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  • By 2039, the world will look and feel very different.

    到了 2039 年,這個世界會變得非常不一樣。

  • The rate of change is itself speeding up.

    改變的速度本身也在加快。

  • And 20 years from now power will have shifted dramatically.

    從今以後的未來 20 年,權力會有明顯的轉移。

  • So who might be up and who might be down, twenty years from now?

    所以 20 年後,哪些地區會崛起,又有哪些地區會沒落呢?

  • Let me take you on a journey of possibles.

    讓我帶你遊歷這些可能性。

  • Up, Africa.

    非洲崛起。

  • A rapidly increasing population could fuel Africa's surging economic growth.

    非洲人口增加迅速,會刺激其急速上升的經濟成長。

  • With a pool of young, better educated and globally connected workers.

    他們擁有眾多年輕、教育更良好且與世界接軌的勞動人口。

  • But the biggest revolution in Africa might be the spread of vast, super arrays of far cheaper solar panels.

    但非洲最大的革命可能是大量分布、超大批超便宜的太陽能板。

  • To quote one energy guru:

    我在此引述一句能源指標:

  • "The world will have learnt to put solar panels where the sun actually shines."

    「未來這個世界理當會把太陽能板放在真正有太陽的地方。」

  • Also up, China.

    另外,中國也將崛起。

  • THE superpower.

    這個超級大國。

  • After cornering many of the worlds vital raw materials, could it now control both its own people and many other countries struggling to repay its loans.

    在壟斷世界上許多重要原物料之後,中國能控制自己的人民以及其他多國嗎?那些欠債難還的國家。

  • Could we see a world where China exerts its influence through movies and music too?

    我們有辦法看到中國將影響力發揮至電影、音樂領域裡嗎?

  • But if there are winners, which countries could be losers by 2039?

    但既然有贏家,哪些國家在 2039 年會成為輸家?

  • Down, perhaps most of Europe.

    大部分歐洲國家大概都會沒落。

  • Financial services and banking will be overwhelmingly driven by AI.

    金融服務與銀行都將全面被人工智慧控制。

  • So Europe loses much of its global edge.

    所以歐洲將失去其全球化的優勢。

  • Parents who once urged children to become lawyers and doctors, beg them to become designers, artists, even actors.

    以前家長要求小孩成為律師和醫師,現在家長求孩子們成為設計師、藝術家,甚至是演員。

  • Anything creative, not easily done by robots.

    只要有創意,不易被機器人取代。

  • Down but not out, the United States of America.

    沒落,但還不至於退出的是美國。

  • Eclipsed by China and paying a price for getting late to wind and solar.

    因中國的崛起黯然失色,並因未即時引入風力、太陽能發電而付出代價。

  • Also down, the Middle East.

    另外將沒落的還有中東國家。

  • Largely ignored internationally because no one needs its oil and gas anymore.

    在國際上大多被忽略,因為不再有人需要他們的石油和天然氣了。

  • So what commodities could be driving the future in 2039?

    所以 2039 年,哪些日需品會推動我們的未來?

  • Fossil fuels have become the new forbidden fruit.

    化石燃料將成為新的禁忌。

  • Oil has lost most of its value, alternative fuels plus a collapse in the use of plastics has seen to that.

    石油已失去其價值,我們從替代燃料以及大量減塑就能觀察到。

  • Water, clean water, will be more precious than ever.

    水,乾淨的水,將變得極為珍貴。

  • Water wars have replaced oil wars, along the Nile or any mighty river.

    沿著尼羅河或任何一條大河,水戰爭將取代石油戰爭。

  • Conflicts could break out as states closest to the sea fight those further upstream, accused of taking too much of the water.

    靠海的城市可能會與位於河流上游的國家爭執,並可能爆發衝突,原因是上游取水過多。

  • Data, however, will be king.

    然而,數據將稱霸。

  • By 2039, more and more is being bought and sold.

    到了 2039 年,越來越多數據資料會被買進、賣出。

  • Mostly illegally and in secret.

    多數為暗自非法買賣。

  • All governments will rely on data as THE method of control.

    所有執政者都將依賴數據,它將成為治理國家的主要手法。

  • Some countries will have followed the Scandinavian lead.

    有些國家可能會跟著北歐國家的帶領。

  • By choosing near total transparencyof tax returns, earnings, lifestyles to reduce the secret data threat.

    選擇幾乎全面透明化,如退稅、所得、生活方式,以減少秘密數據帶來的威脅。

  • And more and more citizens everywhere could be fighting backbecoming data refuseniks.

    而將有越來越多公民在世界各處反抗,成為數據反對者。

  • Fed up with the negative effects of social media, will they simply abandon cyber space wherever they can?

    他們受夠了社群媒體帶來的負面影響,他們是否會盡可能放棄使用網際網路呢?

  • Minimizing their electronic footprint even reverting to writing and delivering private messages by hand.

    減少他們的數位足跡,甚至回到手寫並郵寄私人信息。

By 2039, the world will look and feel very different.

到了 2039 年,這個世界會變得非常不一樣。

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大風吹!未來 20 年世界霸權握誰手中?(Which countries will hold the power in 20 years' time? | BBC Ideas)

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    Celeste 發佈於 2019 年 08 月 12 日
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