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  • - [Narrator] Principles For Success,

    - [旁白] 成功的原則

  • an ultra mini-series adventure

    - 超迷你係列冒險節目

  • in 30 minutes and in eight episodes.

    - 8集一共30分鐘

  • Episode Four:

    第四集:

  • The Abyss

    深淵

  • We progress forward until we encounter setbacks.

    我們一直前進,直到遭遇挫折

  • Whether or not we get out of them

    我們是否能夠克服這些挫折

  • and continue forward or spiral downward

    是繼續前行抑或是螺旋下墜

  • depends on whether or not we're willing

    完全取決於我們是否願意

  • to face the failure objectively

    客觀地面對失敗

  • and make the right decisions to

    並且做出正確的選擇

  • turn the loop upward again.

    以回歸正軌

  • Something terrible happened to me in 1982,

    1982年發生了一件可怕的事情

  • when I bet everything on a depression

    當我將一切都賭在

  • that never came.

    未曾出現的經濟蕭條上時

  • (dramatic orchestral music)

    1972到1982年這段時間

  • (birds chirping)

    是極端動蕩的時期

  • The period between 1979 and 1982

    對於全球經濟

  • was one of extreme turbulence.

    巿場

  • For the global economy,

    以及我來說都一樣

  • the markets,

    我相信美國經濟

  • and for me.

    以及與其捆綁的世界經濟

  • And I believed that the U.S. economy,

    正在走向災難

  • with the world economy tied to it,

    這個觀點極具爭議性

  • was headed toward a catastrophe.

    我想要大量獲利

  • This view was extremely controversial.

    並且非常公開地承擔了巨大風險,結果我錯了

  • I wanted the great upside

    犯了致命的錯誤

  • and very publicly took a big risk and was wrong.

    短暫的延遲後

  • Dead wrong.

    股市開始了歷時18年的

  • After a delay,

    一個大牛市,也是美國經濟

  • the stock market began a big bull market

    歷史上增長最快時期

  • that lasted 18 years and the U.S. economy

    這段經歷

  • enjoyed the greatest growth period in its history.

    就像棒球棒給我腦袋的重擊

  • (birds chirping) This experience was

    我只好減少虧損

  • like a blow to my head with a baseball bat.

    讓我的公司橋水

  • I had to cut my losses

    留下唯一一名員工:

  • so that my company, Bridgewater,

    那就是我

  • was left with one employee:

    我破產得非常徹底,我不得不向從父親那裡借來

  • Me.

    4000美元以償還我的償務

  • (door slams shut)

    但更糟糕的,我不得不讓

  • I was so broke, I had to borrow $4,000

    我所關心的人離開

  • from my dad to pay my bills,

    我不知道是否應該放棄自己為自己工作的理想

  • but even worse was having to let go

    找一條平穩的道路

  • the people I cared so much about.

    選擇為別人打工

  • I wondered whether I should give up my dream

    找一份需要我每天帶上領帶

  • of working for myself and play it safe

    和通勤上班的工作

  • by working for someone else in a job

    然而我知道

  • that would require me to put on a tie

    減少風險意味著擁有

  • and commute every day.

    不太美好的生活

  • Though I knew that, for me,

    犯下這個錯誤

  • taking less risk would mean having

    犯下如此巨大的錯誤,特別是在眾目睽睽之下

  • a less great life.

    是一種痛苦的恥辱

  • Being so wrong,

    直到今日我依然為自己的

  • and especially being so publicly wrong,

    自大感到驚訝和尷尬

  • was painfully humbling.

    竟然如此自信於

  • I am still shocked and embarrassed

    一個完全錯誤的觀點

  • by how arrogant I was

    雖然我對多錯少

  • in being totally confident

    但我讓一個錯的賭注抹殺了我所有的好

  • in a totally incorrect view.

    我非常努力地思考風險和收益的關係

  • (dramatic orchestral music)

    以及如何管理它們

  • Though I'd been right much more than I'd been wrong,

    但卻找不到好的方法

  • I had let one bad bet erase all my good ones.

    能夠在獲得收益的同時規避

  • I thought very hard about the relationship

    無法承受的風險

  • between risk and reward and how to manage them,

    每個人都會有類似的經歷

  • but I couldn't see a path forward

    也將發生在你身上

  • that would give me the rewards I wanted

    你會失去賴以生存的

  • without unacceptable risk.

    某件東西或某個人

  • This kind of experience happens to everyone.

    或者會遭受可怕的疾病和傷害

  • It will happen to you.

    又或者會親眼目睹你事業的崩塌

  • You will lose something or someone

    你可能會認為你的生活已經毀了

  • you think you can't live without.

    而且沒有辦法前進

  • Or you will suffer a terrible illness or injury.

    但它會成為過去

  • Or your career will fall apart before your eyes.

    我向你保證

  • You might think that your life is ruined

    前方總有一條最好的路

  • and that there's no way to go forward,

    只是你還沒有發現到

  • but it will pass.

    你需要做的只是好好反思,去尋找那條最好的路

  • I assure you

    你必須擁抱自己眼前的現實

  • that there is always a best path forward

    在第五集,我將向你們展示

  • and you probably just don't see it yet.

    上述想法是如何引導我去理解現實的運作方式

  • You just have to reflect well to find it.

    以及最好的應對之策

  • You have to embrace your reality.

  • In Episode 5, I'll show you how this

  • realization drove me to wonder how reality works

  • and how to best deal with it.

- [Narrator] Principles For Success,

- [旁白] 成功的原則

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成功的原則。"深淵" 第四集 (Principles for Success: "The Abyss" | Episode 4)

  • 187 15
    Wong Charles 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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