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  • 0.4 seconds.

    0.4 秒。

  • That's the time it takes you to blink.

    那是你眨一次眼睛的時間。

  • It's also about how long goalkeepers have to save a penalty kick or fail trying.

    這也是守門員能否守住一個十二碼罰球僅有的時間。

  • And it's certainly not enough time for a goalie to react and respond.

    一個守門員要立即反應和做出回應,這點時間肯定是不夠的。

  • So goalies can't solely rely on their speed and agility to save a penalty kick.

    所以守門員不能單靠他們的速度和靈敏度來擋下十二碼罰球,

  • Instead they have to pretty much guess which direction to go and rely on either luck or game theory.

    相反地,他們必須猜測球會從哪個方向來,靠運氣或是靠博弈理論賭一下。

  • [Why penalty kicks are so unfair to the goalies]

    [為什麼罰球對守門員來說不公平]

  • Game theory is a popular strategy in economics where the outcome of a situation relies more on how well you predict your opponent's actions than how you perform your own.

    博弈論是一種流行的經濟學策略,意思是說,在某一種情境下,其結果的產生是出自於你如何預測對手的行為,而不是靠你自己想怎麼做。

  • So since the goalie has no choice but to guess, they're better off guessing logically than randomly.

    所以既然守門員別無選擇只能用猜的,最好是有邏輯性地猜,不是亂猜。

  • That's where economists come in.

    這正是經濟學家們發揮功能的時候。

  • I would like to know what you do in the last 80 penalty kicks you faced?

    我想知道你是如何處理過去面臨的 80 次十二碼罰球?

  • Do you have any tendencies?

    你有一定的方式如何處理嗎?

  • What does this guy do against right-footed kickers versus left-footed kickers?

    這傢伙如何面對右腳踢球者和左腳踢球者?

  • That's economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta.

    這是經濟學家 Ignacio Palacios-Huerta。

  • He studied over 11,000 penalty kicks, and in 2008 during the UEFA Champions League Final, it paid off, sort of.

    他研究了超過 11,000 次十二碼罰球,並且在 2008 年歐洲冠軍聯賽決賽期間獲得一些回報。

  • It was Manchester United against Chelsea.

    那是曼徹斯特聯隊對陣切爾西隊,

  • The game came down to a penalty shootout which was the perfect opportunity for Chelsea to put Huerta's advice into action.

    這場比賽最後要由罰十二碼球定勝負,這是切爾西隊將 Huerta 的建議加以印證的絕佳機會。

  • Along with several pointers Huerta had given Chelsea's goalie a key insight about Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

    除了幾個提示以外,Huerta 還給了切爾西隊守門員一個關於曼聯球星 Cristiano Ronaldo 的關鍵性的分析。

  • Ronaldo would almost certainly kick the ball to the right if he paused on the run-up.

    如果 Ronaldo 在起腳前會停頓一下,那麼他幾乎肯定會把球踢向右邊

  • And the advice worked.

    結果這些建議奏效了,

  • Ronaldo indeed paused and indeed kicked the ball to the right.

    Ronaldo 確實停頓了一下,也確實將球踢向右邊。

  • Chelsea's goalie followed Huerta's advice and made the save.

    切爾西的守門員遵照 Huerta 的指示成功擋下了那一球

  • Ultimately Manchester United won the game, but despite Chelsea's loss, it was clear that economists and statisticians can help even the odds when it comes to penalty kicks.

    最終曼聯隊贏了比賽,但儘管切爾西隊輸了,很明顯經濟學家和統計學家在罰球大戰時可以幫助增加擋下球的成功率。

  • Because otherwise, it's a crap shoot for the goalie.

    否則,對於守門員而言,這只是一堆廢話。

  • In 2014 for example, FiveThirtyEight calculated that 72.5% of penalties in World Cup history went in.

    以 2014 年為例,538 網站計算出世界盃歷史上有 72.5% 的罰球是合乎這個邏輯的。

  • For all competitions worldwide, it's even higher.

    如果將全球所有比賽都算在內,比例甚至更高。

  • And when you take a closer look, it's no wonder.

    而當你仔細瞭解後就知道,這些其實不足為奇。

  • Human response time takes roughly 1/10 of a second to kick in.

    人類正常的反應時間大約需要 1/10 秒後才能開始。

  • The average kicker kicks a 70 mile per hour ball, which means the goalie won't even register the ball's direction until it's about 25 feet away.

    罰球者平均球速為時速 70 英里,這意味著守門員要等到球距離大約 25 英尺的時候才能搞清楚球的方向。

  • It will take him another .5 to .7 seconds to react and reach for the ball, but by that point, it's all over.

    然後他又需要 0.5 到 0.7 秒的時間做出反應去擋下球,但是到那個時候早已來不及了。

  • Now the goalie can improve the odds if they start to move before the ball is even kicked,

    如果守門員可以在罰球員起腳之前先開始移動位置,就可以提高擋下的成功率,

  • but the goalie still has to basically guess a side and just go for it.

    但是守門員仍然必須先猜測球的方向,然後全力一搏。

  • So if time is the goalie's enemy, maybe we should just move the penalty kicker further back.

    所以,如果說時間是守門員的敵人,或許我們應該將罰球線畫的離球門更遠一點。

  • But for now, economists are a goalie's best friend when it comes to stopping penalty kicks,

    但就目前而言,當談到成功擋下罰球時,經濟學家則是守門員最好的朋友,

  • and turns out, Huerta is helping a team in the 2018 World Cup, though he wouldn't tell us who.

    事實上,Huerta 正在幫助一支 2018 年世界盃的球隊,儘管他不會告訴我們是哪一隊。

0.4 seconds.

0.4 秒。

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為什麼罰球對守門員來說不公平 (Why Penalty Kicks Are Unfair To The Goalie)

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    Evangeline 發佈於 2021 年 03 月 08 日
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