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  • Asia-Pacific currencies have been on a wild ride since the start of the year.


  • On the worst day, the Australian dollar slumped by more than 3 percent in a matter of minutes, as investors were spooked by economic data from China.

    在表現最糟的一天,澳幣在數分鐘之內就暴跌了 3%,因為中國的經濟數據大大的震驚了許多投資客。

  • A fresh stream of positive events, from China resuming trade talks with the US to the Federal Reserve's comments on interest rates, has given some support to the Aussie dollar and other Asian currencies.


  • But dark clouds loom on the horizon, leading investors to question what lies ahead for the Australian currency.

    但是前景並不樂觀,導致許多投資者開始懷疑澳幣的未來究竟會如何發展 ?

  • Is it time to short the Aussie dollar?

    是時候該賣出手上的澳幣了嗎 ?

  • China's economy is slowing, and that is bad news for Australia, which is a key exporter of commodities to the world's second largest economy.


  • China shocked the market when it revealed that exports and imports fell sharply in December.

    當中國透露國家進出口於 12 月大幅下滑時,震驚了整個市場。

  • Imports of iron ore also fell for the first time since 2010, dealing a blow to commodity exporters.

    鉻鐵礦的進口也自 2010 年來有了第一次的下滑,對貨物出口國造成了嚴重的打擊。

  • Australia's exposure to the fortunes of China suggests the currency is set for a rocky ride in 2019, but a recent spate of stimulus to prop up the Chinese economy should provide some support.

    由澳洲仰賴中國財富上所形成的財務風險中可看出,澳幣的走勢在 2019 年勢必是會相當顛簸的,不過最近中國一連串的經濟刺激措施或許能作為緩衝。

  • If you want to know what is going to happen to Asian currencies, you need to pay attention to the US dollar.


  • And that means listening to Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell.

    也表示你該聽聽美國聯邦儲備委員會主席 Jay Powell 怎麼說。

  • With the muted inflation readings that we've seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves.


  • Australia's obsession with property has helped fuel a multi-decade boom, and in Sydney and Melbourne at least, prices are among the most expensive in the world.


  • But last year, they started to turn.


  • The Reserve Bank of Australia has expressed concern, asking banks to build up their capital buffers.


  • The risk is that property prices slump, leaving banks exposed.


  • That would hurt the economy and, in turn, the Aussie dollar, especially as economic growth is already slowing.


  • All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of Australia, and whether it will cut rates to fire up the economy or keep its powder dry.


Asia-Pacific currencies have been on a wild ride since the start of the year.


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雲霄飛車般的澳幣走勢 (Wild ride for the Aussie dollar)

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    Liang Chen 發佈於 2019 年 03 月 03 日