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  • So, there's about seven and a half billion of us.

    譯者: Lo Hsien Huang 審譯者: Helen Chang

  • The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,

    世界上大約有七十五億人口

  • and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.

    世界衛生組織告訴我們 有三億人有憂鬱症

  • A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,

    而且每年有八十萬人自殺

  • which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.

    當中一小群人採取 一種極端虛無主義的路線

  • These are some famous recent examples.

    就是他們死的時候 也要盡可能殺死愈多人愈好

  • And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.

    這些是近期知名的案子

  • If you don't remember it,

    這個案子則比較少人知道 它發生在九個星期前

  • it's because there's a lot of this going on.

    如果你不記得它

  • Wikipedia just last year counted 323 mass shootings

    那是因為很多類似的事不斷上演

  • in my home country, the United States.

    根據維基百科,光是去年 就有 323 起大規模槍擊事件

  • Not all of those shooters were suicidal,

    發生在我的祖國:美國

  • not all of them were maximizing their death tolls,

    並非所有兇手都有自殺傾向

  • but many, many were.

    並非所有兇手都想 把死亡人數衝到最高

  • An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?

    但許多兇手的確是如此

  • Take the Vegas shooter.

    關鍵的問題變成是: 這些兇手殺人有沒有限度?

  • He slaughtered 58 people.

    比如,拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手

  • Did he stop there because he'd had enough?

    他屠殺了 58 人

  • No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 people

    他停下來,是因為殺夠了嗎?

  • who he surely would have preferred to kill.

    我們知道不是如此 因為他還射傷另外 422 人

  • We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.

    他當時肯定想殺掉這些人

  • In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.

    我們沒理由認為 他會在殺了 4200 人時停手

  • We don't know.

    事實上,這麼虛無主義的人 他可能很樂意殺光我們

  • What we do know is this:

    我們不知道

  • when suicidal murderers really go all in,

    我們確實知道一點:

  • technology is the force multiplier.

    有自殺傾向的兇手賭上一切時

  • Here's an example.

    科技加強了殺傷力

  • Several years back, there was a rash of 10 mass school attacks in China

    這裡有個案例

  • carried out with things like knives and hammers and cleavers,

    幾年前,中國爆發了一連串 共十起大規模學校攻擊事件

  • because guns are really hard to get there.

    武器包括刀子、鐵槌、切肉刀

  • By macabre coincidence, this last attack occurred

    因為在中國很難取得槍枝

  • just hours before the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.

    恐怖的巧合是 最後一次攻擊的發生時間

  • But that one American attack killed roughly the same number of victims

    只比康乃狄克州紐敦大屠殺早幾小時

  • as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.

    但這場美國攻擊事件的受害人數

  • So we can fairly say, knife: terrible; gun: way worse.

    大約等同那十起中國攻擊事件 受害人數的加總

  • And airplane: massively worse,

    所以,我們可以公平地說 刀子:很可怕;槍枝:更糟糕

  • as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 people

    飛機:糟糕透頂了

  • to join him in his suicide,

    因為飛行員安德烈亞斯·盧比茨 證明了他可以強迫 149 個人

  • smashing a plane into the French Alps.

    陪他一起自殺

  • And there are other examples of this.

    將一架飛機開去撞法國阿爾卑斯山

  • And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes,

    還有像這樣的其他案例

  • ones not made of metal.

    我擔心不久的將來 還會出現比飛機更致命的武器

  • So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensue

    不是用金屬做的

  • if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing field

    我們來想一下 如果有自殺傾向的兇手

  • that for the most part holds boundless promise for society.

    利用一個快速進步的科技 會造成什麼樣的大災難

  • Somewhere out there in the world, there's a tiny group of people

    而且這個科技還為社會帶來無限前景

  • who would attempt, however ineptly,

    在世界的某處有一小群人

  • to kill us all if they could just figure out how.

    不論做法多笨拙,也會嘗試

  • The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,

    殺光我們所有人 只要他們想出辦法來

  • but with seven and a half billion of us,

    拉斯維加斯槍擊案兇手 可能是這種人,也可能不是

  • this is a nonzero population.

    但世界上有七十五億人

  • There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there.

    絕對會有這種人存在

  • We've already seen that.

    外面有不少自殺傾向的虛無主義者

  • There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.

    我們已經看過了

  • There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.

    有些人具有嚴重的情緒失調 他們自己甚至無法控制

  • As for the corollary group,

    也有人受到精神上的創傷等等

  • its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,

    這類的人

  • when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliances

    在冷戰時期前,人數始終是零

  • attained the ability to blow up the world.

    突然間,世界兩大聯盟的領導人

  • The number of people with actual doomsday buttons

    擁有可以炸掉全世界的能力

  • has stayed fairly stable since then.

    從那之後,擁有末日按鈕的人數

  • But I'm afraid it's about to grow,

    就一直維持不變

  • and not just to three.

    但我擔心這個人數要開始成長了

  • This is going off the charts.

    而且不只從兩人變成三人

  • I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.

    這人數將會爆表

  • (Laughter)

    看起來像科技公司的商業計畫一樣

  • And the reason is,

    (笑聲)

  • we're in the era of exponential technologies,

    而且理由是

  • which routinely take eternal impossibilities

    我們身處在指數成長的科技時代

  • and make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniuses

    這個時代會一直挑戰永遠不可能的事

  • and -- this is the big part --

    然後把這些事轉變成天才般的超能力

  • then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.

    而且,重點是:

  • Now, here's a benign example.

    接著會將那些超能力 普及到每個人身上

  • If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,

    舉一個無害的例子

  • you literally had to be that guy,

    在 1952 年,如果你想要 用電腦玩西洋跳棋

  • then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,

    你就一定得是那個傢伙

  • then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers.

    然後一定要使用那種電腦 而世界上僅有十九台

  • That was the bar.

    再用你聰明絕頂的大腦來教它下棋

  • Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,

    你要面對這些限制

  • because computing is an exponential technology.

    現今,你只需要認識某個人 而他又認識有手機的人即可

  • So is synthetic biology,

    因為運算是一種指數成長的科技

  • which I'll now refer to as "synbio."

    合成生物學也是如此

  • And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingenious

    接下來我會簡稱為「合生學」

  • and unprecedented as the checkers trick

    2011 年,幾位研究員 做了一件事情

  • with H5N1 flu.

    和西洋跳棋的把戲一樣巧妙且空前

  • This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects,

    但應用在 H5N1 流感上

  • more than Ebola.

    被這類病毒感染的人 高達六成會死亡

  • But it is so uncontagious

    致死率比伊波拉還高

  • that it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.

    但它的傳染性不強

  • So these researchers edited H5N1's genome

    所以從 2015 年之後 死亡人數不到五十個

  • and made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.

    這些研究員編輯 H5N1 基因組

  • The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journals

    讓它維持原本的致命性 還能廣泛傳染

  • said if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemic

    世界前兩大科學期刊之一的 新聞部門指出

  • with perhaps millions of deaths.

    如果這東西流出去 會造成一場大規模流行病疫情

  • And Dr. Paul Keim said

    可能會有數百萬人死亡

  • he could not think of an organism as scary as this,

    保羅‧克伊姆博士說

  • which is the last thing I personally want to hear

    他想不出比這更可怕的有機體

  • from the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

    我最不想從國家生物安全科學 顧問委員會主席口中聽到這話

  • And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --

    順便一提,克伊姆博士也說過—— 【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】

  • ["I don't think anthrax is scary at all compared to this."]

    而他也是一位炭疽專家 【我不認為炭疽比這更可怕】

  • And he's also one of these.

    (笑聲)

  • [Anthrax expert] (Laughter)

    在 2011 年有關生物駭客的好消息是

  • Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack

    做這件事的人並不是為了傷害我們

  • is that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.

    他們是病毒學家

  • They're virologists.

    他們相信自己將科學向前推進

  • They believed they were advancing science.

    壞消息是,這項科技 並沒有適時停下來

  • The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,

    而且接下來幾十年

  • and over the next few decades,

    一般人要做到他們的壯舉 會變得輕而易舉

  • their feat will become trivially easy.

    事實上,現在就已經容易許多了 因為昨天早上我們得知

  • In fact, it's already way easier, because as we learned yesterday morning,

    在他們研究兩年後

  • just two years after they did their work,

    CRISPR 系統就被用來 做基因組編輯

  • the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.

    這是一項根本性的突破

  • This was a radical breakthrough

    讓基因編輯變得簡單許多

  • that makes gene editing massively easier --

    簡單到現在連高中都在教 CRISPR 了

  • so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.

    這東西的進展速度比電腦運算更快

  • And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.

    上面那條緩慢下降的白線是什麼?

  • That slow, stodgy white line up there?

    那是摩爾定律

  • That's Moore's law.

    它代表電腦運算成本下降有多快

  • That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.

    而那條誇張陡峭的綠線

  • That steep, crazy-fun green line,

    代表基因定序成本下降有多快

  • that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.

    基因編輯、合成和定序

  • Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing,

    它們是不同的學科,但它們息息相關

  • they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.

    它們都以驚人的速度在發展

  • And they're all moving in these headlong rates.

    進入這個王國的鑰匙 就是這些極小的資料檔案

  • And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.

    這是 H5N1 基因組當中的一段

  • That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.

    整個基因組的長度大概會佔幾張頁面

  • The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.

    別擔心,你回家就可以趕快搜尋一下

  • And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home.

    網路上到處都有,對吧?

  • It's all over the internet, right?

    讓它變成有傳染性的那一部分

  • And the part that made it contagious

    可以放進一張便利貼

  • could well fit on a single Post-it note.

    只要有位天才做出一個資料檔案

  • And once a genius makes a data file,

    任何白痴都能複製它

  • any idiot can copy it,

    將它發佈到全世界

  • distribute it worldwide

    或把它列印出來

  • or print it.

    我指的不僅是印在這上面

  • And I don't just mean print it on this,

    不用多久,也可以印在這上面

  • but soon enough, on this.

    我們來假想一個情境

  • So let's imagine a scenario.

    比如 2026 年,隨便挑一年

  • Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year,

    一位優秀的病毒學家希望科學再進步

  • and a brilliant virologist, hoping to advance science

    為了進一步暸解流行病

  • and better understand pandemics,

    因此設計了一種新的病菌

  • designs a new bug.

    它的傳染性不輸給水痘

  • It's as contagious as chicken pox,

    致命程度和伊波拉一樣

  • it's as deadly as Ebola,

    它醞釀數個月才會爆發

  • and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,

    所以,發現任何危險徵兆前 全世界可能已經被感染了

  • so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.

    然後,她的大學被駭客入侵

  • Then, her university gets hacked.

    當然,這不是科幻小說

  • And of course, this is not science fiction.

    事實上,美國最近有份起訴書

  • In fact, just one recent US indictment

    記載超過三百間大學被駭客侵入

  • documents the hacking of over 300 universities.

    附帶病菌基因組的檔案 便散播到網路的黑暗角落

  • So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.

    一旦檔案流出去,就再也回不來了

  • And once a file is out there, it never comes back --

    去問電影或唱片公司的人 他們知道這種事

  • just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.

    也許在 2026 年

  • So now maybe in 2026,

    要像病毒學家這樣的天才

  • it would take a true genius like our virologist

    才能製造出活生生的異常生物

  • to make the actual living critter,

    但十五年之後

  • but 15 years later,

    可能只要使用任何高中都有的 DNA 列印機就可以辦到

  • it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.

    如果不是這樣?

  • And if not?

    再過幾十年後仍然會成真

  • Give it a couple of decades.

    讓我打個岔

  • So, a quick aside:

    記得這張投影片嗎?

  • Remember this slide here?

    把注意力放在這兩個字上面:

  • Turn your attention to these two words.

    【或許】

  • If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective,

    如果有人試圖利用這種方式殺人 儘管成功機率只有 0.1%

  • eight million people die.

    就有八百萬人會死亡

  • That's 2,500 9/11s.

    等同九一一事件發生兩千五百次

  • Civilization would survive,

    文明會存活下來

  • but it would be permanently disfigured.

    但它會受到永久性傷害

  • So this means we need to be concerned about anybody

    這就表示我們得要擔心

  • who has the faintest shot on goal,

    任何有一丁點機會 達成這個目標的人

  • not just geniuses.

    不能只擔心那些天才

  • So today, there's a tiny handful of geniuses

    現今,只有一小群天才

  • who probably could make a doomsday bug

    才有可能做出末日病菌

  • that's .1-percent effective and maybe even a little bit more.

    那大概是 0.1% 的成功機率 或稍微高一點

  • They tend to be stable and successful and so not part of this group.

    這些通常是穩定且成功的人

  • So I guess I'm sorta kinda barely OK-ish with that.

    所以不屬於這個族群 【想殺光所有人的一群人】

  • But what about after technology improves

    所以我還勉強可以接受 【想殺光所有人的一群人】

  • and diffuses

    但是如果科技進步了

  • and thousands of life science grad students are enabled?

    而且普及了

  • Are every single one of them going to be perfectly stable?

    數千名生命科學研究生 都能夠做得到呢?

  • Or how about a few years after that,

    但是每一個研究生都很穩定嗎?

  • where every stress-ridden premed is fully enabled?

    如果再過個幾年

  • At some point in that time frame,

    每個壓力大的醫學院預科生 也都能做到呢?

  • these circles are going to intersect,

    到時候,某個時間點

  • because we're now starting to talk about hundreds of thousands of people

    這些圓圈將會有交集

  • throughout the world.

    因為我們在談的是全世界數十萬人

  • And they recently included that guy who dressed up like the Joker

    最近,這類人當中 有一位穿著像是小丑

  • and shot 12 people to death at a Batman premiere.

    在蝙蝠俠首映會上射殺了十二個人

  • That was a neuroscience PhD student

    他是一位神經科學博士生

  • with an NIH grant.

    拿了國家衛生研究院的獎助金

  • OK, plot twist:

    好吧,劇情有所翻轉了:

  • I think we can actually survive this one if we start focusing on it now.

    如果我們現在開始重視這個問題 是有機會安全度過

  • And I say this, having spent countless hours

    我會這麼說,而且已經花了無數小時

  • interviewing global leaders in synbio

    訪問全世界的合生學領導人

  • and also researching their work for science podcasts I create.

    為了我所創立的播客節目 我也去研究他們的成果

  • I have come to fear their work, in case I haven't gotten that out there yet --

    我開始對研究成果感到擔憂 即便我還沒完全弄懂

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • but more than that, to revere its potential.

    但不只如此,我更敬畏它的潛力。

  • This stuff will cure cancer, heal our environment

    這些研究可以治療癌症 改善我們的環境

  • and stop our cruel treatment of other creatures.

    阻止我們用殘酷的方式對待其他生物

  • So how do we get all this without, you know, annihilating ourselves?

    我們要如何做到這些成果 同時不要毀滅我們自己?

  • First thing: like it or not, synbio is here,

    首先:不論你們喜不喜歡 合生學的時代來臨了

  • so let's embrace the technology.

    所以,我們就擁抱這項科技吧

  • If we do a tech ban,

    如果我們頒佈科技禁令

  • that would only hand the wheel to bad actors.

    那只會把掌控權交到壞人手上

  • Unlike nuclear programs,

    這不像核能計畫

  • biology can be practiced invisibly.

    生物學可以用看不見的方式進行

  • Massive Soviet cheating on bioweapons treaties

    蘇聯大量違反生化武器協定 就是很好的證明

  • made that very clear, as does every illegal drug lab in the world.

    其他的例子還有 世界各地的非法藥品實驗室

  • Secondly, enlist the experts.

    第二,召募專家

  • Let's sign them up and make more of them.

    把他們簽下來,愈多愈好

  • For every million and one bioengineers we have,

    每一百萬零一名生物工程師當中

  • at least a million of them are going to be on our side.

    至少一百萬名是站在我們這邊的

  • I mean, Al Capone would be on our side in this one.

    這件事上,連黑幫老大 也會站在我們這邊

  • The bar to being a good guy is just so low.

    成為好人的標準非常低

  • And massive numerical advantages do matter,

    在人數上有大量優勢還是很重要

  • even when a single bad guy can inflict grievous harm,

    即使是只有一個壞蛋 造成巨大傷害的情況下

  • because among many other things,

    因為其中一個好處

  • they allow us to exploit the hell out of this:

    就是使我們能夠利用這點:

  • we have years and hopefully decades to prepare and prevent.

    我們還有數年,希望有數十年 可以做好準備和預防

  • The first person to try something awful -- and there will be somebody --

    第一個嘗試去做恐怖事的人 將來會做這件事的人

  • may not even be born yet.

    可能還沒出生

  • Next, this needs to be an effort that spans society,

    接著,整個社會要一同努力

  • and all of you need to be a part of it,

    所有人必須要參與

  • because we cannot ask a tiny group of experts

    因為我們不能要求一小群專家

  • to be responsible for both containing and exploiting synthetic biology,

    既要負責遏制合成生物學 又要利用合成生物學

  • because we already tried that with the financial system,

    因為我們對金融體制試過這個做法

  • and our stewards became massively corrupted

    我們的財務管理者變得非常腐敗

  • as they figured out how they could cut corners,

    他們想出走捷徑的方式

  • inflict massive, massive risks on the rest of us

    讓我們其他人承受非常大的風險

  • and privatize the gains,

    並將利益放進自己的口袋裡

  • becoming repulsively wealthy

    用令人反感的手段致富

  • while they stuck us with the $22 trillion bill.

    同時丟給我們 一張 22 兆美元的帳單

  • And more recently --

    更近期——

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • Are you the ones who have gotten the thank-you letters?

    你們是有收到感謝信的人嗎? 我還在等我的信

  • I'm still waiting for mine.

    我覺得他們是太忙所以沒空感恩

  • I just figured they were too busy to be grateful.

    再更近期