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  • hey YouTube I'm Jimmy in this video I'm gonna walk through my analysis of the

  • Intel Corporation ticker symbol INTC this continues our series or we're

  • analyzing all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average this is the 15th

  • video in the series we're halfway through and you can see a link to all

  • the videos in the description below then after we're done with all 30 companies

  • we're going to go out and try to build three different portfolios a value a

  • growth and a dividend portfolio Intel's business is broken at the five main

  • segments their largest segment is the client computing group this segment

  • targets notebook and desktop markets they recently launched their eighth

  • generation of Intel's Core processors and the Intel Core X series then we have

  • the data center segment that segment focuses on products for the cloud and

  • for communication communication infrastructure this segment has a

  • potential to keep growing from both artificial intelligence and the cloud

  • then we have the Internet of Things segment this segment over the past five

  • years has grown in an average rate of 15% a year which is fantastic this

  • segment makes up high-performance products for the retail automotive

  • industrial and other embedded applications this is a rapidly evolving

  • segment so Intel needs to do what it can to stay ahead of the curve when it comes

  • to innovation then we have the non-volatile memory Solutions Group and

  • the programmable solutions group the memory segments they focus on making 3d

  • NAND flash memory and that's used in solid-state memory devices then they

  • have the programmable Solutions Group they focus on making programmable

  • semiconductors and that's used in cars military data centers communications

  • industrials and so on now Intel has claimed claims that over the past year

  • this segment both of these segments look to really be picking up speed so that's

  • a good thing so I've done research on a bunch of different industries and I was

  • curious to see how Intel was going to stack up from a performance perspective

  • relative to some of the other companies we've done and I'm not sure if you saw

  • our recent IBM video we just published a few days ago but I was

  • surprised to see the slide in revenue that IBM has had

  • over the past few years so when I got to Intel I was pleasantly surprised that

  • this chart this is a revenue chart goes back to 2011 and as you could see after

  • being flat for a few years it looks like revenue is starting to

  • jump up now these green bars they're estimates but the first three quarters

  • of 2018 are already closed so this 2018 estimate is really just how will the

  • fourth quarter add to the first three quarters but now let's look at margins

  • and as we could see gross profit margins have been a bit all over the place

  • and although 2018 looks to be better it seems that analyst expectations are

  • there 2019 gross margins will pull back a bit and when we switch over to net

  • income margins we can see that what really stands out is the expected jump

  • in 2018 and 2019 so if things really play out that way well that would really

  • be nice for earnings per share and perhaps the stock price now when I'm

  • analyzing a stock I like to look at a few different ratios to see what we can

  • uncover about the company any information we can see to try to

  • understand what they do or how they're doing it since we're planning to put

  • together a dividend portfolio I think it's good that we could start there to

  • see how that looks so this chart illustrates the trailing 12-month

  • dividends going all the way back to 2008 and the dividend yield at that time the

  • current dividend yield is about 2.5 percent that's the red line and that's

  • tied to the right axis and we also have the blue bars which tell you how much

  • the dividend actually was we could see that it's about $1.20 over the

  • past four quarters and we can see that Intel has done a great job of

  • consistently paying their dividend generally they've raised their dividend

  • every year and then keep it that way for the full year

  • the only real exception was right here where they kept it about flat for about

  • two years so from a dividend perspective they seemed quite reliable now the

  • question is can they keep it up well one good way to tell is by looking at their

  • dividend payout ratio ideally we want this ratio to be as low as possible what

  • this ratio looks at is how much net income how much of net income did intel

  • payout in the form of dividends now you may notice that in q4 2017

  • there's no bar at all and this is because intel had a one time loss

  • according to US GAAP they lost money in that quarter

  • therefore the dividend they did pay out it was against a negative number so they

  • put zero here now as an analyst one of the first things I do when I see a one

  • time loss or gain is to look to see if it's really a one time thing and what's

  • the story behind it in Intel's case that was related to taxes and a did in fact

  • look like it was going to be only a one-time hit so as an analyst I would

  • typically add this number back and had it been a one-time gain while I was I

  • would have subtracted that number from earnings now that's how you end up with

  • a chart that looks like this the blue lines are US GAAP and the orange lines

  • are analyst adjustments and sometimes you can see that analyst adjust things

  • higher sometimes they just things lower now this brings me to a quick side note

  • when we switch this chart from net income to revenue we can see that both

  • analyst adjusted revenue and GAAP revenue are the same and this is true

  • almost all the time and that's because revenue is very hard to mess with you

  • either sold something or you didn't and you may hear it called the net revenue

  • and that they call it net because that's after products are returned so net

  • revenue accounts for products that are sold to the customer and the customer

  • keeps them once they return they get deducted from revenue and I think that

  • this is important because when we switch back to net income we can see how much

  • net income can be adjusted how much how much it can be messed around with now I

  • think there's lots of ways from management to move numbers around and I

  • each time that can have a big impact on things but our job as analysts is to try

  • to move them back to both make them more comparable to other companies and to get

  • a truer sense of what profits really look like

  • that's why generally you'll see me use adjusted earnings now another ratio you

  • can use to check the efficiency of the business is something called inventory

  • turnover basically inventory turnover looks at how many times inventory is

  • sold and replaced over whatever the period or whatever the time period is in

  • this case it's a year so as we could see the most

  • recent point is about 3.8 times and the higher the better for this ratio so the

  • fact that this ratio is declining for Intel tells us that Intel is selling

  • their products less quickly now another ratio that tells a similar story is

  • something called the cash conversion cycle this ratio tells us how many days

  • it takes for the company to convert inventory into cash now technically this

  • ratio includes inventory receivables and payables so the cash conversion cycle is

  • basically it says ok intel sold the product Intel collected the receivables

  • and then they paid their payables how long does it take to convert cash around

  • the loop again back to cash now I don't want to necessarily hold this rising

  • cash conversion cycle which is a bad thing by the way and I don't want

  • necessarily hold it against them and here's why this chart here shows the

  • breakdown of how cash conversion cycle is calculated the orange bars represent

  • 2017 where the cash conversion cycle was 87 days and the blue bars represent 2014

  • where the cash conversion cycle was about 51 days so inventory days are up

  • which tells us that the average days in inventory being held often this can tell

  • us that management is doing a good or a bad job of predicting whether or not

  • they're going to be able to sell their inventory so this being up is a bad

  • thing we want to see does this keep getting worse going forward and how much

  • worse we don't want management to be too bad at that because we don't them to

  • have to carry inventory for a long period of time then we have DSO which is

  • days of sales outstanding this measures how many days it takes the company to

  • collect the cash from their customers so if this number spikes it could imply

  • that management is loosening their payment policy maybe they made them pay

  • in 30 days before now they gave him 60 days well depending on the reason that

  • this is increasing that could mean something it could tell something about

  • the business in Intel's case it's only up slightly so I'm not too concerned

  • with it then for accounts payable turnover

  • it looks like Intel is paying their payables a bit faster now if you think

  • about it from a business perspective that's not too bad of a thing but from a

  • cash conversion cycle it's a negative thing

  • for the cash conversion cycle ideally what you want is you're barely holding

  • an inventory you could turn it over super fast you take a long long time to pay

  • your vendors and they pay you right away all your customers pay you right away

  • that being said what do we think that Intel's worth and given the business and

  • the the reliability of their discounted cash flow I think the reliability of

  • their free cash flow I think that using a discounted cash flow valuation is a

  • good method to use so for free cash flow we're using analyst estimates and we

  • have a WACC of nine percent a perpetual growth rate of two point five percent

  • which I think is a reasonable perpetual growth rate to use and we get a fair

  • value of about sixty dollars per share now if you're not sure how we came up

  • with these numbers I have links in the description below to different videos

  • that we made for this entire process so going back to Intel when we consider

  • that intel's current price is about forty nine dollars per share our $60

  • fair value estimate looks pretty good since that sixty dollars is more than

  • twenty percent away from the current price i think that when we go to put

  • together our portfolios it's likely that intel appears like it should end up in

  • the dividend portfolio the value portfolio based on the current price and

  • maybe the growth portfolio depending on how their efficiency ratios look at that

  • time i think it's something that we want to we want to monitor because i

  • don't want it to go too crazy for any extended period of time but what do you

  • think let me know what you think of intel and if you own intel already or if

  • you're considering buying it what does your research showing you

  • that's perhaps different from what our research has shown you do you think it

  • belongs in our portfolio let me know what you think of the comments below and

  • don't forget to hit the subscribe button and thanks for sticking with us all the

  • way to the end of the video and i'll see in the next video thanks

hey YouTube I'm Jimmy in this video I'm gonna walk through my analysis of the

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INTC股票--英特爾的股票是一個很好的買點嗎? (INTC Stock - is Intel's Stock a Good Buy)

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    alex 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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