Placeholder Image

字幕列表 影片播放

  • In Kenya, 1984 is known

    譯者: Regina Chu 審譯者: Bighead Ge

  • as the year of the cup,

    在肯亞,人稱 1984 年

  • or the goro goro.

    為杯子之年,

  • The goro goro is a cup used to measure

    或稱咕嚕咕嚕。

  • two kilograms of maize flower on the market,

    咕嚕咕嚕是一種量杯,

  • and the maize flower is used to make ugali,

    在市場上拿來秤兩公斤的玉米粒,

  • a polenta-like cake that is eaten together with vegetables.

    而玉米粒則拿來煮烏伽黎,

  • Both the maize and the vegetables are grown

    一種很像義式玉米粥的餅, 與蔬菜同吃。

  • on most Kenyan farms,

    玉米及蔬菜兩者都種在

  • which means that most families can feed themselves

    大部分的肯亞農場上,

  • from their own farm.

    也就是說大部分的家庭

  • One goro goro can feed three meals

    都能自給自足。

  • for an average family,

    一杯咕嚕咕嚕能做出三頓餐點

  • and in 1984, the whole harvest

    給一個普通人家吃,

  • could fit in one goro goro.

    而 1984 年,一年的總收穫

  • It was and still is one of the worst droughts

    只能裝滿一杯咕嚕咕嚕。

  • in living memory.

    這到現在仍是人們記憶中 最慘的旱災。

  • Now today, I insure farmers against droughts

    今天,我提供保險給農民對抗

  • like those in the year of the cup,

    像杯子之年的旱災。

  • or to be more specific, I insure the rains.

    或更精確的說,我確保降雨。

  • I come from a family of missionaries

    我來自一個傳教士家族,

  • who built hospitals in Indonesia,

    先人曾在印尼蓋醫院,

  • and my father built a psychiatric hospital

    我的父親則在坦尚尼亞 蓋了間精神病醫院。

  • in Tanzania.

    這是我,五歲,在那間醫院前。

  • This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.

    我從不認為他們會想到我長大後

  • I don't think they thought I'd grow up

    要賣保險。(笑聲)

  • to sell insurance. (Laughter)

    所以讓我告訴你們這怎麼發生的。

  • So let me tell you how that happened.

    2008 年,我在

  • In 2008, I was working

    盧安達的農業部工作,

  • for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,

    我的頂頭上司升了官

  • and my boss had just been promoted

    成為部長。

  • to become the minister.

    她發起一項雄心勃勃的計畫

  • She launched an ambitious plan

    要在她的國家開始綠色革命,

  • to start a green revolution in her country,

    在我們瞭解狀況之前, 我們就從國外先進口

  • and before we knew it, we were importing

    很多噸的肥料及種子,

  • tons of fertilizer and seed

    並告訴農民如何施肥及種植。

  • and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer

    幾個星期後,

  • and plant.

    國際貨幣基金組織來拜訪我們,

  • A couple of weeks later,

    並問我的部長,

  • the International Monetary Fund visited us,

    「部長,這是好事,你要幫農民

  • and asked my minister,

    達成糧食安全, 但是如果不下雨怎麼辦?」

  • "Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers

    我的部長很自負的回答

  • reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"

    也有點挑戰的意味,

  • My minister answered proudly

    「我要祈禱降雨。」

  • and somewhat defiantly,

    這回答終結了討論。

  • "I am going to pray for rain."

    在回到部裡的車上,

  • That ended the discussion.

    她轉頭向我說

  • On the way back to the ministry in the car,

    「蘿絲,妳一向都對財務很有興趣。

  • she turned around to me and said,

    去替我們找找保險。」

  • "Rose, you've always been interested in finance.

    六年過了,

  • Go find us some insurance."

    去年我很幸運

  • It's been six years since,

    能成為保險團隊的一員,

  • and last year I was fortunate enough

    替在肯亞及盧安達 超過十八萬五千民農夫

  • to be part of a team that insured

    投保旱災險。

  • over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda

    他們擁有平均約半畝的地,

  • against drought.

    保費平均在二歐元左右。

  • They owned an average of half an acre

    這是微型保險。

  • and paid on average two Euros in premium.

    那麼,傳統保險業不會保

  • It's microinsurance.

    只有二、三歐元保費的保險,

  • Now, traditional insurance doesn't work

    因為傳統的保險要靠查勘農場。

  • with two to three Euros of premium,

    在德國這裡,一位農夫可能會在

  • because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.

    農季開始、期中、

  • A farmer here in Germany would be visited

    及農季結束時被查勘, 如果有損失,

  • for the start of the season, halfway through,

    還要再來估算賠償金。

  • and at the end, and again if there was a loss,

    對一個中非的小農,

  • to estimate the damages.

    這些查勘怎麼算

  • For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,

    都不合算。

  • the maths of doing those visits

    所以我們要靠科技 及數據代替現場查勘。

  • simply don't add up.

    這個衛星測量

  • So instead, we rely on technology and data.

    一個地方有沒有雲,

  • This satellite measures

    因為你想一下:

  • whether there were clouds or not,

    如果有雲,大概就會降雨,

  • because think about it:

    但是如果沒有雲,

  • If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,

    那一點下雨的機會都沒有。

  • but if there are no clouds,

    這些影像顯示

  • then it's actually impossible for it to rain.

    這個季節肯亞雨季來臨。

  • These images show the onset of the rains

    你看大概在三月六日

  • this season in Kenya.

    雲飄進來然後消失,

  • You see that around March 6,

    然後大約在三月十一日

  • the clouds move in and then disappear,

    雲真的進來了。

  • and then around the March 11,

    那個,及這些雲

  • the clouds really move in.

    是本年雨季的開始。

  • That, and those clouds,

    這個衛星涵蓋整個非洲,

  • were the onset of the rains this year.

    並可回溯早至 1984 年,

  • This satellite covers the whole of Africa

    而這很重要,因為如果你知道

  • and goes back as far as 1984,

    一個地方在過去 30 年

  • and that's important, because if you know

    發生過多少次旱災,

  • how many times a place has had a drought

    你就可以做個還滿準的估算

  • in the last 30 years,

    看看未來乾旱的機會有多大。

  • you can make a pretty good estimate

    也就是說你可以標價

  • what the chances are of drought in the future,

    在乾旱風險上。

  • and that means that you can put a price tag

    只靠數據是不夠的。

  • on the risk of drought.

    我們還設計了農事演算法,

  • The data alone isn't enough.

    告訴我們一種作物需要 多少降雨及何時降雨。

  • We devise agronomic algorithms

    舉個例,在玉米栽植期

  • which tell us how much rainfall a crop needs and when.

    你需要兩天的雨

  • For example, for maize at planting,

    給農夫下種用,

  • you need to have two days of rain

    然後要每兩個星期下一次雨

  • for farmers to plant,

    讓作物好好發芽。

  • and then it needs to rain once every two weeks

    之後,你要每三星期下一次雨

  • for the crop to properly germinate.

    讓作物長葉子,

  • After that, you need rain every three weeks

    在開花期,你需要更頻繁的降雨,

  • for the crop to form its leaves,

    大概每十天一次讓作物結穗。

  • whereas at flowering, you need it to rain more frequently,

    在生長期尾聲,

  • about once every 10 days for the crop to form its cob.

    你其實不想要下雨

  • At the end of the season,

    因為雨會破壞作物收成。

  • you actually don't want it to rain,

    要做到這麼廣的設計的確很難

  • because rains then can damage the crop.

    但結果證明賣保險才是真的挑戰。

  • Devising such a cover is difficult,

    我們給自己制定還算合理的目標,

  • but it turned out the real challenge

    希望在第一季後 有約 500 位農夫投保。

  • was selling insurance.

    在幾個月的強力行銷後,

  • We set ourselves a modest target

    我們簽下了總計

  • of 500 farmers insured after our first season.

    185 位農夫。

  • After a couple of months' intense marketing,

    我好失望,非常不解。

  • we had signed up the grand total

    每個人都說農夫

  • of 185 farmers.

    想要買保險,

  • I was disappointed and confounded.

    但是我們的主要客戶就是不買。

  • Everybody kept telling me that farmers

    他們在觀望會發生什麼事,

  • wanted insurance,

    不信任保險公司,

  • but our prime customers simply weren't buying.

    或是想,「我都撐了這麼多年了,

  • They were waiting to see what would happen,

    為什麼現在還要我買保險?」

  • didn't trust insurance companies,

    在座很多人都知道微型信貸,

  • or thought, "I've managed for so many years.

    就是提供窮人一小筆貸款的方法,

  • Why would I buy insurance now?"

    由穆罕默德·尤納斯首創,

  • Now many of you know microcredit,

    他得了諾貝爾和平獎,

  • the method of providing small loans to poor people

    因他在孟加拉鄉村銀行的作為。

  • pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,

    事實證明,賣微型信貸

  • who won the Nobel Peace Prize

    與賣一般保險截然不同。

  • for his work with the Grameen Bank.

    在信貸方面, 農夫必須得到銀行的信任,

  • Turns out, selling microcredit

    如果成功了,銀行就會墊款給他。

  • isn't the same as selling insurance.

    那是很吸引人的提議。

  • For credit, a farmer needs to earn the trust of a bank,

    在保險方面,

  • and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.

    農夫得信任保險公司,

  • That's an attractive proposition.

    還得預付保險公司錢。

  • For insurance, the farmer needs to trust

    那是非常不同的價值主張。

  • the insurance company, and needs

    所以保險的漲勢很慢

  • to advance the insurance company money.

    到目前為止只有 4.4% 的非洲人

  • It's a very different value proposition.

    在 2012 年投保,

  • And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,

    而且還有半數是來自同一個國家,

  • with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans

    南非。

  • taking up insurance in 2012,

    我們試了幾年

  • and half of that number is in one country,

    要直接賣保險給農夫,

  • South Africa.

    行銷成本很高,

  • We tried for some years

    成功卻極為有限。

  • selling insurance directly to farmers,

    然後我們才知道已經有很多組織

  • with very high marketing cost

    與農夫合作:

  • and very limited success.

    種苗公司、微型金融機構、

  • Then we realized that there were many organizations

    手機公司、

  • working with farmers:

    政府單位。

  • seed companies, microfinance institutions,

    他們都提供貸款給農民,

  • mobile phone companies,

    而且常常就在他們完成貸款之前,

  • government agencies.

    農民會說,

  • They were all providing loans to farmers,

    「可是如果不下雨怎麼辦?

  • and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,

    這樣我要怎麼還貸款?」

  • the farmer would say,

    這種組織很多

  • "But what if it doesn't rain?

    都會自行吸收風險,

  • How do you expect me to repay my loan?"

    只希望那一年

  • Many of these organizations

    最壞的情況不會發生。

  • were taking on the risk themselves,

    但是,大部分的組織

  • simply hoping that that year,

    都會限制他們在農業部門的成長。

  • the worst wouldn't happen.

    他們無法承擔這種風險。

  • Most of the organizations, however,

    這些組織就成了我們的客戶,

  • were limiting their growth in agriculture.

    而且當你把信貸與保險結合,

  • They couldn't take on this kind of risk.

    有趣的事就發生了。

  • These organizations became our customers,

    讓我再說一個故事。

  • and when combining credit and insurance,

    2012 年二月初,在肯亞西部

  • interesting things can happen.

    雨季開始了,而且很早就開始。

  • Let me tell you one more story.

    當雨季早早開始,農夫都很受鼓舞,

  • At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,

    因為這通常意味著這季會有好收成。

  • the rains started, and they started early,

    所以他們開始借貸栽種。

  • and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,

    接下來三星期,

  • because it usually means that the season is going to be good.

    連一滴雨都沒有,

  • So they took out loans and planted.

    原本發芽得很好的作物

  • For the next three weeks,

    枯萎死亡。

  • there wasn't a single drop of rain,

    我們擔保一家微型金融機構的貸款,

  • and the crops that had germinated so well

    而他們已經提供貸款

  • shriveled and died.

    給那個地區大約六千民農夫,

  • We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution

    我們打電話給他們,說:

  • that had provided those loans

    「聽好,我們瞭解旱情。

  • to about 6,000 farmers in that area,

    我們會幫你一把。

  • and we called them up and said,

    我們會在季末時給你二十萬歐元。」

  • "Look, we know about the drought.

    他們說:「哇,那很棒,

  • We've got you.

    但是那太遲了。

  • We'll give you 200,000 Euros at the end of the season."

    你能不能現在就把錢給我們?

  • They said, "Wow, that's great,

    這樣這些農夫還能及時補植,

  • but that'll be late.

    這季還有收穫。」

  • Could you give us the money now?

    所以我們說服我們的保險事業夥伴,

  • Then these farmers can still replant

    之後那個四月,這些農夫補植。

  • and can get a harvest this season."

    我們把補植的想法 告訴一家種苗公司,

  • So we convinced our insurance partners,

    並說服他們把保險的費用

  • and later that April, these farmers replanted.

    加在每一袋種子上,

  • We took the idea of replanting to a seed company

    在每一袋種子裡, 我們都包一張小卡,

  • and convinced them to price the cost of insurance

    上面有一個數字,

  • into every bag of seed,

    當農夫打開那張卡片,

  • and in every bag, we packed a card

    他們就把上面的數字傳給我們,

  • that had a number on it,

    那個數字可以實際幫助我們

  • and when the farmers would open the card,

    確定那位農夫的地點,

  • they'd text in that number,

    並把他們寫進一個衛星像元裡。

  • and that number would actually help us

    衛星就可以測量

  • to locate the farmer

    未來三星期的降雨。

  • and allocate them to a satellite pixel.

    如果沒下雨

  • A satellite would then measure the rainfall

    我們就換新的種子給他們。

  • for the next three weeks,

    第一批—

  • and if it didn't rain,

    (掌聲)等等,我還沒講完!

  • we'd replace their seed.

    第一批這個補植保證的受益人,

  • One of the first

    其中有一位叫波思科·米尼。

  • (Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!

    之後那年八月我們去查訪他的農田,

  • One of the first beneficiaries of this replanting guarantee

    我真的很想讓你們看看他臉上

  • was Bosco Mwinyi.

    在展示他的收穫給我們看時的笑容。

  • We visited his farm later that August,

    因為那溫暖了我的心,

  • and I wish I could show you the smile on his face

    而且讓我瞭解為什麼賣保險

  • when he showed us his harvest,

    是件好事。

  • because it warmed my heart

    但你知道,他堅持

  • and it made me realize why selling insurance

    要我們把他所有的收成 都照在一張相片裡,

  • can be a good thing.

    所以我們得把鏡頭拉很遠。

  • But you know, he insisted

    保險確保了他那季的收成,

  • that we get his whole harvest in the picture,

    而我相信今天,

  • so we had to zoom out a lot.

    我們擁有一切的方法, 能賦予非洲農民

  • Insurance secured his harvest that season,

    掌握他們自己命運的能力。

  • and I believe that today,

    不再有杯子之年。

  • we have all the tools to enable African farmers

    相反的,我很期待,至少一點點

  • to take control of their own destiny.

    保險之年,

  • No more years of the cup.

    或大豐收之年。

  • Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,

    謝謝。

  • the year of the insurance,

    (掌聲)

  • or the year of the great harvest.

  • Thank you.

  • (Applause)

In Kenya, 1984 is known

譯者: Regina Chu 審譯者: Bighead Ge

字幕與單字

影片操作 你可以在這邊進行「影片」的調整,以及「字幕」的顯示

B1 中級 中文 美國腔 TED 保險 農夫 作物 貸款 農民

【TED】羅絲-高斯林加:農作物保險,一個值得播種的想法(Rose Goslinga:農作物保險,一個值得播種的想法)。 (【TED】Rose Goslinga: Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding (Rose Goslinga: Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding))

  • 26 0
    Zenn 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
影片單字