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  • We were told that the global financial crisis of 2008

    我們被告知,2008年的全球金融危機。

  • happened because irresponsible borrowers couldn't afford to pay back their loans.

    發生的原因是不負責任的借款人無力償還貸款。

  • This is true, but it was also part of a much deeper problem.

    這是事實,但這也是更深層次問題的一部分。

  • The issue is that our economic system is based on the need for continuous

    問題是,我們的經濟體系是建立在需要不斷的

  • perpetual growth

    永續發展

  • It's highly likely that we're already in the beginnings of something much worse than a depression,

    很有可能我們'已經處於比蕭條更糟糕的事情的開始。

  • even if bankers and governments won't admit it yet.

    即使銀行家和政府還不會承認。

  • Fortunately, we don't need to hear it from them. we can tell that something is going on

    幸運的是,我們不需要從他們那裡聽到它.我們可以知道,有些事情正在發生。

  • we have the internet and we can share information amongst ourselves.

    我們有互聯網,我們可以共享資訊。

  • And thankfully, if we try hard enough, we could just end up with something much much better than what we have now.

    而值得慶幸的是,如果我們足夠努力,我們最終可能會得到比現在更好的東西。

  • I'm no expert, however I am someone who's done several years of reading

    我'不是專家,然而我是一個'做了幾年閱讀的人。

  • on these topics

    在這些問題上

  • and I really want everyone else to know what's going on, and understand the risks and the opportunities. It's only fair.

    和我真的希望其他人知道什麼'是怎麼回事,並瞭解風險和機會。它'才是公平的。

  • So let's look at how our banking system really works.

    所以,讓我們來看看我們的銀行系統到底是如何運作的。

  • It's commonly believed that banks lend out money that they already have

    一般認為,銀行把已經有的錢借出去了。

  • from invested savings

    存款

  • That would've encouraged a fairly stable system of banking.

    這將鼓勵一個相當穩定的銀行系統。

  • Instead, we have what's called a fractional reserve banking system.

    相反,我們有什麼'的所謂的部分準備金銀行系統。

  • This means that banks can loan out almost all the money that gets deposited with them.

    這意味著,銀行幾乎可以把存到銀行的錢全部貸出去。

  • for example

    比如

  • when you put $100 in one bank

    當你把100美元存入一個銀行

  • they lend $90 of it to someone else

    他們把其中的90元借給了別人。

  • who then puts that $90 in their bank.

    誰就會把這90美元存入銀行。

  • Now there's $190 where there used to be $100

    現在有190美元,以前有100美元的地方。

  • That $90 lent out will also be deposited and $81 lent again.

    那借出去的90元也會存入銀行,再借出81元。

  • In this way, money ends up being multiplied between ten and a hundred times.

    這樣一來,錢最後就會被乘以十倍到百倍之間。

  • sounds crazy right?

    聽起來很瘋狂吧?

  • Less than 1% of the money in the economy is actual notes and coins

    經濟中只有不到1%的貨幣是實際的紙幣和硬幣。

  • the rest are just numbers on computers, created as debt.

    其餘的只是電腦上的數字,作為債務產生。

  • This system rapidly increases the amount of money in the economy,

    這種制度迅速增加了經濟中的貨幣量。

  • which fuels economic growth,

    助推經濟增長。

  • allowing most of us the ability to pay back our debts with interest.

    讓我們大多數人有能力連本帶利償還債務。

  • But only so long as the economy keeps on growing.

    但只有在經濟持續增長的情況下。

  • One reason it won't is that ever since the Industrial Revolution,

    不會的一個原因是,自從工業革命以來。

  • economic growth has been largely dependent on cheap fossil fuel supplies, which are now dwindling.

    經濟增長在很大程度上依賴於廉價的化石燃料供應,而現在化石燃料供應正在減少。

  • When we first started drilling for oil, it was easy to find.

    我們剛開始鑽探石油的時候,很容易找到。

  • it just spurted up out of the ground

    橫空出世

  • We've only been drilling intensively for about 150 years

    我們深入鑽探大約150年了。

  • and oil is no longer easy to find.

    而石油已經不容易找到了。

  • Now, we drill down crazy deep through earth and ocean

    現在,我們瘋狂地鑽進地球和海洋深處。

  • using expensive and risky technology

    使用昂貴而危險的技術

  • It used to cost one barrel of oil to get about 100 barrels of oil out of the ground.

    過去一桶油的成本是100桶左右的石油出地面。

  • These days one barrel only gets us 10 barrels back, and declining.

    如今一桶只能換回10桶,而且還在不斷下降。

  • And that means it's not cheap anymore.

    而這意味著它'不便宜了。

  • The truth is, we're living on a planet that has finite resources.

    事實是,我們生活在一個資源有限的星球上。

  • We've always opted to extract the easiest resources first, while using more and more each year.

    我們一直選擇先提取最簡單的資源,同時每年使用的資源越來越多。

  • Eventually the use of these finite resources has to peak and then decline

    這些有限資源的使用最終要達到頂峰,然後再下降

  • as their extraction gets harder and more expensive.

    因為它們的開採越來越難,越來越昂貴。

  • And according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas,

    而據油氣峰值研究協會。

  • the global peak happened in 2008

    全球高峰期發生在2008年

  • Now, this doesn't mean we're running out of oil, it just means we're running out of cheap oil.

    現在,這並不意味著我們'正在耗盡石油,這只是意味著我們'正在耗盡廉價的石油。

  • When I first heard about this I thought

    當我第一次聽到這個消息時,我想

  • at least oil is mainly just used to drive around

    至少油主要是用來開車的。

  • But no

    但是沒有

  • beyond personal transportation, there's transportation of the food supply

    除了個人運輸,還有食品供應的運輸。

  • and all our other consumer goods

    和所有其他消費品

  • we run all our farm machinery on oil and make our pesticides out of oil

    我們所有的農機都是用油來運轉的,我們的殺蟲劑也是用油來做的。

  • Oil is also a critical ingredient in plastics, pharmaceuticals, asphalt,

    石油也是塑膠、醫藥、瀝青的重要原料。

  • paints, tyres and even toothpaste.

    塗料、輪胎甚至牙膏。

  • In fact, oil is involved in pretty much all of the goods that we use in our everyday life.

    事實上,我們日常生活中幾乎所有的商品都涉及到石油。

  • Plus it's not only oil that's peaked.

    另外它'不僅是石油的峰值。

  • Natural gas, high grade uranium, many rare earth minerals, phosphorus,

    天然氣、高品位鈾、多種稀土礦產、磷。

  • and many other important resources have peaked as well

    和許多其他重要資源也達到了頂峰。

  • We're trying to grow beyond the planet's resource limits.

    我們'正在努力成長,超越地球的資源極限。

  • So not only have we damaged the environment so much that we now get hit

    所以,我們不僅破壞了環境,以至於現在我們受到了衝擊

  • more frequently by more intense natural disasters,

    更加頻繁地遭受更強烈的自然災害。

  • we've also used up most of the non-renewable resources that have been

    我們也已經用完了大部分不可再生資源,這已經是我們的目標。

  • allowing us to live in this high-tech world.

    讓我們能夠生活在這個高科技的世界裡。

  • It's as if we're burning the walls of our house to keep ourselves warm.

    這就好像我們'在燒房子的牆壁來保持自己的溫暖。

  • It can't continue forever.

    它不能永遠持續下去。

  • Anyway, quite apart from peak oil, we seem to be due for a global depression

    總之,除了石油峰值之外,我們似乎還將迎來一場全球大蕭條。

  • just because of the debt buildup

    只因債臺高築

  • If you add up all the debts in the world it's roughly

    如果你把世界上所有的債務加起來,大概是這樣的

  • 150 trillion dollars

    150萬億美元

  • You'd think it has to balance out somehow, that surely some countries are lending to other countries.

    你'會認為它必須以某種方式平衡,肯定有些國家在向其他國家貸款。

  • But no, it's money everyone owes to the banks and their investors.

    但不,這是大家欠銀行和他們的投資者的錢。

  • The problem is, this is the world,

    問題是,這就是世界。

  • we're not about to get bailed out by aliens.

    我們不會被外星人救助的。

  • Up until now the way banks have been lending more and more money has

    直到現在,銀行放貸的方式越來越多。

  • pushed up prices of assets like houses and stocks.

    推高了房子和股票等資產的價格。

  • This was possible because in a growing economy, debts could be paid back.

    之所以能夠做到這一點,是因為在經濟不斷髮展的情況下,債務是可以償還的。

  • But when debts finally build to an unmanageable point,

    但當債務終於積累到不可收拾的地步。

  • as they did before the great depression,

    如同他們在大蕭條前一樣。

  • asset prices can and do go down.

    資產價格可以而且確實會下跌。

  • Because banks are overextended, they lend less, and because individuals,

    因為銀行過度擴張,所以放貸少,因為個人。

  • businesses and countries are also overextended,

    企業和國家也被過度擴張。

  • defaults become more frequent.

    違約行為變得更加頻繁。

  • Both defaults and reduced lending decrease the amount of money

    違約和減少貸款都會減少資金量

  • in the economy,

    在經濟。

  • which means less money chasing the same goods and assets.

    這意味著更少的錢追逐同樣的商品和資產。

  • This leads to a fall in asset prices, called deflation and means that house prices will eventually

    這導致資產價格下跌,稱為通貨緊縮,意味著房價最終將

  • go back down to what's reasonable and affordable.

    回落到什麼'的合理和實惠。

  • So if you have a mortgage,

    所以如果你有抵押貸款。

  • beware that you could end up with more debt than your house is worth.

    小心,你最終可能會欠下比房子更多的債務。

  • This deflationary spiral also means high unemployment,

    這種通貨緊縮的螺旋式上升也意味著高失業率。

  • high prices for necessities and hard times.

    必需品價格高,困難時期。

  • That's what happened during the great depression, and it's what's going on now.

    這'就是大蕭條期間發生的事情,也是'現在正在發生的事情。

  • Only this time round the depression will be even more severe

    只是這一次的蕭條會更嚴重而已

  • because we've never lived in such a globalised world before,

    因為我們從來沒有生活在這樣一個全球化的世界裡。

  • and it will be a permanent decline because of peak oil.

    並且會因為石油峰值而永久下降。

  • The global financial crisis was only the beginning.

    全球金融危機只是一個開始。

  • Since then much of the world's middle class have been struggling just to keep up with their food,

    從那時起,世界上許多'的中產階級一直在掙扎,只是為了維持他們的食物。

  • fuel, bills and mortgage or rent payments

    油費、賬單和房貸或租金

  • and things can only get worse.

    而事情只會變得更糟。

  • So what can we do?

    那我們能做什麼呢?

  • In a deflationary scenario, the money from bailouts and money printing

    在通貨緊縮的情況下,救市的錢和印鈔的錢

  • mostly goes straight into paying down debts

    大部分直接用於償還債務

  • which is why our economies have only barely recovered since 2008

    這就是為什麼我們的經濟從2008年開始才勉強復甦的原因

  • Mostly governments, big business and the media are avoiding these issues

    大多數政府、大企業和媒體都在迴避這些問題。

  • and trying to keep the status quo alive a little bit longer.

    並試圖讓現狀多活一會兒。

  • Which will only end up making the crunch harder in the long run.

    這從長遠來看,最終只會讓緊縮的工作變得更加困難。

  • As things get worse, governments are likely

    隨著情況的惡化,政府很可能

  • to prioritize saving themselves,

    來優先拯救自己。

  • for example by raising taxes and cutting spending

    例如,通過增加稅收和削減開支

  • rather than helping us out.

    而不是幫助我們。

  • There isn't actually any positive strategy they could use to save us

    其實沒有'他們可以用任何積極的策略來拯救我們。

  • that's also in keeping with their own interests and systems,

    那也是符合他們自己的利益和制度的。

  • otherwise they would have done it by now.

    否則他們現在就會這麼做。

  • This complex system has grown to its limit, and it's now in decline,

    這個複雜的系統已經發展到了極限,它現在正在衰退。

  • slowly dismantling itself, piece by piece,

    慢慢的拆解自己,一塊一塊的。

  • delayed only slightly along the way by government intervention.

    在政府的干預下,只是稍稍拖延了時間。

  • Fortunately, I've learnt, it's going to be somewhat ok that our systems just dismantle themselves,

    幸運的是,我'已經學會了,我們的系統就這樣自己拆掉了,這將是有些OK的。

  • because there are millions of people around the world busy at work

    因為全世界有千千萬萬的人在忙於工作。

  • on much better systems we can replace them with

    在更好的系統上,我們可以用

  • The modern industrial world hasn't really given us happiness.

    現代工業世界並沒有真正給我們帶來幸福。

  • It hasn't even eliminated poverty

    它甚至沒有消除貧困。

  • Most of us have been working way too hard, and for what?

    我們大多數人都太辛苦了,為了什麼?

  • To finally exhaust the planet and suffer for it?

    最後耗盡地球的力量,為之受苦?

  • Why not try having energy security through lower energy use

    為什麼不嘗試通過降低能源使用量來實現能源安全呢?

  • feeling proud of feeding ourselves and making the things we need,

    為養活自己和製造自己需要的東西而感到自豪。

  • switching our priorities from independence to interdependence.

    將我們的優先事項從獨立轉向相互依存;

  • These are changes we can make regardless of whether our governments want to help or not.

    這些都是我們可以做出的改變,不管我們的政府是否願意幫助。

  • There are other alternatives beyond capitalism,

    除了資本主義之外,還有其他的選擇。

  • and I'm not talking about communism either.

    而我'也不是在說共產主義。

  • Both presume an industrial system, which is no longer feasible or desirable.

    兩者都預設了一個工業體系,而這個體系已經不可行,也不可取。

  • In a world with less resources and less money, year after year,

    在這個資源少、錢少的世界裡,年復一年。

  • if we do nothing we'll end up with terrible living conditions, constant conflict

    如果我們什麼都不做,我們將最終與可怕的生活條件,不斷的衝突。

  • and potentially a new wave of fascism

    和潛在的法西斯主義新浪潮

  • and no one wants that.

    沒有人想這樣。

  • The positive option is that we just learn to get along with each other and look after the earth again.

    積極的選擇是,我們只要學會彼此相處,重新照顧地球就可以了。

  • We can work together to build new infrastructures that can support meaningful work and dignified lives.

    我們可以共同努力,建立新的基礎設施,支持有意義的工作和有尊嚴的生活。

  • We can choose to work much shorter hours, eat much healthier food,

    我們可以選擇更短的工作時間,吃更健康的食物。

  • growing most of it ourselves

    自生自滅

  • and spend a lot more of our time with our families and friends.

    並花更多的時間與家人和朋友在一起。

  • I'm not talking about going back to the stone age.

    我'不是說要回到石器時代。

  • People have been working on

    人們一直在努力

  • cool new ways to live without an industrial economy

    沒有工業經濟的酷炫新生活方式

  • for well over 40 years now.

    40多年了。

  • for example

    比如

  • permaculture is a system of doing much more with much less energy,

    養生是一種用更少的能源做更多的事情的系統。

  • and in particular intensively and organically growing food.

    特別是集約化、有機化種植糧食。

  • Appropriate technologies have been developed to meet human needs

    已經開發了適當的技術來滿足人類的需求。

  • like heating and cooling

    冷暖自如

  • in highly energy efficient ways.

    以高效節能的方式。

  • Local currencies that are more equitable and stable are being designed and tested around the world.

    世界各地都在設計和測試更加公平和穩定的當地貨幣。

  • Transition Town groups are building community and leading preparatory efforts to relocalise.

    過渡鎮各小組正在建設社區,並牽頭做好重新安置的準備工作。

  • Distributed manufacturing is about producing what we need, close to home

    分佈式製造就是就近生產我們所需要的東西。

  • with nifty technologies like 3d printers.

    與3D打印機等靈巧的技術。

  • There are even groups working on peer to peer versions of the internet

    甚至有團體在研究點對點版本的互聯網。

  • that we can get up quickly if the internet happens to go down.

    以便我們在網絡發生故障時能迅速恢復。

  • I just wanted to point out this small set of examples

    我只想指出這一組小例子。

  • because every time I worry about some particular challenge,

    因為每次我都會擔心一些特殊的挑戰。

  • I look it up and there's a group of people who've set themselves to figuring out

    我查了一下,有一群人,他們已經把自己設定為弄清了

  • a positive and feasible way through it.

    一個積極可行的方法來解決這個問題。

  • Working together/ we can create a better world,

    我們一起努力,就能創造一個更美好的世界。

  • here and now.

    此時此刻。

  • Really, my hope is that as the system continues to fall apart,

    真的,我的希望是,隨著制度的不斷崩潰。

  • those of us who find out what's going on,

    我們這些人誰發現了什麼'是怎麼回事。

  • prepare ourselves and start whatever local projects and enterprises

    籌備和啟動任何地方項目和企業

  • to prepare our communities that we can.

    為我們的社區做好準備,我們可以。

  • So that as conditions worsen, we can build community

    是以,當情況惡化時,我們可以建立社區。

  • and share ways of growing food and simple sustainable technologies and plenty more

    並分享糧食種植方法和簡單的可持續發展技術以及更多的內容。

  • that people will be very interested in during a time of great financial hardship.

    在經濟困難時期,人們會非常感興趣。

  • Major economic downturns throughout history have not been happy times,

    歷史上重大的經濟衰退都不是幸福的時刻。

  • and this one is set to be bigger than ever before.

    而這一次的規模將比以往任何時候都要大。

  • There are real possibilities of austerity leading to exploitation,

    緊縮政策確實有可能導致剝削。

  • a rise of fascism, and world war three.

    法西斯主義的興起,和第三次世界大戰。

  • The fact that this time round some of us are aware of what's going on

    事實上,這一次我們中的一些人意識到了什麼'是怎麼回事。

  • and are preparing for the crash

    並正在準備崩潰

  • as well as the degree of free communication the internet affords us

    以及互聯網給我們提供的自由交流的程度。

  • are the main things we have going for us.

    是我們的主要事情。

  • We all have basic human needs for security and safety,

    我們每個人都有基本的安全和保障需求。

  • and if we're lucky for happiness and fulfillment as well.

    和如果我們'幸運的幸福和滿足以及。

  • This is happening to all of us,

    這發生在我們所有人身上。

  • and we all have the ability to make choices as to how we handle the future.

    我們都有能力選擇如何處理未來。

  • So I'm asking you, please, even if this seems outside the realm of possibility,

    所以,我'請你,即使這似乎不在可能性範圍內。

  • at least do some research, check it out for yourself.

    至少要做一些調查,自己去看看。

  • You can decide what kind of future you want and start taking steps to make it happen.

    你可以決定你想要什麼樣的未來,並開始採取措施來實現它。

  • The more of us who start now, the more likely this transition is to be peaceful and just,

    我們現在開始的人越多,這一過渡就越有可能是和平和公正的。

  • and perhaps even exciting and promising.

    甚至可能是令人興奮和有前途的。

  • In the meantime,

    同時。

  • if you appreciate what you've seen and heard here,

    如果你欣賞你在這裡的所見所聞。

  • please send this animation on to your family and friends.

    請把這個動畫發給你的家人和朋友。

  • The more people who know about this, the better off we will all be.

    知道這件事的人越多,我們的生活就越好。

We were told that the global financial crisis of 2008

我們被告知,2008年的全球金融危機。

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我們少用一點,留給子孫後代的,便越多(What the Economic Crisis Really Means - and what we can do about it)

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    Zenn 發佈於 2013 年 02 月 28 日
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