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  • America's economy is approaching a big milestone.

    美國經濟即將迎來重要的里程碑。

  • If it keeps humming until July 2019, it will be the longest expansion in U.S. history.

    如果持續發展,到 2019 年 7 月就會是美國歷史上最久的成長期。

  • It would be exactly one decade and one month old by then.

    屆時剛好是 10 年又 1 個月。

  • But there's another country with an even more impressive run.

    但有另一個國家有更讓人印象深刻的發展。

  • Australia hasn't had a recession in 27 years.

    澳洲已經 27 年沒有發生經濟衰退了。

  • It's even called the 'lucky country'

    它甚至被譽為「幸運的國家」。

  • Three big lessons from Australia.

    澳洲的三大課題是:

  • Be smart. Be organized. Be lucky. So if I've got any advice

    要聰明。要有條理。還要有好運。所以如果要我給

  • for other countries, it's try and be as lucky as Australia.

    其他國家建議的話,就是嘗試,並且像澳洲一樣幸運。

  • That luck has to do with Australia's treasure trove of natural resources : iron ore, gas and coal.

    澳洲的幸運之處,就是擁有寶貴的天然資源:鐵礦、天然氣還有煤礦。

  • You know Australia is on the other side of the world

    你知道澳洲位在世界的另一邊,

  • and sitting on tremendously valuable minerals right at the point where the Chinese economy is just around the corner and exploding.

    並富有豐富的礦物資源,就在中國經濟起飛蓬勃發展之時。

  • Australia and all its natural resources were in the right geographic neighborhood just as the Chinese economy started to take off.

    在中國經濟起飛之際,澳洲和它的天然資源有地緣優勢。

  • And it just so happens that China did a big fiscal stimulus in 2008

    中國於 2008 年開始大力刺激經歷

  • and spent a great deal of money building new cities.

    並投入大量資金興建城市。

  • So all of those resources were drawn from places like Australia.

    所有的資源都從各地輸入,例如從澳洲。

  • So that also served as a huge tailwind at a time when developed markets were in a whole lot of trouble.

    已開發市場身處水深火熱之中時,這確實是很大的助力。

  • The year 2008 was a time of economic turmoil.

    2008 年是經濟混亂的時期。

  • The Global Financial Crisis hit and markets crumbled around the world.

    全球經濟危機爆發導致世界市場崩潰。

  • But as it turns out this was also a year for Australia's economic management to really show off.

    但這也是澳洲經濟管理模式真正大展身手的一年。

  • At the time the government had a very helpful and very low level of debt.

    當時政府負債極低,這是非常有幫助的現象。

  • One reason?

    原因是什麼?

  • Pension reform in the 1990s.

    1990 年代的退休金改革。

  • Australia set up a compulsory retirement system called the superannuation system.

    澳洲設置了強制性的退休制度叫做退休金系統。

  • It requires employers put money into its employees' retirement savings.

    它要求雇主把錢存入員工的退休存款中。

  • Australia's superannuation assets top $2.8 trillion dollars as September 2018.

    2018 年 9 月澳洲的退休金資產高達 2.8 兆美元。

  • Since companies and citizens have to build up retirement savings,

    由於公司行號和居民必須有退休存款,

  • some of the financial burden to pay off pensions was taken off of Australia's government.

    澳洲政府與退休金有關的財務負擔就比較少了。

  • As other economies reeled in the wake of the 2008 crisis, the Australian Government was then able to put money directly into people's bank accounts.

    當其他國家正苦苦等待 2008 危機後的復甦,澳洲政府已經能夠直接將錢存入人民的銀行帳戶。

  • This boosted consumer spending in order to stimulate growth.

    這加速了消費者花錢並刺激經濟成長。

  • In 2008, the Australian Government unlike some

    2008 年澳洲政府不像某些

  • other developed market governments actually jumped in very quickly with fiscal stimulus,

    已開發市場的政府,立即著手進行經濟刺激,

  • so that helped to kind of minimize the effect of the crisis.

    這在某種程度上降低了經濟危機的影響。

  • The country's numbers continued to look sluggish after the financial crisis.

    經濟危機之後澳洲的經濟數據看起來沒有大幅好轉。

  • But they never quite dipped low enough

    但它們從沒有像衰退的定義那樣低

  • or for long enough to meet the definition of a recession.

    或處於低處過久。

  • It takes two quarters of negative growth to fall into a recession.

    要達到衰退的定義,必須有連續兩季處於負成長。

  • Australia's economy did post a few negative quarters since 2008, but no country's perfect.

    澳洲的經濟自 2008 年以來確實曾有過幾季較差的表現,但沒有任何國家是完美的。

  • Overall Australia's economy has been managed pretty well in recent years partly because of a strong and stable central bank.

    整體來說近年來澳洲經濟維持得很不錯,一部份的原因是強健穩定的中央銀行。

  • Australia has an independent central bank and it's

    澳洲有獨立的中央銀行,它是

  • a very well-run central bank.

    受到妥善經營的中央銀行。

  • It also has a floating exchange rate and the exchange rate helped it adjust to international shocks.

    它有浮動匯率,這有助於針對國際影響作出調整。

  • Australia's economic reforms gave it flexibility in times of hardship.

    澳洲的經濟改革有助於在困難的時期保有彈性。

  • For example, floating the Australian dollar.

    例如,讓澳元處於浮動匯率。

  • In 1983, Australia's government moved the dollar onto a floating exchange rate.

    1983 年澳洲政府將澳元改成浮動匯率。

  • This meant that the dollar would be valued by supply and demand

    這表示澳元的價值將取決於供需,

  • instead of being subject to influence from its government or its central bank.

    而非受到政府或中央銀行的影響限制。

  • It allows the economy to react to shocks as well

    這項政策讓澳洲經濟得以應付衝擊。

  • Typically when an economy is hit by some sort of

    特別是經濟受到負面衝擊

  • negative shock, the currency will adjust.

    影響的時候,貨幣會有所調整。

  • It will depreciate and that helps promote exports.

    貨幣會貶值,這有助於推動出口。

  • So it really serves as a buffer.

    所以這就像是一個緩衝器。

  • Another reason behind Australia's economic track record lies in its immigration policy.

    澳洲經濟記錄背後的另一個原因是移民政策。

  • Since the late 1990s, Australia has seen growth in

    自 1990 年代後期以來,澳洲便見證

  • temporary migration, many arriving to the country on student or temporary work visas.

    暫時的移民浪潮,許多人持有留學或暫時工作簽證而來到這個國家。

  • The number of temporary migrants peaked in the year 2000.

    暫時性移民的數字在 2000 年達到高峰。

  • However a recent change to immigration law in 2018

    然而 2018 年移民法律有了改變,

  • gave visa applicants more hurdles to get

    讓申請簽證的人有更多困難,

  • through if they wanted to come to the country.

    如果他們想要來這個國家。

  • Even when our GDP per capita

    我們的人均 GDP,

  • average incomes aren't rising by much because the

    平均收入並沒有明顯增加,因為

  • number of people continues to rise that means the total

    人口數也持續上升,這表示整體

  • GDP continues to rise at even more rapid pace.

    GDP 持續以更快的速度上升。

  • Immigration is one of the key reasons that Australians are used to talking about economic growth rates of 3 percent or 4 percent.

    過去澳洲人常常談到經濟成長率有 3 或 4 %,主要原因之一就是移民。

  • Part of that's underpinned by much faster population growth

    其中一部分是受到人口快速成長的支持。

  • Most experts think Australia's economy remains strong in 2019, but it's not without risks.

    大部分的專家認為澳洲經濟在 2019 年依然強健,但並非沒有風險。

  • Australia's suffering at the moment from pretty weak wage growth.

    澳洲現處於薪資成長緩慢的困境中。

  • That's worrying a lot of people.

    很多人擔心這個狀況。

  • There's a lot of fear right now that China is hitting a wall.

    現在很多人擔心中國發展面臨瓶頸。

  • That will hit demand for Australian products.

    這會影響它對澳洲產品的需求。

  • The good news is to the extent that the Chinese are buying commodities

    好消息是希望中國人購買商品的地方

  • hopefully will find buyers from overseas for many of those commodities

    會為那些商品找到海外買家,

  • if the Chinese are not there.

    如果中國人購買澳洲產品。

  • The bad news is the rest of the world economy is not doing that well.

    壞消息是世界其他地方的經濟目前都不太好。

  • For Australia to do really well, the rest of the world has to do well.

    如果澳洲經濟要維持良好,世界其他地方必須處於好的狀態。

America's economy is approaching a big milestone.

美國經濟即將迎來重要的里程碑。

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為什麼澳洲幾十年來沒有出現過經濟衰退? (Why Australia Hasn't Had A Recession In Decades)

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    Tanya Chang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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