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  • So there's a lot of valid concern these days

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

  • that our technology is getting so smart

    近期有不少相當有根據的擔心,

  • that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

    擔心我們的科技變得太聰明,

  • And I think the example of a self-driving car

    會讓我們走向一個失業的未來。

  • is actually the easiest one to see.

    我想,自動駕駛的汽車

  • So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

    應該會是最早出現的例子。

  • But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

    基於各種理由,這些科技應該 對我們都很有幫助才對。

  • in 29 of the 50 US states?

    但各位是否知道, 美國 50 州當中有 29 州

  • What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

    「司機」這個工作 是最多人從事的工作?

  • or cooking our food

    將來這些工作會變成怎樣? 如果我們不再開車了、

  • or even diagnosing our own diseases?

    不再做菜了、

  • Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

    甚至不用診斷自己的疾病了?

  • goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

    近期,弗雷斯特研究公司

  • might disappear over the next 10 years.

    有項研究指出, 預計在接下來的十年間,

  • To put that in perspective,

    有 2500 萬個工作會消失。

  • that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

    更準確地說,

  • And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

    這個數字是金融危機失業數的三倍。

  • On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

    不只藍領的工作有危機。

  • in the quality of analysis and decision-making

    在華爾街以及矽谷,

  • because of machine learning.

    都能看到機器學習 在分析與決策的品質上

  • So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

    已經幫助投資者獲得相當大的收益。

  • What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

    即使是最聰明、高薪的人, 也會被這改變給影響到。

  • at least some, if not all of your work,

    可以知道的是, 不論你的工作是什麼,

  • is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

    在接下來幾年, 你的工作至少有一部份,

  • And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

    甚至全部,將會由 機器人或軟體來接手。

  • are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

    這也是為什麼馬克祖克柏 和比爾蓋茲他們這些人,

  • But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

    會談到需要有由政府發動資助 最低收入水平的政策。

  • or even school lunches,

    但如果政客們都無法搞定 全民健保或甚至是營養午餐

  • I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

    這一類的小事,

  • on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

    那我實在看不出, 他們要如何在像是

  • Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

    全體基本生活收入這種 要花大錢的大事上取得共識。

  • We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

    我反而認為,應變方式 應該由產業界來帶頭領導才是。

  • and start to design the new kinds of jobs

    我們得要認清將來要面對的改變,

  • that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

    並開始設計新類型的工作,

  • The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

    讓我們在機器人時代 仍有實質性的工作可做。

  • two mass extinctions of jobs before.

    好消息是,我們以前就面臨並克服過

  • From 1870 to 1970,

    兩次重大的工作滅絕災難。

  • the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

    從 1870 年到 1970 年,

  • and then again from 1950 to 2010,

    美國以農田為基礎的 工人少了 90%,

  • the percent of Americans working in factories

    然後,1950 年到 2010 年 又發生一次,

  • fell by 75 percent.

    在工廠工作的美國人

  • The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

    少了 75%。

  • We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

    然而,這次我們面對的挑戰, 是時間上的挑戰。

  • and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

    我們從農業社會轉換到工業社會, 用了一百年的時間,

  • The rate of change today

    然後用了六十年的時間, 才完整服務業經濟的轉型。

  • suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

    但這次的改變速度,

  • and if we don't react fast enough,

    我們可能只有十到 十五年的時間來調整,

  • that means by the time today's elementary-school students

    如果我們的反應不夠快,

  • are college-aged,

    也就是說,在現在的小學生

  • we could be living in a world that's robotic,

    上大學的時候,

  • largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

    我們可能會居住在一個

  • But I don't think it has to be this way.

    大量失業的機器人世界, 並卡在一種不怎麼大的蕭條經濟中。

  • You see, I work in innovation,

    但我覺得並非得一定要走上這一步。

  • and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

    我的工作是創新,

  • Certainly some of these technologies

    有一部分是在幫大公司 規劃如何應用新技術。

  • are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

    肯定有一些技術

  • But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

    是特別設計來取代人類勞動者的。

  • to change the nature of work,

    但我相信,如果我們現在就起步,

  • we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

    來改變工作的本質,

  • but also generate the innovation that we need

    我們不但能創造出讓人們 樂意去的工作環境,

  • to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

    也能產生出我們需要的創新,

  • I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

    來取代數百萬個 因科技而消失的工作。

  • is to rediscover what makes us human,

    我相信,預防未來失業的關鍵在於

  • and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

    要重新找到「人類」的價值,

  • that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

    並創造出以人類為 中心的新一代工作,

  • that we carry with us every day.

    讓我們能夠將每天帶在身上的

  • But first, I think it's important to recognize

    潛藏天賦與熱情展現出來。

  • that we brought this problem on ourselves.

    但,首先,很重要的是要知道,

  • And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

    是我們自己造成這個問題的。

  • But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

    原因並不只是因為 我們建造了機器人。

  • we still hold on to this factory mindset

    雖然數十年前大部份的工作 已經在工廠消失,

  • of standardization and de-skilling.

    我們仍然有著工廠心態:

  • We still define jobs around procedural tasks

    標準化和降低技術難度。

  • and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

    我們仍然以程序性任務來定義工作,

  • We've created narrow job definitions

    然後根據人們花在這些 任務上的時數來支付薪水。

  • like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

    我們對工作的定義很狹隘,

  • and then asked people to form entire careers

    如出納員、貸款程序員、 計程車司機,

  • around these singular tasks.

    然後要求人們用這些單一任務來

  • These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

    規劃他們的人生職涯。

  • The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

    這些選擇其實 會帶給我們兩個副作用。

  • will be the first to be displaced by robots,

    第一,這些定義狹隘的工作

  • because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

    會是最先被機器人取代的工作,

  • But second, we have accidentally made it

    因為處理單一任務的 機器人最容易做。

  • so that millions of workers around the world

    第二,我們已經不小心

  • have unbelievably boring working lives.

    讓全世界數百萬勞工的

  • (Laughter)

    工作生活變得無聊死了。

  • Let's take the example of a call center agent.

    (笑聲)

  • Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

    就以電話客服中心為例。

  • because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

    在過去幾十年, 我們吹噓著要壓低營運成本,

  • out of the person and put it into the system.

    因為我們把大部份需要腦力的工作,

  • For most of their day, they click on screens,

    從人身上轉到了系統上。

  • they read scripts.

    這些人大部份的工作時間 是在點選螢幕、

  • They act more like machines than humans.

    閱讀操作指示。

  • And unfortunately, over the next few years,

    他們的行為比較像機器而非人類。

  • as our technology gets more advanced,

    不幸的是,在接下來幾年,

  • they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

    隨著我們的科技更進步,

  • will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

    他們以及像是辦事員、記帳員等等,

  • To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

    將要面臨工作機會大量消失的現象。

  • that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

    要對抗這現象, 就得要開始創造新工作,

  • and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

    不要著重在「工作」,

  • For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,

    要比較著重在人會的「技能」上。

  • but human beings have an amazing ability

    比如,機器人很擅長 重覆性和受限制的工作,

  • to bring together capability with creativity

    但人類有很了不起的能力,

  • when faced with problems that we've never seen before.

    能夠在面對以前從未見過的問題時,

  • It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise

    將才能與創意結合在一起。

  • that we have designed work for humans

    當每天都能夠帶來一點點驚奇時,

  • and not for robots.

    就表示我們是在為「人」設計工作,

  • Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,

    而非為「機器人」設計工作。

  • but so do our nurses and our plumbers

    我們的企業家和工程師 已經活在這種世界裡,

  • and our therapists.

    我們的護士、水電工、

  • You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations

    和治療師也是。

  • to just ask people to come to work and do your job.

    太多公司和組織的本質,

  • But if you work is better done by a robot,

    就是要求人們來上班、做你的工作。

  • or your decisions better made by an AI,

    但若機器人能把你的工作做更好,

  • what are you supposed to be doing?

    或是人工智慧能比你 更能做出好的決策,

  • Well, I think for the manager,

    那你該做什麼事?

  • we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing

    我想,對經理人而言,

  • over the next few years

    我們需要很實際地去思考

  • and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.

    在接下來幾年會消失的工作任務,

  • We need to create environments

    並開始規劃比較有意義、 有價值的工作來取代。

  • where both human beings and robots thrive.

    我們需要創造出能讓

  • I say, let's give more work to the robots,

    人類和機器人都雙贏的環境。

  • and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.

    我說,就給機器人更多工作吧,

  • Here, robot,

    先把我們最討厭 做的工作丟給它們做。

  • process this painfully idiotic report.

    機器人,給你,

  • (Laughter)

    你來處理這惱人又愚蠢的報告。

  • And move this box. Thank you.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    順便移開這箱子,謝謝。

  • And for the human beings,

    (笑聲)

  • we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.

    對人類而言,

  • He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves

    我們應該要採納芝加哥大學 哈利戴維斯的建議。

  • in the trunk of their car.

    他說,我們得要做到

  • I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.

    不要讓人們覺得 自己沒有完全發揮才能。

  • Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.

    人類在週末的時候是很令人驚奇的。

  • They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.

    想想看你認識的人 在星期六會做什麼。

  • But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist

    他們會變成藝術家、 木工、主廚、運動員。

  • and Systems Analyst 3.

    但星期一,他們回去當 低階的人力資源專員、

  • (Laughter)

    三號系統分析員。

  • You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,

    (笑聲)

  • but they're actually a subtle encouragement

    這些狹隘的工作職稱 不僅是聽起來很無聊,

  • for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.

    實際上,它們在不知不覺間

  • But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,

    鼓勵人們去做 狹隘且無聊的工作貢獻。

  • they can amaze us with how much more they can be.

    但我親眼見過,當你 邀請人們更上一層樓時,

  • A few years ago, I was working at a large bank

    他們能做到的,會讓我們驚艷。

  • that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.

    幾年前,我在一間大型銀行工作,

  • So my team and I designed a prototyping contest

    該銀行試圖想要在 公司文化中加入更多創新。

  • that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.

    我和我的團隊設計了 一個原型製作競賽,

  • We were actually trying to figure out

    邀請所有人建造他們想要的東西。

  • whether or not the primary limiter to innovation

    我們其實是在試圖了解,

  • was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,

    限制了創新的主要因子是不是

  • and it turns out it was neither one.

    缺乏點子或是缺乏才華,

  • It was an empowerment problem.

    結果兩者都不是。

  • And the results of the program were amazing.

    問題是在於賦權使能。

  • We started by inviting people to reenvision

    那個專案計畫的結果很驚人。

  • what it is they could bring to a team.

    我們一開始是邀請人們來重新想像

  • This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted

    他們能帶給團隊什麼。

  • but also be anything that you wanted.

    這個競賽並不只是個機會 讓他們建造任何想建造的東西,

  • And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,

    也是個機會讓你 成為任何想成為的人。

  • they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents

    當人們不再受到平常職稱的限制時,

  • to the problems that they were trying to solve.

    他們感到能自由地運用 所有不同的技能和才華,

  • We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,

    用在他們試圖解決的問題上。

  • and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.

    我們看過科技人員變成設計師、 行銷人員變成建築師,

  • (Laughter)

    甚至財務人員都會炫耀 他們寫笑話的能力。

  • We ran this program twice,

    (笑聲)

  • and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work

    這個專案計畫做了兩次,

  • and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.

    每次都有超過四百人, 把他們未被預期的才華帶進工作中,

  • Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,

    解決他們多年來一直想解決的問題。

  • building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,

    他們一起創造出了數百萬元的價值,

  • easier desktop tools for branches

    像是為客服中心建造 更好用的按鍵式系統、

  • and even a thank you card system

    為分行建造更好用的桌面工具、

  • that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.

    甚至還有感謝卡系統,

  • Over the course of the eight weeks,

    成為員工工作情感上的基石。

  • people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.

    在八週的期間,

  • People learned new skills,

    大家捲起袖子,拿出了從未夢想過 能夠在工作上使用到的能力。

  • they met new people,

    人們學習新技能,

  • and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,

    他們去認識新的人,

  • "I have to tell you,

    最後,有個人把我拉到一旁,說:

  • the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,

    「我得告訴你,

  • hardest working experiences of my entire life,

    過去幾週是我一生中

  • but not one second of it felt like work."

    最熱情最賣力的工作經驗,

  • And that's the key.

    沒有一秒鐘感覺像是在工作。」

  • For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.

    那就是關鍵。

  • They had been dreaming of solutions

    在那幾週,人們得以 成為創作者、創新者。

  • to problems that had been bugging them for years,

    他們一直夢想著去解決

  • and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.

    那些讓他們困擾多年的問題,

  • And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.

    這是個讓那些夢想成真的機會。

  • For now, our machines do not get frustrated,

    我們和機器之所以不同, 很重要的一點就是夢想。

  • they do not get annoyed,

    我們的機器不會感到挫折,

  • and they certainly don't imagine.

    它們不會被惹惱,

  • But we, as human beings --

    它們肯定也不會想像。

  • we feel pain,

    但我們,身為人類──

  • we get frustrated.

    我們能感受痛苦,

  • And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious

    我們會受到挫折,

  • that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.

    在我們最惱怒、最好奇的時候,

  • Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,

    我們就會有動力去 探究問題並創造改變。

  • and even new industries.

    我們的想像力是新產品、新服務、

  • I believe that the jobs of the future

    甚至是新產業的孕育之地。

  • will come from the minds of people

    我相信,未來的工作

  • who today we call analysts and specialists,

    會來自現今被我們稱為

  • but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow

    分析師和專員的那些人的想法,

  • into becoming explorers and inventors.

    但前提是我們要給予 他們成長為探索家

  • If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,

    和發明家所需要的自由和保護。

  • we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset

    若想確保飯碗不被機器人搶走,

  • of telling people what to do

    身為領導者的我們,就應該要擺脫

  • and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve

    告訴人們該做什麼的心態,

  • and what talents they want to bring to work.

    反之,要開始問他們, 他們想要解決什麼問題、

  • Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,

    他們想要貢獻什麼才能到工作中。

  • you'll look forward to Mondays more,

    因為當你能在星期三 把星期六的你帶進工作時,

  • and those feelings that we have about Mondays

    你就會更期待星期一的到來,

  • are part of what makes us human.

    讓我們對星期一的感受

  • And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,

    成為身為人類的一部份。

  • I invite you all to work alongside me

    我們正在為智慧機器時代 重新設計工作,

  • to bring more humanity to our working lives.

    我邀請各位與我同行,

  • Thank you.

    把更多人性帶到 我們的工作生活當中。

  • (Applause)

    謝謝。

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 工作 機器人 人類 建造 創新

【TED】大衛-李:為什麼未來的工作不會有工作的感覺(Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee) (【TED】David Lee: Why jobs of the future won't feel like work (Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee))

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