mRNA, DNA, nanoparticle, synthetic,

    使用了多樣化的科技,像是信使核糖核酸、脱氧核醣核酸、奈米科技、合成胜、

  • and modified virus-like particles to hasten the process.

    並且修改冠狀病毒顆粒來加快過程。

  • Phase 1 clinical trials are beginning in multiple countries for various potential COVID-19 vaccines

    第一階段是臨床實驗,對於那些可能是新型冠狀病毒疫苗和治療方式已經在數個

  • and treatments, though as stated before, many of these could take as long as eighteen months

    國家展開研究,不過在前面提到過,在可能可以問世之前,這些疫苗和治療可能

  • to potentially be offered to the publicespecially when factoring in testing and distribution time.

    需要長達 18 個月的時間-特別是還要觀察檢測和藥劑配送的時間。

  • While the vaccine will ultimately be a huge part of ending the pandemic, it's an end

    雖然疫苗將會是終結這個病毒大流行的主要關鍵,但離疫情的結束遙遙無期,

  • so far off that it's not worth banking on for the time being.

    所以不要抱持著無謂的指望。

  • The fact is, the world is currently united in one cause: Fighting the COVID-19 virus,

    事實上,全世界現在有個共同目標:打擊新型冠狀病毒,

  • and preventing it from claiming and ruining lives as much as we can.

    並且致力於預防它的擴散和扼殺掉更多的生命。

  • Everyone on Earth has a responsibility to reduce the spread of the disease by maintaining

    在地球上的每個人都有責任來降低這個疾病的擴散,

  • social distance, keeping good hygiene, and staying informed through reliable sources

    像是保持社交距離、維持好的衛生條件、並且持續關注有公信力的資訊,

  • like the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control.

    像是來自世界衛生組織以及衛生福利部疾病管制中心。

  • While frightening scenarios like an eighteen-month pandemic are becoming increasingly likely

    雖然這些令人擔憂的未來,像是一個持續 18 個月的病毒大流行,會隨著時間累積的越來越

  • over time, all we can do is be responsible and compassionate, and work together in fighting

    多,但我們現在能做的事情就是承擔責任和富有同情心的,並且一起合作擊敗

  • the viral threat that unites us.

    這個病毒所帶來的威脅。

  • Thank you for watching this episode of The Infographics Show.

    謝謝你們收看這一集的 The Infographics Show 。

  • We realize these can be scary times, but we're here to keep you occupied.

    我們知道這些事情是令人害怕的,但我們都在這邊讓你們不感到孤單。

  • If you want more information on diseases and our response to them, check outWhy Spanish

    如果你們想要知道更多有關疾病的資訊還有我們的回覆,就到「為什麼西班牙

  • Flu Killed Over 50 Million PeopleDeadliest Plague In Modern HistoryandWhat If

    流感扼殺了 5 千多萬的人-現代史記中致命的瘟疫史」和「如果

  • Ebola Infected The Whole World.”

    全世界的人都感染伊波拉病毒的話」。

  • In the meantime, stay indoors, wash your hands, and get that hand off your face!

    同時也要盡量待在室內、洗乾淨你們的雙手、並且不要用手觸摸你們的臉!

As of this video's writing, March 22nd, 2020, we're almost four months into a brave

這影片在 2020 年 3 月 22 號上傳,也代表我們已勇敢地經歷了

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 美國腔 病毒 冠狀 病例 流行 衛生 疫情

如果COVID-19大流行持續18個月或以上怎麼辦? (What If the COVID-19 Pandemic Lasts 18 Months or More?)

  • 44 4
    Annie Huang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字