you know, like that guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian."

我是個天體動力學家，

And it's my job to study and predict motion of objects in space.

就像電影《絕地救援》中的 李察·普奈爾。

Currently we track about one percent of hazardous objects on orbit --

我研究和預測物體在太空中的運動。

hazardous to services like location,

目前我們追蹤大約 1％ 在軌道上的危險物體，

agriculture, banking,

它們會危害衛星定位、

television and communications,

農業、銀行、

and soon -- very soon --

電視和通信等服務，

even the internet itself.

很快也會危害到網際網路本身。

Now these services are not protected from, roughly, half a million objects

這些服務也許會 被大約五十萬種物品危害，

the size of a speck of paint

這些東西的大小可能從一滴油漆

all the way to a school bus in size.

到一台校車。

A speck of paint,

如果一點漆的行進速度恰好，

traveling at the right speed,

它撞上其中的任一物體

impacting one of these objects,

都可能令其作廢。

could render it absolutely useless.

但我們無法追蹤 像油漆這樣小的東西，

But we can't track things as small as a speck of paint.

只能追蹤像智慧手機 這樣大小的東西。

We can only track things as small as say, a smartphone.

因此在應該注意的五十萬個對象中，

So of this half million objects that we should be concerned about,

我們只能追蹤其中大約兩萬六千個，

we can only track about 26,000 of these objects.

而這兩萬六千個當中 只有兩千個仍有作用。

And of these 26,000, only 2,000 actually work.

其他一切都是垃圾。

Everything else

很多垃圾。

is garbage.

更糟的是

That's a lot of garbage.

我們射上軌道的大部分東西

To make things a little bit worse,

不會回地球。

most of what we launch into orbit never comes back.

我們將衛星送入軌道，

We send the satellite in orbit,

它壞了或燃料耗盡了，

it stops working, it runs out of fuel,

我們就發射其他的......

and we send something else up ...

再發射其他的......

and then we send up something else ...

又再發射其他的。

and then something else.

每隔一段時間，

And every once in a while,

有些可能會相撞

two of these things will collide with each other

或爆炸；

or one of these things will explode,

甚至更糟糕的是

or even worse,

軌道上的衛星被人摧毀，

somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites on orbit,

產生更多的碎片，

and this generates many, many more pieces,

大部分永遠不會回到地面上。

most of which also never come back.

這些東西不僅隨機散落在軌道中；

Now these things are not just randomly scattered in orbit.

根據時空的曲率，

It turns out that given the curvature of space-time,

存在著一些放置衛星的理想位置，

there are ideal locations

可將其視為太空公路。

where we put some of these satellites --

這些太空公路非常像 地球上的高速公路，

think of these as space highways.

它們佔用最大的交通容量

Very much like highways on earth,

以安全地維持太空營運。

these space highways can only take up a maximum capacity of traffic

但它與地球上的高速公路不同，

to sustain space-safe operations.

它們沒有實際的太空交通規則。

Unlike highways on earth,

沒有，知道嗎？

there are actually no space traffic rules.

哇。

None whatsoever, OK?

能出什麼差錯呢？

Wow.

（笑聲）

What could possibly go wrong with that?

如果我們有太空的交通地圖就很棒，

(Laughter)

就像我可以查太空版的位智（Waze），

Now, what would be really nice

看看當前的太空交通狀況，

is if we had something like a space traffic map,

甚至還可以預測交通。

like a Waze for space that I could look up

然而問題是

and see what the current traffic conditions are in space,

問五個不同的人：

maybe even predict these.

「軌道上發生了什麼事？在哪裡？」

The problem with that, however,

可能會得到十個不同的答案。

is that ask five different people,

為什麼呢？

"What's going on in orbit?

是因為軌道上物體的 相關訊息沒被共享。

Where are things going?"

那麼，如果我們有個

and you're probably going to get 10 different answers.

可供全球讀取、開放和透明的 太空交通訊息系統，

Why is that?

能夠告知公眾一切所在的位置，

It's because information about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.

得以確保太空的安全和永續發展呢？

So what if we had a globally accessible,

如果可以透過運用該系統

open and transparent space traffic information system

來建立以實證為基礎的 太空交通規則行為規範呢？

that can inform the public of where everything is located

因此，我開發了 ASTRIAGraph，

to try to keep space safe and sustainable?

這是位在德州大學奧斯汀分校，

And what if the system could be used

世上第一個以群眾外包 完成的太空交通監控系統。

to form evidence-based norms of behavior --

ASTRIAGraph 結合 來自全球各地的多種訊息來源——

these space traffic rules?

政府、工業和學術界——

So I developed ASTRIAGraph,

建在人人都可以讀取的共同框架中。

the world's first crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system

在這裡看得到圍繞地球運行的 兩萬六千個物體、

at the University of Texas at Austin.

源自多個看法，

ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around the globe --

並且近乎即時更新。

government, industry and academia --

回到我的太空交通地圖問題：

and represents this in a common framework that anybody can access today.

如果只收得到美國政府 提供的訊息會怎樣？

Here, you can see 26,000 objects orbiting the earth,

那麼，太空交通地圖就是這模樣。

multiple opinions,

俄國人的呢？

and it gets updated in near real time.

看起來迥異。

But back to my problem of space traffic map:

誰對誰錯？

What if you only had information from the US government?

我應該相信哪個？我能夠相信什麼？

Well, in that case, that's what your space traffic map would look like.

這是部分問題。

But what do the Russians think?

在欠缺監測太空行為的框架——

That looks significantly different.

無法監測太空活動 和物體所在位置——

Who's right? Who's wrong?

若沒調和這些不一致性

What should I believe?

和讓這知識觸手可及，

What could I trust?

我們真的有可能失去

This is part of the issue.

利用太空來造福人類的能力。

In the absence of this framework to monitor space-actor behavior,

非常感謝你們。

to monitor activity in space --

（掌聲）

where these objects are located --

to reconcile these inconsistencies

and make this knowledge commonplace,

we actually risk losing the ability

to use space for humanity's benefit.

Thank you very much.

(Applause and cheers)