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  • So let me with start with Roy Amara.

    譯者: Melody Tang 審譯者: 易帆 余

  • Roy's argument is that most new technologies tend to be overestimated

    讓我從羅伊·阿馬拉說起。

  • in their impact to begin with,

    羅伊的論點是,大多數的新技術

  • and then they get underestimated in the long term

    一開始的影響力往往被高估了,

  • because we get used to them.

    之後,時間久了, 它們的影響力就會被低估,

  • These really are days of miracle and wonder.

    因為我們已經習以為常。

  • You remember that wonderful song by Paul Simon?

    「這真是充滿奇蹟和驚奇的日子。」

  • There were two lines in it.

    各位還記得保羅·賽門的 這首好歌嗎?

  • So what was it that was considered miraculous back then?

    裡面有兩句歌詞。

  • Slowing down things -- slow motion --

    所以,在那個年代, 哪些事情會被視為是奇蹟呢?

  • and the long-distance call.

    讓事物慢下來的——慢動作——

  • Because, of course, you used to get interrupted by operators

    以及長途電話。

  • who'd tell you, "Long distance calling. Do you want to hang up?"

    沒錯,因為過去的你 經常被接線生打斷,

  • And now we think nothing of calling all over the world.

    他會告訴你:「長途電話喔, 您要先掛斷嗎?」

  • Well, something similar may be happening

    如今,與世界各地通話 我們已經習以為常。

  • with reading and programming life.

    是的,也許類似的事情也正發生在

  • But before I unpack that,

    生命密碼的解讀與編程上。

  • let's just talk about telescopes.

    但在我解說之前,

  • Telescopes were overestimated originally in their impact.

    我們先來談談望遠鏡。

  • This is one of Galileo's early models.

    望遠鏡的影響力一開始被高估了。

  • People thought it was just going to ruin all religion.

    這是伽利略早期的款式之一。

  • (Laughter)

    大家以為它會毀掉所有宗教。

  • So we're not paying that much attention to telescopes.

    (笑聲)

  • But, of course, telescopes launched 10 years ago, as you just heard,

    現在我們沒怎麼注意望遠鏡了。

  • could take this Volkswagen, fly it to the moon,

    不過,就如各位前幾天聽到的 十年前升空的(克卜勒)太空望遠鏡,

  • and you could see the lights on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.

    如果我們把這輛福斯汽車送到月球上,

  • And that's the kind of resolution power that allowed you to see

    你可透過那望遠鏡 看到福斯汽車車燈亮著。

  • little specks of dust floating around distant suns.

    其解析度能讓你看見

  • Imagine for a second that this was a sun a billion light years away,

    漂浮在遙遠太陽周邊的小黑點。

  • and you had a little speck of dust that came in front of it.

    想像這是十億光年外的一顆恆星,

  • That's what detecting an exoplanet is like.

    你可看到它前方的一個小塵埃。

  • And the cool thing is, the telescopes that are now being launched

    偵測系外行星就是像這樣。

  • would allow you to see a single candle lit on the moon.

    很酷的是,新近升空的望遠鏡

  • And if you separated it by one plate,

    可以讓你看到在月球上 一根點著的蠟燭。

  • you could see two candles separately at that distance.

    如果你放一個盤子在兩根蠟燭之間,

  • And that's the kind of resolution that you need

    你可以從這麼遠的距離 分別看到兩根蠟燭。

  • to begin to image that little speck of dust

    有了這樣的解析度,

  • as it comes around the sun

    你就可以開始成像

  • and see if it has a blue-green signature.

    圍繞在太陽周邊的小塵埃,

  • And if it does have a blue-green signature,

    看看是否有藍綠色的顏色。

  • it means that life is common in the universe.

    如果確實有藍綠色的顏色,

  • The first time you ever see a blue-green signature on a distant planet,

    就意味著,生命在宇宙中是普遍存在的。

  • it means there's photosynthesis there,

    你第一次在遠方的星球上 看到藍綠色的顏色,

  • there's water there,

    就表示那裡有光合作用,

  • and the chances that you saw the only other planet with photosynthesis

    那裡有水,

  • are about zero.

    除了地球外,你能在其它星球上 看到光合作用的可能性

  • And that's a calendar-changing event.

    幾乎是零。

  • There's a before and after we were alone in the universe:

    那是個劃時代的事件,

  • forget about the discovery of whatever continent.

    區分「宇宙中是否獨存人類」的前後,

  • So as you're thinking about this,

    別再想發現什麼新大陸了。

  • we're now beginning to be able to image most of the universe.

    當你們還在想這件事時,

  • And that is a time of miracle and wonder.

    我們現在已經可以 把大部分的宇宙成像出來。

  • And we kind of take that for granted.

    這是充滿奇蹟和神奇的時代。

  • Something similar is happening in life.

    我們也視為理所當然了。

  • So we're hearing about life in these little bits and pieces.

    類似的狀況也正發生在生命領域裡。

  • We hear about CRISPR, and we hear about this technology,

    我們零零碎碎地聽到 關於生命的資訊。

  • and we hear about this technology.

    我們聽說過 CRISPR 技術, 我們聽到這種技術,

  • But the bottom line on life is that life turns out to be code.

    我們聽到那種技術。

  • And life as code is a really important concept because it means,

    但生命的本質基本上就是編碼。

  • just in the same way as you can write a sentence

    用編碼來看生命是個非常 重要的概念,因為它的意義

  • in English or in French or Chinese,

    就像是你能夠寫出一段句子一樣,

  • just in the same way as you can copy a sentence,

    不論是用英文、法文或中文,

  • just in the same way as you can edit a sentence,

    就如同你可以複製一個句子一樣,

  • just in the same way as you can print a sentence,

    就像你可以編輯一個句子一樣,

  • you're beginning to be able to do that with life.

    就像你可以列印一個句子一樣,

  • It means that we're beginning to learn how to read this language.

    你也開始可以對生命做同樣的事。

  • And this, of course, is the language that is used by this orange.

    那就意味著,我們要開始學習 如何閱讀這種語言。

  • So how does this orange execute code?

    當然,這也是這顆柳橙的語言。

  • It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes like a computer does.

    所以,這顆柳橙如何執行程式?

  • It sits on a tree, and one day it does:

    它不能像電腦用 0 和 1 來執行。

  • plop!

    它待在樹上,有一天它會 :

  • And that means: execute.

    撲通掉下來!

  • AATCAAG: make me a little root.

    那就是:執行。

  • TCGACC: make me a little stem.

    AATCAAG 生根,

  • GAC: make me some leaves. AGC: make me some flowers.

    TCGACC 開枝,

  • And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.

    GAC 生葉,AGC 開花,

  • If I edit a sentence in English on a word processor,

    然後 GCAA 長出更多的柳橙果實。

  • then what happens is you can go from this word to that word.

    如果我用文字處理軟體 來編輯一段英文句子,

  • If I edit something in this orange

    就是從這個字改成那個字。

  • and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR or something else that you've heard of,

    如果我在這顆柳橙裡動些手腳,

  • then this orange becomes a lemon,

    用 CRISPR 或其它 你聽過的工具把 GCAAC 放入,

  • or it becomes a grapefruit,

    這個柳橙就會變成檸檬,

  • or it becomes a tangerine.

    或是變成葡萄柚,

  • And if I edit one in a thousand letters,

    或是變成橘子。

  • you become the person sitting next to you today.

    如果我編輯一千個字母中的一個,

  • Be more careful where you sit.

    你就會變成你身旁坐的那個人。

  • (Laughter)

    選座位的時候小心點。

  • What's happening on this stuff is it was really expensive to begin with.

    (笑聲)

  • It was like long-distance calls.

    事情是這樣的, 通常新的技術在一開始非常昂貴。

  • But the cost of this is dropping 50 percent faster than Moore's law.

    就像長途電話。

  • The first $200 full genome was announced yesterday by Veritas.

    但它的成本降低的速度 比摩爾定律還要快 50%。

  • And so as you're looking at these systems,

    昨天 Veritas 公司首推 200 美元的完整基因組定序服務。

  • it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter, and then it does.

    所以,當你在看這些系統,

  • So let me just give you the map view of this stuff.

    它無所謂,它無所謂, 它無所謂,接著,它有所謂了。

  • This is a big discovery.

    讓我用地圖的方式呈現給各位看。

  • There's 23 chromosomes.

    這是一項大發現。

  • Cool.

    這裡有 23 對染色體。

  • Let's now start using a telescope version, but instead of using a telescope,

    很酷。

  • let's use a microscope to zoom in

    我們現在開始從望遠鏡的視角, 但不是使用望遠鏡,

  • on the inferior of those chromosomes,

    而是用顯微鏡來放大

  • which is the Y chromosome.

    那些染色體中比較小的,

  • It's a third the size of the X. It's recessive and mutant.

    也就是 Y 染色體。

  • But hey,

    它的尺寸只有 X 的三分之一, 它是隱性的、突變的。

  • just a male.

    但,嘿,

  • And as you're looking at this stuff,

    只是個男性罷了。

  • here's kind of a country view

    看這個,

  • at a 400 base pair resolution level,

    這像是在看整個國家,

  • and then you zoom in to 550, and then you zoom in to 850,

    以 400 個鹼基對的解析度來看,

  • and you can begin to identify more and more genes as you zoom in.

    然後你放大到 550 個解析度, 然後你放大到 850 個解析度,

  • Then you zoom in to the state level,

    在你放大時,你就可以 開始識別越來越多的基因。

  • and you can begin to tell who's got leukemia,

    然後你放大到州的大小,

  • how did they get leukemia, what kind of leukemia do they have,

    你可以開始識別出誰有白血病,

  • what shifted from what place to what place.

    他們是怎麼得到白血病, 那是什麼樣的白血病,

  • And then you zoom in to the Google street view level.

    從什麼地方轉移到什麼地方。

  • So this is what happens if you have colorectal cancer

    然後你放大到像是 Google 街景的大小。

  • for a very specific patient on the letter-by-letter resolution.

    這就是你從某個患有 結直腸癌病人身上,

  • So what we're doing in this stuff is we're gathering information

    以字母解析度級別所看到的狀況。

  • and just generating enormous amounts of information.

    我們在這個方面做的是在收集訊息,

  • This is one of the largest databases on the planet

    以及生成非常大量的訊息。

  • and it's growing faster than we can build computers to store it.

    這是世界上最大的數據庫之一,

  • You can create some incredible maps with this stuff.

    而且它增長的速度比 我們建造電腦來存儲它還更快。

  • You want to understand the plague and why one plague is bubonic

    你可以用這些資料 創造出不可思議的地圖。

  • and the other one is a different kind of plague

    你想了解瘟疫,想了解為什麼 這個瘟疫是腺鼠疫,

  • and the other one is a different kind of plague?

    另一個是不同的瘟疫,

  • Well, here's a map of the plague.

    另一個又是不同的瘟疫?

  • Some are absolutely deadly to humans,

    這就是瘟疫的地圖。

  • some are not.

    有些對人類絕對致命,有些則否。

  • And note, by the way, as you go to the bottom of this,

    順便說一下, 當你追根究底要知道

  • how does it compare to tuberculosis?

    它與結核病相比會如何呢?

  • So this is the difference between tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,

    所以這就是結核病 和各種瘟疫之間的區別。

  • and you can play detective with this stuff,

    你可以像個偵探去探究,

  • because you can take a very specific kind of cholera

    因為你可以拿一種特定的霍亂,

  • that affected Haiti,

    例如影響了海地的那種,

  • and you can look at which country it came from,

    你可以看它來自哪個國家,

  • which region it came from,

    來自哪個地區,

  • and probably which soldier took that from that African country to Haiti.

    以及可能是哪個士兵把那個霍亂 從那個非洲國家帶到海地。

  • Zoom out.

    現在遠看,

  • It's not just zooming in.

    它不只能近看。

  • This is one of the coolest maps ever done by human beings.

    這是人類製作過的最酷的地圖之一。

  • What they've done is taken all the genetic information they have

    他們把所有物種的全部遺傳信息

  • about all the species,

    做成一株生命樹放在一頁上,

  • and they've put a tree of life on a single page

    你可以放大和縮小。

  • that you can zoom in and out of.

    看得到先是什麼,如何分化、分支,

  • So this is what came first, how did it diversify, how did it branch,

    該基因組有多大,

  • how large is that genome,

    全部以一頁呈現。

  • on a single page.

    像是地球上生命的宇宙,

  • It's kind of the universe of life on Earth,

    一直不斷被更新和匯齊。

  • and it's being constantly updated and completed.

    所以當你看著這個,

  • And so as you're looking at this stuff,

    真正重要的變化是

  • the really important change is the old biology used to be reactive.

    以前是被動的舊的生物學。

  • You used to have a lot of biologists that had microscopes,

    過去很多生物學家有顯微鏡,

  • and they had magnifying glasses and they were out observing animals.

    他們也有放大鏡,會去觀察動物。

  • The new biology is proactive.

    新的生物學要你主動出擊。

  • You don't just observe stuff, you make stuff.

    你不只觀察東西,還可以創造東西。

  • And that's a really big change

    那是一個非常大的變化,

  • because it allows us to do things like this.

    因為它使我們能夠做像這樣的事情。

  • And I know you're really excited by this picture.

    而且我知道你真的 對這張照片感到很興奮。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • It only took us four years and 40 million dollars

    我們花了四年時間和四千萬美元

  • to be able to take this picture.

    才拍到這張照片。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And what we did

    我們做的是

  • is we took the full gene code out of a cell --

    把一個細胞的基因代碼抽取出來——

  • not a gene, not two genes, the full gene code out of a cell --

    不是一個基因,兩個基因,而是 一個細胞中的完整基因代碼 --

  • built a completely new gene code,

    建立了一個全新的基因代碼。

  • inserted it into the cell,

    再將它植入細胞中,

  • figured out a way to have the cell execute that code

    找出一個可以讓細胞 執行該代碼的方法,

  • and built a completely new species.

    然後就創造了一個全新的物種。

  • So this is the world's first synthetic life form.

    所以這是世界上第一個 合成的生命形式。

  • And so what do you do with this stuff?

    那你能用這個技術做什麼呢?

  • Well, this stuff is going to change the world.

    好吧,這個技術將會改變世界。

  • Let me give you three short-term trends

    讓我告訴你們三個短期趨勢,

  • in terms of how it's going to change the world.

    理解它將如何改變世界。

  • The first is we're going to see a new industrial revolution.

    首先,我們將看到 一場新的工業革命。

  • And I actually mean that literally.

    我說的是真的,不誇張。

  • So in the same way as Switzerland and Germany and Britain

    所以就像瑞士、德國和英國

  • changed the world with machines like the one you see in this lobby,

    用你在大廳看到的機器 改變了世界一樣,

  • created power --

    創造能量。

  • in the same way CERN is changing the world,

    與歐洲核子研究中心 一樣的方式正在改變世界,

  • using new instruments and our concept of the universe --

    使用新儀器和我們對宇宙的概念。

  • programmable life forms are also going to change the world

    可編程的生命形式也將改變世界,

  • because once you can program cells

    因為一旦你可以編程細胞

  • in the same way as you program your computer chip,

    和你編程電腦晶片一樣,

  • then you can make almost anything.

    你幾乎可以做出任何東西。

  • So your computer chip can produce photographs,

    你的電腦晶片可以製作照片、

  • can produce music, can produce film,

    製作音樂、製作電影、

  • can produce love letters, can produce spreadsheets.

    製作情書以及製作電子表格。

  • It's just ones and zeroes flying through there.

    其運作原理就是一些 1 和 0 在晶片裡飛來飛去 。

  • If you can flow ATCGs through cells,

    如果你可以讓 ATCG 在細胞中流通,

  • then this software makes its own hardware,

    這個軟件就可以製作自己的硬體,

  • which means it scales very quickly.

    這意味著它擴展的速度非常快。

  • No matter what happens,

    無論發生了什麼,

  • if you leave your cell phone by your bedside,

    如果你將手機放在你的床邊,

  • you will not have a billion cell phones in the morning.

    你在早上不會有十億支手機。

  • But if you do that with living organisms,

    但如果你用活的生物體,

  • you can make this stuff at a very large scale.

    你可以大量製造。

  • One of the things you can do is you can start producing

    一件你可以在 2025 年以前做的事

  • close to carbon-neutral fuels

    就是以商業規模生產

  • on a commercial scale by 2025,

    接近碳中性的燃料。

  • which we're doing with Exxon.

    那是我們和埃克森美孚石油公司 正在合作進行的。

  • But you can also substitute for agricultural lands.

    你也可以用它來取代農田。

  • Instead of having 100 hectares to make oils or to make proteins,

    不是用 100 公頃的土地 來製油或蛋白質,

  • you can make it in these vats

    你可以在這些大桶裡做,

  • at 10 or 100 times the productivity per hectare.

    以每公頃 10 到 100 倍的產量來生產。

  • Or you can store information, or you can make all the world's vaccines

    你可以存儲資訊 或製作世界上所有的疫苗,

  • in those three vats.

    就在那三個大桶裡。

  • Or you can store most of the information that's held at CERN in those three vats.

    或者在那三個大桶裡存儲 歐洲核子研究中心的大部分資料。

  • DNA is a really powerful information storage device.

    DNA 真的是很強大訊息存儲設備。

  • Second turn:

    第二個趨勢是:

  • you're beginning to see the rise of theoretical biology.

    你會開始看到理論生物學的崛起。

  • So, medical school departments are one of the most conservative places on earth.

    所以,醫學院系是 地球上最保守的地方之一。

  • The way they teach anatomy is similar to the way they taught anatomy

    他們教解剖學的方式

  • 100 years ago.

    和 100 年前他們 教解剖學的方式相似。

  • "Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."

    「歡迎,同學,這是你的屍體。」

  • One of the things medical schools are not good at is creating new departments,

    醫學院不擅長創建新部門,

  • which is why this is so unusual.

    這是為什麼它很少見的原因。

  • Isaac Kohane has now created a department based on informatics, data, knowledge

    艾薩克·寇韓現在已經在哈佛醫學院

  • at Harvard Medical School.

    創建了一個基於訊息學、 數據和知識的部門。

  • And in a sense, what's beginning to happen is

    從某種意義上,開始要發生的是

  • biology is beginning to get enough data

    生物學開始會獲得足夠的數據

  • that it can begin to follow the steps of physics,

    可以開始追隨物理學發展的步伐,

  • which used to be observational physics

    物理學曾經是「觀測」物理

  • and experimental physicists,

    和「實驗」物理,

  • and then started creating theoretical biology.

    然後開始創建理論生物學。

  • Well, that's what you're beginning to see

    這就是你即將會看到的,

  • because you have so many medical records,

    因為你有這麼多的病歷紀錄,

  • because you have so much data about people:

    因為你所擁有的 有關人的數據如此之多:

  • you've got their genomes, you've got their viromes,

    有他們的基因組,有他們的病毒,

  • you've got their microbiomes.

    有他們的微生物群。

  • And as this information stacks,

    而從這個訊息庫,

  • you can begin to make predictions.

    你就可以開始做預測。

  • The third thing that's happening is this is coming to the consumer.

    第三件正在發生的是有關消費者的。

  • So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.

    現在你也可以對自己的基因做定序了。