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  • I'm going to talk today about energy and climate.

    今天我要談的是關於能量和氣候。

  • And that might seem a bit surprising because

    這或許有點讓人意外,因為你們也知道

  • my full-time work at the Foundation is mostly about vaccines and seeds,

    我在基金會全職的工作主要關於疫苗和種子,

  • about the things that we need to invent and deliver

    這些急需要發明且散佈的事情

  • to help the poorest two billion live better lives.

    以幫助20億貧民過更好生活。

  • But energy and climate are extremely important to these people --

    但是能源和氣候對這些人也極其重要,

  • in fact, more important than to anyone else on the planet.

    實際上,比對地球其他人來說更重要。

  • The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won't grow:

    氣候變得更壞,使得他們的穀物將有很多年無法成長。

  • There will be too much rain, not enough rain,

    有時將有太多雨,有時將會雨量不足。

  • things will change in ways

    所有改變的方式

  • that their fragile environment simply can't support.

    以他們脆弱環境實在難以支撐。

  • And that leads to starvation, it leads to uncertainty, it leads to unrest.

    結果將導致飢餓。 導致不確定的恐慌和動亂。

  • So, the climate changes will be terrible for them.

    因此,氣候變化對於他們是十分可怕的。

  • Also, the price of energy is very important to them.

    此外,能源的價格對他們非常重要。

  • In fact, if you could pick just one thing to lower the price of,

    實際上,如果你僅僅能挑一件東西降低價格,

  • to reduce poverty, by far you would pick energy.

    以降低貧困,目前能源是最佳選項。

  • Now, the price of energy has come down over time.

    現下,能源的價格已經下降好長一段時間。

  • Really advanced civilization is based on advances in energy.

    真的,人類的文明進步是基於能量的進展。

  • The coal revolution fueled the Industrial Revolution,

    煤的革命點燃工業革命,

  • and, even in the 1900s we've seen a very rapid decline in the price of electricity,

    並且,在20世紀我們看見電力的價格迅速下降。

  • and that's why we have refrigerators, air-conditioning,

    因此我們才能擁有冰箱,空調系統,

  • we can make modern materials and do so many things.

    並且能製造進步的材料及那麼多東西。

  • And so, we're in a wonderful situation with electricity in the rich world.

    也因此,我們處於一個有電力的美好富足世界。

  • But, as we make it cheaper -- and let's go for making it twice as cheap --

    如果,當我們使它更便宜 --讓我們努力使它兩倍便宜 --

  • we need to meet a new constraint,

    我們就必須面臨新的限制,

  • and that constraint has to do with CO2.

    這限制就是CO2(二氧化碳)。

  • CO2 is warming the planet,

    CO2使地球變暖,

  • and the equation on CO2 is actually a very straightforward one.

    而描述CO2的方程式實際上是非常直觀的。

  • If you sum up the CO2 that gets emitted,

    如果你把所有排出的CO2加起來,

  • that leads to a temperature increase,

    那就會導致溫度增加,

  • and that temperature increase leads to some very negative effects:

    而溫度增加進而導致一些負面效果。

  • the effects on the weather; perhaps worse, the indirect effects,

    這效應對天氣有影響,更糟的是或許是其他間接的效應

  • in that the natural ecosystems can't adjust to these rapid changes,

    我們的自然生態系統不能適應這些迅速的變化,

  • and so you get ecosystem collapses.

    生態系統因而崩潰。

  • Now, the exact amount of how you map

    現在對於精確的數據對應

  • from a certain increase of CO2 to what temperature will be

    例如在CO2的增加量與溫度上昇幅度的對應

  • and where the positive feedbacks are,

    以及是否有正向的回饋的存在

  • there's some uncertainty there, but not very much.

    有些不確定性但不算太多

  • And there's certainly uncertainty about how bad those effects will be,

    當然對於這些效應有多糟的看法,也有不確定性

  • but they will be extremely bad.

    但方向上一定是相當糟的

  • I asked the top scientists on this several times:

    我好幾次就這議題問過幾位頂尖的科學家,

  • Do we really have to get down to near zero?

    我們真的必須將CO2減量至幾近零嗎?

  • Can't we just cut it in half or a quarter?

    只降一半或降至四分之一呢?

  • And the answer is that until we get near to zero,

    而答案是直到我們降至零之前,

  • the temperature will continue to rise.

    溫度還是繼續升高。

  • And so that's a big challenge.

    所以這是一大挑戰。

  • It's very different than saying "We're a twelve-foot-high truck trying to get under a ten-foot bridge,

    這跟如何讓一輛12英尺高的卡車穿過一座10英尺高的橋完全不同,

  • and we can just sort of squeeze under."

    我們只能用力向下緊壓

  • This is something that has to get to zero.

    要減量到零,有些事情必須考量。

  • Now, we put out a lot of carbon dioxide every year,

    現在,我們每年排出許多二氧化碳,

  • over 26 billion tons.

    超過260億公頓。

  • For each American, it's about 20 tons;

    大約是每名美國人20公頓。

  • for people in poor countries, it's less than one ton.

    對窮國的人們來說,每人不到一公頓。

  • It's an average of about five tons for everyone on the planet.

    地球上每人的平均大約5 公頓。

  • And, somehow, we have to make changes

    不管如何,我們都必須改變

  • that will bring that down to zero.

    以減量到零。

  • It's been constantly going up.

    它一直不斷上升。

  • It's only various economic changes that have even flattened it at all,

    曾有各種各樣的經濟變化使它的趨勢平緩,

  • so we have to go from rapidly rising

    因此我們必須努力從迅速上升的趨勢

  • to falling, and falling all the way to zero.

    開始讓它下降,並且一路下降到零。

  • This equation has four factors,

    這個方程式有四個因子。

  • a little bit of multiplication:

    及簡單的相乘。

  • So, you've got a thing on the left, CO2, that you want to get to zero,

    因此,左式有一因子CO2,你想要它趨於零,

  • and that's going to be based on the number of people,

    而那必須基於「人口的數量」,

  • the services each person's using on average,

    「平均每人享用的服務」,

  • the energy on average for each service,

    「每種服務的平均的能源」,

  • and the CO2 being put out per unit of energy.

    及「單位能源排出的CO2」。

  • So, let's look at each one of these

    現在,讓我們逐一審視

  • and see how we can get this down to zero.

    並且想想我們如何能把這變成零。

  • Probably, one of these numbers is going to have to get pretty near to zero.

    或許,這些數字之一必須讓它趨近於零。

  • Now that's back from high school algebra,

    現在讓我們複習中學的代數,

  • but let's take a look.

    讓我們瞧瞧。

  • First, we've got population.

    首先是人口。

  • The world today has 6.8 billion people.

    現下,世界有約68億人。

  • That's headed up to about nine billion.

    未來預計增到大約90億。

  • Now, if we do a really great job on new vaccines,

    現在,如果我們在新疫苗發展上有不錯的進展,

  • health care, reproductive health services,

    包括醫療保健,生育保健服務

  • we could lower that by, perhaps, 10 or 15 percent,

    或許會降低約10~15%

  • but there we see an increase of about 1.3.

    但目前是增加約1.3%

  • The second factor is the services we use.

    第2 個因子是我們使用的服務。

  • This encompasses everything:

    這包含了所有的事情,

  • the food we eat, clothing, TV, heating.

    我們吃的食品,衣服,電視,暖氣。

  • These are very good things:

    這些是非常好的東西,

  • getting rid of poverty means providing these services

    提供這些服務某種程度表示脫離了貧困

  • to almost everyone on the planet.

    如果能遍及地球上所有的人。

  • And it's a great thing for this number to go up.

    增加這數量其實是好事

  • In the rich world, perhaps the top one billion,

    在富有的世界,或許前10億人口,

  • we probably could cut back and use less,

    我們或許能縮減享受以減少用量,

  • but every year, this number, on average, is going to go up,

    但是每年,這平均數目是上升的,

  • and so, over all, that will more than double

    整體說來,將來會成為兩倍以上

  • the services delivered per person.

    提供每人所享有的服務量

  • Here we have a very basic service:

    現在我們來談一項非常基本的服務。

  • Do you have lighting in your house to be able to read your homework?

    你房子內有照明讓你能做你的家庭作業嗎?

  • And, in fact, these kids don't, so they're going out

    實際上,很多孩子沒有,因此他們必須到屋外

  • and reading their school work under the street lamps.

    並且在路燈下研讀他們的功課。

  • Now, efficiency, E, the energy for each service,

    再來,講到效率,E,指每種服務所需的能量,

  • here finally we have some good news.

    總算有一些好消息。

  • We have something that's not going up.

    某些事情並沒有增加。

  • Through various inventions and new ways of doing lighting,

    透過各式各樣的發明和製作照明設備的新方法,

  • through different types of cars, different ways of building buildings --

    透過不同的汽車類型,建築大樓的不同方法。

  • there are a lot of services where you can bring

    有許多你所使用的服務

  • the energy for that service down quite substantially.

    整體而言已大幅降低消耗的能量

  • Some individual services even bring it down by 90 percent.

    某些項目甚至降了幾乎90%

  • There are other services like how we make fertilizer,

    但仍有不少項目如肥料製造

  • or how we do air transport,

    及空中運輸等

  • where the rooms for improvement are far, far less.

    能夠改善的空間實在不大

  • And so, overall here, if we're optimistic,

    因此概括的看,如果我們是樂觀主義者

  • we may get a reduction of a factor of three to even, perhaps, a factor of six.

    我們有可能降低到三分之一,甚或到六分之一

  • But for these first three factors now,

    但是現在對這些前3 個因素來說,

  • we've gone from 26 billion to, at best, maybe 13 billion tons,

    我們或許充其量從260億降到130億公頓,

  • and that just won't cut it.

    且很難再往下降

  • So let's look at this fourth factor --

    因此讓我們看第4因素 --

  • this is going to be a key one --

    這將是關鍵的一項 --

  • and this is the amount of CO2 put out per each unit of energy.

    每消耗單位能量所排出的CO2的數量。

  • And so the question is: Can you actually get that to zero?

    問題是,你真的能讓它趨於零?

  • If you burn coal, no.

    燃燒煤,不可能。

  • If you burn natural gas, no.

    燃燒天然氣,不可能。

  • Almost every way we make electricity today,

    幾乎我們今天用來發電的任一方法,

  • except for the emerging renewables and nuclear, puts out CO2.

    除了新興的再生能源和核能,都會排出CO2。

  • And so, what we're going to have to do at a global scale,

    因此,我們以全球性角度考量將來必須做的,

  • is create a new system.

    是創建一新系統。

  • And so, we need energy miracles.

    我們需要能源奇蹟。

  • Now, when I use the term "miracle," I don't mean something that's impossible.

    我這裡使用奇蹟這個詞,並不意味著不可能發生。

  • The microprocessor is a miracle. The personal computer is a miracle.

    微處理器是一個奇蹟。 個人電腦是一個奇蹟。

  • The Internet and its services are a miracle.

    網際網路及其各項服務是一個奇蹟。

  • So, the people here have participated in the creation of many miracles.

    因此,在場各位已經共同參與創造過很多奇蹟。

  • Usually, we don't have a deadline,

    通常,我們不設期限,

  • where you have to get the miracle by a certain date.

    不要求你必須在某天讓奇蹟出現。

  • Usually, you just kind of stand by, and some come along, some don't.

    通常,你只要努力準備好,有些會發生,有些則沒有。

  • This is a case where we actually have to drive at full speed

    但在這件事上我們必須加足馬力

  • and get a miracle in a pretty tight timeline.

    並在緊迫的時限內創造出奇蹟

  • Now, I thought, "How could I really capture this?

    現在,我在想,我如何才能辦得到?

  • Is there some kind of natural illustration,

    是否有自然的圖示

  • some demonstration that would grab people's imagination here?"

    或其他現成的範例可以讓人們想像?

  • I thought back to a year ago when I brought mosquitos,

    我回想起一年前我帶一罐蚊子來到這裡

  • and somehow people enjoyed that.

    人們似乎覺得有趣

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • It really got them involved in the idea of,

    這確實讓他們了解到

  • you know, there are people who live with mosquitos.

    不少人與蚊子生活在一起

  • So, with energy, all I could come up with is this.

    所以,關於能源,我所能想到的就是這個

  • I decided that releasing fireflies

    我決定放些螢火蟲

  • would be my contribution to the environment here this year.

    這可能是今年我對環境所做的貢獻

  • So here we have some natural fireflies.

    所以我們將有一些天然的螢火蟲

  • I'm told they don't bite; in fact, they might not even leave that jar.

    我被告知這不會咬人,事實上,它們可能根本無法離開罐子

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Now, there's all sorts of gimmicky solutions like that one,

    現在有許多花拳繡腿的解決方案就如同剛剛的示範

  • but they don't really add up to much.

    而它們實際的貢獻不大

  • We need solutions -- either one or several --

    我們需要一個以上的方案

  • that have unbelievable scale

    必須具有不可置信的規模

  • and unbelievable reliability,

    以及難以想像的可靠性,

  • and, although there's many directions people are seeking,

    雖然人們正追尋很多的方向,

  • I really only see five that can achieve the big numbers.

    我只看見5種方式,可能達到足夠的需求。

  • I've left out tide, geothermal, fusion, biofuels.

    我已經放棄潮汐、地熱、核融合及生質能

  • Those may make some contribution,

    這些當然都能有些貢獻

  • and if they can do better than I expect, so much the better,

    但是必須比我預期的好很多、非常多才會有希望

  • but my key point here

    我要說的重點是

  • is that we're going to have to work on each of these five,

    我們將必須持續做這5項

  • and we can't give up any of them because they look daunting,

    我們不能因為氣餒而放棄它們

  • because they all have significant challenges.

    也不能因為有各項顯著挑戰而放棄

  • Let's look first at the burning fossil fuels,

    讓我們首先看石化燃料,

  • either burning coal or burning natural gas.

    無論是燃煤或者燒天然氣。

  • What you need to do there, seems like it might be simple, but it's not,

    必需要做的好像很簡單,但是實際很困難,

  • and that's to take all the CO2, after you've burned it, going out the flue,

    必須在燃燒後將CO2從煙中取出

  • pressurize it, create a liquid, put it somewhere,

    加壓液化並放置於某處

  • and hope it stays there.

    並希望能保存在那兒

  • Now we have some pilot things that do this at the 60 to 80 percent level,

    我們有一些先端的研究顯示可以做到百分之60到80的水準,

  • but getting up to that full percentage, that will be very tricky,

    但是做到全部, 那將非常難,

  • and agreeing on where these CO2 quantities should be put will be hard,

    此外選擇這些CO2同意存放的地點也將是艱難的課題,

  • but the toughest one here is this long-term issue.

    但是最困難的是長期的問題。

  • Who's going to be sure?

    誰能確定?

  • Who's going to guarantee something that is literally billions of times larger

    誰又能對比核廢料或其他廢料多數十億倍的東西

  • than any type of waste you think of in terms of nuclear or other things?

    提出保證?

  • This is a lot of volume.

    這體積十分可觀

  • So that's a tough one.

    因此艱困可期

  • Next would be nuclear.

    接著談到核能

  • It also has three big problems:

    也有三個大問題。

  • Cost, particularly in highly regulated countries, is high;

    成本花費,特別是在嚴格管制的國家,是相對高的。

  • the issue of the safety, really feeling good about nothing could go wrong,

    關於安全的問題,不會出錯聽起來感覺不錯,

  • that, even though you have these human operators,

    但仍究有人為操作的問題,

  • that the fuel doesn't get used for weapons.

    核燃料也不能用於武器

  • And then what do you do with the waste?

    然後,如何處理廢料?

  • And, although it's not very large, there are a lot of concerns about that.

    雖然它不是非常多,但是許多人在意此議題。

  • People need to feel good about it.

    人們必須感到安心。

  • So three very tough problems that might be solvable,

    這三個非常棘手的問題可能是能解決的

  • and so, should be worked on.

    因此,應該持續努力。

  • The last three of the five, I've grouped together.

    這五個中的其他三項,我打算一同討論。

  • These are what people often refer to as the renewable sources.

    這些是人們經常提到的所謂再生能源。

  • And they actually -- although it's great they don't require fuel --

    他們實際上 -- 雖然它們很偉大,他們不需要燃料 --

  • they have some disadvantages.

    但仍有一些不利條件。

  • One is that the density of energy gathered in these technologies

    其一是這些技術所能蒐集能源的密度

  • is dramatically less than a power plant.

    大幅的少於一座電廠。

  • This is energy farming, so you're talking about many square miles,

    這是能源農場,因此談的是好幾平方英里,

  • thousands of time more area than you think of as a normal energy plant.

    數千倍於你所能想到一個一般電廠的區域。

  • Also, these are intermittent sources.

    此外,這些是間歇能源。

  • The sun doesn't shine all day, it doesn't shine every day,

    太陽光並非整天都有,也不是每日都能普照,

  • and, likewise, the wind doesn't blow all the time.

    同樣,風也不是颳吹無歇。

  • And so, if you depend on these sources,

    因此,若你要依賴於這些能源,

  • you have to have some way of getting the energy

    你必須有得到能量的輔助方法

  • during those time periods that it's not available.

    以彌補無法提供的時段

  • So, we've got big cost challenges here,

    因此,我們有高成本的挑戰。

  • we have transmission challenges:

    我們有輸送的挑戰。

  • for example, say this energy source is outside your country;

    例如,能源來自國外,

  • you not only need the technology,

    你不僅需要技術,

  • but you have to deal with the risk of the energy coming from elsewhere.

    還必須處理來自別處能量的各項風險。

  • And, finally, this storage problem.

    最後,還有能源貯存問題。

  • And, to dimensionalize this, I went through and looked at

    為了要評估容量,我仔細審視查閱

  • all the types of batteries that get made --

    目前各種型態的電池

  • for cars, for computers, for phones, for flashlights, for everything --

    包括車用,電腦用,電話用,手電筒用及其他各種用途

  • and compared that to the amount of electrical energy the world uses,

    把那與世界使用的電能數量相比,

  • and what I found is that all the batteries we make now

    我發現目前完成所有的電池

  • could store less than 10 minutes of all the energy.

    僅能儲存全世界不到10 分鐘所消耗的能量。

  • And so, in fact, we need a big breakthrough here,

    因此,實際上,我們需要一個大的突破,

  • something that's going to be a factor of 100 better

    那必須是一個100倍優於

  • than the approaches we have now.

    我們現有努力的方法。

  • It's not impossible, but it's not a very easy thing.

    它並非不可能,但是也絕非是件容易的事。

  • Now, this shows up when you try to get the intermittent source

    因此當你努力於得到間歇能源

  • to be above, say, 20 to 30 percent of what you're using.

    如上分析,頂多只能達到使用需求的20~30%

  • If you're counting on it for 100 percent,

    如果要100%的依賴它

  • you need an incredible miracle battery.

    你必須有奇蹟電池

  • Now, how we're going to go forward on this -- what's the right approach?

    我們繼續談論這課題:正確的方向是什麼?

  • Is it a Manhattan Project? What's the thing that can get us there?

    它是一項曼哈頓計畫(製造原子彈的計畫)嗎? 能帶我們到達目標的是什麼?

  • Well, we need lots of companies working on this, hundreds.

    嗯,我們需要數以百計的公司投入工作

  • In each of these five paths, we need at least a hundred people.

    在這5 條道路中的每一項,至少需要100 人。

  • And a lot of them, you'll look at and say, "They're crazy." That's good.

    當中的許多人,你會覺得他們看起來瘋了。 那倒不賴。

  • And, I think, here in the TED group,

    這裡是TED,因此我想

  • we have many people who are already pursuing this.

    應該有不少人已經投入了吧

  • Bill Gross has several companies, including one called eSolar

    葛洛斯(Bill Gross)有幾家公司,其中一家叫eSolar

  • that has some great solar thermal technologies.

    有偉大的太陽熱技術。

  • Vinod Khosla's investing in dozens of companies

    維諾德·科斯拉(Vinod Khosla)投資許多公司

  • that are doing great things and have interesting possibilities,

    進行許多偉大的事情並已達令人感到興趣的可能性,

  • and I'm trying to help back that.

    目前我準備協助支持。

  • Nathan Myhrvold and I actually are backing a company

    內森·麥沃爾德(Nathan Myhrvold)和我事實上支持一家公司

  • that, perhaps surprisingly, is actually taking the nuclear approach.

    或許你會訝異,實際上是採取核能的方向。

  • There are some innovations in nuclear: modular, liquid.

    在核能界有一些創新,小型模組化反應器,液態反應器。

  • And innovation really stopped in this industry quite some ago,

    不久前這個領域的創新停滯一段時間,

  • so the idea that there's some good ideas laying around is not all that surprising.

    所以在此多少有一些好想法不足為奇

  • The idea of TerraPower is that, instead of burning a part of uranium --

    至於Terrapower公司的想法,不是只燃燒鈾的一部分,

  • the one percent, which is the U235 --

    約百分之一,也就是是U235(鈾235),

  • we decided, "Let's burn the 99 percent, the U238."

    我們決定,設法燃燒百分之99,U238(鈾238)。

  • It is kind of a crazy idea.

    這想法有點兒瘋狂。

  • In fact, people had talked about it for a long time,

    實際上,人們已經談論它很久,

  • but they could never simulate properly whether it would work or not,

    但他們無法適當的模擬確認是否能做到,

  • and so it's through the advent of modern supercomputers

    因此藉由現代超級電腦的進步