Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

已審核 字幕已審核
  • So I'm a professional poker player,

    我是一個專業的撲克玩家

  • and today, I want to talk about three things that the game has taught me

    今天,我想和大家分享撲克比賽教會我的三件事

  • around decision-making that I find apply to everyday life.

    適用於日常生活的決策

  • Now the first of these things is about luck.

    首先,第一件事就是運氣

  • Now, like poker, life is also a game of skill and luck,

    人生就像撲克比賽需要運氣和技巧

  • and when it comes to the biggest things we care about --

    當說到我們最在乎的事情是 --

  • health, wealth and relationships --

    健康、財富和人際關係 --

  • these outcomes don't only depend on the quality of our decision-making,

    這些結果不只取決於我們做的決定

  • but also the roll of life's dice.

    也會被人生的骰子影響

  • For example, we can be perfectly health-conscious

    舉個例子,我們很注重身體健康

  • and still get unlucky with something like cancer.

    但仍然遇到不幸的事情像是癌症

  • Or we can smoke 20 a day and live to a ripe old age,

    或是我們每天抽 20 根菸,然後過著晚年生活

  • and this kind of ambiguity can make it hard for us to know

    因此有時這些不明確的事情造成我們

  • how good our strategies are, sometimes,

    很難理解這些策略有多好用

  • especially when we're experiencing a lot of success.

    尤其是當我們經歷成功時

  • For example, back in 2010,

    舉例來說,回顧 2010 年

  • I won a really big poker tournament known as the European Poker Tour.

    我在歐洲撲克錦標賽獲得勝利

  • And because I'd only been playing full-time for about a year,

    因為我當全職玩家大約一年

  • when I won, I assumed I must be rather brilliant.

    然後就贏了,所以我覺得我一定很聰明

  • In fact, I thought I was so brilliant

    事實上,我以為我很聰明

  • that I not only got rather lazy with studying the game,

    以至於我不僅懶散於研究比賽

  • but I also got more risky,

    而且我還冒了更大風險

  • started playing in the biggest tournaments I could

    我開始參加更大型的撲克錦標賽

  • against the very best in the world.

    我可以與世界上最厲害的高手對決

  • And then my profit graph went from a thing of beauty

    然後我的利潤圖從高峰

  • to something kind of sad,

    跌落下來

  • with this worrying downhill trend for a long time,

    長期存在這令人擔心的下降趨勢

  • until I finally realized that I was overestimating my skill level,

    直到最後我終於明白我太高估自己的能力

  • and got my act together.

    然後同時改變行為

  • And this kind of reminds me of what we've been seeing

    這讓我回想到在 2017 年我們在

  • in the cryptocurrency space, at least in 2017,

    加密貨幣領域看到的

  • where the only thing that's been going up faster than the markets themselves

    唯一比市場還快速成長的是

  • is the number of "senior investment specialists"

    「高級投資專家」的數量

  • who have been appearing out of nowhere.

    他們無所不在

  • Now I'm not saying it's not possible to have a strategic edge,

    所以我不會說不可能有策略優勢

  • but at the same time, it's very easy to feel like a genius

    但同時當你在快速成長的市場裡

  • when you're in a market that's going up so fast

    即使是最差的策略也會獲利

  • that even the worst strategies are making a profit.

    因此你會很容易認為自己是個天才

  • So when we're experiencing success,

    所以當我們經歷成功時

  • it's important to take a moment to really ask ourselves

    我們要真正地問自己有多少是靠自己的真實力

  • how much of it is truly down to us,

    這是很重要的

  • because our egos love to downplay the luck factor when we're winning.

    因為當我們獲勝時,我們的自負喜歡淡化運氣的因素

  • Now, a second thing poker taught me

    撲克教會我的第二件事是

  • is the importance of quantifying my thinking.

    量化我的思想的重要性

  • When you're playing, you can't just get away with going,

    當你在比賽時,你不能隨便離開

  • "Eh, they're probably bluffing."

    「啊!他們可能是虛張聲勢。」

  • That's just going to lose you a bunch of money,

    這將會讓你輸掉一大筆錢

  • because poker is a game of probabilities and precision,

    因為撲克就是概率和精確度的比賽

  • and so you have to train yourself to think in numbers.

    所以你必須訓練自己用數字思考

  • So now, whenever I catch myself

    現在不論何時我都會

  • thinking vaguely about something really important, like,

    模糊地思考一些很重要的事情,像是

  • "It's unlikely I'll forget what I want to say in my TED Talk,"

    「我不可能會忘記我在 TED Talk 要說的話。」

  • I now try to estimate it numerically.

    現在我試著用數字評估

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Trust me, it helps a lot with the planning process.

    相信我,這對你規劃過程有很大的幫助

  • And the thing is, almost anything that could possibly happen here today,

    還有幾乎任何事情都有可能在今天發生

  • or at any point in the future,

    或是在未來的某個時間點

  • can also be expressed as a probability, too.

    也可以被解釋為一種可能性

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • So now I also try to speak in numbers as well.

    所以現在我也試著用數字說話

  • So if someone asks me,

    假如有人問我

  • "Hey, Liv, do you think you're going to come along to that thing tonight?"

    「嘿 Liv,你覺得你今晚會去做那件事嗎?」

  • instead of just saying to them, "Yeah, probably,"

    我不會對他們說:「可能會吧!」

  • I actually give them my best estimate --

    我會確實地給他們最佳的評估 --

  • say, 60 percent.

    說:「60%。」

  • Because -- I know that sounds a little odd --

    我知道這聽起來有點怪

  • but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter

    但我在 Twitter 做了一個投票

  • of what people understand the word "probably" to mean,

    大家對「可能」這個詞的意思了解

  • and this was the spread of answers.

    然後這是廣泛的答案

  • Enormous!

    極大的!

  • So apparently, it's absolutely useless

    顯然地這對要確實地傳達

  • at actually conveying any real information.

    任何真實的訊息是絕對沒用的

  • So if you guys catch yourselves using these vague words,

    如果你們用含糊不清的詞來表達

  • like "probably" or "sometimes,"

    像是「可能」或「有時」

  • try, instead, using numbers, because when we speak in numbers,

    試著用數字代替,因為當我們用數字說話

  • we know what lands in the other person's brain.

    我們知道對方腦中的想法

  • Now, the third thing I want to touch on today is intuition.

    我今天要談的第三件事情是直覺

  • How often have you seen these kinds of inspirational memes

    在你們的 Facebook 裡

  • in your Facebook feed?

    你有多常看到這類鼓舞人心的箴言?

  • [Always trust your gut feeling and never second-guess.]

    「永遠相信你的直覺,永遠不要猜測。」

  • They're nice, right?

    說得很好,對吧?

  • It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."

    真可愛,「相信你的靈魂。」

  • Well, they're terrible advice.

    嗯 ... 這些事很糟糕的建議

  • These are some of the best poker players in the world right now.

    這些是現在世界上最厲害的撲克玩家們

  • Do they look like people who live purely off feelings and intuitions?

    你覺得他們看起來是純粹靠著感性和直覺嗎?

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Look at them!

    看看他們!

  • Obviously, these guys are about slow, careful analysis,

    顯然地,這些玩家都是採取緩慢且謹慎分析

  • and that's because the game has outgrown the days

    因為比賽已經超越

  • where pure street smarts and people-reading

    純粹的街頭智慧和閱讀

  • can get you to the top.

    就可以讓你到達高峰的日子

  • And that's because our intuitions aren't nearly as perfect

    那是因為我們的直覺並不像

  • as we'd like to believe.

    我們想的那麼完美

  • I mean, it'd be great, whenever we're in a tough spot,

    每當我們處於困境時,我們從

  • to just have an answer appear to us from some magical source of inspiration.

    神奇的靈感來源中找到答案是很棒的事情

  • But in reality, our gut is extremely vulnerable

    但實際上,我們的直覺容易受到

  • to all kinds of wishful thinking and biases.

    各種一廂情願和偏見的影響

  • So then, what is our gut good for?

    那麼我們的直覺有什麼好處?

  • Well, all the studies I've read

    我看過的研究裡

  • conclude that it's best-suited for everyday things

    總結來說它最適合用在日常生活

  • that we have lots and lots of experience in,

    因為我們有很多經驗

  • like how we just know that our friend is mad at us

    像是在我們對他們說任何事情前

  • before we've even said anything to them,

    我們如何知道朋友會對我們生氣

  • or whether we can fit our car into a tight parking spot.

    或我們是否可以將汽車停放在狹窄的停車位

  • But when it comes to the really big stuff,

    但當提及到重要的事情

  • like what's our career path going to be

    像是未來我們的職涯道路怎麼走

  • or who should we marry,

    或是我們應該和誰結婚

  • why should we assume that our intuitions

    為什麼我們應該認為我們的直覺

  • are better calibrated for these than slow, proper analysis?

    會比緩慢且精準地分析的更好?

  • I mean, they don't have any data to be based off.

    我的意思是直覺沒有任何數據根據

  • So my third lesson is, while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,

    所以我的第三課是雖然我們不應該忽略我們的直覺

  • we shouldn't overprivilege them either.

    但我們也不應該過度依賴它

  • And I'd like to summarize these three lessons today

    我想要用我作為撲克玩家的經歷

  • with my own set of memes,

    和自己創造的箴言

  • with more of a poker-player twist.

    為今天的三堂課做總結

  • "Success is sweetest when you achieve it across a large sample size."

    「當你付出越多而得到的成功,會是最甜密的。」

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • "Your gut is your friend and so is a cost-benefit analysis."

    「你的直覺和成本效益分析都是你的朋友。」

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • "The future is unknown, but you can damn well try and estimate it."

    「未來是未知的,但你可以勇於嘗試和評估。」

  • Thank you.

    謝謝

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

So I'm a professional poker player,

我是一個專業的撲克玩家

字幕與單字
已審核 字幕已審核

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

A2 初級 中文 美國腔 TED 直覺 玩家 比賽 數字 笑聲

【TED】麗芙.波莉: 撲克牌冠軍下決策的三點領悟 (3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion | Liv Boeree)

  • 8423 480
    林宜悉 發佈於 2018 年 11 月 09 日
影片單字