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  • Chris Anderson: We're having a debate.

    我們有一場辯論

  • The debate is over the proposition

    這場辯論的主題是

  • What the world needs now

    「這個世界需要核能-- "

  • is nuclear energy" -- true or false?

    是對還是錯?」

  • And before we have the debate,

    在辯論開始之前

  • I'd like to actually take a show of hands --

    我想讓現場各位簡單表決一下

  • on balance, right now, are you for or against this?

    總體來說,目前你是站在那一方?

  • So those who are "yes," raise your hand. "For."

    贊成核能的人,請舉手

  • Okay, hands down.

    好的,請把手放下

  • Those who are "against," raise your hands.

    反對核能的人,請舉手

  • Okay, I'm reading that at about

    嗯,從舉手的數量來看

  • 75-25 in favor at the start.

    目前贊成與反對的比例大約是75:25

  • Which means we're going to take a vote at the end

    辯論完後,我們會再作一次統計

  • and see how that shifts, if at all.

    看是不是有所改變

  • So here's the format: They're going to have six minutes each,

    現在說明規則:雙方各有6分鐘

  • and then after one little, quick exchange between them,

    一方說完馬上換另一方

  • I want two people on each side of this debate in the audience

    我會從現場觀眾挑出2位支持者跟反對者

  • to have 30 seconds

    這4位有30秒

  • to make one short, crisp, pungent, powerful point.

    表達支持論點的理由

  • So, in favor of the proposition, possibly shockingly,

    有點不可思議,今天的辯論正方

  • is one of, truly, the founders of the

    他是環保運動的

  • environmental movement,

    創始者之一

  • a long-standing TEDster, the founder of the Whole Earth Catalog,

    他多次出現在 TED 演講,同時也是雜誌《Whole Earth Catalog》的創辦人

  • someone we all know and love, Stewart Brand.

    我們熟悉且敬愛的,史都華特-布蘭德

  • Stewart Brand: Whoa.

    哇嗚

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • The saying is that with climate, those who know the most

    說到氣候,瞭解氣候的專家

  • are the most worried.

    一定都非常擔心氣候問題

  • With nuclear, those who know the most

    但是講到核能,最瞭解它的專家

  • are the least worried.

    卻一點都不擔心它

  • A classic example is James Hansen,

    一個典型的例子就是,詹姆斯-漢森

  • a NASA climatologist

    他是NASA的氣候學家

  • pushing for 350 parts per million

    並極力呼籲將大氣中的二氧化碳

  • carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

    降到 350PPM 以下(註:可抵抗暖化的濃度)

  • He came out with a wonderful book recently

    他最近推出了一本書

  • Storms of My Grandchildrencalled "Storms of My Grandchildren."

    書名《子孫的風暴》

  • And Hansen is hard over for nuclear power,

    漢森致力研究核能

  • as are most climatologists

    就像許多氣候學家

  • who are engaging this issue seriously.

    正專注這個問題

  • This is the design situation:

    現在的情況是

  • a planet that is facing climate change

    地球正在面對氣候改變

  • and is now half urban.

    都市面積幾乎佔了陸地的一半

  • Look at the client base for this.

    在這種情況下

  • Five out of six of us

    有6分之5的人(83%)

  • live in the developing world.

    居住在開發中國家

  • We are moving to cities. We are moving up in the world.

    我們會往城市集中,尋找更適合生活的地方

  • And we are educating our kids,

    我們會給予下一代教育

  • having fewer kids,

    生育率下降

  • basically good news all around.

    這些,基本上都是不錯的消息

  • But we move to cities, toward the bright lights,

    我們會往城市光亮的地方聚集

  • and one of the things that is there that we want, besides jobs,

    在城市裡,除了工作,另一個我們要的東西

  • is electricity.

    就是電力

  • And if it isn't easily gotten, we'll go ahead and steal it.

    如果電力不易取得,我們會用偷的

  • This is one of the most desired things

    對於全世界

  • by poor people all over the world,

    住在城市和鄉間的窮人

  • in the cities and in the countryside.

    電力是他們迫切需求的必需品之一

  • Electricity for cities, at its best,

    一個城市所需的電力

  • is what's called baseload electricity.

    我們稱之為基本負載電力

  • That's where it is on

    基本負載電力是指

  • all the time.

    能維繫生活所需的基本電力

  • And so far there are only three major sources of that --

    至今我們主要用 3 種發電方式

  • coal and gas, hydro-electric,

    煤氣發電、水力發電

  • which in most places is maxed-out --

    這二者佔了大部分

  • and nuclear.

    還有一項是核能發電

  • I would love to have something in the fourth place here,

    我希望這張圖表還能加上第4項

  • but in terms of constant, clean,

    這一項是穩定、乾淨、

  • scalable energy,

    可擴展的能源

  • solar and wind and the other renewables

    太陽能、風力、以及其他再生能源

  • aren't there yet because they're inconstant.

    都還不算是這種能源,因為他們都不夠穩定

  • Nuclear is and has been for 40 years.

    迄今,核能的發展已 40 年了

  • Now, from an environmental standpoint,

    目前,站在環境保護的立場來看

  • the main thing you want to look at

    你會特別注意

  • is what happens to the waste from nuclear and from coal,

    我們在核能發電和煤炭發電上

  • the two major sources of electricity.

    消耗了哪些東西,產生了哪些東西

  • If all of your electricity in your lifetime came from nuclear,

    如果你一輩子所用的電力都來自核能

  • the waste from that lifetime of electricity

    為了產生這些發電量所造成的廢棄物

  • would go in a Coke can --

    大概只有一個可樂罐大小

  • a pretty heavy Coke can, about two pounds.

    有點重的可樂罐,大約 2 磅

  • But one day of coal

    不過在一個

  • adds up to one hell of a lot

    發電量十億瓦特的煤炭發電廠

  • of carbon dioxide

    發電一天所產生的二氧化碳

  • in a normal one-gigawatt coal-fired plant.

    會多到嚇死人

  • Then what happens to the waste?

    這些廢棄物會到哪裡去?

  • The nuclear waste typically goes into

    從反應爐取出來的核廢料

  • a dry cask storage

    一般會儲存在一個乾燥桶裡

  • out back of the parking lot at the reactor site

    然後放在反應爐附近的空地

  • because most places don't have underground storage yet.

    目前還沒有太多的地下儲存廠

  • It's just as well, because it can stay where it is.

    但也無傷大雅,至少這些廢料不會亂跑

  • While the carbon dioxide,

    當超多的二氧化碳

  • vast quantities of it, gigatons,

    達到數10億噸的份量

  • goes into the atmosphere

    跑到我們的大氣層

  • where we can't get it back, yet,

    我們就沒辦法再將它們回收

  • and where it is causing the problems that we're most concerned about.

    這將引起許多我們迫切關心的問題

  • So when you add up the greenhouse gases

    當用不同發電方式產生你一生的用電

  • in the lifetime of these various energy sources,

    然後計算這過程所排放的溫室氣體

  • nuclear is down there with wind and hydro,

    核能產生的溫室氣體,低於風力和水力

  • below solar and way below, obviously, all the fossil fuels.

    低於太陽能,也低於所有化石燃料

  • Wind is wonderful; I love wind.

    風力發電是很棒的,我很愛風力

  • I love being around these

    我也喜歡那些

  • big wind generators.

    巨大的風力發電機

  • But one of the things we're discovering is that

    不過我們發現一件事

  • wind, like solar, is an actually relatively

    風力,就像太陽能一樣

  • dilute source of energy.

    發電過程都會稀釋功率,浪費能量

  • And so it takes a very large footprint on the land,

    風力發電需要很大的土地面積

  • a very large footprint in terms of materials,

    建造這些高塔也需要許多資源

  • five to 10 times what you'd use for nuclear,

    大概是核能發電所需的5到10倍

  • and typically to get one gigawatt of electricity

    一般而言,要獲取十億瓦特的發電量

  • is on the order of 250 sq. mi.

    風力發電大概需要

  • of wind farm.

    250平方英哩的土地(約2.5個台北市)

  • In places like Denmark and Germany,

    有些國家,像是丹麥和德國

  • they've maxed out on wind already.

    他們幾乎都用風力發電

  • They've run out of good sites.

    他們幾乎把可能的地點都用盡了

  • The power lines are getting overloaded.

    電力網已經超出負荷

  • And you peak out.

    達到巔峰

  • Likewise, with solar,

    還有,太陽能

  • especially here in California,

    在加州

  • we're discovering that the 80 solar farm

    我們發現在南方沙漠

  • schemes that are going forward

    當地為了建造

  • want to basically bulldoze

    80座太陽能發電廠

  • 1,000 sq. mi. of southern California desert.

    用推土機剷出1000平方英里的土地

  • Well, as an environmentalist, we would rather that didn't happen.

    嗯,作為一個環保人士,我們不希望這種事情發生

  • It's okay on frapped-out agricultural land.

    這個地方還可以開發成農業區

  • Solar's wonderful on rooftops.

    太陽能電版可以放在屋頂上

  • But out in the landscape,

    若在平地上

  • one gigawatt is on the order of 50 sq. mi.

    蓋十億瓦特的太陽能電廠

  • of bulldozed desert.

    就需要剷平50平方英里的沙漠

  • When you add all these things up --

    把這些成本加一加

  • Saul Griffith did the numbers and figured out

    薩羅•格里菲斯做了一些統計

  • what it would take

    如果想要

  • to get 13 clean

    產生13太瓦(1太瓦=10兆瓦)

  • terawatts of energy

    的潔淨能源

  • from wind, solar and biofuels,

    像是來自風、太陽能、或是生質燃料

  • and that area would be roughly the size the United States,

    大概需要一整個美國的土地面積

  • an area he refers to as "Renewistan."

    這種地區叫「再生能源區」(註:Renewistan)

  • A guy who's added all this up very well is David Mackay,

    有個叫大衛•麥凱的人,細算出這些成本

  • a physicist in England,

    來自英格蘭的物理學家

  • and in his wonderful book, "Sustainable Energy," among other things,

    在他的暢銷著作《永續能源》中

  • he says, "I'm not trying to be pro-nuclear. I'm just pro-arithmetic."

    裡面提到「我不是支持核能,我只是喜歡算術」

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • In terms of weapons,

    如果談到武器方面

  • the best disarmament tool so far is nuclear energy.

    最棒的裁軍方式就是核能發電了

  • We have been taking down

    我們已經拆除了許多

  • the Russian warheads,

    俄國的核子彈頭

  • turning it into electricity.

    然後把它轉為發電用

  • 10 percent of American electricity

    美國有10%的發電量

  • comes from decommissioned warheads.

    就是來自這些俄國的核子武器

  • We haven't even started the American stockpile.

    我們甚至還沒使用自己的退役核子彈頭

  • I think of most interest to a TED audience

    我想在場的聽眾都應該有興趣

  • would be the new generation of reactors

    見證新一代的核子反應爐

  • that are very small,

    它非常小

  • down around 10

    可以產生10兆瓦特

  • to 125 megawatts.

    到125兆瓦特的電量

  • This is one from Toshiba.

    這是東芝研發的(Toshiba)

  • Here's one that the Russians are already building that floats on a barge.

    俄國人利用它來作為貨運船的動力來源

  • And that would be very interesting in the developing world.

    這對開發中國家來說,是很有意思的

  • Typically, these things are put in the ground.

    一般而言,這種設備用在陸地上比較多

  • They're referred to as nuclear batteries.

    這就像核能電池

  • They're incredibly safe,

    它非常安全

  • weapons proliferation-proof and all the rest of it.

    核武器的擴散會因此得到緩和

  • Here is a commercial version from New Mexico

    這是一個商業化的核能電池

  • called the Hyperion,

    由新墨西哥州的 Hyperion 企業所研發

  • and another one from Oregon called NuScale.

    這個是由奧勒崗州的 NuScale 企業所研發

  • Babcock & Wilcox that make nuclear reactors ...

    Babcock & Wilcox 是製作核子反應爐的公司

  • here's an integral fast reactor.

    這是一個快速反應器

  • Thorium reactor that Nathan Myhrvold's involved in.

    前微軟技術長,內森•麥沃爾德也投資發展釷反應器

  • The governments of the world are going to have to decide

    這世界上的一些政府都必須決定

  • that coal needs to be made expensive, and these will go ahead.

    要讓煤炭越來越貴,還是發展核能

  • And here's the future.

    這將是未來值得關注的地方

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • CA: Okay. Okay.

    很好,很好

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • So arguing against,

    接下來,反方辯士

  • a man who's been at the nitty-gritty heart

    他總是陳述事實真相,擁有堅毅的心

  • of the energy debate and the climate change debate for years.

    這幾年來,他參與了許多能源與氣候變遷議題的討論

  • In 2000, he discovered that soot

    在2000年時,他發現了煤煙

  • was probably the second leading cause of global warming, after CO2.

    可能是僅次於二氧化碳的暖化元兇之一

  • His team have been making detailed calculations

    他的研究團隊

  • of the relative impacts

    針對各種發電方式的環境影響

  • of different energy sources.

    做了詳細的計算

  • His first time at TED, possibly a disadvantage -- we shall see --

    這是他第一次出席 TED 大會,也許比較吃虧,看他表現如何

  • from Stanford,

    來自史丹佛大學的

  • Professor Mark Jacobson. Good luck.

    馬克•雅各布森教授。祝好運

  • Mark Jacobson: Thank you.

    謝謝

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

  • So my premise here is that nuclear energy

    我的認定是,核能

  • puts out more carbon dioxide,

    會製造更多二氧化碳

  • puts out more air pollutants,

    更多的空氣污染

  • enhances mortality more and takes longer to put up

    增加死亡率,而且相較於風力、太陽能

  • than real renewable energy systems,

    地熱能、潮汐能等等再生能源

  • namely wind, solar,

    核能需要更長的

  • geothermal power, hydro-tidal wave power.

    建造時間

  • And it also enhances nuclear weapons proliferation.

    核能發電也會增加核子武器的擴散

  • So let's just start by looking at the

    讓我們先來觀察

  • CO2 emissions from the life cycle.

    各種發電廠生命周期的二氧化碳排放量

  • CO2e emissions are equivalent emissions

    CO2e是指(註:CO2e = 二氧化碳等價量)

  • of all the greenhouse gases and particles

    那些會造成地球暖化的

  • that cause warming,

    溫室氣體、微粒(註:溫室氣體有6~7種)

  • and converted to CO2.

    把它們轉換成等效的CO2排放量

  • And if you look, wind and concentrated solar

    你能發現,風力和太陽能

  • have the lowest CO2 emissions, if you look at the graph.

    擁有最低的二氧化碳排放量

  • Nuclear -- there are two bars here.

    看到核能的那處,顯示2個直條圖

  • One is a low estimate, and one is a high estimate.

    一條是估計最低排放量,另一個是最高估計量

  • The low estimate is the nuclear energy industry

    最低估計量是

  • estimate of nuclear.

    核能產業人員計算的

  • The high is the average of 103

    最高的估計量是來自

  • scientific, peer-reviewed studies.

    103個科學研究報告的平均數值

  • And this is just the

    這裡只計算

  • CO2 from the life cycle.

    發電廠從使用到廢棄所產生的二氧化碳

  • If we look at the delays,

    建造一座核能電廠,如果有點延誤的話

  • it takes between 10 and 19 years

    從營運的事前規劃

  • to put up a nuclear power plant

    到電廠的建造完成

  • from planning to operation.

    大概需要10到19年

  • This includes about three and a half to six years

    取得土地的許可

  • for a site permit.

    大概就要 3.5 年到 6 年

  • and another two and a half to four years

    還要再花 2.5 年到 4 年

  • for a construction permit and issue,

    去取得建造許可

  • and then four to nine years for actual construction.

    然後再花 4 到 9 年去真正動工建造

  • And in China, right now,

    現在在中國

  • they're putting up five gigawatts of nuclear.

    有5個十億瓦特的核能發電廠

  • And the average, just for the construction time of these,

    平均建造這些核能發電廠所需時間

  • is 7.1 years

    大約是 7.1 年

  • on top of any planning times.

    是整個過程中最漫長的部分

  • While you're waiting around for your nuclear,

    當你在等待使用核能電力時

  • you have to run the regular electric power grid,

    這段過渡期還是要使用一般的電路線

  • which is mostly coal in the United States and around the world.

    這表示要繼續使用煤炭發電

  • And the chart here shows the difference between

    這張圖表顯示了如果建造核能,或是其他電廠

  • the emissions from the regular grid,

    像是風力、集光式太陽能、光電太陽能

  • resulting if you use nuclear, or anything else,

    使用前的建造時間所產生的

  • versus wind, CSP or photovoltaics.

    溫室氣體排放量

  • Wind takes about two to five years on average,

    風力發電平均需要 2 到 5 年的建造時間

  • same as concentrated solar and photovoltaics.

    跟集光式太陽能和光電太陽能一樣

  • So the difference is the opportunity cost

    所以這種機會成本,就是使用核能與

  • of using nuclear versus wind, or something else.

    其他發電方式的差異之處

  • So if you add these two together, alone,

    把使用核能跟風力的機會成本相比,

  • you can see a separation

    甚至把任 2 種的機會成本加起來

  • that nuclear puts out at least nine to 17 times

    核能發電所造成的二氧化碳排放量

  • more CO2 equivalent emissions than wind energy.

    都至少比風力高達 9 倍到 17 倍

  • And this doesn't even account

    這些甚至還沒計算

  • for the footprint on the ground.

    核能電廠所要佔據的土地面積

  • If you look at the air pollution health effects,

    若你想看看空氣污染對人體健康的影響

  • this is the number of deaths per year in 2020

    這張圖顯示到2020年時

  • just from vehicle exhaust.

    每年因汽車排放物致死的人數

  • Let's say we converted all the vehicles in the United States

    假設我們將全美的汽車

  • to battery electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

    都換成電池動力、氫燃料電池車

  • or flex fuel vehicles run on E85.

    或是混合燃料等等不同燃料來驅動

  • Well, right now in the United States,

    在美國,每年因空污死亡的人數

  • 50 to 100,000 people die per year from air pollution,

    隨空汙來源的不同,死亡人數有50人到10萬人不等

  • and vehicles are about 25,000 of those.

    汽車的空污大約會導致2萬5千人喪命

  • In 2020, the number will go down to 15,000

    不過到了2020年,因為交通工具的改善

  • due to improvements.

    這個數字會降到1萬5千人

  • And so, on the right, you see gasoline emissions,

    圖表最右邊,是到2020年

  • the death rates of 2020.

    用石油當汽車燃料所導致的平均每年死亡數

  • If you go to corn or cellulosic ethanol,

    如果使用的是玉米或是纖維乙醇燃料(註:右2右3)

  • you'd actually increase the death rate slightly.

    死亡數會稍微增加

  • If you go to nuclear,

    如果使用核能當汽車燃料

  • you do get a big reduction,

    這死亡數會大大削減(註:右5)

  • but it's not as much as with wind and/or concentrated solar.

    但是削減的數量完全比不過風力和太陽能