The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,

世界上大約有七十五億人口

and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.

世界衛生組織告訴我們 有三億人有憂鬱症

A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,

而且每年有八十萬人自殺

which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.

當中一小群人採取 一種極端虛無主義的路線

These are some famous recent examples.

就是他們死的時候 也要盡可能殺死愈多人愈好

And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.

這些是近期知名的案子

If you don't remember it,

這個案子則比較少人知道 它發生在九個星期前

it's because there's a lot of this going on.

如果你不記得它

Wikipedia just last year counted 323 mass shootings

那是因為很多類似的事不斷上演

in my home country, the United States.

根據維基百科，光是去年 就有 323 起大規模槍擊事件

Not all of those shooters were suicidal,

發生在我的祖國：美國

not all of them were maximizing their death tolls,

並非所有兇手都有自殺傾向

but many, many were.

並非所有兇手都想 把死亡人數衝到最高

An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?

但許多兇手的確是如此

Take the Vegas shooter.

關鍵的問題變成是： 這些兇手殺人有沒有限度？

He slaughtered 58 people.

比如，拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手

Did he stop there because he'd had enough?

他屠殺了 58 人

No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 people

他停下來，是因為殺夠了嗎？

who he surely would have preferred to kill.

我們知道不是如此 因為他還射傷另外 422 人

We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.

他當時肯定想殺掉這些人

In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.

我們沒理由認為 他會在殺了 4200 人時停手

We don't know.

事實上，這麼虛無主義的人 他可能很樂意殺光我們

What we do know is this:

我們不知道

when suicidal murderers really go all in,

我們確實知道一點：

technology is the force multiplier.

有自殺傾向的兇手賭上一切時

Here's an example.

科技加強了殺傷力

Several years back, there was a rash of 10 mass school attacks in China

這裡有個案例

carried out with things like knives and hammers and cleavers,

幾年前，中國爆發了一連串 共十起大規模學校攻擊事件

because guns are really hard to get there.

武器包括刀子、鐵槌、切肉刀

By macabre coincidence, this last attack occurred

因為在中國很難取得槍枝

just hours before the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.

恐怖的巧合是 最後一次攻擊的發生時間

But that one American attack killed roughly the same number of victims

只比康乃狄克州紐敦大屠殺早幾小時

as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.

但這場美國攻擊事件的受害人數

So we can fairly say, knife: terrible; gun: way worse.

大約等同那十起中國攻擊事件 受害人數的加總

And airplane: massively worse,

所以，我們可以公平地說 刀子：很可怕；槍枝：更糟糕

as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 people

飛機：糟糕透頂了

to join him in his suicide,

因為飛行員安德烈亞斯·盧比茨 證明了他可以強迫 149 個人

smashing a plane into the French Alps.

陪他一起自殺

And there are other examples of this.

將一架飛機開去撞法國阿爾卑斯山

And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes,

還有像這樣的其他案例

ones not made of metal.

我擔心不久的將來 還會出現比飛機更致命的武器

So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensue

不是用金屬做的

if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing field

我們來想一下 如果有自殺傾向的兇手

that for the most part holds boundless promise for society.

利用一個快速進步的科技 會造成什麼樣的大災難

Somewhere out there in the world, there's a tiny group of people

而且這個科技還為社會帶來無限前景

who would attempt, however ineptly,

在世界的某處有一小群人

to kill us all if they could just figure out how.

不論做法多笨拙，也會嘗試

The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,

殺光我們所有人 只要他們想出辦法來

but with seven and a half billion of us,

拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手 可能是這種人，也可能不是

this is a nonzero population.

但世界上有七十五億人

There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there.

絕對會有這種人存在

We've already seen that.

外面有不少自殺傾向的虛無主義者

There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.

我們已經看過了

There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.

有些人具有嚴重的情緒失調 他們自己甚至無法控制

As for the corollary group,

也有人受到精神上的創傷等等

its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,

這類的人

when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliances

在冷戰時期前，人數始終是零

attained the ability to blow up the world.

突然間，世界兩大聯盟的領導人

The number of people with actual doomsday buttons

擁有可以炸掉全世界的能力

has stayed fairly stable since then.

從那之後，擁有末日按鈕的人數

But I'm afraid it's about to grow,

就一直維持不變

and not just to three.

但我擔心這個人數要開始成長了

This is going off the charts.

而且不只從兩人變成三人

I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.

這人數將會爆表

(Laughter)

看起來像科技公司的商業計畫一樣

And the reason is,

（笑聲）

we're in the era of exponential technologies,

而且理由是

which routinely take eternal impossibilities

我們身處在指數成長的科技時代

and make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniuses

這個時代會一直挑戰永遠不可能的事

and -- this is the big part --

然後把這些事轉變成天才般的超能力

then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.

而且，重點是：

Now, here's a benign example.

接著會將那些超能力 普及到每個人身上

If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,

舉一個無害的例子

you literally had to be that guy,

在 1952 年，如果你想要 用電腦玩西洋跳棋

then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,

你就一定得是那個傢伙

then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers.

然後一定要使用那種電腦 而世界上僅有十九台

That was the bar.

再用你聰明絕頂的大腦來教它下棋

Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,

你要面對這些限制

because computing is an exponential technology.

現今，你只需要認識某個人 而他又認識有手機的人即可

So is synthetic biology,

因為運算是一種指數成長的科技

which I'll now refer to as "synbio."

合成生物學也是如此

And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingenious

接下來我會簡稱為「合生學」

and unprecedented as the checkers trick

2011 年，幾位研究員 做了一件事情

with H5N1 flu.

和西洋跳棋的把戲一樣巧妙且空前

This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects,

但應用在 H5N1 流感上

more than Ebola.

被這類病毒感染的人 高達六成會死亡

But it is so uncontagious

致死率比伊波拉還高

that it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.

但它的傳染性不強

So these researchers edited H5N1's genome

所以從 2015 年之後 死亡人數不到五十個

and made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.

這些研究員編輯 H5N1 基因組

The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journals

讓它維持原本的致命性 還能廣泛傳染

said if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemic

世界前兩大科學期刊之一的 新聞部門指出

with perhaps millions of deaths.

如果這東西流出去 會造成一場大規模流行病疫情

And Dr. Paul Keim said

可能會有數百萬人死亡

he could not think of an organism as scary as this,

保羅‧克伊姆博士說

which is the last thing I personally want to hear

他想不出比這更可怕的有機體

from the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

我最不想從國家生物安全科學 顧問委員會主席口中聽到這話

And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --

順便一提，克伊姆博士也說過—— 【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】

["I don't think anthrax is scary at all compared to this."]

而他也是一位炭疽專家 【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】

And he's also one of these.

（笑聲）

[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)

在 2011 年有關生物駭客的好消息是

Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack

做這件事的人並不是為了傷害我們

is that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.

他們是病毒學家

They're virologists.

他們相信自己將科學向前推進

They believed they were advancing science.

壞消息是，這項科技 並沒有適時停下來

The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,

而且接下來幾十年

and over the next few decades,

一般人要做到他們的壯舉 會變得輕而易舉

their feat will become trivially easy.

事實上，現在就已經容易許多了 因為昨天早上我們得知

In fact, it's already way easier, because as we learned yesterday morning,

在他們研究兩年後

just two years after they did their work,

CRISPR 系統就被用來 做基因組編輯

the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.

這是一項根本性的突破

This was a radical breakthrough

讓基因編輯變得簡單許多

that makes gene editing massively easier --

簡單到現在連高中都在教 CRISPR 了

so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.

這東西的進展速度比電腦運算更快

And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.

上面那條緩慢下降的白線是什麼？

That slow, stodgy white line up there?

那是摩爾定律

That's Moore's law.

它代表電腦運算成本下降有多快

That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.

而那條誇張陡峭的綠線

That steep, crazy-fun green line,

代表基因定序成本下降有多快

that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.

基因編輯、合成和定序

Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing,

它們是不同的學科，但它們息息相關

they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.

它們都以驚人的速度在發展

And they're all moving in these headlong rates.

進入這個王國的鑰匙 就是這些極小的資料檔案

And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.

這是 H5N1 基因組當中的一段

That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.

整個基因組的長度大概會佔幾張頁面

The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.

別擔心，你回家就可以趕快搜尋一下

And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home.

網路上到處都有，對吧？

It's all over the internet, right?

讓它變成有傳染性的那一部分

And the part that made it contagious

可以放進一張便利貼

could well fit on a single Post-it note.

只要有位天才做出一個資料檔案

And once a genius makes a data file,

任何白痴都能複製它

any idiot can copy it,

將它發佈到全世界

distribute it worldwide

或把它列印出來

or print it.

我指的不僅是印在這上面

And I don't just mean print it on this,

不用多久，也可以印在這上面

but soon enough, on this.

我們來假想一個情境

So let's imagine a scenario.

比如 2026 年，隨便挑一年

Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year,

一位優秀的病毒學家希望科學再進步

and a brilliant virologist, hoping to advance science

為了進一步暸解流行病

and better understand pandemics,

因此設計了一種新的病菌

designs a new bug.

它的傳染性不輸給水痘

It's as contagious as chicken pox,

致命程度和伊波拉一樣

it's as deadly as Ebola,

它醞釀數個月才會爆發

and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,

所以，發現任何危險徵兆前 全世界可能已經被感染了

so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.

然後，她的大學被駭客入侵

Then, her university gets hacked.

當然，這不是科幻小說

And of course, this is not science fiction.

事實上，美國最近有份起訴書

In fact, just one recent US indictment

記載超過三百間大學被駭客侵入

documents the hacking of over 300 universities.

附帶病菌基因組的檔案 便散播到網路的黑暗角落

So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.

一旦檔案流出去，就再也回不來了

And once a file is out there, it never comes back --

去問電影或唱片公司的人 他們知道這種事

just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.

也許在 2026 年

So now maybe in 2026,

要像病毒學家這樣的天才

it would take a true genius like our virologist

才能製造出活生生的異常生物

to make the actual living critter,

但十五年之後

but 15 years later,

可能只要使用任何高中都有的 DNA 列印機就可以辦到

it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.

如果不是這樣？

And if not?

再過幾十年後仍然會成真

Give it a couple of decades.

讓我打個岔

So, a quick aside:

記得這張投影片嗎？

Remember this slide here?

把注意力放在這兩個字上面：

Turn your attention to these two words.

【或許】

If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective,

如果有人試圖利用這種方式殺人 儘管成功機率只有 0.1%

eight million people die.

就有八百萬人會死亡

That's 2,500 9/11s.

等同九一一事件發生兩千五百次

Civilization would survive,

文明會存活下來

but it would be permanently disfigured.

但它會受到永久性傷害

So this means we need to be concerned about anybody

這就表示我們得要擔心

who has the faintest shot on goal,

任何有一丁點機會 達成這個目標的人

not just geniuses.

不能只擔心那些天才

So today, there's a tiny handful of geniuses

現今，只有一小群天才

who probably could make a doomsday bug

才有可能做出末日病菌

that's .1-percent effective and maybe even a little bit more.

那大概是 0.1% 的成功機率 或稍微高一點

They tend to be stable and successful and so not part of this group.

這些通常是穩定且成功的人

So I guess I'm sorta kinda barely OK-ish with that.

所以不屬於這個族群 【想殺光所有人的一群人】

But what about after technology improves

所以我還勉強可以接受 【想殺光所有人的一群人】

and diffuses

但是如果科技進步了

and thousands of life science grad students are enabled?

而且普及了

Are every single one of them going to be perfectly stable?

數千名生命科學研究生 都能夠做得到呢？

Or how about a few years after that,

但是每一個研究生都很穩定嗎？

where every stress-ridden premed is fully enabled?

如果再過個幾年

At some point in that time frame,

每個壓力大的醫學院預科生 也都能做到呢？

these circles are going to intersect,

到時候，某個時間點

because we're now starting to talk about hundreds of thousands of people

這些圓圈將會有交集

throughout the world.

因為我們在談的是全世界數十萬人

And they recently included that guy who dressed up like the Joker

最近，這類人當中 有一位穿著像是小丑

and shot 12 people to death at a Batman premiere.

在蝙蝠俠首映會上射殺了十二個人

That was a neuroscience PhD student

他是一位神經科學博士生

with an NIH grant.

拿了國家衛生研究院的獎助金

OK, plot twist:

好吧，劇情有所翻轉了：

I think we can actually survive this one if we start focusing on it now.

如果我們現在開始重視這個問題 是有機會安全度過

And I say this, having spent countless hours

我會這麼說，而且已經花了無數小時

interviewing global leaders in synbio

訪問全世界的合生學領導人

and also researching their work for science podcasts I create.

為了我所創立的播客節目 我也去研究他們的成果

I have come to fear their work, in case I haven't gotten that out there yet --

我開始對研究成果感到擔憂 即便我還沒完全弄懂

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

but more than that, to revere its potential.

但不只如此，我更敬畏它的潛力。

This stuff will cure cancer, heal our environment

這些研究可以治療癌症 改善我們的環境

and stop our cruel treatment of other creatures.

阻止我們用殘酷的方式對待其他生物

So how do we get all this without, you know, annihilating ourselves?

我們要如何做到這些成果 同時不要毀滅我們自己？

First thing: like it or not, synbio is here,

首先：不論你們喜不喜歡 合生學的時代來臨了

so let's embrace the technology.

所以，我們就擁抱這項科技吧

If we do a tech ban,

如果我們頒佈科技禁令

that would only hand the wheel to bad actors.

那只會把掌控權交到壞人手上

Unlike nuclear programs,

這不像核能計畫

biology can be practiced invisibly.

生物學可以用看不見的方式進行

Massive Soviet cheating on bioweapons treaties

蘇聯大量違反生化武器協定 就是很好的證明

made that very clear, as does every illegal drug lab in the world.

其他的例子還有 世界各地的非法藥品實驗室

Secondly, enlist the experts.

第二，召募專家

Let's sign them up and make more of them.

把他們簽下來，愈多愈好

For every million and one bioengineers we have,

每一百萬零一名生物工程師當中

at least a million of them are going to be on our side.

至少一百萬名是站在我們這邊的

I mean, Al Capone would be on our side in this one.

這件事上，連黑幫老大 也會站在我們這邊

The bar to being a good guy is just so low.

成為好人的標準非常低

And massive numerical advantages do matter,

在人數上有大量優勢還是很重要

even when a single bad guy can inflict grievous harm,

即使是只有一個壞蛋 造成巨大傷害的情況下

because among many other things,

因為其中一個好處

they allow us to exploit the hell out of this:

就是使我們能夠利用這點：

we have years and hopefully decades to prepare and prevent.

我們還有數年，希望有數十年 可以做好準備和預防

The first person to try something awful -- and there will be somebody --

第一個嘗試去做恐怖事的人 將來會做這件事的人

may not even be born yet.

可能還沒出生

Next, this needs to be an effort that spans society,

接著，整個社會要一同努力

and all of you need to be a part of it,

所有人必須要參與

because we cannot ask a tiny group of experts

因為我們不能要求一小群專家

to be responsible for both containing and exploiting synthetic biology,

既要負責遏制合成生物學 又要利用合成生物學

because we already tried that with the financial system,

因為我們對金融體制試過這個做法

and our stewards became massively corrupted

我們的財務管理者變得非常腐敗

as they figured out how they could cut corners,

他們想出走捷徑的方式

inflict massive, massive risks on the rest of us

讓我們其他人承受非常大的風險

and privatize the gains,

並將利益放進自己的口袋裡

becoming repulsively wealthy

用令人反感的手段致富

while they stuck us with the $22 trillion bill.

同時丟給我們 一張 22 兆美元的帳單

And more recently --

更近期——

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Are you the ones who have gotten the thank-you letters?

你們是有收到感謝信的人嗎？ 我還在等我的信

I'm still waiting for mine.

我覺得他們是太忙所以沒空感恩

I just figured they were too busy to be grateful.

再更近期