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  • This video is sponsored by Brilliant!

    本視頻由Brilliant贊助!

  • The first 200 to use the link in the description get 20% off the annual subscription.

    前200名使用描述中的鏈接可獲得年度訂閱的8折優惠。

  • 2018 was a rollercoaster year for Apple.

    2018年對於蘋果來說是雲霄飛車般的一年。

  • In August, its stock hit two-hundred and seven dollars, making it the first trillion dollar

    8月,其股價創下貳零壹柒美元,成為首個萬億美元的

  • company in history.

    公司在歷史上。

  • Then, in a dramatic few months, it lost $450 billion as Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet

    然後,在戲劇性的幾個月裡,它損失了4500億美元,因為微軟、亞馬遜和Alphabet

  • passed it by.

    通過它。

  • And for the first time in fifteen years, the company announced it would make less money

    而十五年來,公司首次宣佈將少賺點錢。

  • than expected.

    比預期的要好。

  • The problem?

    問題是什麼?

  • Fewer people buying iPhones.

    買iPhone的人越來越少。

  • The reasons are many: China's slowing economy, sticker shock, market saturation.

    原因是多方面的。中國經濟放緩,貼紙衝擊,市場飽和。

  • But there's also another big factor: Apple has a new competitor.

    但還有一個重要因素。蘋果有了一個新的競爭對手。

  • Not Samsung.

    不是三星。

  • Not Google.

    不是谷歌。

  • Not Huawei.

    不是華為。

  • Apple!

    ...蘋果!

  • The iPhone is increasingly competing with itself.

    iPhone與自己的競爭越來越激烈。

  • One, because we're all holding on to them longer.

    一,因為我們都在堅持較長時間。

  • But also because it doesn't cost what you think it does.

    但也因為它的成本並不是你想的那樣。

  • As the price of an iPhone goes up, something new is happening to its value, and it's

    隨著iPhone價格的上漲,它的價值也發生了新的變化,這就是

  • shaking up Apple's entire business model.

    動搖了蘋果的整個商業模式。

  • To understand what's really going on, we need to calculate the actual, hidden price

    為了瞭解真實情況,我們需要計算實際的、隱藏的價格。

  • of the iPhone.

    的iPhone。

  • Generally speaking, there are two ways you can get rich selling things to people:

    一般來說,向人推銷東西有兩種方式可以致富。

  • One, you can play the numbers game - Sell a gazillion small things for a few cents profit

    一、你可以玩數字遊戲--賣出無數小東西,獲得幾毛錢的利潤。

  • each.

    每個人。

  • Think: Gas stations, grocery stores, and, on a good day, Amazon.

    想想看:加油站、雜貨店,還有,在好的一天,亞馬遜。

  • Sure, you'll probably lose money at first, but sell a few more and now you have the power

    當然,一開始你可能會賠錢,但多賣幾個,現在你就有能力了。

  • of scale.

    的規模。

  • Lower costs, higher margins.

    降低成本,提高利潤。

  • Look at you!

    看看你!

  • Or, you can sell a few really expensive things.

    或者,你可以賣掉一些很貴的東西。

  • Ever wondered why your town has like three mattress stores for every one person?

    你有沒有想過為什麼你的城市每一個人就有三家床墊店?

  • They're always empty and yet somehow still keep the lights on.

    它們總是空空如也,卻不知為何還能保持燈火通明。

  • Well, that's because a few feet of foam doesn't cost thousands, or even hundreds,

    嗯,那是因為幾英尺的保麗龍不需要幾千,甚至幾百。

  • of dollars.

    的美元。

  • 50, 60, 90 percent of a mattress is pure, king-sized profit.

    一張床墊的50%、60%、90%是純利潤,特大號的利潤。

  • It only takes a few sales a month to stay in business.

    一個月只要賣出幾單,就能維持生意。

  • And, therefore, disruption.

    也是以,中斷。

  • But a few companies, the really, really successful ones, manage to do both.

    但有少數公司,真正的,真正成功的公司,能做到這兩點。

  • If you can make hundreds of dollars on each item, sell it thousands of times an hour,

    如果每件商品能賺幾百元,一小時就能賣出上千次。

  • and convince those same people to buy again in 12 months, AND make us want to line up

    並說服這些人在12個月內再次購買,並使我們想排隊。

  • with a smile on our face for the privilege of doing it, well, now you have a $265 billion

    臉上帶著微笑的特權,好吧,現在你有一個2650億美元的

  • a year business.

    一年的業務。

  • The iPhone is, arguably, the most successful subscription service in history.

    可以說,iPhone是歷史上最成功的訂閱服務。

  • You can bet Apple will announce a new model, or three, every September, like clockwork,

    你可以打賭,蘋果每年9月都會像鐘錶一樣宣佈一款新機型,或者三款。

  • just as surely as you know they'll name it something weird.

    就像你知道他們會給它起個奇怪的名字一樣。

  • The problem is, technology is getting really good.

    問題是,技術真的越來越好了。

  • So good that a lot of people are thinkingWhy do I need a new one?”

    這麼好的東西,很多人都在想 "我為什麼要買新的?"

  • Some of us care about Portrait Mode and dual optical image stabilization, but, for most

    我們中的一些人關心人像模式和雙光學圖像防抖,但是,對於大多數人來說,我們都會關心人像模式和雙光學圖像防抖。

  • people, checking Twitter and using WeChat is the same on the Phone XS as the X, and

    人,在Phone XS上查看微博和使用微信和X一樣,而且。

  • 8, and 7.

    8,和7。

  • You're invited to the blue bubble club regardless.

    不管怎麼樣,你都會被邀請到藍泡泡俱樂部。

  • According to analysts, the average person waited three years to upgrade their smartphone

    根據分析師的數據,平均每個人都要等三年才能升級智能手機。

  • in twenty eighteen.

    在二十八歲的時候。

  • This year: four.

    今年:四個。

  • Of course, phones are a little bit weird in this respect because so are humans.

    當然,手機在這方面有點奇怪,因為人也是如此。

  • The iPhone isn't just a tool, it's a status symbol.

    iPhone不僅僅是一個工具,更是一種身份的象徵。

  • According to researchers at the University of Chicago, the best predictors of wealth

    根據芝加哥大學的研究人員,財富的最佳預測因素

  • in 1992 were: owning an automatic dishwasher, a fireplace, and oooh, a garage door opener.

    在1992年的時候,擁有一臺自動洗碗機,一個壁爐,還有哦,一個車庫門開啟器。

  • Hi-tech!

    高科技!

  • Today, it's owning a passport, an iPhone, and iPad, which have a 70% chance of correctly

    如今,擁有一本護照、一部iPhone和iPad,這三者的正確率達到70%。

  • guessing whether you have a high income.

    猜測你是否有高收入。

  • Owning the newest model signals you have a grand of disposable income to spend every

    擁有最新的車型,標誌著你有一千多萬的可支配收入,可以花在每一個項目上。

  • year.

    年。

  • Add some AirPods and you won't even hear the sound of the money leaving your bank account.

    加上一些AirPods,你甚至不會聽到錢離開銀行賬戶的聲音。

  • But that only works if this year's iPhone looks different from last, and Apple only

    但這隻有在今年的iPhone外觀與去年不同的情況下才行得通,蘋果只有

  • really changes its design every other year.

    真的是每隔一年就換一次設計。

  • So, here we are.

    所以,我們在這裡。

  • People are losing their appetite for frequent upgrades, but Apple certainly hasn't lost

    人們正在失去頻繁升級的胃口,但蘋果當然沒有失去

  • its appetite for money.

    其對金錢的胃口。

  • Which means, of course, higher prices!

    這就意味著,當然,價格會更高!

  • Selling half as many phones isn't such a problem if they're all twice as expensive.

    如果手機的價格都是原來的兩倍,那麼賣一半的手機也不是這樣的問題。

  • The cheaper iPhone has slowly crept from $649, to 699, to 749, today.

    更加便宜的iPhone從649美元,到699美元,再到今天的749美元,慢慢爬上。

  • The more expensive XS now starts at nine ninety-nine and goes all the way up to $1,449.

    現在更貴的XS的起價是九十九元,一直到1449元。

  • Of course, that's only if you're lucky enough to live in the U.S.

    當然,這只是在你有幸生活在美國的情況下。

  • And yet, revenue is still down.

    然而,收入仍在下降。

  • Something's missing.

    少了點什麼

  • To make sense of this, we need to answer the question: How expensive is the iPhone, really?

    要想搞清楚這個問題,我們需要回答這個問題。iPhone到底有多貴?

  • There's plenty of back-and-forth on whether the iPhone is, quote, worth it, but what isn't

    有很多的反反覆覆的iPhone是否, 報價, 值得, 但什麼是不

  • really debated is that, in general, it's higher-priced than most other smartphones

    真正的爭論是,在一般情況下,它的價格比大多數其他智能手機更高

  • from most other brands.

    從大多數其他品牌。

  • Being selective about which price segments it sells to is pretty much written in Apple's

    有選擇地銷售給哪個價位段的產品,這在蘋果公司的產品中已經寫得差不多了。

  • DNA.

    DNA:

  • There's no $300 MacBook not because it's impossible but because that's just not what

    沒有300美元的MacBook,不是因為它不可能,而是因為這並不是

  • it's about.

    它是關於。

  • And with prices going up even higher, it would seem that's never been more true.

    而隨著物價的進一步上漲,這似乎是再正確不過的了。

  • But sticker price isn't the best way to measure actual cost.

    但貼牌價並不是衡量實際成本的最好方法。

  • In fact, it's pretty misleading.

    其實,這是很誤導人的。

  • Phones aren't consumable.

    手機不是消耗品。

  • Unless you pull a Black Mirror, they're still worth something in a year or two.

    除非你拉個黑鏡,否則一兩年後他們還是很值錢的。

  • The price of something like a house accounts for how much it's expected to gain or lose

    房子這種東西的價格佔了它的預期收益或損失的多少。

  • in value.

    價值。

  • Usually, the structure itself depreciates - styles change and wood rots, but the land

    通常情況下,結構本身會貶值--風格會改變,木頭會腐爛,但土地卻會貶值

  • underneath it appreciates.

    下它欣賞。

  • Which, side note, is why tiny houses aren't investments.

    這也從側面說明了為什麼小房子不是投資。

  • The land they sit on is often leased, not owned, and therefore, it only loses value.

    他們所坐的土地往往是租賃的,而不是擁有的,是以,它只會失去價值。

  • Basically, you've just bought a house-shaped RV!

    基本上,你剛剛買了一輛房子形狀的房車!

  • Anyway, unless your phone was signed by the ghost of Steve Jobs himself, it's more like

    總之,除非你的手機是喬布斯的鬼魂親自簽名的,否則更像是

  • a car - its value goes down.

    一輛汽車--它的價值會下降。

  • And fast.

    而且速度很快。

  • But not all phones are the same.

    但並不是所有的手機都一樣。

  • On average, iPhones lose 45% of their value in the first 12 months.

    平均而言,iPhone在前12個月內損失了45%的價值。

  • Samsung phones, 62%.

    三星手機,62%。

  • and Google, 81.

    和谷歌,81。

  • That may sound a little unfair - Apple only makes premium devices, while Samsung's average

    這聽起來可能有點不公平--蘋果只生產高端設備,而三星的普通

  • might be skewed by a few low-end outliers.

    可能會被一些低端的異常值所扭曲。

  • So, let's look at specific models.

    那麼,我們來看看具體的車型。

  • A year later, the Samsung S8 lost 58% of its value.

    一年後,三星S8損失了58%的價值。

  • The Google Pixel XL, 82, and the OnePlus One 94%.

    谷歌Pixel XL,82%,OnePlus One 94%。

  • Meanwhile, the iPhone 8 still lost only 45.

    同時,iPhone8仍然只損失了45。

  • That's a difference of hundreds of dollars.

    那是幾百元的差別。

  • And that's before the record-setting iPhone X.

    而這還是在創紀錄的iPhone X之前。

  • In September 2018, only a week before the XS was set to be announced, the X was still

    2018年9月,就在XS即將公佈的前一週,X還在。

  • worth $679.

    價值679美元。

  • It lost only 32% of its value.

    它只損失了32%的價值。

  • Taking this into account, we can calculate a rough Total Cost of Ownership.

    考慮到這一點,我們可以計算出一個大致的總擁有成本。

  • A thousand dollars upfront, minus 679 for selling it a year later, gives us a real cost

    先付一千塊錢,減去一年後賣掉的679塊錢,我們的實際成本是多少?

  • of $320.

    320美元。

  • That's $26 a month to always have the latest and greatest.

    每月26元,可以永遠擁有最新最好的東西。

  • Now, to be fair, sticker price does matter.

    現在,為了公平起見,貼紙價格確實很重要。

  • If next year's iPhone cost $20,000, and sells 12 months later for $19,900, it would

    如果明年的iPhone成本為20000美元,12個月後以19900美元的價格出售,那麼它將

  • be a bit disingenuous to call it a $100 phone.

    稱之為100元的手機是有點虛偽的。

  • But, of course, resale value is still very important.

    不過,當然,轉售價值還是非常重要的。

  • And here's why: Because used iPhones are now worth more, more people are selling them.

    這就是原因。因為二手iPhone現在更值錢了,更多的人在出售它們。

  • Higher supply.

    供應量較大。

  • Meanwhile, more people want the new design but don't necessarily want to spend a whole

    同時,更多的人想要新的設計,但不一定要花整個

  • month's rent.

    月的租金。

  • Higher demand.

    需求量較大。

  • The result: a huge, thriving, secondary market.

    結果是:一個巨大的、繁榮的二級市場。

  • Amazon and eBay are flooded with iPhone X's.

    亞馬遜和eBay都充斥著iPhone X。

  • Which means the new phone has to compete with its still-pretty-good last generation.

    這意味著新手機要和它還算不錯的上一代產品競爭。

  • In other words, Apple is, increasingly, competing with itself.

    換句話說,蘋果公司正在,越來越多地與自己競爭。

  • And the better today's iPhone, the harder it'll be to compete against, used, next

    而如今的iPhone越好,就越難與之競爭,二手的,下一個。

  • year.

    年。

  • Now, if you're an investor, this all sounds pretty bad.

    現在,如果你是一個投資者,這一切聽起來很糟糕。

  • Like, sound-the-alarms bad.

    就像,聲音警報壞。

  • Remember, the iPhone alone accounts for 60% its revenue.

    請記住,僅iPhone就佔其收入的60%。

  • Any other company would fight this tooth and nail.

    任何其他公司都會與之抗衡。

  • So, what's Apple doing?

    那麼,蘋果在做什麼呢?

  • Not only are they not fighting it, they're actually embracing it, making the iPhone last

    他們不僅沒有反抗,實際上還在擁抱它,讓iPhone持續發展。

  • even longer.

    只是時間長一點。

  • Instead of buying a whole new phone because you can't get 3 hours on a charge, they've

    與其因為一次充電不能達到3個小時而買一部全新的手機,不如說他們已經。

  • made it easier than ever to just replace the battery.

    使得更換電池比以往任何時候都要容易。

  • And while Android phones often receive only two years of software updates, iOS 12 runs

    而安卓手機往往只收到兩年的軟件更新,而iOS 12運行的是

  • on all these devices, going all the way back to the 2013 iPhone 5s and the first iPad Air.

    在所有這些設備上,一直到2013年的iPhone 5s和第一款iPad Air。

  • Even better, it actually speeds up your phone, it's no longer a tradeoff of slow-as-molasses

    更好的是,它實際上加快了你的手機速度,它不再是慢得像糖漿一樣的權衡。

  • for new features.

    為新功能。

  • Or, let's be real, pressingUpdateso it'll stop bothering you.

    或者,讓我們現實一點,按 "更新",這樣它就不會再打擾你了。

  • All of this is awesome for you and I, but isn't it a terrible business idea?

    這些對你我來說都是很厲害的,但這是不是一個很糟糕的商業想法?

  • Not necessarily.

    不一定。

  • Unless you buy from Apple.com, second-hand phones don't directly put any money in its

    除非你從蘋果網購買,否則二手手機不會直接投入任何資金,其

  • pockets, but Apple has other ways of making a profit.

    兜,但蘋果還有其他盈利方式。

  • New or used, you still buy apps, You still subscribe to Apple Music, Apple Video, iCloud,

    不管是新的還是二手的,你還是會購買應用,你還是會訂閱蘋果音樂、蘋果視頻、iCloud。

  • and so on.

    諸如此類。

  • The iPhone is a gateway to things like the iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods.

    iPhone是iPad、Apple Watch和AirPods等東西的入口。

  • Even if you buy none of these things, you're still useful to Apple.

    即使你不買這些東西,你對蘋果也是有用的。

  • Google, for example, pays an estimated $9 billion a year just to be your default search

    例如,谷歌,估計每年支付90億美元,只是為了成為你的默認搜索。

  • engine.

    發動機。

  • Nine BILLION.

    九個億。

  • That's the GDP of Haiti for one switch to be flipped.

    這就是海地的GDP,只要打開一個開關就可以了。

  • User base means control and control, ultimately, means money.

    用戶群意味著控制力,而控制力,最終意味著金錢。

  • In other words, things like services can make up for lost sales.

    換句話說,服務這種東西可以彌補銷售的損失。

  • It's sort-of the in-app purchase model applied to the iPhone as a whole.

    這算是應用內購買模式應用到整個iPhone上。

  • In the long term, Apple needs to move its focus away from the iPhone and towards new

    從長遠來看,蘋果需要將重心從iPhone轉移到新。

  • platforms entirely.

    平臺完全。

  • Augmented reality glasses are the future.

    增強現實眼鏡是未來的發展趨勢。

  • As we saw in 2018, this transition won't be easy.

    正如我們在2018年看到的那樣,這種轉型並不容易。

  • But it's the best, and really only path forward.

    但這是最好的,也是真正唯一的前進之路。

  • Because, the truth is, what's happening now is normal.

    因為,事實上,現在發生的一切都很正常。

  • Everything before was an anomaly.

    之前的一切都很反常。

  • A very profitable one.

    一個很賺錢的。

  • An easy one for companies to get used to.

    對於企業來說,很容易習慣。

  • But, still, an anomaly.

    但是,還是很不正常。

  • From 2007 until fairly recently, the stars were perfectly aligned - technology was moving

    從2007年到最近,星辰完美地排列在一起--技術在不斷髮展。

  • incredibly quickly but still always left enough to be desired for next year.

    不可思議的快,但明年還是總能留下足夠的期待。

  • The smartphone was in its growth period.

    智能手機正處於成長期。

  • But the average people buying a new phone every year or two just isn't sustainable.

    但一般人每隔一兩年就買一部新手機,是不可持續的。

  • Not economically.

    在經濟上沒有。

  • And not environmentally.

    而不是環境。

  • Phones should last years and years, go through two or even three owners, and then, gracefully,

    手機應該能用好幾年,經歷兩個甚至三個主人,然後,優雅地。

  • be recycled.

    被回收。

  • The future is one where a few of us buy the latest phone, take good care of it, and then

    未來是我們幾個人買了最新的手機,好好保養,然後

  • give it back to Apple, or sell it second-hand.

    把它還給蘋果,或者賣給二手。

  • The problem is, selling your phone is, kinda the worst.

    問題是,賣手機是,挺慘的。

  • How do you know when to sell?

    如何知道什麼時候賣?

  • And for how much?

    多少錢?

  • So it ends up just sitting in a drawer somewhere.

    所以最後只是放在某個抽屜裡。

  • Dave, over on Here's the Bad Version has an idea for a solution: An app.

    戴夫,在 "壞版本 "上有一個解決方案的想法。一個應用程序。

  • You'd scan your phone when you buy it, tell it how often you wanna upgrade, and then it

    你在買手機的時候就會掃描手機,告訴它你想升級的頻率,然後它就會

  • sends you a notification when it's the best time to sell.

    當賣出的最佳時機到來時,會向您發出通知。

  • I'm 100% serious when I say I think this could be a multi-million dollar startup, someone

    我100%的認真,當我說我認為這可能是一個數百萬美元的創業公司,有人。

  • just needs to program it.

    只是需要編程。

  • You could design the app to make predictions about how the value of your phone might change

    你可以設計這個應用來預測你的手機價值可能會發生的變化

  • in the future, for example, with the machine learning course on Brilliant, which teaches

    在未來,例如,在Brilliant上的機器學習課程,教授

  • you, step by step, intuitively, with its computer science and math courses.

    你,一步步地,直觀地,其計算機科學和數學課程。

  • Their Computer Science Algorithms course will teach you the concepts behind how you might

    他們的計算機科學算法課程將教給你如何在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可能的情況下,在你可

  • design the app to scan the iPhone's barcode and then generate an eBay listing when the

    設計的應用,掃描iPhone的條碼,然後生成eBay列表,當。

  • user is ready.

    用戶已經準備好了。

  • In my programming classes, I noticed that I learned a lot faster when I was actually

    在我的編程課上,我注意到,當我實際學習時,我學得更快。

  • making something versus when I was just studying arbitrarily.

    做出一些東西與我只是任意學習的時候。

  • Plus, it's just more fun to make something.

    另外,做東西也比較有趣。

  • Brilliant thinks the same way - instead ofHere's this new concept, now just store

    輝煌也是這樣想的--而不是 "這裡有這個新的概念,現在只需要存

  • it in the back of your head”, its Daily Problems give you a real, interesting problem

    它在你的腦海裡",它的每日問題給你一個真正的,有趣的問題。

  • to solve using your new skills.

    用你的新技能來解決。

  • Use the link in the description to sign up for free and get started today.

    使用描述中的鏈接免費註冊,今天就開始。

  • The first 200 people to do so will also get 20% off the annual premium subscription so

    前200人還將獲得年度高級訂閱的8折優惠,所以。

  • you can view all the Daily Problems and take all their problem-solving courses.

    你可以查看所有的日常問題,並參加他們所有的問題解決課程。

  • And after you sign up, don't forget to go watch Dave's video.

    註冊後,別忘了去看戴夫的視頻。

This video is sponsored by Brilliant!

本視頻由Brilliant贊助!

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 iphone 手機 情況 蘋果 美元 價值

iPhone的真正的成本 (The True Cost of the iPhone)

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    shoushou 發佈於 2019 年 09 月 24 日
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