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  • The United States has more than $21 trillion in national debt. Let's try and wrap our heads around just how much money that is.

    美國國債超過 21 兆美元,讓我們試著弄懂這筆可觀的數字

  • Firstly, what's a trillion? A trillion is 1 thousand billion, or 1 followed by 12 zeros.

    首先,一兆是多少?一兆是一千個十億,也就是 1 後面加 12 個零

  • That's a big number, so let's break it down.

    這可是筆天文數字!我們來簡化一下

  • If we assume you are a millionaire and you have all your money in $1,000 bills,

    假設你是一位百萬富翁,且你的財產都是面額 1000 塊的紙鈔

  • that's 1,000 of them to make up your millionand if you stacked the bills on top of each other,

    那你總共會有 1000 張,如果你把它們疊起來,

  • that stack would be just over 4 inches high. You'd be pretty happy!

    那一疊大約是 4 英吋多一點,很高興吧!

  • Now let's say you had 1,000 of those stacks making you a billionaire. The cash would now be 358 feet tall,

    那假設你有 1000 疊 1000元紙鈔,你就會變成億萬富翁,現金疊起來

  • which is roughly the height of a 35-story building. And what if you had a thousand of those stacks,

    大概會跟一棟 35 層的大樓一樣高;如果你有 1000 疊這種高度的紙鈔,

  • making you a trillionaire? Well then your cash stack would be 67.9 miles high,

    就會變成身價上兆的富翁,現金疊起來大概是 67.9 英里,

  • which is more than 9 times the height that a commercial airline flies.

    比民航機的飛航高度還高 9 倍以上

  • Now that's just 1 trillion dollars and the US debt is a cool 21 trillion. In today's episode of The Infographics Show,

    這還只是一兆美元,美國國債可是有 21 兆!今天的節目

  • we're going to be looking at: What Would Happen If The US Defaulted On Its Debt?

    就要帶大家來看看,如果美國倒債會發生什麼事?

  • You don't just wake up one day and find yourself owing a stack of money that would stretch to the moon.

    一疊高到可以碰到月球的紙鈔不是在一夕之間變出來的

  • It takes a lot of spending. 50 years ago, the US national debt was around $350 billion

    它背後是大筆支出,曾經美國國債約為 3500 億,

  • and the 1 trillion mile-stone was not reached until the early 1980's.

    直到 1980 年代初期才達到一兆元的里程碑

  • But that's still a big jump to arrive at today's 21 trillion. With big tax cuts,

    但距離今日的 21 兆元還很遠,原因有稅率大減、

  • spending on things such as war, and then with economic stimulus packages, it all adds up.

    戰爭的支出、刺激景氣措施,這些通通累積成國債

  • The debt rises because if the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes,

    國債之所以增加,是由於當美國政府花費金額比納稅收入高,

  • then it needs to make up the shortfall by selling US Treasury bonds to investors.

    就必須把國庫債券賣給投資人,以填補金流缺口

  • These investors are typically other countries.

    所謂的投資人通常是其他國家

  • So what's defaulting all about? When a country defaults on its debt, it's called a sovereign default.

    那倒債又是什麼?當一國選擇不履行其債務,就會構成主權債務違約

  • If the US were to default, it would essentially stop paying the money it owed to the investors of the US Treasury bonds.

    倘若美國倒債,基本上它就不會再還錢給那些購買美國債券的投資人

  • There's a lot of speculation online about what would happen if the US stopped making these payments,

    網路上有很多關於美國不還債以後會發生什麼事的揣測,

  • and though many of the major media outlets have run features exploring this question,

    就連主流媒體也嘗試探討這個議題,

  • no one really knows exactly what would take place.

    但是沒有人能確實預測會發生什麼事情

  • The general consensus is that world markets would plunge and global interest rates would be considerably hitched up.

    大家普遍認為全球市場會陷入低谷,外幣匯率也會急速上升

  • And of course the impact would be felt by the US's creditors

    當然美國債權人也會遭受波及──

  • those other countries, who are owed the money.

    也就是那些美國欠錢的債權所有國

  • Let's take a look at 5 potential knock on effects, that would occur as a result of the US defaulting on its debt.

    我們來看看如果美國倒債,可能會引發的五項連鎖反應

  • Depression and unemployment - The Treasury and Federal Reserve, would make their way

    經濟衰退與失業──財政部與聯準會將別無選擇,

  • through banks and eventually blow a hole through the Main Street economy.

    從銀行下手進而傷害主街經濟

  • The unemployment rate would rise and huge amounts of uncertainty would take center stage.

    失業率將上揚,動盪不安的感受將盤據整個社會

  • The stock market would suffer, with stock prices falling, as investors fled to other countries for safer stock or gold investments.

    投資者轉向他國以降低投資風險或選擇投資黃金,股價因此下跌、股市受挫

  • Recession would be on the economic horizon.

    經濟蕭條便在不遠的未來等待著

  • Public service disruptionThere would be no money to pay salaries or benefits for

    擾亂公共服務──國家資金將不足以支付薪水或津貼給

  • federal or military personnel and retirees, social security recipients, Medicare bills,

    聯邦政府員工、軍人、退休人士或社會津貼補助對象;醫療支出、

  • student loans, tax refunds, and payments to keep government facilities open.

    學生貸款、退稅、政府設施運作費用等都會變得無法負擔,

  • The result would create a great deal of disruption and unrest across the American public.

    造成美國民眾的不安,甚至引發社會動亂

  • Effect on Business - A U.S. debt default would significantly raise the cost of doing business.

    對企業的衝擊──美國若倒債將大幅提升企業成本

  • Companies would have to pay higher interest rates on loans and bonds to compete with the higher interest rates of the U.S. Treasury.

    在美國財政部拉高利率的情況下,公司也必須負擔貸款與債券的高利率才能與之競爭

  • There would be price increases on goods and services and rising inflation.

    貨品與服務的價錢都會上揚,通貨膨脹也隨之加劇

  • Business would suffer and as a result there would be higher unemployment.

    當企業表現不佳,失業率又會更上升

  • US Dollar ImpactThere would be mass selling of the U.S. dollar, an event that

    衝擊美國貨幣──美金將會被大量拋售,

  • would threaten the greenback's status as the world's reserve currency.

    可能會威脅美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位

  • Prices for everyday commodities would go up, our groceries, clothes, and fuel, all would rise.

    日用品價格上升──我們的雜貨、衣服、石油都會變得更貴,

  • And we'd be saying goodbye to low mortgage rates.

    低利率房貸也將成為過去式

  • All of this would affect buying patterns, which again would further impact the economy.

    這些都會影響消費模式,進而對經濟造成衝擊

  • Global Markets ImpactedThe US economy has far reaching impact so

    全球市場受到影響──由於美國經濟對世界市場影響深遠,

  • it would not only be the homeland where the effects would be felt. According to CNN Money,

    受到衝擊的將不只是美國本土,根據 CNN Money 的報導,

  • who referenced treasury numbers in a 2016 feature, foreign nations hold just over 32% of the US debt.

    它引用 2016 年財政部的統計數字,發現外國資金佔美國國債的比例約為 32% 多一點

  • The list is long but China and Japan stand out with over 50% of the 32%. As an example,

    債權國很多,但其中中國與日本在這 32% 裡又佔了超過一半的比例,舉例來說,

  • Japan owns about $1.14 trillion. This is equivalent to 20% of its annual economic output and

    日本擁有約 1.14 兆的債務金額,這大約是日本一整年 20% 的經濟產出,

  • would shake the Japanese economy for sure.

    顯然美國倒債將動搖日本經濟

  • This speculation is all fascinating, we hear you say, but do we have anything to base the assumptions on?

    我們了解這些揣測聽起來不錯,但是否有理論根據呢?

  • Let's look at a real example in another country. The most recent debt crisis was in Greece in 2015.

    讓我們以另一個國家作為借鏡,前不久希臘在2015 年陷入債務危機,

  • The country formally defaulted on a $1.7 billion payment to the International Monetary Fund in Athens.

    希臘政府宣布不會履行 17 億美元的債務;位於雅典的國際貨幣基金組織介入

  • Nowhere near a trillion, but it was still hugely disruptive to this Balkan tourist destination.

    數目離一兆還差得遠,但仍然嚴重衝擊這個巴爾幹觀光勝地

  • The Guardian ran an article last year, looking at the effects of the Greek default.

    英國衛報去年寫了篇文章分析希臘倒債的後果,

  • They referenced a study by the DiaNeosis thinktank, which found that

    衛報引用了希臘智庫 DiaNeosis 的研究成果,發現

  • in 2015, 15% of the population, or 1.6 million people, earned below the extreme poverty threshold,

    在 2015 年,15% 的人口,也就是 160 萬人的所得低於極端貧窮線;

  • when 6 years previously, in 2009, that number did not exceed 2.2%.

    相較於六年前的 2009 年,只有 2.2% 的人口低於該所得水準

  • And according to the Bank of Greece, the net wealth of Greek households fell by a staggering 40% in the same period.

    在同一時期,根據希臘銀行的統計,希臘家戶淨所得大幅減少了 40%

  • Though unemployment has recently dropped, it is still the highest in the European Union at 22%.

    雖然失業率已有所下降,希臘的 22% 還是所有歐盟國家中最高的

  • What did this mean to an everyday Greek person? One example is Chryssa Christodoulaki,

    對希臘老百姓這意味著什麼?我們以 Chryssa Christodoulaki 為例,

  • a French-trained hairdresser had paid into a pension fund for almost 45 years.

    她是一位在法國受訓的美髮師,45 年來她都獲得政府退休金補助

  • Her pension started out at €1,750 a month. Then it was cut to €1,430 a month, and then cut again to €960 a month.

    從一開始一個月 1750 歐元被減到 1430 歐元,又再一次被扣到剩 960 歐元

  • It's not a pretty picture, but then how realistic is the prospect of the US defaulting on its debt?

    這不是大家樂見的情形,那美國倒債的景況又包含多少真實性呢?

  • From everything we researched, it certainly seems highly unlikely.

    從我們做的每一項研究來看,這幾乎是不可能的事情

  • One reason is that all U.S. government debt is denominated in U.S. dollar assets,

    其中一項理由是美國國債有美元資產額作後盾,

  • but a more intriguing reason the US would apparently never default, in the words of Alan Greenspan, an American economist

    但美國經濟學家 Alan Greenspan 提供了一個更值得探究的理由

  • who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006,

    Alan Greenspan 在 1987 至 2006 年間曾擔任聯準會主席

  • is that "The United States can pay any debt it has because it can always print money to do that.

    他表示:「美國還得起任何債務,因為政府隨時可以印出鈔票來應付,

  • So there is zero probability of default." We're not entirely sure how true that is,

    因此不履行債務的機率是零。」我們不確定這話有多可信,

  • but it's certainly an interesting idea to consider.

    但這的確是令人玩味的理論

  • So, what do you think would happen if the US defaulted on its debt? War? Famine?

    那你認為美國倒債會造成什麼後果?戰爭?饑荒?

  • The Apocalypse? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

    還是世界末日?在留言區裡告訴我們吧!

  • Also, be sure to check out our other video called How is Life Different for Billionaires?! Thanks for watching,

    也別忘了去看看這部影片:億萬富翁的生活有多麼不同?!謝謝觀賞

  • and, as always, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. See you next time!

    同時也別忘了幫我們的影片按讚、分享、訂閱頻道,下回見!

The United States has more than $21 trillion in national debt. Let's try and wrap our heads around just how much money that is.

美國國債超過 21 兆美元,讓我們試著弄懂這筆可觀的數字

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 美國 希臘 債務 富翁 衝擊 經濟

如果美國停止償還債務會怎樣? (What Would Happen If USA Stopped Paying Its Debt?)

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    Arissa Wang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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