very often, they invoke images of humanoid robots run amok.

當人們表達出對人工智慧的恐懼，

You know? Terminator?

他們腦中的景象通常是 形象似人的機器人失控殺人。

You know, that might be something to consider,

知道嗎？魔鬼終結者？

but that's a distant threat.

雖然考量那種情況的確沒錯，

Or, we fret about digital surveillance

但那是遙遠以後的威脅。

with metaphors from the past.

或者，我們擔心被數位監視，

"1984," George Orwell's "1984,"

有著來自過去的隱喻。

it's hitting the bestseller lists again.

喬治歐威爾的《1984》

It's a great book,

再度登上了暢銷書的排行榜。

but it's not the correct dystopia for the 21st century.

雖然它是本很棒的書，

What we need to fear most

但它並未正確地反映出 21 世紀的反烏托邦。

is not what artificial intelligence will do to us on its own,

我們最需要恐懼的

but how the people in power will use artificial intelligence

並不是人工智慧本身會對我們怎樣，

to control us and to manipulate us

而是掌權者會如何運用人工智慧

in novel, sometimes hidden,

來控制和操縱我們，

subtle and unexpected ways.

用新穎的、有時隱蔽的、

Much of the technology

精細的、出乎意料的方式。

that threatens our freedom and our dignity in the near-term future

那些會在不遠的將來

is being developed by companies

威脅我們自由和尊嚴的科技，

in the business of capturing and selling our data and our attention

多半出自下面這類公司，

to advertisers and others:

他們攫取我們的注意力和資料，

Facebook, Google, Amazon,

販售給廣告商和其他對象：

Alibaba, Tencent.

臉書、Google、亞馬遜、

Now, artificial intelligence has started bolstering their business as well.

阿里巴巴、騰訊。

And it may seem like artificial intelligence

人工智慧開始鞏固這些公司的事業。

is just the next thing after online ads.

看似人工智慧將是

It's not.

線上廣告後的下一個產物。

It's a jump in category.

並非如此。

It's a whole different world,

它是個大躍進的類別，

and it has great potential.

一個完全不同的世界，

It could accelerate our understanding of many areas of study and research.

它具有龐大的潛力，

But to paraphrase a famous Hollywood philosopher,

能夠加速我們對於 許多研究領域的了解。

"With prodigious potential comes prodigious risk."

但，轉述一位知名 好萊塢哲學家的說法：

Now let's look at a basic fact of our digital lives, online ads.

「驚人的潛力會帶來驚人的風險。」

Right? We kind of dismiss them.

先談談一個數位生活的 基本面向：線上廣告。

They seem crude, ineffective.

我們算是有點輕視了線上的廣告。

We've all had the experience of being followed on the web

它們看似粗糙、無效。

by an ad based on something we searched or read.

我們都曾經因為在網路上 搜尋或閱讀過某些內容，

You know, you look up a pair of boots

而老是被一個廣告給跟隨著。

and for a week, those boots are following you around everywhere you go.

上網搜尋一雙靴子，

Even after you succumb and buy them, they're still following you around.

之後的一週，你到哪兒 都會看見那雙靴子。

We're kind of inured to that kind of basic, cheap manipulation.

即使你屈服，買下了它， 它還是到處跟著你。

We roll our eyes and we think, "You know what? These things don't work."

我們算是習慣了 那種基本、廉價的操縱，

Except, online,

翻個白眼，心想： 「知道嗎？這些沒有用。」

the digital technologies are not just ads.

只除了在線上，

Now, to understand that, let's think of a physical world example.

數位科技並不只是廣告。

You know how, at the checkout counters at supermarkets, near the cashier,

為瞭解這一點，我們先用 實體世界當作例子。

there's candy and gum at the eye level of kids?

你們有沒有看過，在超市結帳台 靠近收銀機的地方，

That's designed to make them whine at their parents

會有放在孩子視線高度的 糖果和口香糖？

just as the parents are about to sort of check out.

那是設計來讓孩子哀求

Now, that's a persuasion architecture.

正在結帳的父母用的。

It's not nice, but it kind of works.

那是一種說服架構，

That's why you see it in every supermarket.

不太好，但算是有些效用，

Now, in the physical world,

因此在每個超級市場都看得到。

such persuasion architectures are kind of limited,

在實體世界中，

because you can only put so many things by the cashier. Right?

這種說服架構有點受限，

And the candy and gum, it's the same for everyone,

因為在收銀台那裡 只擺得下那麼點東西，對吧？

even though it mostly works

並且每個人看到的 是同樣的糖果和口香糖，

only for people who have whiny little humans beside them.

這招只對身旁

In the physical world, we live with those limitations.

有小孩子喋喋不休吵著的大人有用。

In the digital world, though,

我們生活的實體世界裡有那些限制。

persuasion architectures can be built at the scale of billions

但在數位世界裡，

and they can target, infer, understand

說服架構的規模可達數十億的等級，

and be deployed at individuals

它們會瞄準、臆測、了解，

one by one

針對個人來部署，

by figuring out your weaknesses,

各個擊破，

and they can be sent to everyone's phone private screen,

弄清楚個別的弱點，

so it's not visible to us.

且能傳送到每個人 私人手機的螢幕上，

And that's different.

別人是看不見的。

And that's just one of the basic things that artificial intelligence can do.

那就很不一樣。

Now, let's take an example.

那只是人工智慧 能做到的基本功能之一。

Let's say you want to sell plane tickets to Vegas. Right?

讓我舉個例子。

So in the old world, you could think of some demographics to target

比如說，你要賣飛往賭城的機票。

based on experience and what you can guess.

在舊式的世界裡，你可以想出 某些特徵的人來當目標，

You might try to advertise to, oh,

根據你的經驗和猜測。

men between the ages of 25 and 35,

你也可以試著打廣告，

or people who have a high limit on their credit card,

像針對 25~35 歲的男性，

or retired couples. Right?

或高信用卡額度的人，

That's what you would do in the past.

或退休的夫妻，對吧？

With big data and machine learning,

那是過去的做法。

that's not how it works anymore.

有了大量資料和機器學習，

So to imagine that,

方式就不一樣了。

think of all the data that Facebook has on you:

試想，

every status update you ever typed,

想想臉書掌握什麼關於你的資料：

every Messenger conversation,

所有你輸入的動態更新、

every place you logged in from,

所有的訊息對話、

all your photographs that you uploaded there.

所有你登入時的所在地、

If you start typing something and change your mind and delete it,

所有你上傳的照片。

Facebook keeps those and analyzes them, too.

如果你開始輸入些內容， 但隨後改變主意而將之刪除，

Increasingly, it tries to match you with your offline data.

臉書會保留那些內容和分析它們。

It also purchases a lot of data from data brokers.

它越來越會試著將你 和你的離線資料做匹配，

It could be everything from your financial records

也會向資料仲介商購買許多資料。

to a good chunk of your browsing history.

從你的財務記錄

Right? In the US, such data is routinely collected,

到你過去瀏覽過的一大堆記錄。

collated and sold.

在美國，這些資料被常規地收集、

In Europe, they have tougher rules.

校對和售出。

So what happens then is,

歐洲的規定比較嚴。

by churning through all that data, these machine-learning algorithms --

接下來發生的狀況是

that's why they're called learning algorithms --

透過攪拌所有這些資料， 這些機器學習演算法──

they learn to understand the characteristics of people

這就是為什麼它們 被稱為學習演算法──

who purchased tickets to Vegas before.

它們學會了解過去購買機票

When they learn this from existing data,

飛往賭城的人有何特徵。

they also learn how to apply this to new people.

當它們從既有的資料中 學到這些之後，

So if they're presented with a new person,

也學習如何將所學 套用到新的人身上。

they can classify whether that person is likely to buy a ticket to Vegas or not.

如果交給它們一個新的人，

Fine. You're thinking, an offer to buy tickets to Vegas.

它們能辨識那人可能 或不太可能買機票。

I can ignore that.

好。你心想，不就是提供 購買飛往賭城機票的訊息罷了，

But the problem isn't that.

可以忽略它。

The problem is,

但問題不在那裡。

we no longer really understand how these complex algorithms work.

問題是，

We don't understand how they're doing this categorization.

我們已經不能真正了解 這些複雜的演算法如何運作。

It's giant matrices, thousands of rows and columns,

我們不了解它們如何分類。

maybe millions of rows and columns,

它是個巨大的矩陣， 有數以千計的直行和橫列，

and not the programmers

也許有上百萬的直行和橫列，

and not anybody who looks at it,

程式設計者也無法了解，

even if you have all the data,

任何人看到它都無法了解，

understands anymore how exactly it's operating

即使握有所有的資料，

any more than you'd know what I was thinking right now

對於它到底如何運作的了解程度，

if you were shown a cross section of my brain.

絕對不會高於你對我現在 腦中想什麼的了解程度，

It's like we're not programming anymore,

如果你單憑看我大腦的切面圖。

we're growing intelligence that we don't truly understand.

感覺好像我們不是在寫程式了，

And these things only work if there's an enormous amount of data,

而是在栽培一種我們不是 真正了解的智慧。

so they also encourage deep surveillance on all of us

只在資料量非常巨大的情況下 這些才行得通，

so that the machine learning algorithms can work.

所以他們也助長了 對我們所有人的密切監視，

That's why Facebook wants to collect all the data it can about you.

這樣機器學習才能行得通。

The algorithms work better.

那就是為什麼臉書要盡可能 收集關於你的資料。

So let's push that Vegas example a bit.

這樣演算法效果才會比較好。

What if the system that we do not understand

讓我們再談談賭城的例子。

was picking up that it's easier to sell Vegas tickets

如果這個我們不了解的系統

to people who are bipolar and about to enter the manic phase.

發現比較容易把機票銷售給

Such people tend to become overspenders, compulsive gamblers.

即將進入躁症階段的躁鬱症患者。

They could do this, and you'd have no clue that's what they were picking up on.

這類人傾向於變成 花錢超支的人、強迫性賭徒。

I gave this example to a bunch of computer scientists once

他們能這麼做，而你完全不知道 那是他們選目標的根據。

and afterwards, one of them came up to me.

有次，我把這個例子 給了一群電腦科學家，

He was troubled and he said, "That's why I couldn't publish it."

之後，其中一人來找我。

I was like, "Couldn't publish what?"

他感到困擾，說：「那就是 為什麼我們無法發表它。」

He had tried to see whether you can indeed figure out the onset of mania

我說：「不能發表什麼？」

from social media posts before clinical symptoms,

他曾嘗試能否在出現臨床症狀前 就預知躁鬱症快發作了，

and it had worked,

靠的是分析社交媒體的貼文。

and it had worked very well,

他辦到了，

and he had no idea how it worked or what it was picking up on.

結果非常成功，

Now, the problem isn't solved if he doesn't publish it,

而他完全不知道是怎麼成功的， 也不知道預測的根據是什麼。

because there are already companies

如果他不發表結果， 問題就沒有解決，

that are developing this kind of technology,

因為已經有公司

and a lot of the stuff is just off the shelf.

在發展這種技術，

This is not very difficult anymore.

很多東西都已經是現成的了。

Do you ever go on YouTube meaning to watch one video

這已經不是很困難的事了。

and an hour later you've watched 27?

你可曾經上 YouTube 原本只是要看一支影片，

You know how YouTube has this column on the right

一個小時之後你卻已看了 27 支？

that says, "Up next"

你可知道 YouTube 在網頁的右欄

and it autoplays something?

擺著「即將播放」的影片，

It's an algorithm

而且會自動接著播放那些影片？

picking what it thinks that you might be interested in

那是種演算法，

and maybe not find on your own.

選出它認為你可能會感興趣，

It's not a human editor.

但不見得會自己去找到的影片。

It's what algorithms do.

並不是人類編輯者，

It picks up on what you have watched and what people like you have watched,

而是演算法做的。

and infers that that must be what you're interested in,

它去了解你看過什麼影片， 像你這類的人看過什麼影片，

what you want more of,

然後推論出那就是你會感興趣、

and just shows you more.

想看更多的影片，

It sounds like a benign and useful feature,

然後呈現更多給你看。

except when it isn't.

聽起來是個良性又有用的特色，

So in 2016, I attended rallies of then-candidate Donald Trump

除了它不是這樣的時候。

to study as a scholar the movement supporting him.

在 2016 年，我去了一場 擁護當時還是候選人川普的集會，

I study social movements, so I was studying it, too.

我以學者身份去研究支持他的運動。

And then I wanted to write something about one of his rallies,

我研究社會運動，所以也去研究它。

so I watched it a few times on YouTube.

接著，我想要針對 他的某次集會寫點什麼，

YouTube started recommending to me

所以就在 YouTube 上 看了幾遍。

and autoplaying to me white supremacist videos

YouTube 開始推薦給我

in increasing order of extremism.

並為我自動播放， 白人至上主義的影片，

If I watched one,

一支比一支更極端主義。

it served up one even more extreme

如果我看了一支，

and autoplayed that one, too.

它就會送上另一支更極端的，

If you watch Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders content,

並且自動播放它。

YouTube recommends and autoplays conspiracy left,

如果你看的影片內容是 希拉蕊柯林頓或伯尼桑德斯，

and it goes downhill from there.

YouTube 會推薦並自動播放 陰謀論左派的影片，

Well, you might be thinking, this is politics, but it's not.

之後就每況愈下。

This isn't about politics.

你可能會想，這是政治。

This is just the algorithm figuring out human behavior.

但並不是，重點不是政治，

I once watched a video about vegetarianism on YouTube

這只是猜測人類行為的演算法。

and YouTube recommended and autoplayed a video about being vegan.

我曾經上 YouTube 看一支關於吃素的影片，

It's like you're never hardcore enough for YouTube.

而 YouTube 推薦並自動播放了 一支關於嚴格素食主義者的影片。

(Laughter)

似乎對 YouTube 而言 你的口味永遠都還不夠重。

So what's going on?

（笑聲）

Now, YouTube's algorithm is proprietary,

發生了什麼事？

but here's what I think is going on.

YouTube 的演算法是專有的，

The algorithm has figured out

但我認為發生的事是這樣的：

that if you can entice people

演算法發現到，

into thinking that you can show them something more hardcore,

如果誘使人們思索

they're more likely to stay on the site

你還能提供他們更重口味的東西，

watching video after video going down that rabbit hole

他們就更可能會留在網站上，

while Google serves them ads.

看一支又一支的影片， 一路掉進兔子洞，

Now, with nobody minding the ethics of the store,

同時 Google 還給他們看廣告。

these sites can profile people

沒人在意商家倫理的情況下，

who are Jew haters,

這些網站能夠描繪人的特性，

who think that Jews are parasites

哪些人痛恨猶太人，

and who have such explicit anti-Semitic content,

認為猶太人是寄生蟲，

and let you target them with ads.

以及哪些人明確地反猶太人，

They can also mobilize algorithms

讓你針對他們提供廣告。

to find for you look-alike audiences,

它們也能動員演算法，

people who do not have such explicit anti-Semitic content on their profile

為你找出相近的觀眾群，

but who the algorithm detects may be susceptible to such messages,

那些側看不怎麼明顯反猶太人，

and lets you target them with ads, too.

但是被演算法偵測出來 很容易受到這類訊息影響的人，

Now, this may sound like an implausible example,

讓你針對他們提供廣告。

but this is real.

這可能聽起來像是個 難以置信的例子，

ProPublica investigated this

但它是真實的。

and found that you can indeed do this on Facebook,

ProPublica 調查了這件事，

and Facebook helpfully offered up suggestions

且發現你的確可以 在臉書上做到這件事，

on how to broaden that audience.

且臉書很有效地提供建議，

BuzzFeed tried it for Google, and very quickly they found,

告訴你如何拓展觀眾群。

yep, you can do it on Google, too.

BuzzFeed 用 Google 做了實驗，他們很快發現，

And it wasn't even expensive.

是的，你也可以在 Google 上這樣做。

The ProPublica reporter spent about 30 dollars

而且甚至不貴。

to target this category.

ProPublica 的記者 花了大約 30 美元

So last year, Donald Trump's social media manager disclosed

來針對這個類別。

that they were using Facebook dark posts to demobilize people,

去年川普的社交媒體經理透露，

not to persuade them,

他們利用臉書的隱藏廣告貼文 來「反動員」選民，

but to convince them not to vote at all.

不是勸說或動員他們，

And to do that, they targeted specifically,

而是說服他們根本不去投票。

for example, African-American men in key cities like Philadelphia,

為做到這一點，他們準確設定目標，

and I'm going to read exactly what he said.

比如像費城這樣 關鍵城市的非裔美國男性，

I'm quoting.

讓我把他的話一字不漏讀出來。

They were using "nonpublic posts

以下為引述。

whose viewership the campaign controls

他們使用「非公開貼文，

so that only the people we want to see it see it.

那些貼文的觀看權限 由競選團隊來控制，

We modeled this.

所以只有我們挑的讀者才看得到。

It will dramatically affect her ability to turn these people out."

我們為此建立了模型，

What's in those dark posts?

會嚴重影響到她（指希拉蕊） 動員那些人去投票的能力。」

We have no idea.

那些隱藏廣告貼文中有什麼內容？

Facebook won't tell us.

我們不知道。

So Facebook also algorithmically arranges the posts

臉書不告訴我們。

that your friends put on Facebook, or the pages you follow.

所以臉書也用演算法的方式 來安排你的朋友

It doesn't show you everything chronologically.

在臉書的貼文或是你追蹤的頁面。

It puts the order in the way that the algorithm thinks will entice you

它並不會照時間順序 來呈現所有內容。

to stay on the site longer.

呈現順序是演算法認為

Now, so this has a lot of consequences.

能引誘你在網站上逗留久一點的順序。

You may be thinking somebody is snubbing you on Facebook.

所以，這麼做有許多後果。

The algorithm may never be showing your post to them.

你可能會認為有人在臉書上冷落你。

The algorithm is prioritizing some of them and burying the others.

也許是演算法根本沒把 你的貼文呈現給他們看。