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  • Images like this, from the Auschwitz concentration camp,

    譯者: Ka Han Teoh 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

  • have been seared into our consciousness during the twentieth century

    像類似這樣的圖片,拍攝於奧斯威辛的集中營,

  • and have given us a new understanding of who we are,

    在20世紀已深深地絡印在我們的意識中,

  • where we've come from and the times we live in.

    並且讓我們對自己有新的認識,

  • During the twentieth century, we witnessed the atrocities

    重新審視我們所處的環境和時代

  • of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda and other genocides,

    在20世紀裡,我們目睹了

  • and even though the twenty-first century is only seven years old,

    斯大林,希特勒,毛澤東,波爾布特,盧旺達的暴行和其他種族大屠殺,

  • we have already witnessed an ongoing genocide in Darfur

    儘管進入21世紀只有7年的時間,

  • and the daily horrors of Iraq.

    我們已經目睹了正在達爾富爾進行的種族大屠殺

  • This has led to a common understanding of our situation,

    和伊拉克頻繁的恐怖襲擊。

  • namely that modernity has brought us terrible violence, and perhaps

    這導致了我們對所處的環境有這樣的認知,

  • that native peoples lived in a state of harmony that we have departed from, to our peril.

    那就是:"暴力行為是現代化導致的,

  • Here is an example

    或許原始人還可以和睦共處,而我們已經做到這點了

  • from an op-ed on Thanksgiving, in the Boston Globe

    舉個例子來說

  • a couple of years ago, where the writer wrote, "The Indian life

    波士頓環球報中的一篇專欄文章

  • was a difficult one, but there were no employment problems,

    幾年前,作家寫道:“印第安人的生活

  • community harmony was strong, substance abuse unknown,

    非常堅苦,但他們沒有就業的問題,

  • crime nearly non-existent, what warfare there was between tribes

    他們的社會和諧有力,沒有人濫用毒品,

  • was largely ritualistic and seldom resulted in indiscriminate

    幾乎沒有法罪率,即使兩個部落之間有發生戰爭

  • or wholesale slaughter." Now, you're all familiar with this treacle.

    大部分都是固守儀式的,很少導致部族歧視

  • We teach it to our children. We hear it on television

    和大屠殺的發生。"現在,大家對這佳話也已經耳熟能詳了。

  • and in storybooks. Now, the original title of this session

    我們從電視和故事書得知這些東西,並且我們也是這樣教育兒女。

  • was, "Everything You Know Is Wrong," and I'm going to present evidence

    好,今天這個講座的主題是

  • that this particular part of our common understanding is wrong,

    "你所知道的都是錯誤的",然後現在我就要出示證據

  • that, in fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are,

    推翻大家原先對暴力的一些錯誤認知

  • that violence has been in decline for long stretches of time,

    實際上,我們的祖先是比我們暴力許多的,

  • and that today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence.

    隨著時間的延繩,暴力出現的頻率才逐漸減少,

  • Now, in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,

    我想我們現在很有可能是活在人類最和平的時期

  • a statement like that might seem somewhere between hallucinatory

    在這個達富爾和伊拉克戰亂的時代

  • and obscene. But I'm going to try to convince you

    說這是最和平的時代,聽起來好像天方夜譚

  • that that is the correct picture. The decline of violence

    但我現在就要像你證明

  • is a fractal phenomenon. You can see it over millennia,

    事實正是如此。暴力頻率的下滑

  • over centuries, over decades and over years,

    是呈現不規律的現象。你可以從千年,

  • although there seems to have been a tipping point at the onset

    百年,十年或年為單位來觀察

  • of the Age of Reason in the sixteenth century. One sees it

    儘管在16世紀理性時代的初期

  • all over the world, although not homogeneously.

    似乎也存在過一個最高點

  • It's especially evident in the West, beginning with England

    這是世界上普遍的現象,而不是局限於一地

  • and Holland around the time of the Enlightenment.

    這種現象在西方尤其明顯,從英國

  • Let me take you on a journey of several powers of 10 --

    和荷蘭大約在啟蒙時代開始

  • from the millennium scale to the year scale --

    讓我帶你看看以10為基數

  • to try to persuade you of this. Until 10,000 years ago, all humans

    從以千年為單位到以年為單位

  • lived as hunter-gatherers, without permanent settlements

    來嘗試說服你。一直到一萬年以前,所有的人類

  • or government. And this is the state that's commonly thought

    以打獵維生,沒有固定的聚集地

  • to be one of primordial harmony. But the archaeologist

    或政府。這個狀態通常被認為是

  • Lawrence Keeley, looking at casualty rates

    原始的和諧狀態。但考古學家

  • among contemporary hunter-gatherers, which is our best source

    Lawrence Keeley,通過觀察當代狩獵者的死亡率

  • of evidence about this way of life, has shown a rather different conclusion.

    --這種的生活方式是我們最好的證據來源

  • Here is a graph that he put together

    --得出了不同的結論。

  • showing the percentage of male deaths due to warfare

    這是他所統計出來的圖表

  • in a number of foraging, or hunting and gathering societies.

    顯示出在一些遊牧民族中

  • The red bars correspond to the likelihood that a man will die

    男性因戰爭而死所占的比率

  • at the hands of another man, as opposed to passing away

    紅色條表示男性死於其他人之手的可能性

  • of natural causes, in a variety of foraging societies

    對應於自然死亡

  • in the New Guinea Highlands and the Amazon Rainforest.

    數據來自於新幾內高地和亞馬遜雨林的

  • And they range from a rate of almost a 60 percent chance that a man will die

    許多個遊牧民族。

  • at the hands of another man to, in the case of the Gebusi,

    他們成員死於其他人之手的比例接近高達60%

  • only a 15 percent chance. The tiny, little blue bar in the lower

    在Gebusi民族中,只有15%。

  • left-hand corner plots the corresponding statistic from United States

    在左下角的藍色條

  • and Europe in the twentieth century, and includes all the deaths

    描繪了20世紀的美國和歐洲

  • of both World Wars. If the death rate in tribal warfare had prevailed

    相應的數據,還包括了一,二次世界大戰死者。

  • during the 20th century, there would have been two billion deaths rather than 100 million.

    如果部落戰爭中的死亡率是普通的現象

  • Also at the millennium scale, we can look

    那麼在20世紀,死亡戰爭人數應該是20億而不是1億。

  • at the way of life of early civilizations such as the ones described

    同樣的以千年為單位,我們可以來看看

  • in the Bible. And in this supposed source of our moral values,

    被記錄在聖經早期的文明生活方式

  • one can read descriptions of what was expected in warfare,

    在聖經這本我們理論上的道德準則中

  • such as the following from Numbers 31: "And they warred

    我們可以看到當中對於戰爭行為的描述,

  • against the Midianites as the Lord commanded Moses,

    好比民數記31中記載道"他們就照著

  • and they slew all the males. And Moses said unto them,

    耶和華所吩咐摩西的與米甸人打戰,

  • 'Have you saved all the women alive? Now, therefore, kill every male

    他們把男丁都殺光。然後摩西對他們說,

  • among the little ones and kill every woman that hath known man

    "你們讓女人都活下來了嗎?因此,現在你們要把所有的男性

  • by lying with him, but all the women children that have not know a man

    和已經出嫁的女性都殺了

  • by lying with him keep alive for yourselves.'" In other words,

    但在女性中,凡還沒出嫁的,

  • kill the men; kill the children; if you see any virgins,

    你們都可以把她們留下來。"換句話說,

  • then you can keep them alive so that you can rape them.

    殺掉男人,殺掉小孩,但如果看到少女

  • You can find four or five passages in the Bible of this ilk.

    你就可以留下活口然後佔有她們。

  • Also in the Bible, one sees that the death penalty

    在聖經中你可以看到4,5段類似這樣的記錄。

  • was the accepted punishment for crimes such as homosexuality,

    同樣的死刑在聖經

  • adultery, blasphemy, idolatry, talking back to your parents --

    是可接受的懲罰方式例如對於同性戀,

  • (Laughter) -- and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.

    通姦,褻瀆,盲目崇拜,說父母壞話--

  • Well, let's click the zoom lens

    (笑聲)--在安息日勞動等罪行。

  • down one order of magnitude, and look at the century scale.

    好的,讓我們放大一格

  • Although we don't have statistics for warfare throughout

    來觀察一下以世紀為單位的數據。

  • the Middle Ages to modern times,

    儘管我們沒有所有

  • we know just from conventional history -- the evidence

    從中世紀到現代戰爭的數據

  • was under our nose all along that there has been a reduction

    我們僅用現有的歷史--

  • in socially sanctioned forms of violence.

    有關這樣的數據一直近在眼前:

  • For example, any social history will reveal that mutilation and torture

    人類社會所支持的暴力行為一直在減少

  • were routine forms of criminal punishment. The kind of infraction

    例如,文明史都有記錄截肢和酷刑

  • today that would give you a fine, in those days would result in

    是常見的罪行懲罰方式。

  • your tongue being cut out, your ears being cut off, you being blinded,

    如今只能讓你被罰款的違法,在過去可能會導致

  • a hand being chopped off and so on.

    你被割舌,割耳,挖眼,

  • There were numerous ingenious forms of sadistic capital punishment:

    斬手等結果

  • burning at the stake, disemboweling, breaking on the wheel,

    世界各地有無數中變態的斬首方式:

  • being pulled apart by horses and so on.

    捆在木上燒,開膛破肚,車裂,

  • The death penalty was a sanction for a long list of non-violent crimes:

    五馬分屍等等。

  • criticizing the king, stealing a loaf of bread. Slavery, of course,

    而准予處以死刑的非暴力罪行有很長的列表:

  • was the preferred labor-saving device, and cruelty was

    比如批評國王,偷麵包。當然,奴隸制,

  • a popular form of entertainment. Perhaps the most vivid example

    是種理想的節約勞力的制度,而殘酷的行為則被認為

  • was the practice of cat burning, in which a cat was hoisted

    是一種流行的娛樂方式。或許最生動的例子

  • on a stage and lowered in a sling into a fire,

    就是火燒貓的行為,貓在平台上吊被起來

  • and the spectators shrieked in laughter as the cat, howling in pain,

    通過吊索慢慢放入火中,

  • was burned to death.

    圍觀的人發出愉悅的尖叫聲,而貓在火中痛苦地嚎叫,

  • What about one-on-one murder? Well, there, there are good statistics,

    直到死亡。

  • because many municipalities recorded the cause of death.

    那麼有關於一對一凶殺呢?這裡有很好的統計資料,

  • The criminologist Manuel Eisner

    因為當時市政當局都記錄了死因。

  • scoured all of the historical records across Europe

    犯罪學家Manuel Eisner

  • for homicide rates in any village, hamlet, town, county

    整理了歐洲所有的歷史紀錄

  • that he could find, and he supplemented them

    涉及到他所能找到的鄉,村,鎮,縣

  • with national data, when nations started keeping statistics.

    然後他綜合了

  • He plotted on a logarithmic scale, going from 100 deaths

    有數據以來的所有國家數據

  • per 100,000 people per year, which was approximately the rate

    他用對數表示,從每年每十萬人有一百人死亡

  • of homicide in the Middle Ages. And the figure plummets down

    ,略等於中世紀的兇殺案發生率。

  • to less than one homicide per 100,000 people per year

    然後數據降低到了

  • in seven or eight European countries. Then, there is a slight uptick

    每年每十萬人中少於一例死亡率

  • in the 1960s. The people who said that rock 'n' roll would lead

    在七到八個歐洲國家。然後再1960年代稍有上漲。

  • to the decline of moral values actually had a grain of truth to that.

    那部分說搖滾導致道德淪失的人

  • But there was a decline from at least two orders of magnitude

    確實是有一定的道理。

  • in homicide from the Middle Ages to the present,

    但謀殺率數據至少減少有兩個數量級

  • and the elbow occurred in the early sixteenth century.

    從中世紀到現在,

  • Let's click down now to the decade scale.

    數據拐角出現在16世紀初期。

  • According to non-governmental organizations

    接下來以十年為單位來觀察。

  • that keep such statistics, since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,

    根據一些非政府組織的相關數據

  • there has been a steep decline in interstate wars,

    從1945年起,在歐洲和美洲

  • in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms, and in military coups,

    的國家之間的戰爭,

  • even in South America. Worldwide, there's been a steep decline

    嚴重的種族暴亂和軍事政變的數量急遽減少

  • in deaths in interstate wars. The yellow bars here show the number

    甚至連南美洲也是如此。全球普遍上,因國家之間的戰爭的死亡數量急遽減少

  • of deaths per war per year from 1950 to the present.

    這裡的黃色條顯示

  • And, as you can see, the death rate goes down from 65,000 deaths

    從1950年到現在每年每場戰爭的死亡數量。

  • per conflict per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 deaths

    正如你所見,死亡數從原先1950年的每年每場戰爭的65,000例

  • per conflict per year in this decade, as horrific as it is.

    減少至近十年每年每場戰爭的的2,000例死亡,

  • Even in the year scale, one can see a decline of violence.

    儘管這些戰爭都很殘酷。

  • Since the end of the Cold War, there have been fewer civil wars,

    就算是以年的單位也能看出暴力行為的減少

  • fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent reduction since post-World War II highs --

    自從冷戰結束,內戰就很少再發生,

  • and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick in homicide and violent crime.

    種族殘殺幾乎絕跡--其實,數據從二戰之後的最高點降低了90%--

  • This is from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics. You can see

    即使在60年代凶殺率的暴力有稍微回升。

  • that there is a fairly low rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,

    這是聯邦調查局的數據統計:你可以看到

  • then it soared upward for several decades, and began

    在50年代和60年代暴力行為發生率相對較低

  • a precipitous decline, starting in the 1990s, so that it went back

    經過幾十年的上升然後開始

  • to the level that was last enjoyed in 1960.

    從90年代急速的下降,一直回到

  • President Clinton, if you're here, thank you.

    將近60年代的水平

  • (Laughter)

    柯林頓總統,如果您在這裡,我對您說聲謝謝。

  • So the question is, why are so many people so wrong

    (笑聲)

  • about something so important? I think there are a number of reasons.

    所以問題是:為什麼這麼多的人對於如此重大的問題都持有錯誤觀念?

  • One of them is we have better reporting. The Associated Press

    我想原因很多。

  • is a better chronicler of wars over the surface of the Earth

    其一我們有了更多的媒體報導。"美聯社

  • than sixteenth-century monks were.

    比起16世紀的僧人

  • There's a cognitive illusion. We cognitive psychologists know that the easier it is

    是地球上更好的戰爭編年體的作者。"

  • to recall specific instances of something,

    還有一個認知的幻覺:認知的心理學家都知道

  • the higher the probability that you assign to it.

    曝光率越高的事

  • Things that we read about in the paper with gory footage

    越容易勾起你的具體回憶。

  • burn into memory more than reports of a lot more people dying

    我們每天閱讀報紙中血淋淋的描寫

  • in their beds of old age. There are dynamics in the opinion

    這對我們記憶的影響遠遠大於

  • and advocacy markets: no one ever attracted observers, advocates

    大部分人是在病床上自然老死的事實。

  • and donors by saying

    群衆意見導向和市場宣傳上有這樣的論調:

  • things just seem to be getting better and better.

    說"事情看來變得越來越好。"是不能引起觀察家,擁護者

  • (Laughter)

    和捐助者們的注意的

  • There's guilt about our treatment of native peoples

    (眾笑)

  • in modern intellectual life, and an unwillingness to acknowledge

    在這文明的社會裡處理原住民問題的過失

  • there could be anything good about Western culture.

    使我們普遍覺得很內疚,以致不情願承認

  • And of course, our change in standards can outpace the change

    關於西方文化一些好的方面。

  • in behavior. One of the reasons violence went down

    當然,我們在標準上的改變可以領先行為上的該變。

  • is that people got sick of the carnage and cruelty in their time.

    暴力行為下降的原因之一

  • That's a process that seems to be continuing,

    是因爲人們對大屠殺和殘忍性已經感到厭倦了。

  • but if it outstrips behavior by the standards of the day,

    在行爲上看起來還是個正在進行中的改變,

  • things always look more barbaric than they would have been

    但如果標準認知上的改變超過行為上的改變,

  • by historic standards. So today, we get exercised -- and rightly so --

    在歷史上看來事情永遠比以前更野蠻

  • if a handful of murderers get executed by lethal injection

    所以,今天,我們受到訓練--很應該地--

  • in Texas after a 15-year appeal process. We don't consider

    如果一小撮殺人犯在德州經過15年的上訴程序

  • that a couple of hundred years ago, they may have been burned

    被判以注射死刑的懲罰。我們不會去想

  • at the stake for criticizing the king after a trial

    在幾百年前,只因為他們批評了國王

  • that lasted 10 minutes, and indeed, that that would have been repeated

    在經過10分鐘的審判後

  • over and over again. Today, we look at capital punishment

    他們會被處以火刑--的卻,那種情形很可能會重複發生

  • as evidence of how low our behavior can sink,

    今天我們把極刑看成

  • rather than how high our standards have risen.

    我們行為淪落程度的證據,

  • Well, why has violence declined? No one really knows,

    而不是我們行為標準的進化。

  • but I have read four explanations, all of which, I think,

    那麼,為什麼暴力行為下降了?沒有人知道,

  • have some grain of plausibility. The first is, maybe

    但是我讀過4種解釋,它們都是我認為

  • Thomas Hobbes got it right. He was the one who said

    都是比較可信的。第一種解釋是:

  • that life in a state of nature was "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish

    或許Thomas Hobbes是對的。他說過

  • and short." Not because, he argued,

    自然狀態下生命是"孤獨,貧窮,骯髒,野蠻

  • humans have some primordial thirst for blood

    和短暫的。"不是因為

  • or aggressive instinct or territorial imperative,

    人們有著對血腥行為,

  • but because of the logic of anarchy. In a state of anarchy,

    侵略性或領土保護的原始本能,

  • there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors preemptively,

    而是因為無政府狀態的邏輯性。在無政府的狀態下,

  • before they invade you. More recently, Thomas Schelling

    在你鄰居侵犯你之前,先下手為強是無可避免的趨勢

  • gives the analogy of a homeowner who hears a rustling

    最近Thomas Schelling

  • in the basement. Being a good American, he has a pistol

    做了以下比喻:一個房東聽到地下室有沙沙的聲音

  • in the nightstand, pulls out his gun, and walks down the stairs.

    做為一位美國好公民,他的床頭櫃裡有一把手槍

  • And what does he see but a burglar with a gun in his hand.

    於是他裝上子彈,走下樓梯

  • Now, each one of them is thinking,

    然後他看到盜賊拿著一把手槍

  • "I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.

    他們倆個都在想

  • Maybe I had better shoot him, before he shoots me,

    "如果我不殺了他,就是他殺了我。"

  • especially since, even if he doesn't want to kill me,

    或許在他幹掉我之前,我得先下為強

  • he's probably worrying right now that I might kill him

    特別是,就算他沒有打算殺我

  • before he kills me." And so on.

    他現在很可能會認為在他幹掉我之前,我會先把他幹掉。"

  • Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly go through this train of thought,

    等等...

  • and will often raid their neighbors out of fear of being raided first.

    狩獵為生的人們經過這樣明確的思考,

  • Now, one way of dealing with this problem is by deterrence.

    通常會因為擔心自己先被幹掉而先幹掉他們的鄰居

  • You don't strike first, but you have a publicly announced policy

    如今,解決這個問題唯一的方法是通過威懾:

  • that you will retaliate savagely if you are invaded.

    你不先進攻,但是你先公開宣稱

  • The only thing is that it's

    如果你受到侵犯,你將會進行野蠻的報復

  • liable to having its bluff called, and therefore can only work

    這樣宣稱唯一的事情是

  • if it's credible. To make it credible, you must avenge all insults

    很可能被稱為虛張聲勢,所以只有在可信的情況下進行才變得可能

  • and settle all scores, which leads to the cycles of bloody vendetta.

    為了使其變得有可能,你必須報復所有的侵犯

  • Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos." Hobbes' solution,

    和擺平所有的恩怨,但這又會導致血腥復仇的惡性循環

  • the "Leviathan," was that if authority for the legitimate use

    人生就會變成像電視劇"黑道家族"。Hobbes的解決方案為

  • of violence was vested in a single democratic agency -- a leviathan --

    如果對暴力行為,權力的合法使用

  • then such a state can reduce the temptation of attack,

    是屬於一個單一的民主結構-- 一個權力巨獸 --

  • because any kind of aggression will be punished,

    那麽這樣一個國家就能降低攻擊的誘惑性,

  • leaving its profitability as zero. That would remove the temptation

    因為任何一種侵犯都會受到懲罰,

  • to invade preemptively, out of fear of them attacking you first.

    使進攻的好處變為零。那就會消除因為擔心他人會先幹掉你

  • It removes the need for a hair trigger for retaliation

    而造成你先下手為強的誘惑性。

  • to make your deterrent threat credible. And therefore, it would lead

    同時也消除了為了使你的威懾變為可信立即報復的需要。

  • to a state of peace. Eisner -- the man who plotted the homicide rates

    因此,這可以為

  • that you failed to see in the earlier slide --

    一個國家帶來和平。Eisner--那個在之前的幻燈片裏

  • argued that the timing of the decline of homicide in Europe

    統計你看不到的凶殺率的人 ——

  • coincided with the rise of centralized states.

    他主張歐洲凶殺率下降的那個時期

  • So that's a bit of a support for the leviathan theory.

    剛好是中央集權的崛起。

  • Also supporting it is the fact that we today see eruptions of violence

    那是對權力巨獸理論的小證明。

  • in zones of anarchy, in failed states, collapsed empires,

    同時支持這理論的還有我們今天看到無政府狀態

  • frontier regions, mafias, street gangs and so on.

    爆發的暴力行為:在失勢的國家,崩潰的帝國,

  • The second explanation is that in many times and places,

    邊境地區,黑手黨,街頭幫派等等。

  • there is a widespread sentiment that life is cheap.

    第二種解釋是在很多的時空情境下

  • In earlier times, when suffering and early death were common

    有人命本賤的看法。

  • in one's own life, one has fewer compunctions about inflicting them

    在早期,當痛苦和早逝對於一個人是很平凡的事的時候

  • on others. And as technology and economic efficiency make life

    人們對於造成他人受苦或死亡的內疚感就不會強烈。

  • longer and more pleasant, one puts a higher value on life in general.

    當科技和經濟有效地使我們的生命

  • This was an argument from the political scientist James Payne.

    延長並且更愉快,人們普遍上對於生命會有更高的評價。

  • A third explanation invokes the concept of a nonzero-sum game,

    這是政治學家James Payne的論點。