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  • One winter morning, a couple of years ago,

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Guoqing Yang

  • I was driving to work in Johannesburg, South Africa,

    幾年前的一個冬天早晨,

  • and noticed a haze hanging over the city.

    我開車去上班,地點是 南非的約翰尼斯堡,

  • I make that drive on most days,

    我注意到全市籠罩在霧霾中。

  • so it was unusual that I hadn't noticed this before.

    我幾乎天天會駛過那條路,

  • Johannesburg is known for its distinctive skyline,

    但以前都沒注意到這現象, 這點很不尋常。

  • which I could barely see that morning.

    約翰尼斯堡以特別的天際線聞名,

  • It didn't take long for me to realize that I was looking at an enormous cloud

    那天早上卻幾乎看不見。

  • of air pollution.

    沒多久,我就意會過來了, 原來我看到的是一大片

  • The contrast between the scenic environment I knew

    空氣污染。

  • and this smog-covered skyline

    我所知道的景色和這被煙霧遮蓋的

  • stirred up something within me.

    天際線之間有明顯對比,

  • I was appalled by the possibility of this city of bright and vivid sunsets

    讓我內心產生起伏。

  • being overrun by a dull haze.

    我擔心很有可能, 這個有著鮮明生動日落的城市

  • At that moment, I felt an urge to do something about it,

    會被晦暗的霧霾壟照。

  • but I didn't know what.

    那時,我有個衝動,想要做點什麼,

  • All I knew was I couldn't just stand idly by.

    但我不知道該做什麼。

  • The main challenge was,

    我只知道,我不能袖手旁觀。

  • I didn't know much about environmental science

    主要的難處在於,

  • air-quality management

    我不太了解環境科學、

  • or atmospheric chemistry.

    空氣品質管理,

  • I am a computer engineer,

    或大氣化學。

  • and I was pretty sure I couldn't code my way out of this air pollution problem.

    我是電腦工程師,

  • (Laughter)

    我很確定,空氣污染問題 不能靠寫程式解決。

  • Who was I to do anything about this issue?

    (笑聲)

  • I was but a citizen.

    我算哪根蔥, 能為這個議題做出貢獻?

  • In the following years, I learned a very important lesson,

    我不過是個市井小民。

  • a lesson we all need to take to heart if we are to work towards a better future.

    接下來幾年,我學到了 很重要的一課,

  • Even if you're not an expert in a particular domain,

    若想要努力朝更好的未來邁進, 我們都應該把這一課銘記在心。

  • your outside expertise may hold the key

    即使你不是特定領域的專家,

  • to solving big problems within that domain.

    你在外面的專長有可能反而是

  • Sometimes the unique perspective you have

    在該領域中解決重大問題的關鍵。

  • can result in unconventional thinking that can move the needle,

    有時,你獨有的觀點,

  • but you need to be bold enough to try.

    會帶來不一樣的非慣例思考, 進而左右局勢,

  • That's the only way you'll ever know.

    但你得要有膽識去嘗試。

  • What I knew back then

    那是唯一能知道結果的方式。

  • was that if I was even going to try to make a difference,

    那時,我知道的是,

  • I had to get smart about air pollution first,

    如果我要去嘗試造成改變,

  • and so I became a student again.

    我得先要對空氣污染有多一點知識,

  • I did a bit of basic research

    所以,我又回去當學生了。

  • and soon learned that air pollution

    我做了一點基本的研究,

  • is the world's biggest environmental health risk.

    很快就發現,空氣污染

  • Data from the World Health Organization

    是世界上最大的環境健康風險。

  • shows that almost 14 percent of all deaths worldwide in 2012

    來自世界衛生組織的資料顯示

  • were attributable to household and ambient air pollution,

    2012 年全世界 所有的死亡中,有近 14%

  • with most occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

    都是因為家庭及環境的 空氣污染所造成,

  • Ambient air pollution alone causes more deaths each year

    大多數都發生在中低收入的國家。

  • than malaria and HIV/AIDS.

    每年,單單是環境空氣 污染所造成的死亡數

  • In Africa, premature deaths from unsafe sanitation

    就超過瘧疾和愛滋病。

  • or childhood malnutrition

    在非洲,因為衛生不夠安全

  • pale in comparison to deaths due to air pollution,

    或兒時營養不良造成的過早死亡,

  • and it comes at a huge economic cost:

    完全比不上空氣污染造成的死亡,

  • over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,

    且這背後的經濟成本代價非常大:

  • according to a study by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

    2013 年就超過四千億美元,

  • Now, in my work,

    這數據來自經濟合作暨 發展組織的研究報告。

  • I explore new frontiers for artificial intelligence,

    在我的工作中,

  • where the symbiotic relationship between man and machine

    我要為人工智慧去探索新境界,

  • can find a beneficial footing and help us to make better decisions.

    要讓人類和機器之間的共生關係

  • As I thought about the air pollution problem,

    能夠找到有益的立足點, 並協助我們做更好的決策。

  • it became clear that we needed to find a way to make better decisions

    當我在思考空氣污染問題時,

  • about how we manage air pollution,

    我發現我們需要找到 一種比較好的決策方法,

  • and given the scale of the problem,

    來決定我們要如何管理空氣污染,

  • it was necessary to do it in a collaborative way.

    且問題的規模既然這麼大,

  • So I decided I'd better get to know some people working within the field.

    勢必得要用協同合作的方式來進行。

  • I started to speak to officials from the City of Johannesburg

    所以,我決定,我最好能認識 一些在那個領域中工作的人。

  • and other surrounding cities,

    我開始跟約翰尼斯堡

  • and I engaged the local scientific community,

    以及周圍其他城市的官員交流,

  • and I also made a few cold calls.

    我也去參加當地的科學社區,

  • The process of engagement I embarked upon

    我也打了一些推銷電話。

  • helped me to develop a deeper understanding of the problem.

    我所參與的這個過程,

  • It also helped me to avoid the trap

    協助我發展出對這個問題 更深一層的了解。

  • people in my profession sometimes fall into when trying to innovate,

    它也協助我避開我這一行的人

  • where we are quick to apply a technology

    在試圖創新時常會落入的陷阱,

  • before we've firmly grasped the problem at hand.

    我們會很快就應用一種技術,

  • I began to develop an idea

    卻還沒有對手上的問題 有完全的了解。

  • about what I could do to improve the situation.

    我開始萌生出一個點子,

  • I started by simply asking myself

    我想出了我能做什麼 來改善這個情況。

  • how I could bring together in some meaningful way

    一開始,我只是問我自己,

  • my skills in software engineering and artificial intelligence

    我要如何用某種有意義的方式,

  • and the expertise of the people I'd reached out to.

    把我在軟體工程和人工智慧的技能,

  • I wanted to create an online air-quality management platform

    和我去接觸的人的專長做結合。

  • that would uncover trends in pollution

    我想要創建一個線上的 空氣品質管理平台,

  • and project into the future

    它能夠發現污染中的趨勢,

  • to determine what outcomes can be expected.

    用來做未來預測,

  • I was determined to see my idea translate into a practical solution,

    來判斷可能會發生的結果。

  • but I faced uncertainty

    我很堅決要讓我的想法 變成實際的解決方案,

  • and had no guarantee of success.

    但我要面對不確定性,

  • What I had was a very particular set of engineering skills,

    且無法保證一定會成功。

  • skills I'd acquired over my career

    我擁有的,是非常 特別的一組工程技能,

  • (Laughter)

    在我的職涯中取得的技能,

  • that were new to people who had been working on the air pollution problem

    (笑聲)

  • for so many years.

    對於多年來都在處理 空氣污染問題的那些人,

  • What I have come to realize is that sometimes just one fresh perspective,

    我的技能是全新的。

  • one new skill set,

    我漸漸了解,有時候, 只要有一個新鮮的觀點,

  • can make the conditions right for something remarkable to happen.

    一組新的技能,

  • Our willpower and imagination are a guiding light,

    就可以改變條件, 讓很了不起的事情能夠發生。

  • enabling us to chart new paths and navigate through obstacles.

    我們的意志力和想像力 是引導我們的光,

  • Armed with a firmer understanding of the air pollution problem,

    讓我們能在地圖上畫出新路徑, 引導我們穿過障礙。

  • and having managed to source over a decade's worth of data

    在對於空氣污染問題 有更紮實的了解之後,

  • on air pollutant levels

    且找到辦法取得了超過十年的資料,

  • and the meteorological conditions for in and around Johannesburg,

    上面記錄約翰尼斯堡及其周圍地區 空氣污染程度和氣象條件,

  • my colleagues from South Africa and China and myself

    我和南非及中國的同事一起

  • created an air-quality decision support system

    創建了一個空氣品質決策支援系統,

  • that lives in the cloud.

    放在雲端。

  • This software system analyzes historical and real-time data

    這項軟體系統能分析 歷史資料和即時資料,

  • to uncover the spatial-temporal trends in pollution.

    找出在污染中的 「空間—時間」趨勢。

  • We then used new machine learning technology

    接著,我們採用新的機器學習技術,

  • to predict future levels of pollution

    來預測未來的污染程度,

  • for several different pollutants days in advance.

    能針對好幾種污染物, 在幾天前就做出預測。

  • This means that citizens can make better decisions

    這意味著,市民能做出更好的決策,

  • about their daily movements

    決定他們每天的活動,

  • and about where to settle their families.

    決定要將家人安置在何處。

  • We can predict adverse pollution events ahead of time,

    我們能夠事先預測有害的污染事件,

  • identify heavy polluters,

    辨識出嚴重的污染源,

  • and they can be ordered by the relevant authorities

    如此一來,相關當權機關就可以下令

  • to scale back their operations.

    要求它們重新調整營運。

  • Through assisted scenario planning,

    透過協助性質的情境規劃,

  • city planners can also make better decisions

    都市計畫員也能做出更好的決策,

  • about how to extend infrastructure,

    決定如何將基礎建設做延伸,

  • such as human settlements or industrial zones.

    比如人類住區或工業區。

  • We completed a pilot of our technology

    我們已經完成了這項技術的測試版,

  • that was run over a period of 120 days,

    執行了 120 天,

  • covering all of South Africa.

    含蓋了整個南非。

  • Our results were confirmed

    我們的結果得到了確認,

  • when we demonstrated a tight correlation

    因為我們得以呈現出在預測資料

  • between the forecasting data

    和我們從地面取得的實際資料

  • and the data we were getting on the ground.

    之間有著密切的相關性。

  • Through our leadership,

    透過我們的領導,

  • we have brought cutting-edge, world-leading assets

    我們帶來了引領世界的尖端資產,

  • that can perform air-quality forecasting

    能進行空氣品質預測,

  • at an unprecedented resolution and accuracy,

    解析度和正確率都是前所未見的,

  • benefiting the city that I drove into one winter morning not very long ago,

    讓我不久之前在冬天早晨 開車進入的那個城市能夠受惠,

  • and thought to myself,

    那時我還心想:

  • "Something is wrong here. I wonder what can be done?"

    「這裡出了某種問題。 不知道我能做什麼?」

  • So here is the point:

    所以,重點是,

  • What if I'd not investigated the problem of air pollution further?

    若我當初沒有進一步調查 空氣污染的問題,會如何?

  • What if I'd not shown some concern for the state of the environment

    若我當初沒有去關心環境狀況,

  • and just hoped that someone, somewhere, was taking care of the matter?

    而只是希望某個地方的某個人 會把事情處理好,會如何?

  • What I have learned is that,

    我所學到的是,

  • when embarking on a challenging endeavor

    當要著手進行一項很有挑戰性

  • that advances a cause that we firmly believe in,

    且能夠推動我們堅信之理念的嘗試時,

  • it is important to focus on the possibility of success

    重要的是要把焦點放在 成功的可能性上,

  • and consider the consequence of not acting.

    並去思考不採取行動會有什麼後果。

  • We should not get distracted by resistance and opposition,

    我們不應被抗拒和反對給分心,

  • but this should motivate us further.

    這反而應該會更進一步激勵我們。

  • So wherever you are in the world,

    所以,不論你在世界的哪個角落,

  • the next time you find

    下一次,當你發現

  • that there's some natural curiosity you have

    你天生的某種好奇心被激起時,

  • that is being piqued,

    且它和你在乎的事物有關,

  • and it's about something you care about,

    且你有某種瘋狂或大膽的點子,

  • and you have some crazy or bold ideas,

    也許它超出了你的專業領域,

  • and perhaps it's outside the realm of your expertise,

    記得,問問自己這個問題:

  • ask yourself this:

    為什麼不?

  • Why not?

    為什麼不用你自己的方式,

  • Why not just go ahead and tackle the problem

    盡你所能,放手一搏 去處理那個問題?

  • as best as you can, in your own way?

    你可能會得到很棒的驚喜。

  • You may be pleasantly surprised.

    謝謝。

  • Thank you.

    (掌聲)

  • (Applause)

One winter morning, a couple of years ago,

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Guoqing Yang

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 污染 空氣 預測 決策 技能

【TED】Tapiwa Chiwewe:解決大問題不一定要專家 (You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems | Tapiwa Chiwewe) (【TED】Tapiwa Chiwewe: You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems (You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems | Tapiwa Chiwewe))

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