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  • I am an astrodynamicist --

    譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Marssi Draw

  • you know, like that guy Rich Purnell in the movie "The Martian."

    我是個天體動力學家,

  • And it's my job to study and predict motion of objects in space.

    就像電影《絕地救援》中的 李察·普奈爾。

  • Currently we track about one percent of hazardous objects on orbit --

    我研究和預測物體在太空中的運動。

  • hazardous to services like location,

    目前我們追蹤大約 1% 在軌道上的危險物體,

  • agriculture, banking,

    它們會危害衛星定位、

  • television and communications,

    農業、銀行、

  • and soon -- very soon --

    電視和通信等服務,

  • even the internet itself.

    很快也會危害到網際網路本身。

  • Now these services are not protected from, roughly, half a million objects

    這些服務也許會 被大約五十萬種物品危害,

  • the size of a speck of paint

    這些東西的大小可能從一滴油漆

  • all the way to a school bus in size.

    到一台校車。

  • A speck of paint,

    如果一點漆的行進速度恰好,

  • traveling at the right speed,

    它撞上其中的任一物體

  • impacting one of these objects,

    都可能令其作廢。

  • could render it absolutely useless.

    但我們無法追蹤 像油漆這樣小的東西,

  • But we can't track things as small as a speck of paint.

    只能追蹤像智慧手機 這樣大小的東西。

  • We can only track things as small as say, a smartphone.

    因此在應該注意的五十萬個對象中,

  • So of this half million objects that we should be concerned about,

    我們只能追蹤其中大約兩萬六千個,

  • we can only track about 26,000 of these objects.

    而這兩萬六千個當中 只有兩千個仍有作用。

  • And of these 26,000, only 2,000 actually work.

    其他一切都是垃圾。

  • Everything else

    很多垃圾。

  • is garbage.

    更糟的是

  • That's a lot of garbage.

    我們射上軌道的大部分東西

  • To make things a little bit worse,

    不會回地球。

  • most of what we launch into orbit never comes back.

    我們將衛星送入軌道,

  • We send the satellite in orbit,

    它壞了或燃料耗盡了,

  • it stops working, it runs out of fuel,

    我們就發射其他的......

  • and we send something else up ...

    再發射其他的......

  • and then we send up something else ...

    又再發射其他的。

  • and then something else.

    每隔一段時間,

  • And every once in a while,

    有些可能會相撞

  • two of these things will collide with each other

    或爆炸;

  • or one of these things will explode,

    甚至更糟糕的是

  • or even worse,

    軌道上的衛星被人摧毀,

  • somebody might just happen to destroy one of their satellites on orbit,

    產生更多的碎片,

  • and this generates many, many more pieces,

    大部分永遠不會回到地面上。

  • most of which also never come back.

    這些東西不僅隨機散落在軌道中;

  • Now these things are not just randomly scattered in orbit.

    根據時空的曲率,

  • It turns out that given the curvature of space-time,

    存在著一些放置衛星的理想位置,

  • there are ideal locations

    可將其視為太空公路。

  • where we put some of these satellites --

    這些太空公路非常像 地球上的高速公路,

  • think of these as space highways.

    它們佔用最大的交通容量

  • Very much like highways on earth,

    以安全地維持太空營運。

  • these space highways can only take up a maximum capacity of traffic

    但它與地球上的高速公路不同,

  • to sustain space-safe operations.

    它們沒有實際的太空交通規則。

  • Unlike highways on earth,

    沒有,知道嗎?

  • there are actually no space traffic rules.

    哇。

  • None whatsoever, OK?

    能出什麼差錯呢?

  • Wow.

    (笑聲)

  • What could possibly go wrong with that?

    如果我們有太空的交通地圖就很棒,

  • (Laughter)

    就像我可以查太空版的位智(Waze),

  • Now, what would be really nice

    看看當前的太空交通狀況,

  • is if we had something like a space traffic map,

    甚至還可以預測交通。

  • like a Waze for space that I could look up

    然而問題是

  • and see what the current traffic conditions are in space,

    問五個不同的人:

  • maybe even predict these.

    「軌道上發生了什麼事?在哪裡?」

  • The problem with that, however,

    可能會得到十個不同的答案。

  • is that ask five different people,

    為什麼呢?

  • "What's going on in orbit?

    是因為軌道上物體的 相關訊息沒被共享。

  • Where are things going?"

    那麼,如果我們有個

  • and you're probably going to get 10 different answers.

    可供全球讀取、開放和透明的 太空交通訊息系統,

  • Why is that?

    能夠告知公眾一切所在的位置,

  • It's because information about things on orbit is not commonly shared either.

    得以確保太空的安全和永續發展呢?

  • So what if we had a globally accessible,

    如果可以透過運用該系統

  • open and transparent space traffic information system

    來建立以實證為基礎的 太空交通規則行為規範呢?

  • that can inform the public of where everything is located

    因此,我開發了 ASTRIAGraph,

  • to try to keep space safe and sustainable?

    這是位在德州大學奧斯汀分校,

  • And what if the system could be used

    世上第一個以群眾外包 完成的太空交通監控系統。

  • to form evidence-based norms of behavior --

    ASTRIAGraph 結合 來自全球各地的多種訊息來源——

  • these space traffic rules?

    政府、工業和學術界——

  • So I developed ASTRIAGraph,

    建在人人都可以讀取的共同框架中。

  • the world's first crowdsourced, space traffic monitoring system

    在這裡看得到圍繞地球運行的 兩萬六千個物體、

  • at the University of Texas at Austin.

    源自多個看法,

  • ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources of information from around the globe --

    並且近乎即時更新。

  • government, industry and academia --

    回到我的太空交通地圖問題:

  • and represents this in a common framework that anybody can access today.

    如果只收得到美國政府 提供的訊息會怎樣?

  • Here, you can see 26,000 objects orbiting the earth,

    那麼,太空交通地圖就是這模樣。

  • multiple opinions,

    俄國人的呢?

  • and it gets updated in near real time.

    看起來迥異。

  • But back to my problem of space traffic map:

    誰對誰錯?

  • What if you only had information from the US government?

    我應該相信哪個?我能夠相信什麼?

  • Well, in that case, that's what your space traffic map would look like.

    這是部分問題。

  • But what do the Russians think?

    在欠缺監測太空行為的框架——

  • That looks significantly different.

    無法監測太空活動 和物體所在位置——

  • Who's right? Who's wrong?

    若沒調和這些不一致性

  • What should I believe?

    和讓這知識觸手可及,

  • What could I trust?

    我們真的有可能失去

  • This is part of the issue.

    利用太空來造福人類的能力。

  • In the absence of this framework to monitor space-actor behavior,

    非常感謝你們。

  • to monitor activity in space --

    (掌聲)

  • where these objects are located --

  • to reconcile these inconsistencies

  • and make this knowledge commonplace,

  • we actually risk losing the ability

  • to use space for humanity's benefit.

  • Thank you very much.

  • (Applause and cheers)

I am an astrodynamicist --

譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Marssi Draw

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 太空 交通 軌道 物體 衛星

TED】Moriba Jah:世界上第一個眾包空間交通監測系統(世界上第一個眾包空間交通監測系統|Moriba Jah)。 (【TED】Moriba Jah: The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system (The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system | Moriba Jah))

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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