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  • [A provocation from Danny Hillis:]

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: SF Huang

  • [It's time to start talking about engineering our climate]

    【丹尼 • 希利斯的挑釁:】

  • What if there was a way to build a thermostat

    【是開始談處理氣候議題的時候了】

  • that allowed you to turn down the temperature of the earth

    如果有辦法打造一個自動調溫器,

  • anytime you wanted?

    讓你可以隨時隨地

  • Now, you would think if somebody had a plausible idea about how to do that,

    調降地球的溫度?

  • everybody would be very excited about it,

    若有人有可行的想法,

  • and there would be lots of research on how to do it.

    每個人應該都會感到非常興奮,

  • But in fact, a lot of people do understand how to do that.

    而且會有很多相關的研究報告才對。

  • But there's not much support for research in this area.

    事實上,許多人確實知道要如何做。

  • And I think part of it

    但是,這個領域並沒有得到很多 相關研究的支持。

  • is because there are some real misunderstandings about it.

    我認為部分原因,

  • So I'm not going to try to convince you today that this is a good idea.

    是大家對它存在著一些誤解。

  • But I am going to try to get your curiosity going about it

    今天,我不會試著說服 各位相信這是個好點子。

  • and clear up some of the misunderstandings.

    但我會試著讓各位對它感到好奇,

  • So, the basic idea of solar geoengineering

    同時也澄清一些誤解。

  • is that we can cool things down

    太陽能地球工程的基本想法是,

  • just by reflecting a little bit more sunlight

    只要把稍微多一點的太陽光

  • back into space.

    反射回太空,

  • And ideas about how to do this have been around literally for decades.

    我們就能將地球降溫。

  • Clouds are a great way to do that, these low-lying clouds.

    數十年來人們探究要如何實踐。

  • Everybody knows it's cooler under a cloud.

    雲會是很棒的方法,這些低空的雲。

  • I like this cloud because it has exactly the same water content

    大家都知道,在雲底下比較涼爽。

  • as the transparent air around it.

    我喜歡這種雲,因為它的水含量

  • And it just shows that even a little bit of a change in the flow of the air

    和周圍的透明空氣一樣。

  • can cause a cloud to form.

    這意味著即使空氣的流動 只有一丁點的改變,

  • We make artificial clouds all the time.

    就能形成雲。

  • These are contrails, which are artificial water clouds

    我們一直都在製造人造雲。

  • that are made by the passing of a jet engine.

    這些是凝結尾,也就是人造水雲,

  • And so, we're already changing the clouds on earth.

    是噴射機引擎在飛行時所產生的。

  • By accident.

    我們已經在改變地球上的雲了。

  • Or, if you like to believe it, by supersecret government conspiracy.

    非特意的。

  • (Laughter)

    或是,也有人相信 是政府的超神秘陰謀。

  • But we are already doing this quite a lot.

    (笑聲)

  • This is a NASA picture of shipping lanes.

    但,我們已經常常在製造雲了。

  • Passing ships actually cause clouds to form,

    這是太空總署拍的海上航道照片。

  • and this is a big enough effect

    航行的船隻會導致雲的形成,

  • that it actually helps reduce global warming already by about a degree.

    這影響夠大,

  • So we already are doing solar engineering.

    實際上已經有助於 減輕全球暖化大約一度。

  • There's lots of ideas about how to do this.

    所以我們已經在做太陽能工程了。

  • People have looked at everything,

    要如何去實踐它的點子有很多。

  • from building giant parasols out into space

    人們的想法應有盡有,

  • to fizzing bubble waters in the ocean.

    從在外太空建造巨型陽傘,

  • And some of these are actually very plausible ideas.

    到使海水產生氣泡都有。

  • One that was published recently by David Keith at Harvard

    當中有一些想法似乎是蠻合理的。

  • is to take chalk and put dust up into the stratosphere,

    近期,哈佛的大衛 • 凱斯 在刊物中提出了一個想法,

  • where it reflects off sunlight.

    把白堊(粉筆)的粉末 投放到同溫層當中,

  • And that's a really neat idea,

    它會把太陽光反射回去。

  • because chalk is one of the most common minerals on earth,

    那是很棒的想法,

  • and it's very safe -- it's so safe, we put it into baby food.

    因為白堊是地球上 最常見的礦物之一,

  • And basically, if you throw chalk up into the stratosphere,

    且它非常安全──安全到 我們會把它放到嬰兒食物中。

  • it comes down in a couple of years all by itself, dissolved in rainwater.

    基本上,若你把白堊放到同溫層中,

  • Now, before you start worrying about all this chalk in your rainwater,

    幾年後它自己會落下, 在雨水中分解。

  • let me explain to you how little of it it actually takes.

    在各位開始擔心雨水中的白堊之前,

  • And that turns out to be very easy to calculate.

    先讓我解釋需要使用的量有多麼少。

  • This is a back-of-the-envelope calculation I made.

    結果發現,這用量很容易計算。

  • (Laughter)

    這是我在信封背後做的計算。

  • (Applause)

    (笑聲)

  • I assure you, people have done much more careful calculations,

    (掌聲)

  • and it comes out with the same answer,

    我向各位保證, 有人做過更精密的計算,

  • which is that you have to put chalk up at the rate of about 10 teragrams a year

    結果答案是相同的,

  • to undo the effects of the CO2 that we've already done --

    答案是,你需要每年放上 大約一千萬公噸的白堊,

  • just in terms of temperature, not all the effects, but the temperature.

    來弭平二氧化碳已經造成的效應──

  • So what does that look like?

    只有溫度上的效應, 不是所有的效應,僅限於溫度。

  • I can't visualize 10 teragrams per year.

    所以,那看起來是什麼樣子?

  • So I asked the Cambridge Fire Department and Taylor Milsal

    我無法具像化 每年一千萬公噸的樣子。

  • to lend me a hand.

    所以,我請劍橋消防局 和泰勒 • 米爾索

  • This is a hose pumping water at 10 teragrams a year.

    來幫我一個忙。

  • And that is how much

    這水管灌注出的水量, 就是一年一千萬公噸。

  • you would have to pump into the stratosphere

    只要把這麼多的量

  • to cool the earth back down to pre-industrial levels.

    灌注到同溫層,

  • And it's amazingly little; it's like one hose for the entire earth.

    就能讓地球降溫到 工業時代以前的溫度。

  • Now of course, you wouldn't really use a hose,

    這份量少得驚人; 整個地球只要這一根水管。

  • you'd fly it up in airplanes or something like that.

    當然,我們不會真的用水管,

  • But it's so little, it would be like putting a handful of chalk

    可能會用飛機載上去之類的方式。

  • into every Olympic swimming pool full of rain.

    但,需要的量相當少, 就像是把一把白堊

  • It's almost nothing.

    丟到裝滿雨水的每個奧運游泳池中。

  • So why don't people like this idea?

    幾乎沒感覺。

  • Why isn't it taken more seriously?

    所以,為什麼大家不喜歡這個想法?

  • And there are some very good reasons for that.

    它為何沒被更認真看待?

  • A lot of people really don't think we should be talking about this at all.

    這背後有些很好的理由。

  • And, in fact, I have some very good friends in the audience

    很多人完全不認為 我們應該要談這些。

  • who I respect a lot,

    事實上,在觀眾當中 有一些我非常要好的朋友,

  • who really don't think I should be talking about this.

    我很尊敬他們,

  • And the reason is that they're concerned

    他們完全不認為我應該來談這個。

  • that if people imagine there's some easy way out,

    因為他們關心的是,

  • that we won't give up our addiction to fossil fuels.

    如果大家知道會有簡單的解決方案,

  • And I do worry about that.

    那麼我們就不會放棄 對化石燃料的依賴了。

  • I think it's actually a serious problem.

    我確實也會擔心這點。

  • But there's also, I think, a deeper problem,

    我認為這其實是個嚴重的問題。

  • which is: nobody likes the idea of messing with the entire earth --

    但,我認為還有一個更深入的問題,

  • I certainly don't.

    那就是:沒有人會喜歡 去亂搞整個地球──

  • I love this planet, I really do.

    我肯定不喜歡。

  • And I don't want to mess with it.

    我愛這個星球,真的。

  • But we're already changing our atmosphere,

    我不想亂搞它。

  • we're already messing with it.

    但我們已經在改變我們的大氣了,

  • And so I think it makes sense for us to look for ways

    我們已經在亂搞它了。

  • to mitigate that impact.

    所以我認為這是合理的, 我們應該要找些方式

  • And we need to do research to do that.

    來把衝擊給減少。

  • We need to understand the science behind that.

    我們需要去做相關的研究。

  • I've noticed that there's a theme that's kind of developed at TED,

    我們需要了解它背後的科學。

  • which is kind of, "fear versus hope,"

    我注意到,在 TED 有個主題正在發展,

  • or "creativity versus caution."

    類似是「恐懼與希望」,

  • And of course, we need both of those.

    或「創意與謹慎」。

  • So there aren't any silver bullets.

    當然,我們兩者都需要。

  • This is certainly not a silver bullet.

    沒有任何簡單快速的解法。

  • But we need science to tell us what our options are;

    這肯定不是簡單快速的解決方法。

  • that informs both our creativity and our caution.

    但我們需要科學 來告訴我們有哪些選項,

  • So I am an optimist about our future selves,

    那樣就能同時為我們的 創意和謹慎提供資訊。

  • but I'm not an optimist because I think our problems are small.

    所以對於我們的未來, 我抱持著樂觀的態度,

  • I'm an optimist because I think our capacity to deal with our problems

    但我樂觀的原因並不是 因為我們的問題很小。

  • is much greater than we imagine.

    我樂觀的原因是, 我認為我們處理問題的能力

  • Thank you very much.

    遠超過我們的想像。

  • (Applause)

    非常謝謝。

  • This talk sparked a lot of controversy at TED2017,

    (掌聲)

  • and we encourage you to look at discussions online

    這場演說在 TED 2017 引發了許多爭論,

  • to see other points of view.

    我們鼓勵大家上網看看討論,

[A provocation from Danny Hillis:]

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: SF Huang

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【TED】丹尼-希利斯:我們應該創造一個太陽能遮陽棚來冷卻地球嗎?(我們是否應該創造一個太陽能遮陽棚來冷卻地球?|丹尼-希利斯) (【TED】Danny Hillis: Should we create a solar shade to cool the earth? (Should we create a solar shade to cool the earth? | Danny Hillis))

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    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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