Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • MALE SPEAKER: Hello, everyone.

  • Welcome to today's talk.

  • We have a very, very special guest today.

  • And I couldn't be more pleased.

  • In thinking about an introduction for him,

  • I quickly realized there's nothing that's

  • going to beat his own words.

  • So I'm going to share a couple of snippets from his writings

  • over the years.

  • And as I do so, think about what would be your guess when

  • he wrote them.

  • So here's one.

  • The bottom line is that many of the investors setting

  • the prices in today's markets don't care about valuation.

  • I get no sense, at all, that the analysts and portfolio

  • managers backing the large cap growth

  • stocks and internet high flyers can imagine

  • prices at which they would be mere holds or, heaven forbid,

  • sells.

  • When do you think this was written?

  • AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].

  • MALE SPEAKER: This was '99.

  • So yeah, there's something to say about the timeliness

  • of what our guest writes.

  • And here's one more.

  • This is from the last 10 years.

  • In the end, buyers took out the biggest mortgage possible

  • given their incomes and prevailing interest rates.

  • Such mortgages would land them in the houses of their dreams

  • and would leave them there as long

  • as conditions did not deteriorate,

  • which they invariably do.

  • Anyway you slice it, standards for mortgage loans

  • have dropped in recent years and risk has increased.

  • Logic based?

  • Perhaps.

  • Cycle induced and exacerbated?

  • I'd say so.

  • Certainly, mortgage lending was made riskier.

  • We'll see in a few years whether that

  • was intelligent risk taking or excessive competitive order.

  • When was this?

  • AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE].

  • MALE SPEAKER: This was 2007.

  • And we are a few years from there.

  • And we've seen what happened.

  • So I'm sure all of you want to know what's on our guests

  • mind today.

  • And we are so fortunate that he's here with us in person.

  • So without any further ado, ladies and gentlemen,

  • please join me in welcoming the one and only Howard Marks.

  • [APPLAUSE]

  • HOWARD MARKS: Well that's quite an induction

  • and [INAUDIBLE] puts a lot of pressure on me

  • that I have to be right.

  • So it's hard.

  • But I'm really excited to be here.

  • I want to thank [INAUDIBLE] for setting up this event.

  • And he's worked very hard to make

  • it go well for you and for me.

  • And I hope it'll be fun for all of us.

  • And because I get the impression here at Google

  • that fun is important.

  • Right?

  • AUDIENCE: Absolutely.

  • HOWARD MARKS: So there aren't too many things in life

  • that are worth doing if they can't be fun.

  • As you know, I wrote a book in 2011

  • called the most important thing.

  • And the reason it has that title is because I would find myself

  • in my client's office.

  • And I would say the most important thing in investing

  • is controlling risk.

  • And then five minutes later, I would say the most important

  • thing is to buy at a low price.

  • And five minutes later, I would say the most important thing

  • is to act as a contrarian.

  • So back in 2003, I believe, I wrote

  • a memo called The Most Important Thing.

  • I listed 19 things.

  • Each of which was the most important thing.

  • And then I used that.

  • I couldn't think of a better format for my book.

  • So I used the same format in 2011.

  • Interestingly, some of the things are different.

  • That goes to show you that one's thinking should still be alive

  • and should still evolve.

  • And I know that [INAUDIBLE] and some of the other fellows

  • went to see Charlie Munger speak in Los Angeles

  • this week at age 91.

  • And I'm sure he's still evolving and getting younger.

  • So I'm going to try to do the same.

  • Now I should tell you, and I don't know if you know this,

  • but I write memos to the clients.

  • And I'll refer to a lot of memos in this session, probably.

  • And they're all available on oaktreecapital.com website.

  • And the price is right.

  • They're all free.

  • And I've been sending them out now 25 years.

  • I started in 1990.

  • And I got a letter from a guy named

  • Warren Buffet in 2009 or '10.

  • And he said, if you'll write a book,

  • I'll give you a quote for the jacket.

  • So I had been planning on writing a book when

  • I retired from work.

  • But Buffet's promise caused me to accelerate my time frame.

  • And what the book is is-- who here has read it?

  • OK, about half.

  • So what the book is, it's a recitation

  • of my investment philosophy.

  • And as it says in the forward to the philosophy, which

  • I took the forward-- I don't know about you,

  • I never read the forwards books.

  • But I took the forward to mine very seriously.

  • And what it says in there-- it's not

  • designed to tell you how to make money.

  • And it's not designed to tell you how easy investment is

  • or to try to make it easy.

  • And in fact, my highest gold is probably

  • to make it clear how hard it is.

  • Investing is very difficult because it's,

  • kind of, counter intuitive.

  • And it, kind of, turns back on itself all the time.

  • And there are no formulas that work.

  • So what I tried to do in the book

  • is teach people how to think.

  • Now the thoughts they should hold change from time to time.

  • But how to think, I think, is valid in the long term.

  • And it's my invest philosophy.

  • And I wasn't born with an investment philosophy.

  • You'll hear from a lot of people,

  • if you're interested in investing, he'll say, well,

  • I started reading prospectuses at age eight, and I didn't.

  • Or you know, at 13, I invested my bar mitzvah money,

  • which I didn't do.

  • But in fact, when I was getting out of graduate school-- age

  • 23 in 1969 so I know you can all do the math--

  • I didn't know what I wanted to do.

  • I had studied finance at Wharton and accounting at Chicago.

  • And I knew I wanted to do something in finance.

  • But I wasn't very specific.

  • So I interviewed in five or six different fields.

  • Large consulting firms, small consulting firm,

  • accounting firm, corporate treasury,

  • investment management, investment banking, six, so I

  • ended up in the investment business.

  • Why?

  • Because I had a summer job in '68

  • at city in the investment research department and I

  • liked it.

  • I had fun, right.

  • That's a good reason.

  • So I went there.

  • And by the way, interestingly, there

  • was nothing magical about working in the investment

  • business at that time.

  • It paid the same as all the rest.

  • All six jobs that I was offered had the same pay.

  • Between 12.5 and 14 a year, not a month.

  • And there were no famous investors at the time.

  • Investing was not a household word.

  • There were no investment TV shows.

  • So I just did it because I liked it.

  • I liked the people.

  • And I thought that the investing was intellectually interesting.

  • So I didn't have a philosophy then when I started.

  • And I had some things I had learned in school.

  • But I think that your philosophy-- your philosophy--

  • as opposed to somebody if you studied

  • Descartes or Locke or somebody like

  • that, you learn his philosophy.

  • You might learn a philosophy by studying a religion.

  • But that's not your philosophy.

  • Your philosophy will come from the combination

  • of what you have been taught by your teachers

  • and parents and your experiences and what your experiences tell

  • you about the things you were taught

  • and how they have to be modified.

  • So I developed my philosophy.

  • It might seem like I started writing the memos a long time

  • ago-- 25 years-- but I had been working already

  • over two decades, at that time.

  • So I think that the integration of real life into philosophy

  • is essential.

  • Now I prepared a few slides for today.

  • And basically, the slides are here

  • to illustrate where philosophy came from.

  • Talk to you about some of the foundations and roots.

  • So I call it origins and inspirations.

  • And I hope you'll find it interesting.

  • So first of all, not in order chronologically

  • but, hopefully, in order to try to make something intelligible.

  • Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

  • Now who here has read that?

  • All right, more people than have read my book.

  • And I think it's very important.

  • I think it's an excellent book with very, very

  • important ideas.

  • Now don't tell Nassim I said this,

  • but I tell all the people I speak to that it is either

  • the most important badly written book or the worst written very

  • important book that you'll ever read.

  • I think it's not very clear.

  • And I think it's not-- well, maybe

  • there's no attempt to make it clear.

  • But I think a lot of the ideas are very important and even

  • profound, in my opinion.

  • So among other things, and the basic theme

  • is that in investing there's a lot of randomness.

  • And if you look at investing as a field

  • without randomness where everything is determinative,

  • you'll get confused because you will not

  • draw the proper inferences from what you see.

  • For example, just a brief example, you see somebody

  • and they report a great return for the year.

  • The scientist who thinks that the investment world runs

  • like the world of physics might think, well,

  • great return, that means the guy's a great investor.

  • But in truth, it might be somebody who took a crazy shot

  • and got lucky.

  • Why?

  • Because there's a lot of randomness in the world.

  • When I went to Wharton in 1963, the first book

  • I remember learning was called Decision Making

  • Under Uncertainty, by C. Jackson Greyson who

  • became, as I recall, America's first energy czar.

  • And I learned a couple important things from that book.

  • Number one, that you can't tell from an outcome

  • whether a decision was good or bad.

  • It's very important.

  • Most people don't understand this.

  • Totally counter intuitive.

  • But the truth is, in the real world

  • where there's randomness at work-- I mean,

  • if you build a bridge and it falls down,

  • then you must assume that the engineer made

  • a mistake that it was a bad decision

  • to build the bridge that way.

  • But in the real world of where there's randomness,

  • good decisions fail to work all the time.

  • Bad decisions work all the time.

  • The investment business is full of people who are, quote,

  • right for the wrong reason.

  • Made a bad decision, it didn't work out the way they thought,

  • but they got lucky.

  • And they were bailed out by events.

  • So this is