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  • Theresa May has set a date for her departure as prime minister.

    英國首相梅伊已確定卸任日期。

  • Verdicts and judgments on her period in office are going to be flooding in over the next few days.

    接下來幾天會大量湧入梅伊任期內的評論與批判。

  • It's certainly the case that she was set an impossible problem with delivering Brexit.

    要完成脫歐程序確實是一件艱鉅的任務。

  • But she made that problem immeasurably harder for herself by her failure to communicate her own strategy for doing so.

    但因梅伊未能說服國會自己的脫歐策略,讓這項任務幾乎變得不可能。

  • "Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it."

    「會脫歐就是會脫歐,我們一定會成功地完成這件事。」

  • She started off as an imperious figure going out to bat for Britain, and get a great deal, and show strength rather than weakness.

    她先是以傲慢的姿態代表英國協商,希望能達成全面性的脫歐協議,並在國際展現出其優勢而非劣勢。

  • She ended up arguing for compromise.

    但最後她卻不斷地向歐盟妥協。

  • And If you're going to do that you have to start off arguing for compromise, not get there at the end.

    而若要這麼做,她一開始就應該要妥協,而非事發至今才讓步。

  • "In order to get the best deal for Britain we need to ensure we've got that strong and stable leadership."

    「為了國家與歐盟達成最完善的脫歐協議,我們必須確保領導層態度堅決、立場穩定。」

  • In the end she's been let down by her shortcomings as a political tactician and a political operator, as much as by the complexity of the situation that she faced.

    最後她的政治策略和政治操作成了弱點,一同她所面對的複雜議題,無法達成共識。

  • Her game plan was to deliver Brexit, to get a deal with the European Union, and to keep the Conservative party together at the same time.

    她的策略是同時完成脫歐、和歐盟達成協議,並設法留住保守黨。

  • And these three things were very, very hard to reconcile.

    然而這三件事十分難達成協調。

  • So what comes next?

    所以接下來呢?

  • Well there's going to be a Conservative party leadership election.

    接下來將有一場保守黨黨魁選戰。

  • It's going to start the week of June the 10th.

    將於 6 月 10 日當週開始。

  • It'll be whittled down to a shortlist of two by MPs over the course of that week, and then Conservative party members will choose the successor.

    當週從保守黨黨員中縮減至兩位黨員列入候選名單,而保守黨黨員便將選出接任黨魁。

  • "Do you think you're too divisive a character to be Tory leader?"

    「你覺得自己要成為保守黨主席是否過於有爭議性?」

  • The front-runner to succeed her will certainly be Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and leading figure in the Leave campaign.

    最有可能接任首相一職的人絕對是 Boris Johnson,他是前外交大臣以及脫歐派領袖人物。

  • But the Conservative party has a track record of not picking its front-runners, and this is going to be a very, very large field.

    但按照保守黨的先前紀錄,領先者最後往往不會當選黨魁,況且這次黨內選舉的戰況將非常激烈。

  • So you certainly can't take it for granted that he's going to emerge as the winner in the end.

    所以你絕對無法保證他將成為最後贏家。

  • So where does this actually leave the issue of Brexit, the issue that has fundamentally brought down Theresa May?

    那麼擊垮梅伊的脫歐爭議,進展得如何呢?

  • The obvious immediate conclusion is that it makes a no-deal exit more likely, but that's not the same as making it definite.

    最明顯、最直接的結論是,這提高了無協議脫歐的可能性,但這並不代表其肯定性。

  • None of the candidates are actually going to advocate a no-deal Brexit.

    沒有一位候選人會主張無協議脫歐。

  • But what they will say is that they are prepared to see a no-deal Brexit if they can't get the right deal for Britain.

    但他們會說,若無法替英國爭取到最佳協議,他們已替無協議脫歐做足準備。

  • And in particular, that means junking the hated Northern Ireland backstop designed to create a frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

    尤其是放棄使用備受爭議的邊境保障措施,也就是愛爾蘭與北愛爾蘭之間不會出現「硬邊界」。

  • The fundamental problem with going down that path remains the hostility of the House of Commons, which does not want to see a no-deal Brexit.

    而實施邊境保障措施的根本問題仍出自下議院的反對,他們不會任由無協議脫歐的狀況發生。

  • It is true that constitutionally it's very hard to stop a prime minister set on doing this.

    的確,憲法上我們無法阻止首相強硬脫歐協議的決心。

  • But there are ways, including a vote of confidence designed to bring down the government.

    但仍有其他方式,包含對首相的信任投票,其策略為透過信任票拖垮整個政府。

  • That would require some Conservatives being ready to bring down their party in order to prevent this.

    若要這麼做,許多保守黨員將必須為拖垮整個黨派做準備。

  • But there are a handful who might be prepared to do that.

    而事實是,少數黨員確實已為此做足準備。

  • And the Conservatives will know that a general election at this time is not a welcome prospect.

    他們會知道,這時候舉辦英國大選並非好時機。

  • They will all be very scared of it.

    他們將對此感到害怕。

  • And none of them will want to elect a leader who's going to plunge them into a general election very soon.

    而他們不會有人想選出一位很快又被投下不信任票的黨魁。

  • Especially after what we expect to be catastrophic European parliamentary elections.

    尤其在歐洲議會選舉過後,保守黨如預期地重挫。

  • We get the results Sunday night and Monday morning.

    我們在週日晚間與週一早上得知選舉結果。

  • They're almost certain to be the worst results the Conservative party have ever had in any election ever.

    幾乎能肯定的是,此為保守黨在所有選舉中有史以來最差的表現。

  • "It will be for my successor to seek a way forward that honours the result of the referendum."

    「我的繼任者將要找出更進一步的方法以落實公投結果。」

  • "To succeed, he or she will have to find consensus in parliament, where I have not."

    「若要成功,他必須在議會中試圖達到我未能達成的共識。」

  • "Such a consensus can only be reached if those on all sides of the debate are willing to compromise."

    「如此共識,唯有在所有辯論各方都願意妥協之下,才能達成。」

  • The most interesting part of Theresa May's resignation speech in Downing Street was where she said:

    最值得一提的是,梅伊在唐寧街的辭職演說中提到:

  • That the next leader is going to have to proceed in the spirit of compromise.

    下一位繼任者若要繼續脫歐程序,必須願意妥協。

  • They're going to have to find a compromise.

    各方必須各退一步。

  • And that was very interesting because the party clearly is in no mood to compromise over Brexit.

    這十分值得注意,因為很明顯地,保守黨毫無意願在脫歐協議中讓步。

  • The leader may have changed but the parliamentary arithmetic and the problems have not.

    或許首相換了,但國會的政治計算與當前的問題並沒有改變。

Theresa May has set a date for her departure as prime minister.

英國首相梅伊已確定卸任日期。

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英國脫歐:英國前首相梅伊未能完成的遺憾 (Brexit: why Theresa May failed to deliver)

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    Celeste 發佈於 2019 年 06 月 08 日
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