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  • now is the time, and we actually don't have a choice.

  • We must re imagine our electrical system, because so much in society hinges on it.

  • For us today.

  • You have to understand the issues, and you have to find the relationships that are sometimes a little bit obscure.

  • The water in that glass is actually related to the power in your phone.

  • Too much water, too little water will actually determine whether or not you've got power.

  • This slide is from NASA.

  • It's a slide of the soil moisture content for North America.

  • What you see is from the year 2000 till now, from now until 2095.

  • Clearly, what you're seeing is dramatic, unprecedented change.

  • And it's interesting because we're starting to realize this, even at a government level.

  • So the BC government about two weeks ago said that they were not sure whether or not there was gonna be enough water behind the dams.

  • B.

  • C has some of the best hydro electric assets in the world.

  • They weren't sure if there was gonna be enough water behind the dams in 10 years to meet their clean energy goals.

  • California.

  • We're seeing devastating effects of lack of water.

  • In fact, the utility down there is shutting off parts of the grid because they're afraid that the grid is actually gonna catch the place on fire this year, even without awareness, their policy of no grid activity in certain areas has created 19 fires.

  • In 2017 and 2018 tens of billions of dollars of damage were created by these fires created by the energy infrastructure.

  • A town of 27,000 people was obliterated and sadly, 85,000 Sorry, 85 people were killed.

  • You also see this in things like the Hurricane Maria.

  • For Puerto Rico, the flooding and the devastation, their tops $90 billion.

  • Their grid was so vulnerable that even after three months of rebuilding, 45% of their population did not have power.

  • Can you imagine what your life would be like if you did not have power for three months?

  • What we learned in that is that you cannot react to these issues.

  • Once the wheels have fallen off the bus, you can't steer the bus.

  • We have to start getting in front of this way also.

  • Now we're seeing destructive storms.

  • They call them psych bomb cyclones on the US side in 17 2001 storm alone caused 100,000 power outages, one storm locally.

  • We saw a similar phenomena for five days.

  • Some people did not have power last year.

  • It's getting worse.

  • These problems are not all inked.

  • A weather, of course.

  • The aging infrastructure.

  • It's starting to become more difficult to maintain, starting to become unreliable.

  • This summer in London, southern part of England, they had an unexpected blackout.

  • That blackout wiped out the Internet, wiped out mobile phones, wiped out the trains, subways.

  • Even the hospitals were affected because their backup systems did not come online and they were fighting off to their back foot.

  • Some described it as apocalyptic.

  • So what happened there?

  • It was one power strike, one power spike.

  • Rather, two generators snapped off line and millions or without power.

  • So what's happening now?

  • There are places in this province that are solely relying on diesel for their power.

  • It's the only thing.

  • Remote communities.

  • First nations.

  • They are paying anywhere between 44 80/80 cents a kilowatt hour.

  • But that means is they're paying more than 4 to 8 times what we're doing today down here.

  • There's a really cool problem with this, and it's around their energy sovereignty.

  • So the government has a role in all of this.

  • That role generally, you wanted to be good, but sometimes it's bad.

  • Policy can steer the participants into wanted and needed changes of behavior.

  • Bad policy, though that is not well thought through knee jerk.

  • Simply following popular opinion sometimes leads us to unintended consequences.

  • Thes politicians feel pressure to feel pressure from the constituents for evey charging stations.

  • They feel pressure from the international world to do something about climate change.

  • Like the Paris agreement, Norway has jumped out and said, We're gonna do something about it In Norway, they will be banning the sale of gasoline cars in the year 2025.

  • That's only five years from now.

  • No gas cars are going to be sold.

  • BC is trying to do its part as well.

  • 2040 is when we will not have gasoline cars sold here.

  • It was good policies of bad policy.

  • Well, it's gonna be We're gonna tell overtime really depend on how these pieces are put together.

  • But this energy consumption is hitting unprecedented levels.

  • Smartphone, smart homes, high voltage TV cars.

  • You know, this is really starting to go the other way.

  • We have energy efficient lighting and energy efficient appliances that aren't doing the offset.

  • Building now has about 40% more domestic load than it had before.

  • So this unmet demand it's starting to show up in society.

  • Just two weeks ago.

  • Bc hydro Give us a report They said one in four electric vehicle owners, one and four had gone into an altercation at a electric charging station.

  • One and four had an altercation.

  • You're starting to see you now.

  • Society starting to feel this.

  • This is before the ban of gas electricity.

  • Our gas vehicles actually kicks in.

  • So you take a look.

  • There are big buildings 100 cars.

  • What are we going to do?

  • Are we going to try and bring so much high voltage power into a building that everyone has their own charging station?

  • That's huge power.

  • Where is that coming from?

  • How is it getting there?

  • Oh, and that's just one building.

  • What about the dozens that are around?

  • How are we going to do that?

  • I heard an interesting statistic, actually.

  • just yesterday at the clean tech conference it will take.

  • If every car in British Columbia today was electric.

  • It would take to sightsee dams to beat that demand, not one two of them.

  • And how do you keep from tearing up the city and putting this infrastructure?

  • And so we're looking squarely down the barrel of physical disruption.

  • But we have to re imagine these systems we have to change the way we're solving these problems.

  • We have to disrupt this thinking on a proactive basis.

  • Otherwise, we're gonna be like Puerto Rico and picking up the pieces.

  • We can take existing infrastructure and combine it with new models with new assets without creating content.

  • Uh um, chaos.

  • This is a micro grid.

  • So what is it?

  • It's one or more generation assets that combined with control systems that have a distribution over limited geography, these grids can be smart.

  • They can work together.

  • That brings resilience to a system in case one note goes down.

  • More importantly, it can be island ID.

  • What I mean by that is you can operate autonomously, but it's also intelligent enough to operate with the wider, great structure.

  • So this is the kind of model that we need to take a look at the advantages with new demand.

  • You can bring on new generation at assets, new storage ass.

  • It's very easily.

  • It's very flexible that way.

  • The new technologies that are being developed are mind blowing, actually, and we can incorporate those.

  • And it's a great way to de carbon eyes our existing generation profile.

  • Some of these technologies have big impacts on big fleets, so imagine a transit company.

  • They have 700 buses, electric Busses for context.

  • Abbotsford has 65.

  • Those buses have to be charged every night to take 6 to 7 hours for them to charge.

  • Can you imagine just the labor to plug and unplug 700 buses?

  • A big job?

  • Yeah, it might not be that big.

  • SHENZEN, China.

  • Let me give you some context to this in 1980 which many of you will remember.

  • It's only 50 years ago night 40 years ago.

  • Remember 40 years ago they were 30,000 people in a rural area.

  • Today, right now, they are a city of 11 million people.

  • In 40 years.

  • They're part of a continuous quarter of urbanization.

  • That house is 60 million people transcended not by 700 buses, 100% electric Busses.

  • They bought 16,000 buses, and each one of those buses need to be charged daily.

  • So you sit back and you look at the scale of some of these issues.

  • But if I said there is technology, if someone came to us and said, You know, I think I could do this better, we actually won't charge them in 6 to 7 hours.

  • We can charge them in 30 seconds, 30 seconds to fully charge an electric bus.

  • Sounds almost like science fiction, but it's actually not.

  • Two groups, one in the U.

  • K.

  • One in China are working on this technology today, and it looks viable.

  • So the time that takes to load and unload people at one bus stop can fully recharge that bus.

  • Can you imagine building that infrastructure?

  • You know, go to your boss.

  • Hey, listen, we have to charge 700 buses.

  • It's gonna take 67 hours.

  • By the way, I'm gonna need, you know, millions, maybe tens of millions of dollars to do so and have someone block up an instantly obsolete that entire infrastructure.

  • So you sit back and you say?

  • OK, why is there resistance to some of these micro grid technology is why why is this not being adopted everywhere?

  • Because it makes so much sense.

  • Lancer lies in the fact that it does have some disadvantages.

  • It's easier, but it's on a piece of paper than it is in real life.

  • It's hard to get assets to work together to balance their phases and loads.

  • So the technology is implementable today, but it's still relatively immature.

  • The interesting part when it comes to utilities, utilities were created to do things better, cheaper, more reliably for the good of society.

  • They have been guardians of us, if you will.

  • They're measured on things like grid time or grit up time and grid stability.

  • They're very risk averse with this.

  • They look at these new participants and they say, Who is this person?

  • What assets are they bringing to this?

  • Are those assets well maintained?

  • Well, those assets actually be online and ready when I need them.

  • And how do we make money?

  • Both of us participating in this So the behavior of utilities in the resistance is actually not irrational, but it is deeply misaligned to the realities of that we face.

  • We don't have time for one trick ponies anymore.

  • We don't have time for utilities who only have one speed, one business model, one way of interacting with the world.

  • There's no one magic technology, no silver bullet.

  • You know, some people say, Oh, when wind.

  • It's the only way to go.

  • Maybe, But really, it's part of a solution, and we need to take a look at it.

  • That's holistically.

  • So what needs to happen?

  • We need to think in a new way.

  • We need to problem solve in a completely different fashion.

  • Whether that's and users, entrepreneurs, utilities themselves, the regulators and the government all need to approaches differently.

  • Also, regulators and the government need to give utilities and new mandate need to fundamentally change the way the grid is operated and how it relates to these other parties.

  • And it is imperative for every community to sit down and think about how they're going to manage.

  • Not if, but when a major weather event happen, doesn't matter.

  • First world, third world urban remote It affects us all.

  • So microgrids while they are physical assets, they're also it's also a philosophical approach, a new way to bring problem solving to a new level that does not allow the old thinking of the past interfere with it.

  • You need to make this these kinds of conversations a priority.

  • You need to find out why this is gonna be a priority.

  • Is that family and friends?

  • Because you care about the environment because you care about your community.

  • But now is the time.

  • We don't have a choice.

  • We will either have to disrupt this thinking or we will be disrupted.

  • Thank you.

now is the time, and we actually don't have a choice.

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微電網與經濟電氣化|Timothy Kendrick|TEDxAbbotsford(阿博斯福) (MicroGrids & the Electrification of the Economy | Timothy Kendrick | TEDxAbbotsford)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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