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  • It's a pleasure for me, as president of the International Astronomical Federation, to welcome all you today to the concluding session off the global networking for rum for the C 2017 which has bean years access in particular.

  • I want to thank the premiere was a real minister that means and lost.

  • My job is Father Stewpot and prisons.

  • Now let me present produce our distinguished speaker for today.

  • It almost is hunger.

  • See, you and ladies.

  • I know Space six alone found its space sex in 2002 with the girl off revolutionizing space technology and intimately inhabiting humans to become a multi planetary spaces.

  • Today it will provide an update on those plans.

  • First chair at USC 2016 in weather our last year.

  • Space sex as they're the number off first, including the first private company to deliver cargo to and from the International Space Station.

  • The first entity to land an orbital class booster back on land and all on ships out of sea and the first to fly an orbital class boosted in addition to space.

  • Sex is also the CEO off test tomatoes and Sherman off Solarcity Please join me in one coming in on musk.

  • Yeah, All right.

  • Welcome to run.

  • And I'm gonna talk more about what it takes to become multiple species.

  • Um, and I just a just a brief refresher on why this is important.

  • I think fundamentally the future is vastly more exciting and interesting.

  • If we're a space faring civilization and a multi planet species that if we're not, you want to be inspired by things you wanna wake up in the morning, you think the future is gonna be great.

  • And that's what what being a space faring civilizations all about.

  • It's about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past.

  • And I can't think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.

  • That's why so, becoming going to more detail on becoming multiple species.

  • This is the updated design for but the what?

  • We were sort of searching for the right name.

  • But the code name, at least, is be a far, um, and I that probably the most important thing that I want to convey in in this presentation is that I think we have figured out how to pay for it.

  • This is very important.

  • Um, in last year's presentation, you were really searching.

  • Well, what the right way.

  • How do we pay for this thing?

  • Went through various ideas, kicks daughter collecting underpants.

  • Um, he's didn't pan out.

  • Um, but But now we think way.

  • Think about a way to do it, which is to have you have a smaller vehicle.

  • So pre pay, um, but one that conserve that where the when that can do everything that's needed in the greater Earth orbit activity.

  • So, essentially, we I want to make our current vehicles redundant.

  • Wanna have one system?

  • 12121 booster in ship that replaces Falcon nine, Falcon Heavy and dragon.

  • So if we could do that, then all the resource is that are used for felt.

  • Nine.

  • Heavy and dragon can be applied to this system.

  • So that's really fundamental.

  • Let's see what progress have we made in in this direction?

  • It's less less thing sold the giant tech that's actually 12 meter tank, uh, and you can see the relative scale of it.

  • It's 1000 cubic meters of volume in sight.

  • That's actually Maur pressurized volume than 80 80.

  • Just that into perspective.

  • We developed a new carbon fiber matrix that's much stronger and more capable at choir than anything before, and it holds 1200 tons of liquid oxygen.

  • So we tested it successfully, tested it up, too.

  • It's designed pressure and then we're a little further.

  • So you want to see where it would break.

  • And, um, we have we found out we're break.

  • It's ah sure, about three feet into the air and land in the ocean.

  • We fished it out, and but now I got a pretty good sense of what it takes to create a huge carbon fiber tank that could hold cryogenic liquid.

  • That's actually extremely important for making a light spaceship.

  • The next key element is on the engine side.

  • We have to have an extremely efficient engine, so the rapture engine will be the highest trust.

  • Wait engine.

  • We believe off having any engine of any kind ever made.

  • We're already have now 1200 seconds of firing across 42 main engine tests.

  • We fired it for 100 seconds.

  • It could fire for much longer 100 seconds.

  • That's just the size of the of the test tanks.

  • And then the duration of the firing you're seeing right now is 42nd about 40 seconds, which is the length of the firing for landing on Mars.

  • The test engine current operates at 200 atmospheres to a 200 bar.

  • The flight engine will be at 250 bar and then we believe of a time we could probably get that to a little over 300 bar.

  • Uh, the next key element is propulsive landing.

  • So in order to land on my face like the moon where there is no atmosphere and certainly no runways or to land on Mars without disappears too thin to land even if they were on wasteland with with the wing, uh, you really have to get put pull propulsive landing.

  • Perfect.

  • So that's what we've been practicing with Falcon nine.

  • Uh, this is just a series of of landing, but I think he's quite mesmerising.

  • But we now have 16 successful landings in a row, and that's with, um so the It's six in a row, and that's with it with really, without any redundancy.

  • So Falcon nine lands on a single engine.

  • The final landing is always done with with a single engine, whereas the spear far will always have multi engine out capability.

  • So if you could get to a very higher liability with even a single engine and then you can you can land and then you can land with either of two engines.

  • I think we can get to, uh, landing reliability that is on par with safest commercial airliners, so you can especially count on the landing.

  • It's not like the hey want minimum pocket proper factor on landing the and it can land with also very high precision.

  • In fact, you believe the precision at this point is good enough for you, um, propulsive landing that we do not need legs for the next version.

  • It will literally land with so much precision it will land back on its launch mounts.

  • So the launched the launch rate exhausted being it has been increasing exponentially but particular When you take tanking, we're refilling on orbit into account and taking the idea of establishing a self sustaining base on Mars or the moon or elsewhere.

  • Seriously, you need 1000 openly thousands of ships and tens of thousands of, of, of of of re tanking refueling operations, which means you need many launches per day that the key to the you really need to be looking at in terms of how many landings are occurring you need looking.

  • Are you watching your calendar?

  • So while this is quite a high Lord trait that we're talking about here by conventional standards, it's so a very small one trait compared to what will ultimately be needed.

  • Um, but just for those who are really with having over launches occur every year, it's approximately approximately 60 over launches occur per year, which means if Space X does do something like 30 launches next year, it'll be approximately half of all over launches that occur on Earth.

  • The next thing is a key technology is automated rendezvous and docking.

  • So in order to re tank, refill the spaceship in orbit, you have to be able to rendezvous and dock with the space ship with very high precision and transfer propellant.

  • So that's one of things that we've perfected with Dragon Dragon one.

  • We'll do an automated rendezvous and docking without any pilot control to the space station.

  • Dragon One currently uses the Canada on for the final placement onto the space station dragon to which launches next year, will not need to use the kind of home dragon too well, directly duck with the space station and could do so with zero human.

  • And eventually you just press, Let's go and we'll dock.

  • Um, the dragon was also allowed us to perfect Ah, heat shield technology.

  • So when you enter at high velocity, uh, you're melting with anything.

  • The reason the reason meter is doing reach earth is they they mailed to disintegrate before they reach the ground.

  • Unless the very big So you have to have a sophisticated heat shield technology that can withstand unbelievably high temperatures.

  • And that's what we've been perfecting with Dragon and also a key part of of any planet collides colonizing system next night.

  • So, Falcon One, this is where we started out.

  • You know, a lot of people I feel really only heard Space six Rosalie recently.

  • So let me think It's a Falcon nine and Dragon just is instantly appeared, and that's how it always waas.

  • But it wasn't.

  • We saw that it was just a few people who really didn't know how to make rockets.

  • Um, and the reason I ended up being the chief engineer or chief designer.

  • There's not because I wanted to you.

  • It's because I could hire anyone.

  • Um, nobody Good.

  • We're joined.

  • Um, so, um, ended up being that by default, Um, and I messed up the 1st 3 launches.

  • The 1st 3 launches failed.

  • Unfortunately, the fourth launch, which was the that was the last money that we had a fucking won.

  • The fourth launch worked, or it would have been that would have been it for Space X.

  • Um, but fate like this that day.

  • So the fourth one's worked, and it's interesting.

  • Today is the is the ninth anniversary off that launch.

  • So I didn't realize that until until I was told that just just really today, But is ah, very emotional day, actually, um, but Falcon one is quite a small rocket when we're doing Falcon were really trying to figure out what is the smallest useful payload that would get over it.

  • Look, is something around half a ton toe orbit would be able to launch.

  • You know, that one decent size small satellite to north orbit and the sorry size Falcon one.

  • Um, but it's it's really quite small compared to Falcon nine.

  • So Falcon nine, particularly when you factor in payload.

  • Um, it felt nine is many times more.

  • It's not sort of on the order of 30 times more payload, then Falcon one at and Falcon nine has re use of the primary booster, which is the most expensive part of the rocket.

  • And hopefully soon Reese of the fairing the big nose cone at the front.

  • So we're thinking, probably get to something like somewhere between 17 80% reusability with the Falcon nine system and and hopefully towards and this year will be launching fucking heavy.

  • Uh, which is it's something that we ended up in a much more complex program than we thought.

  • It sounds easy.

  • Um, you let your falcon heavy.

  • Actually, it sounds like it should be.

  • Should be easy because it's too.

  • First stages of Falcon nine strapped on as boosters.

  • It's actually not, um, you have to really have to redesign, um, almost everything except the upper stage in order to take the increased loads.

  • Um, so Falcon heavy ended up being much more a new vehicle than we realized.

  • So it took us longer to get it done, but But the boosters have all now been tested and they're on their way to the Cape Canaveral.

  • And we are now beginning serious development of be afar.

  • So you can see that the payload difference is quite dramatic.

  • Um, be a far in, uh, fully reusable configuration without any oval refueling.

  • We expect to have a paler capability of 100 and 50 tons to look over.

  • And that compares to about 34 4 Falcon heavy.

  • We were just pasta, partially reusable, where this really makes a tremendous difference, isn't it cost which I'll come since on the latest slides?

  • Um, so let's go to the next line.

  • And just by the way, if yeah, so with, um be a far you could get a sense of scale by looking at the tiny person there.

  • Um, it's really quite quite a big vehicle.

  • Main body diameter is about is about nine meters or 30 feet, and it consists of the booster is lifted by 31 rafter engines that produced trust about 5400 tons, lifting 40 4400 ton vehicle straight up.

  • So then, just the basics about the ship 48 meter length dry master expecting to be about 85 tons.

  • Technically, design says 75 tons.

  • But inevitably, this mass growth, Um, and that ship will contain 1100 tons per pallet with a design sent design of 150 tones and return mass of 50.

  • You think of this as essentially combining the upper stage of the rocket with dragon.

  • It's like you felt benign up a stage and dragon were combined.

  • So as we are going to use these IRS in detail, But, uh, you've got us the engine section in the rear.

  • Ah, the propellant tanks in the middle, Uh, and then a large payload bay in the front.

  • And that payload based actually eight stories tall.

  • In fact, your foot you can fit a whole stack of felt when rockets in the payload bay.

  • Um, compared to design a short last time, you'll see that there is a small delta wing at the back of the rocket.

  • The reason for that is in order to expand the mission envelope off the of the spaceship.

  • Um, depending on whether you're landing or you're coming, you're entering a planet or a moon that has no atmosphere, a thin atmosphere or a dense atmosphere, and depend on whether you have you're re entering with no, no payload in the front, a small payload or a heavy payload.

  • You have to balance the rocket out as it's coming in.

  • And so the Delta Wing at the back, which which also includes a sport flap, split flaps for pitch and roll control, allows us to control the pitch angle.

  • Ah, despite having a wide range of payloads in the nose and a wide range of atmospheric densities, So what we try to avoid having with the Delta Wing.

  • But, um, it was necessary in order to generalized the capability of the spaceship such that it could land anywhere in the solar system.

  • Just look at a couple of things in detail.

  • So the the the cargo area has a pressurized volume of 825 cubic meters.

  • Um, this also is greater than the pressurized area off a 3 80 So, um, really is capable of carrying a tremendous amount of payload moss transit configuration since you'll be taking, uh, three months in a really good scenario, but maybe as much as six months?

  • Um, some number of months sing legit months.

  • You really want a cabin not just a seat.

  • So the Morris tries it configuration just of 40 cabins, and it's one of the pans on you could conceive it.

  • We have five or six people per cabin if you really want to trap people in.

  • Um, but I think mostly I would expect to see 2 to 3 people per cabin.

  • Um, and so normally, about 100 people per flight to Mars.

  • And then this is central storage area galley on galley and a solar storm shelter, um, entertainment area.

  • And, um, I think probably you know, a good situation for at least your father.

  • Version one, then going to the main body of the vehicle, the center body area.

  • Uh, this is where the propellant is located.

  • Um, and this is, uh, sub cooled methane and oxygen.

  • So as you as you killed the methane and auction below, it's like a point.

  • You get fairly meaningful density increase, you get on the order of 10 to 12% density increased, which makes quite a big difference for felt load.

  • You expect us to do carry two or 40 tons of ch for and enter 60 tons of auction.

  • Um, the in the fuel tank.

  • Our header tanks.

  • So when you come in for a landing, your orientation may change quite significantly, but you can't have the propellant to sloshing around a liver.

  • In main tanks, you have to have the header tanks that can feed the main engines with precision.

  • So that's what you see the most in the A fuel tank, then the engine section.

  • So the the the ship engine section consists of of four rafter forced four vacuum wrecked referendums and to sea level engines, so the all six engines are cable of gambling.

  • The engines with the high expansion ratio have a relatively smaller gimbal area, but given range and a slower and slower able rate, the the two center engines.

  • I have a very high gimbal range and convertible very quickly, and you can land the ship with either one of the two center engines.

  • So when you come in for a landing, it will like both engines.

  • But if if one of the center engines fails at any point, it will be able to land successfully with with the other engine on, then within each engine, this ritual of redundancy, Um, so what?

  • The landing risk to be as close, serious possible.

  • Um, and that's the basic stats about the engines.

  • The sea level engines about 3 30 I species at that level, the upper stage engine 3 75 You know, this is version one.

  • So I think over time, this potential to increase that specific impulse, buy 5 to 10 seconds and as this mission also increase the chamber pressure by 50 bar or so and then for refilling.

  • We're just so the two the two shifts would actually make at the rear section.

  • Um, they would use the same mating in the face that they used to connect to the booster on little so weird.

  • Reuse that meeting in her face and then and reuse the propellant.

  • Full lions that are used when the booster is what?

  • When the ship is on the booster and then to transfer propellant, it becomes very simple.

  • Use control thrusters to accelerate in the direction, um, that you want to empty.

  • So if sorry, in this direction, peril profound goes that way and you transfer the propellant very easily into from the from the tanker to the ship, they're going to rocket capability.

  • This gives you sort of a rough sense of rocket capability, starting off at the Learned with the Falcon one at 1/2 ton.

  • I think going up to be a far at 100 50.

  • So I think it's important to note that be far has more carefully than 75 even with full reusability.

  • But but here's the really it's really important.

  • Fundamental point.

  • Let's look at the launch cost the order.

  • The order reverses.

  • And you know, at first glance, this may seem ridiculous, but that is not the the same is true of aircraft if you want to.

  • If you report say aye, a small single engine turboprop aircraft that would be 1.5 to $2 million Um, to charter a 7 47 from California to Australia.

  • It's half a $1,000,000 there and back.

  • The single engine turboprop can't even get to Australia.

  • Um, so a fully reusable system like for a reasonable giant aircraft like 7 47 costs 1/3 as much as an expendable tiny aircraft.

  • In one case, you have to build an attack aircraft in case just have to refuel something.

  • So it's it's really crazy that we will be sophisticated rockets and then crash them every time we fly.

  • This is Matt.

  • So, um yeah, is that this is this is it says how profound this is and how important res body is.

  • Um and often I'll be told, but you could get more payload if you made it expendable.

  • I said yes.

  • You could also get more payload from an aircraft if you go to the landing gear and the flaps and just parachuted out when you got to your destination.

  • But that would be crazy, and you would sell zero aircraft.

  • Um, sarees abilities absolutely fundamental.

  • No, no, no one talked about the value of orbital refilling.

  • It's also extremely important.

  • So if you just fly be a fart two orbits and don't do any refilling, it's pretty good.

  • You'll get 150 tons sloth orbit and have no and have no fuel to go anywhere else.

  • However, if you send up tankers and refill in orbit, you can refill the tanks all the way to the top and get 100 50 tons old way to Mars.

  • And if the tanker has hi, were you scared body that you're just paying for the cost of propellant and the cost of oxygen is extremely low in the costumes of of methane is extremely low.

  • So if that's all you're dealing with, the cost of return of refilling your spaceship in orbit, it is his heinie.

  • And you can get 150 tons.

  • Well, way to Mars.

  • So automated rendezvous and docking and refilling absolutely fundamental.

  • So then getting back to the question of how do we pay for for this system?

  • Um, this is really that's quite a profound, um, uncle, A breakthrough but realization that if we can build a system that, um, cannibalizes our own products makes our own products redundant, then all of the resource is which quite enormous that I used to fell to nine.

  • Heavy and dragon can be applied to one system.

  • Um, you know some of our customers conservative and they want to see the They want to see your firefly several times before they're comfortable launching its.

  • What we plan to do is to build ahead and have a stock of Falcon nine and dragon vehicles, so so that customers could be comfortable if they want to use the old the old rocket.

  • The old spacecraft that could do that because we'll have a bunch of stock.

  • But all of our resources will then turn towards building beer Far.

  • And we believe that we can do this with the revenue that we with with with the revenue we received for launching satellites, um, and for servicing the space station.

  • Um, we're going to the satellites portion.

  • The the size of this being a nine meter diameter vehicle is a huge neighbor for new satellites.

  • We can actually send something.

  • Uh, that is almost nine meters in diameter, uh, to orbit.

  • So, for example, if you went to a new Hubble, you could send a murder that has 10 times the surface area of the current Hubble as a single unit doesn't have to unfold or anything.

  • And, um or are you content a life number of small satellites and do what you like?

  • You can actually also around.

  • And if you wanted to collect old satellites or clean up space debris, you just use the sort of trump over there, um, and go around and collect, uh, collect satellites.

  • Collectspace degree if you want.

  • Um, so that means that maybe something we have to do in the future.

  • Um, but that that fairy would open up and retract and then come back down.

  • So it's It enables launching of earth satellites that are significant larger than anything we've done before, or simply more satellites at a time than anything that's been done before.

  • It's also intended to service the space station.

  • Yeah, I know it looks a little big, bro to the space station.

  • Um, but that the shuttle also looked big.

  • Um, so it'll work looks a little outsized, but it'll work.

  • Um, so it's it will be capable of of doing what dragon does today in terms of transporting cargo.

  • And what Dragon two will do it transporting crew and cargo.

  • So do the space station servicing.

  • Um, it can also go up so much further than that.

  • Like, for example, um, basic calculations were done, but we actually do lunar surface missions with no propound production on the sister moon.

  • So if we do ah, hi.

  • Elliptic parking over it.

  • For for the ship and re tank in high elliptical orbit, we could go away to the moon and back with no local propelled production on the moon.

  • So I think that enabled that would enable the creation off Moonbase Alpha or some sort of lunar base.

  • Um, you know, captivating.

  • So they, um it goes to sea.

  • For example, How how how do you transfer cargo from the cargo bay?

  • Down to the ground is a crane over complicated.

  • Um and, um yeah, but But since this will enable the creation of a lunar base, it's 2017.

  • I mean, we should have a lunar base by now.

  • What the hell's going on?

  • Um, and their course Mars becoming a multi planet species used to help out of being a single plant species.

  • So, um, yes, it would start off by setting commission to to Mars.

  • Where would be over just landing on rocky ground or dusty ground?

  • Um, it's the same approach that I mentioned before, which is you send the spaceship upto over it, you re tank it, refill it until it as full tanks, um, and um travels tomorrow's lands on Mars for miles.

  • You will need local propellant production, but Mars has ASIO to atmosphere and plenty of water ice that gives you go to H 20 So you've got you can make therefore siege for an 02 um, using these about here, process on or something voice, My dear process on, Um, I should mention that long term.

  • This can also be done on earth so soon as I get some sort of, um, Chris isn't full.

  • Why?

  • Why?

  • Using combustion and rockets and you have electric cars like well, isn't some way to make an electric rocket?

  • I wish there was, Um, but in the long term, you can use solar power tea extracts the 02 from the atmosphere, combine it with water and produce fuel and oxygen for the rocket.

  • So the same thing that we're doing Mars we could do on Earth in the long term.

  • But that's essentially what happens similar to to the moon.

  • You land land on Mars that the tricky thing with Mars is we do need to build a propellant depot to refill the tanks and return to us.

  • But because Mars has a low gravity than earth, you can do not need a booster go all the way from the surface of Mars surface of earth.

  • Just using the ship, albeit you need to go for it to Max.

  • Payload number.

  • About 2022 50 tons for the return journey to work.

  • But it's a single state or a single stage all the way back to us.

  • I'll show you the so this is the truth.

  • Physics simulation.

  • Um, what's the last?

  • About a minute.

  • So you come in, you're entering very quickly, going 70 kilometers a second for miles.

  • There won't be some ablation of the heat shield, so it's just like a sort of brake pad wearing away.

  • Um, it is a multi use heat shield, but unlike Earth operations, it's coming in hot enough that you really do.

  • You will see somewhere of the heat shield, but because Mars has and that was to be a, albeit not a particularly dense one, you can remove almost all the energy aerodynamically on re proven out supersonic retro propulsion many times with with Falcon nine so full recount all about that, that this is a because it's a um, you could see it sort of a match.

  • This, and it's not.

  • It's not meant to be sort of particularly pretty because it's just trying to simulate the physics of it.

  • But the size of the current gives you a rough approximation for how much thrust the entrance of producing.

  • That's not a type of, although it is aspiration.

  • Um, so we've already started building the system.

  • Um, the tooling for the main tanks is has been ordered.

  • The facility is being built.

  • We'll start construction of the first ship, um, around the second quarter of next year's in about 6 to 9 months, which to start building the first ship.

  • I feel, um, fairly confident that we can complete the ship and be ready for launch in about five years.

  • Five years seems like a long time to me.

  • Uh, and I the the area under the curve of resource is over.

  • That period of time should enable this time you met.

  • But if not this time frame, I think pretty soon thereafter.

  • But that's that's our that's our goal is to try to make the 2022 Mars rover.

  • Um, the, uh, birth mas synchronization happens roughly every two years.

  • So every two years, there's a an opportunity for, um, have to fly to Mars.

  • So then, in 2024 we want to try to fly four ships, two of which would be crude and to which to cover and two to crew.

  • The goal of of the of these initial missions is to find the best source of water.

  • That's what the first mission.

  • And in the second mission, the goal is to build the propellant plant.

  • So we should with particular.

  • With six ships, there have plenty of landed mass to construct the propellant depot, which will consist of a large array of solar panels, their luxury and then everything that starts in mine and refined water, and then draw this year two of the atmosphere on and create and store deep, cryo, ch born or two.

  • Then build up the base starting with 11 ship than multiple ships.

  • Then stop holding out the city, then making city bigger, bigger.

  • And, um yeah, and over time, terra forming waas on making it really a nice place to be.

  • Thanks for this.

  • Quite a beautiful picture and the price.

  • I seriously doubt that on Mars Dorner desk are blue and it's Scott.

  • That's the sky is blue and orange dust and and red during the day.

  • It's the opposite of Earth on, um, But this, uh, there's something else, um, if you if you build a ship that's capable of going to Mars.

  • What if you take that same ship and go from one place to another on Earth?

  • So we looked at that and the results are quite interesting.

  • Let's take a look at that.

  • Probably 27,000 kilometres an hour, roughly 18,000 miles an hour, where the propulsive landing becomes very important.

  • You guessed it right.

  • Most of what people consider to be long distance trips.

  • I would be completed in less than half a hour, which Yes.

  • So the great thing about going to space is there's no friction.

  • So once you're out of the atmosphere, you will go smooth as silk.

  • No turbulence, nothing.

  • There's no weather.

  • So here, and you can get tow tow.

  • Most long distance places, like said in less than half an hour.

  • Um, and if we're pulling this thing to go to the moon and Mars, then why not go to other places on Earth as well?

  • Right.

  • Thank you.

It's a pleasure for me, as president of the International Astronomical Federation, to welcome all you today to the concluding session off the global networking for rum for the C 2017 which has bean years access in particular.

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讓生命多星化 (Making Life Multiplanetary)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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