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  • What you have here

    我拿著的

  • is an electronic cigarette.

    是一根電子香煙

  • It's something that's, since it was invented a year or two ago,

    它自從一兩年前被發明後

  • has given me untold happiness.

    已帶給我不可言喻的快樂

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,

    一小部分原因是尼古丁

  • but there's something much bigger than that.

    但還有更重要的原因

  • Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places,

    自從英國禁止在公共場所吸煙

  • I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.

    我就再也沒有享受過酒會了

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,

    我不久前才總結出個原因

  • which is when you go to a drinks party

    就是當你來到一場酒會

  • and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine

    站在那裡,手拿一杯紅酒

  • and you talk endlessly to people,

    口若懸河

  • you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.

    你可不願意一直講話

  • It's really, really tiring.

    那太累了

  • Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.

    有時候你只是想靜靜地站著想點事情

  • Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.

    有時候你只是想站在角落望著窗外

  • Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,

    問題來了——當你不能抽煙的時候

  • if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,

    如果你獨自一人站著並望著窗外

  • you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.

    你就是個沒朋友的社交白癡

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,

    如果你獨自站著望向窗外,拿著一根煙

  • you're a fucking philosopher.

    你就是個深沉的哲學家

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • So the power of reframing things

    所以說重新定義事物的威力

  • cannot be overstated.

    怎麼講都不會太誇大

  • What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,

    兩個完全一樣的東西、行為

  • but one of them makes you feel great

    其中一種讓你感覺良好

  • and the other one, with just a small change of posture,

    而另一種,只要稍作改變

  • makes you feel terrible.

    就能讓你感覺極差

  • And I think one of the problems with classical economics

    我認為古典經濟學的一個問題

  • is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.

    在於它過分關注現實

  • And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.

    但現實並非是通向人類幸福的好指南

  • Why, for example,

    比如說

  • are pensioners much happier

    為什麼領退休金的老人

  • than the young unemployed?

    比年輕失業者更快樂?

  • Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.

    畢竟二者的生活型態完全相同

  • You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.

    手上有太多時間,卻沒有多少錢可花

  • But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,

    但是退休老人據稱非常非常快樂

  • whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.

    而失業者則極度消沉及絕望

  • The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe they've chosen to be pensioners,

    我認為原因在於,退休老人相信這身份是自己選擇成為的

  • whereas the young unemployed

    而年輕失業者

  • feel it's been thrust upon them.

    卻感覺是被迫失業的

  • In England the upper middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,

    在英國,上層的中產階級已完美地解決這個問題

  • because they've re-branded unemployment.

    他們重新包裝了失業這回事

  • If you're an upper-middle-class English person,

    如果你屬於英國的上層中產階級

  • you call unemployment "a year off."

    你管失業叫「一年假期」

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester

    因為你兒子要是在曼徹斯特失了業

  • is really quite embarrassing,

    是一件蠻丟臉的事

  • but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand

    但如果你兒子是在泰國賦閒

  • is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.

    則是一項非凡的成就

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • But actually the power to re-brand things --

    事實上,重新包裝事物的威力是--

  • to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things

    瞭解到我們的經驗、花費、事物

  • don't actually much depend on what they really are,

    並不太取決於它們自身

  • but on how we view them --

    而是取決於我們如何看待它們

  • I genuinely think can't be overstated.

    我確實相信這威力不容小覷

  • There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to

    我記得Daniel Pink提到過一個實驗

  • where you put two dogs in a box

    你把兩隻狗關在箱子裡

  • and the box has an electric floor.

    箱子底部通電

  • Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor,

    不定時的給予電擊

  • which pains the dogs.

    讓狗受到痛苦

  • The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.

    唯一的不同是,其中一隻狗在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕

  • And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.

    當它用鼻子按那個按鈕電擊就停止了

  • The other dog doesn't have the button.

    另一隻狗沒有這個按鈕

  • It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,

    它感受到的電擊痛苦與前一隻狗完全相同

  • but it has no control over the circumstances.

    但它對局面沒有任何掌控

  • Generally the first dog can be relatively content.

    基本上,第一隻狗相對地滿足

  • The second dog lapses into complete depression.

    第二隻狗則陷入深深的絕望

  • The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness

    人生境遇對我們幸福的影響力

  • than the sense of control we feel over our lives.

    比不上我們對人生的控制感

  • It's an interesting question.

    這是個有趣的問題

  • We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world

    整個西方世界都在爭論

  • is about the level of taxation.

    稅收水準究竟該怎麼定

  • But I think there's another debate to be asked,

    但我認為另一個爭論應被提出

  • which is the level of control we have over our tax money.

    就是我們對稅款的控制程度

  • That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse.

    在某種情況下花的10英鎊可能是個詛咒

  • What costs us 10 pounds in a different context we may actually welcome.

    而在另一種情況下花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎

  • You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax towards health

    你知道,花費2萬英鎊稅金投資健康

  • and you're merely feeling a mug.

    你會感到自己是個冤大頭

  • Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward

    但花費2萬英鎊去捐贈一間醫院病房

  • and you're called a philanthropist.

    你會被稱作慈善家

  • I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.

    也許我在這個國家不適合談論納稅的意願

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters.

    所以作為補償我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要

  • Do you call it the bailout of Greece

    到底要稱作對希臘的緊急金援

  • or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece?

    還是稱作一堆愚蠢的銀行笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助?

  • Because they are actually the same thing.

    因為這兩種說法實際上是同一回事

  • What you call them actually affects

    你如何定調一個問題

  • how you react to them, viscerally and morally.

    會影響到你心理以及倫理上的反應

  • I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest.

    坦白說我認為心理價值非常重要

  • One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,

    我有一位很好的朋友Nick Chater教授

  • who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,

    在倫敦研究決策科學

  • believes that we should spend far less time

    他認為我們應該大大減少

  • looking into humanity's hidden depths

    探討人性隱藏深度的時間

  • and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.

    而把更多時間用在探索人性隱藏的膚淺上

  • I think that's true actually.

    我深深以為

  • I think impressions have an insane effect

    印象能夠強烈地影響

  • on what we think and what we do.

    我們的所想所為

  • But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology.

    但我們缺乏一個人類心理學的好模型

  • At least pre-Kahneman perhaps,

    至少可能在卡尼曼之前的年代

  • we didn't have a really good model of human psychology

    我們一直都沒有一個比較好的人類心理學模型

  • to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.

    以與工程學模型和新古典經濟學模型比肩

  • So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.

    因此那些相信心理學解釋的人們沒有可用的模型

  • We didn't have a framework.

    沒有理論框架可用

  • This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls

    這就是巴菲特的生意夥伴查理‧孟格所稱

  • "a latticework on which to hang your ideas."

    “一個用來懸掛你想法的格子框架”

  • Engineers, economists, classical economists

    工程師、經濟學家、古典學派經濟學家

  • all had a very, very robust existing latticework

    都有一個非常強有力的現有理論框架

  • on which practically every idea could be hung.

    用來準確定位任何一個相關想法

  • We merely have a collection of random individual insights

    心理學卻只有一些隨機的個人見解

  • without an overall model.

    但缺乏整體的理論框架

  • And what that means is that in looking at solutions,

    這就意味當我們尋求解決方案時

  • we've probably given too much priority

    我們太過側重於

  • to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,

    工程學方面的、牛頓思維的辦法

  • and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.

    而對心理學方向的關注遠遠不足

  • You know my example of the Eurostar.

    你們都知道我那個關於歐洲之星的例子

  • Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time

    六百億英鎊花在將巴黎與倫敦

  • between Paris and London by about 40 minutes.

    之間的車程縮短40分鐘

  • For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains,

    但只要花這筆錢的1%你可以讓列車有WiFi網路

  • which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,

    這雖然不會縮短旅程的時間

  • but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefullness far more.

    但會大大增加旅程的樂趣和用途

  • For maybe 10 percent of the money,

    用這筆錢的10分之1

  • you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels

    你就能請到全世界的男女超級名模

  • to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers.

    在走道上向所有旅客分發免費的波得路堡葡萄酒

  • You'd still have five [million] pounds in change,

    你還能剩下50億英鎊

  • and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

    旅客還可能會要求列車減速

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Why were we not given the chance

    我們為什麼從未嘗試

  • to solve that problem psychologically?

    從心理學的角度來解決問題?

  • I think it's because there's an imbalance, an asymmetry,

    我想這是因為我們對待以下兩種思維方式是不平衡、不對稱的

  • in the way we treat creative, emotionally-driven psychological ideas

    一種是創造性的、情緒引導的心理學思維方式

  • versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.

    另一種理性的、數據的、報表引導的思維方式

  • If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly,

    如果你是一個創造性的人

  • you have to share all your ideas for approval

    你必須將自己的想法分享給

  • with people much more rational than you.

    更理性的人,獲得他們的批准

  • You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis,

    你必須給出一個成本收益分析

  • a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.

    一個可行性研究投資回報率分析之類的東西

  • And I think that's probably right.

    這也許沒有錯

  • But this does not apply the other way around.

    但當情況反過來時卻是行不通的

  • People who have an existing framework,

    那些已有理論框架

  • an economic framework, an engineering framework,

    經濟學框架、工程學框架

  • feel that actually logic is its own answer.

    認為邏輯是自身的答案

  • What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up,

    他們不會說:“數字看來是沒錯

  • but before I present this idea, I'll go and show it to some really crazy people

    但我要在報告這個想法之前我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人

  • to see if they can come up with something better."

    看他們能不能有更好的想法。”

  • And so we, artificially I think, prioritize

    所以我們人為地

  • what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.

    將機械化思維置於心理學思維之上

  • An example of a great psychological idea:

    這裡有個關於心理學解決方案的絕佳例子:

  • The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction on the London Underground per pound spent

    倫敦地鐵花錢在改善乘客滿意度上最好的措施

  • came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains,

    並不是增加列車數量或者改變行班間距

  • they put dot matrix display board on the platforms.

    而是在月臺上放置了顯示營幕

  • Because the nature of a wait

    由於等待的特性

  • is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration,

    並不完全取決於等待時間的長度

  • but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.

    而是取決於你等待時所感受不確定性的程度

  • Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock

    在計時器的倒計時中等待7分鐘

  • is less frustrating and irritating

    其間的沮喪和煩躁遠低於

  • than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting

    只等了四分鐘,但咬著手指不斷逼問

  • going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?"

    這該死的車什麼時候才來?

  • Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution deployed in Korea.

    韓國也有個很棒的心理學解決方案

  • Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.

    紅燈時有倒數計時

  • It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.

    這在實驗中被證實能夠降低事故發生率

  • Why? Because road rage, impatience and general irritation

    為什麼?因為交通上的憤怒、不耐和焦躁

  • are massively reduced when you can actually see the time you have to wait.

    在你能清楚看到剩下的等待時間時被大大降低

  • In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,

    在中國,不知為何

  • they applied the same principle to green traffic lights.

    他們在綠燈的時候運用同樣方法

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Which isn't a great idea.

    這可不是個好主意

  • You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go, you floor it.

    你離路口還有200碼遠看到綠燈還剩5秒,就直接衝過去

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.

    韓國人很嚴謹的測試了兩種情況

  • The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;

    給紅燈倒計時,事故率降低

  • it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.

    而給綠燈倒計時,事故率則上升

  • This is all I'm asking for really in human decision making,

    我呼籲人們在做決策時

  • is the consideration of these three things.

    考慮這三個方面(投影:技術、心理、經濟)

  • I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.

    它們的重要性不分先後

  • I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,

    我只是希望當你解決問題時

  • you should look at all three of these equally

    同等重要地考慮以下這三個要素

  • and you should seek as far as possible

    你應盡可能地

  • to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.

    去找尋匯聚三者的完美解決方案

  • If you actually look at a great business,

    如果你實際去評估一家好公司

  • you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.

    你幾乎都會看到這三個方面的作為

  • Really, really successful businesses --

    貨真價實的成功企業

  • Google is great, great technological success,

    Google是成功的科技公司

  • but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:

    但它同時反映出非常好的心理學洞見

  • People believe something that only does one thing

    人們相信專注於一種業務的公司

  • is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.

    在此種業務上要比多樣化的公司做得更出色

  • It's an innate thing called goal dilution.

    這種固有的信念叫做目標稀釋

  • Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.

    阿耶萊-費斯巴赫寫了一篇關於這件事的論文

  • Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,

    Google出現時的其他同業公司

  • was trying to be a portal.

    都在努力成為入口網站

  • Yes, there's a search function,

    的確,他們有搜索功能

  • but you also have weather, sports scores, bits of news.

    但也有天氣預報、體育賽事比分、一點新聞報導

  • Google understood that if you're just a search engine,

    Google明白如果你僅僅是一個搜尋引擎

  • people assume you're a very, very good search engine.

    人們會假定你是非常好的搜尋引擎

  • All of you know this actually

    你們所有人

  • from when you go in to buy a television.

    在買電視的時候都深刻體會到這點

  • And in the shabbier end of the row of flat screen TVs

    在那排平板電視最後的破爛角落裡

  • you can see are these rather despised things called combined TV and DVD players.

    有一種備受冷落的機器叫電視與DVD組合播放機

  • And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,

    你對這種東西的品質一無所知

  • but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.

    但我們眼看這電視與DVD播放器的組合就會觀感很差

  • It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."

    覺得這可能是爛電視和爛DVD播放機的組合吧

  • So we walk out of the shops with one of each.

    所以我們走出商店時會分別買這兩種機器

  • Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.

    Google在心理學方面的成功和技術上的成功同樣重要

  • I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems

    我提議我們可以用心理學來解決

  • that we didn't even realize were problems at all.

    那些我們甚至不認為是問題的問題

  • This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.

    我有個幫助人們完成抗生素療程的建議

  • Don't give them 24 white pills.

    不要給他們24顆白色藥片

  • Give them 18 white pills and six blue ones

    給他們18顆白色藥片和6顆藍色藥片

  • and tell them to take the white pills first and then take the blue ones.

    告訴他們先吃白的,再吃藍的

  • It's called chunking.

    這叫做組塊化

  • The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater

    人們堅持到最後的可能性大大增加

  • when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.

    因為中途有個里程碑

  • One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics

    我想經濟學一個顯著的錯誤

  • is it fails to understand that what something is,

    就是沒有認知到某個事項

  • whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost,

    無論是退休、失業,還是花費

  • is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.

    都不僅是作用或是數據更具有心理意義

  • This is a toll crossing in Britain.

    在英國有個收費站

  • Quite often queues happen at the tolls.

    通常在收費站都要排隊

  • Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.

    有時候甚至大排長龍

  • You could apply the same principle actually, if you like,

    如果你願意,可以採取

  • to the security lanes in airports.

    與機場安檢同樣的方法

  • What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money to cross the bridge,

    要是你要繳納兩倍的過橋費才能快速通過

  • but go through a lane that's an express lane?

    那會發生什麼情況?

  • It's not an unreasonable thing to do. It's an economically efficient thing to do.

    這可不是無理要求而是一個經濟上高效率的做法

  • Time means more to some people than others.

    時間的價值對某些人比其他人更高

  • If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,

    如果你要去參加求職面試

  • you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.

    你顯然願意花多幾英鎊走快速通道

  • If you're on the way to visit your mother in-law,

    如果你是要去見岳母