Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • Things are looking up for China.

    中國的前景一片看好。

  • The world's second-largest economy expanded by 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year.

    今年首季,中國這個世界最大的經濟體成長了百分之 6.4。

  • Just a little bit higher than economists' expectations of 6.3 percent.

    比經濟學者們預測的 6.3% 高出一點。

  • So what does this mean for China?

    這對中國意味著什麼呢?

  • For one, it shows that concerns over a trade war with America are fading.

    一方面這顯示中美貿易戰的疑慮正在消退。

  • President Donald Trump backpedaled last month on vows to ramp up tariffs on Chinese goods.

    上個月 (2019 年 3 月) 川普總統誓言將採取報復手段,提高中國貨物關稅。

  • And the two countries are aiming to wrap up talks within a month.

    而雙方希望在一個月內讓談判告一段落。

  • On the domestic front, the rosy gross domestic product numbers demonstrate that a stimulus plan is kicking into gear.

    至於中國內部情況,從樂觀的 GDP 數字便可看出景氣刺激措施確實生效。

  • China usually waits until March to allocate local government bond quotas.

    中國通常會觀望到三月再釋出地方政府債券配額。

  • This year, Beijing made sure that local governments were raising debt as early as January, in order to spend on infrastructure projects.

    反觀今年北京政府在一月就先向地方政府確認債券發行,來為基礎設施計畫籌措資金。

  • To show they're serious about spending, local leaders raised Rmb 1.2 trillion.

    為了展現大興土木的決心,地方政府領袖籌到 1.2 兆人民幣。

  • That's about $179 billion in the first quarter.

    也就是在第一季籌到約 1790 億美元。

  • In the same period in 2017 and 2018, they didn't raise anything.

    在 2017、2018 年同一季,中國政府並沒有籌措任何資金。

  • There's also a Rmb 2 trillion tax cut coming down the line.

    接下來還有 2 兆人民幣的減稅措施。

  • Economists are mixed on whether the taxes will have a meaningful impact this year.

    究竟稅法是否會在今年造成顯著影響,經濟學家看法不一。

  • Are there risks?

    有什麼風險存在嗎?

  • Absolutely.

    無庸置疑。

  • The biggest is an unwanted surprise on trade talks with the US.

    最大的風險在於中美貿易談判可能出現某種不受歡迎的驚喜。

  • A bad deal, or no deal for China,

    不利於中國的協議,甚或談判破局,都可能擊潰投資人信心及出口商;而這兩者都是中國的經濟骨幹。

  • Economists aren't too worried about the Chinese property sector, one of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.

    經濟學者並不擔心中國房產市場—對 GDP 成長貢獻最多的其中一個產業。

  • Property sales have been rising, and so are prices, according to a recent survey.

    根據最近一項調查顯示,房產銷售額與價格持續上升。

  • But there are some signs of a slowdown in construction.

    然而營造業卻出現一些成長放緩的跡象。

  • Land sales were down in the first three months of 2019.

    2019 第一季中土地銷售下降。

  • That means developers aren't buying as much, and probably won't build as much this year.

    這意味著開發商之購買數量不如以往,今年的建案也可能減少。

  • Any sharp, unexpected correction in the market would be devastating for growth in China.

    一旦市場出現劇烈、意外的修正情形,都會嚴重衝擊中國經濟成長。

  • There's also a chance the stimulus could get the better of China.

    此外經濟刺激措施也可能反過來對中國造成傷害。

  • If the trade deal with the US delivers a positive result next month, Beijing will probably need to tone down the spending in order to avoid excess debt growth.

    倘若 4 月能與美方達成有利的協議,北京或許將縮減支出以避免進一步過度舉債。

Things are looking up for China.

中國的前景一片看好。

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 英國腔 FinancialTimes 中國 經濟 措施 談判 北京

中國經濟重回正軌 (China's economy back on track)

  • 378 19
    Jessieeee 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字