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  • I love airplanes.

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

  • Oh -- I love airplanes.

    我愛飛機。

  • So, when I went to college in the late 90s,

    喔——我愛飛機。

  • it was obvious that I was going to study aerospace.

    所以,九十年代末當我上大學時,

  • And you wouldn't believe how many people told me,

    很顯然我要讀的就是航太系。

  • "Oh no, not aerospace.

    你不會相信有多少人告訴我,

  • Aerospace is going to be boring,

    「喔,不,不要唸航太。

  • everything in aerospace has already been done."

    航太會很無聊,

  • Well, they were a little bit off the mark.

    航太中的一切都已經有人做了。」

  • And in fact, I think the next decade

    嗯,他們有一點偏離了目標。

  • is going to be another golden age for aviation.

    事實上,我認為接下來十年

  • For one thing, and this is where I get excited,

    會是航太的另一個黃金時期。

  • flight is about to get a lot more personal.

    一則,這也是讓我很興奮的一點,

  • So, a little compare and contrast.

    飛行將會變的更個人化許多。

  • In the last century,

    所以,來做一點比較和對比。

  • large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.

    在上個世紀,

  • And 100 years ago,

    大型商用飛機連結了全球的城市。

  • it would have been unthinkable for all of us

    一百年前,

  • to fly here from around the world for a five-day conference.

    我們所有人都難以想像

  • But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.

    從世界各地飛來這裡 參加爲期五天的大會。

  • And that's a remarkable achievement for humanity.

    但我們就這麼做了, 且大部分人都覺得理所當然。

  • But on a day-to-day basis, we still spend a lot of time in cars.

    那是人類很了不起的成就。

  • Or actively trying to avoid it.

    但在日常生活中, 我們還是花很多時間在車上。

  • Some of my best friends live in San Francisco,

    或者主動避免花時間在車上。

  • I live in Mountain View, about 40 miles away.

    我有一些最好的朋友住在舊金山,

  • We're all busy.

    我住在山景城,相距約 40 英哩。

  • At the end of the day,

    我們都很忙。

  • we're separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.

    到頭來,

  • So frankly, we haven't seen each other in a few months.

    我們被兩小時的 擁塞交通分隔開來。

  • Now, I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.

    坦白說,我們已經幾個月不見了。

  • And there are actually days when I can leave work,

    我工作的地點在聖荷西市中心, 很靠近機場。

  • get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles

    其實有些日子我可以離開工作崗位,

  • faster than I can drive to San Francisco.

    坐上飛機,飛到洛杉磯,

  • Cities are only getting more populated,

    比我開車到舊金山還快。

  • the roads are full, and it's really difficult to expand them.

    城市只會人口越來越多,

  • And so in a lot of places,

    道路已經滿了,很難再做什麼擴充。

  • there really aren't a lot of good solutions

    所以,在許多地方,

  • for getting around traffic.

    其實沒有什麼好的解決方案

  • But what if you could fly over it?

    可以避開交通流量。

  • The sky is underutilized,

    但如果你能飛越它呢?

  • and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.

    天空還沒有被充份利用,

  • First of all, you've got a whole other dimension,

    且我認為天空永遠都不可能 會像道路這麼擁塞。

  • but also just safety considerations and air-traffic management

    首先,你會多一個維度,

  • will not allow bumper-to-bumper traffic in the sky.

    但安全考量以及空中交通管理

  • Which means, in many cases,

    不會允許空中出現一台 緊接一台的行進方式。

  • flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative

    也就是說,在許多情況下,

  • to traveling on the ground.

    飛行會是一種吸引人的 長期替代方案,

  • So imagine this:

    取代地面行進。

  • you call an Uber, it takes you to a nearby landing spot --

    所以,想像一下:

  • we call these vertiports --

    你可以用 Uber 叫車, 帶你到附近的降落地點——

  • there's an airplane waiting for you there,

    我們稱之為垂直升降機場——

  • flies you over all of the traffic in the middle,

    在那裡有一架飛機等著你,

  • and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend's house.

    帶你飛過中間的繁忙交通,

  • And I said Uber,

    在另一頭,有另一台 Uber 的車 載你去你朋友家。

  • but I really think we need to congratulate the Lyft branding team

    我說 Uber,

  • for their forward thinking in choosing their brand.

    但我認為我們得要祝賀 Lyft 的品牌命名團隊,

  • (Laughter)

    在命名時就已經想到未來。 (註:Lift 有升起的意思)

  • So in that example,

    (笑聲)

  • OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.

    在那個例子中,

  • But it's 30 minutes versus two hours,

    好,我承認還有額外的幾步要走。

  • it costs around 60 dollars,

    但這差別是半小時比上兩小時,

  • and you get to fly.

    成本大約是 60 美金,

  • We're not there yet,

    你就能用飛的。

  • but we are a lot closer than you might think.

    我們還沒辦到,

  • So one of the first things we need

    但已經比你想像的還要接近成功。

  • is we need an aircraft that can take off and land in small spaces

    我們首先需要的東西之一,

  • and quickly take you where you want to go.

    是我們需要一台 能在小空間起降的飛行器,

  • And helicopters can do that today,

    能快速帶你到你想去的地方。

  • but traditionally, helicopters have been just a little bit too expensive,

    現今直升機就可以做到這一點,

  • just a little too hard to pilot

    但傳統的直升機太貴了一點,

  • and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities.

    且有點太難駕駛,

  • Well, electric flight and autonomy are changing that.

    還有點太吵,不適合 用在城市內的日常交通上。

  • Electric flight, in particular,

    電動飛行和自主性可以改變那一點。

  • unlocks new possibilities for vehicle configurations

    特別是電動飛行,

  • that we just could not explore in the past.

    為運載工具的結構帶來新的可能性,

  • If you use electric motors,

    是我們過去無法想像的。

  • you can have many of them around the aircraft,

    若用的是電動馬達,

  • and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.

    你可以在飛行器上裝很多台,

  • And that gives you redundancy and safety.

    也不會增加太多額外的重量。

  • And also, they are cleaner, cheaper and quieter

    讓你有餘裕以及安全性。

  • than internal combustion engines.

    此外,它們也比內燃式引擎

  • Autonomy allows the transportation network to scale,

    更乾淨、便宜、安靜。

  • and I actually think it makes the aircraft safer.

    自主性讓交通網絡能夠延展,

  • Commercial flights are already automated for most of their duration,

    且我確實認為它能讓飛行器更安全。

  • and I believe there will come a day

    商業飛行的航程有很大一部分 都已經是自動化的了,

  • when we won't even trust an airplane that required a human to fly.

    我相信將來會有一天,

  • So, one of our teams at A3

    我們甚至不會信任 由人類駕駛的飛機。

  • wanted to see just how close this future really was.

    所以,我們在 A3 的其中一個團隊

  • So they built and flew a prototype of one such vehicle.

    想要看看這個未來到底有多近。

  • And they made a point of only using

    所以他們打造了 一台這種原型機並做了試飛。

  • mature, commercially available technologies today.

    而且他們主張只使用

  • We call it Vahana.

    現今已成熟且可做為 商業用的技術。

  • It's fully electric.

    我們稱它為瓦哈納(Vahana) (注:印度教中神靈的坐騎)。

  • It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.

    它是完全電動的。

  • It's fully self-piloted.

    它會垂直起降, 但像一般飛機一樣向前飛行。

  • You push a button, it takes off, flies and lands, all by itself.

    它完全是自動駕駛。

  • The prototype that you see here

    你按一個按鍵,它就會升空、 飛行、降落,完全自動化。

  • is designed to carry a single passenger and luggage.

    各位在這裡看到的原型機

  • And it can go about 20 miles in 15 minutes.

    是設計來載一名乘客及行李用的。

  • And our estimate for a trip like that is it would cost around 40 dollars,

    它在 15 分鐘內可飛行 20 英哩。

  • which you can really build a business around.

    我們估計,像這樣的行程, 成本大約是 40 美金,

  • It has multiple redundant motors and batteries,

    這真的是有商機的。

  • you can lose one, it will continue flying and land normally.

    它有數個多餘的馬達和電池,

  • It's pretty quiet.

    就算一個壞了,仍然可以 繼續飛行並正常降落。

  • When it's flying overhead, it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.

    它很安靜。

  • It's intelligent and has cameras, lidar and radar,

    它從上方飛過時,比高速公路上的 Prius(油電混合車)還安靜。

  • so it can detect and avoid unexpected obstacles.

    它有智慧,配有攝影機、 雷射雷達、雷達,

  • And the team really focused on making it efficient,

    它能偵測到並避開未預期的障礙物。

  • so the batteries are small, light, and they last longer.

    且研發團隊非常著重在它的效能,

  • For reference, the Vahana battery

    所以電池很小、很輕、很持久。

  • is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery.

    供各位參考,瓦哈納的電池

  • It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.

    大小還不到 Tesla Model S (電動車)電池的一半。

  • And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.

    它的功率約 40 千瓦小時。

  • And I do think that in a few years,

    電池是熱插拔式的, 只要幾分鐘即可完成。

  • people will be comfortable getting by themselves

    我確實認為,在幾年之後,

  • in a self-piloted, electric, VTOL air taxi.

    大家就會很自在地搭乘

  • But the team is busy working on the next version,

    自動駕駛、電動、 垂直起降的空中計程車。

  • which is going to carry at least two passengers

    但研發團隊在忙著做下一個版本,

  • and fly quite a bit farther.

    這個版本將至少可容納兩名乘客,

  • But more importantly, there are over 20 companies around the world

    且能飛得更遠一點。

  • working on vehicles just like this one right now.

    但,更重要的是, 全世界有超過 20 間公司

  • My best guess is in the next five years,

    現在都投入資源 在做這類的運載工具。

  • you'll start seeing vertiports in some cities,

    我的最佳揣測是,在接下來五年,

  • and little airplane icons on your ride-sharing apps.

    就會在一些城市中 看見垂直升降機場,

  • And it might begin with a dozen,

    手機上也出現 飛機圖示的共乘 app。

  • but eventually, we could have hundreds of these,

    一開始可能只有十幾台,

  • flying around our cities.

    但最終,我們會有數百台,

  • And it will fundamentally transform our relationship with local travel.

    在城市各處飛行。

  • In the past century, flight connected our planet,

    它會從根本上轉變 我們和當地旅程的關係。

  • in the next, it will reconnect our local communities,

    在過去一個世紀,飛行連結了地球。

  • and I hope it will reconnect us to each other.

    在下一個世紀, 飛行將會重新連結當地社區,

  • Thank you.

    我也希望它會讓我們 重新和彼此連結。

  • (Applause)

    謝謝。

  • Chris Anderson: OK, so when these things first roll out --

    (掌聲)

  • right now, it's a single person aircraft, right?

    克里斯安德森:所以, 當這些東西最早推出時——

  • Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes.

    現在,它只是單人乘坐的 飛行器,對吧?

  • CA: Yours is.

    羅定萊索夫: 我們的這款,是的。

  • I mean, someone comes out of their car,

    克:你們的那款是。

  • the door opens, they get in, there's no one else in there.

    我的意思是,人們下了車,

  • This thing takes off.

    門打開來,他們走進去, 裡面沒有其他人。

  • Could we do a poll here?

    這東西就起飛了。

  • Because these are early adopters in this room.

    我們能在此做個調查嗎?

  • I want to know who here is excited

    因為在這裡的人 都是會先採用的人。

  • about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying --

    我想要知道,誰很興奮

  • Well, there you go!

    想要看到這個單人 自動飛行的點子實現——

  • RL: It's pretty good.

    嗯,答案揭曉!

  • CA: That is pretty awesome,

    羅:挺不錯的。

  • half of TED is completely stark staring bonkers.

    克:很了不起。

  • (Laughter)

    TED 有一半的人都是瘋子。

  • RL: So, one of the things we're really focusing on

    (笑聲)

  • is, really, the cost.

    羅:我們很著重的其中一點,

  • So you can really wrap a business around that.

    就是成本。

  • And so, that's why some of the features are really driven by price.

    這樣才能真正有商機。

  • And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we're aiming for.

    這就是為什麼有些特色 是以價格為考量。

  • Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one.

    我們的目標是在上面 掛上 $40 的價格標籤。

  • CA: The biggest blockage in terms of when this rolls out

    這樣應該能讓比這裡的觀眾 還大很多的族群來使用。

  • is probably not the technology at this point -- it's regulation, right?

    克:就何時要推出的 層面來說,在這個時點

  • RL: That's probably true, yes, I would agree with that.

    最大的阻礙可能不是技術—— 而是法規,對吧?

  • The technology need to mature in terms of safety,

    羅:很可能是如此, 是的,我同意。

  • to get to the safety levels that we expect from aircraft.

    在安全方面,技術必須要很成熟,

  • But I don't think there are any blockers there,

    才能達到我們期望 這台飛行器具有的安全性。

  • just work needs to get done.

    但我不覺得這方面有任何阻礙,

  • CA: So, first, this is ride sharing.

    只是等著我們去做。

  • Are we that far away from a time

    克:所以,首先,這是共乘。

  • when lots of people have one of these in their garage

    我們是否很快就能看到

  • and just kind of, go direct to their friend's house?

    許多人在自家車庫 就有一台這種飛行器,

  • RL: My personal view is that ride sharing actually allows you to operate

    類似就可以直接飛到 他們的朋友家去?

  • that entire business much more efficiently.

    羅:我個人的看法是, 共乘其實會讓你能夠

  • You know, there are millennials that say they never want to own a car.

    更有效率地營運這整個事業。

  • I think they'll probably feel even stronger about aircraft.

    你知道的,有些千禧世代的人 說他們這輩子都不會買車。

  • So --

    我想,對於飛行器 他們的感受可能會更強烈。

  • (Laughter)

    所以——

  • I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better

    (笑聲)

  • as a ride-sharing platform,

    我真的認為共乘平台的形式, 會讓這個網絡

  • also because the integration with air-traffic management

    延展和營運得更好,

  • works a lot better if it's handled centrally.

    還有一個原因, 空中交通管理的整合,

  • CA: Cool. Thank you for that.

    若能集中處理,會能做得比較好。

  • RL: Thank you. CA: That was amazing.

    克:很棒。非常謝謝你。

I love airplanes.

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 飛行器 飛機 交通 共乘 電池

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