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  • The world is running out of oil.

    全世界的石油正在耗盡

  • At least that was the idea behind the "peak oil" hypothesis

    至少這是幾十年來主導經濟思想的「石油峰值」假說

  • that dominated economic thinking for decades.

    背後所隱含的想法

  • But it turns out that with fracking,

    但事實證明,在壓裂、

  • deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there's a lot more oil in the world than we once thought.

    深水鑽井和油砂方面,世界上的石油量比我們所想的還要多

  • The old "peak oil" theory ain't happening.

    過去提出的「石油峰值」理論並沒有發生

  • But what if instead of running out of oil we just stopped buying the stuff?

    那如果不是油量耗盡,而是我們就乾脆不買油了?

  • Most oilmen scoff at the idea.

    大部分的石油工人都嘲笑這個想法

  • There are one billion gas guzzling cars on the road worldwide today,

    目前全球道路上有十億輛耗油車

  • and only one tenth of one percent of them have a plug.

    其中只有 0.01% 的車屬於插電式混合電動車

  • OPEC contends that even in the year 2040, EVs will make up just one percent.

    石油輸出國家組織認為即使到了 2040 年,電動汽車也只佔 1%

  • But don't be so sure.

    但先不要那麼肯定

  • Consider the "S Curve.”

    想想所謂的「S 曲線」

  • S Curves are used to describe the spread of new technologies over time,

    S 曲線 (生長曲線模型) 是用來描述新技術隨時間推移的成長幅度

  • like early refrigerators and color TVs.

    像是早期的冰箱和彩色電視

  • Growth starts off slowly at first,

    起步時,成長緩慢

  • and then when the product really starts to connect with everyday people. We have liftoff.

    而當產品真正開始與人們的日常生活連結起來時,成長快速起飛

  • Eventually the market gets saturated and growth tapers off, forming the top of the "S".

    最終市場飽和,成長趨緩,形成 S 曲線的頂端

  • Predicting the S Curve for electric cars is extremely difficult, because we're making

    預測電動車的 S 曲線極為困難,因為我們是在對

  • assumptions about demand for a type of vehicle that doesn't even exist yet:

    一種還不存在的汽車市場需求做出假設

  • fast, affordable, and spacious cars that have an electric range of at least 2 to 3 hundred miles.

    一種快速、經濟實惠、寬敞,且續駛里程至少 200 到 300 英里的電動車

  • But here's what we know: In the next few years Tesla, Nissan and Chevy plan to start

    但我們知道的是,在未來幾年內,Tesla、Nissan 和 Chevy 等汽車公司都計畫要開始

  • selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. And other carmakers and tech companies

    銷售三萬美金以內的長程電動車,至於其他的汽車製造商和科技公司

  • are investing billions on dozens of new models due out in the next four years.

    正投入數十億美元,預計在未來四年內推出數十種新車型

  • By 2020, some of these will be faster, safer, cheaper, and more convenient than their gasoline counterparts.

    到了 2020 年,其中一些電動車可能會比原本的普通耗油車更快、更安全、更方便

  • That sure seems like the point when the S curve goes vertical.

    那就會像當 S 曲線趨於垂直時的情況

  • To start an oil crash, you don't need to replace all of the cars on the road today.

    石油危機發生之前,你不用將路上所有的汽車都換成電動車

  • You just need to reduce demand enough to cause a glut of unwanted oil.

    你只要將其需求降低到一定水準,導致大量不必要的油

  • Consider the oil crash that started in 2014. That was caused by too much supply,

    想想 2014 年開始的石油危機,就是供給過剩所導致的

  • when producers started pumping out an extra 2 million barrels a day.

    當時製造商每天多產出兩百萬桶石油

  • So when electric vehicles are able to displace that much on the demand side, it should also

    所以當電動車的存在降低人們對石油的需求,而使石油供過於求

  • cause a crash. When might that happen?

    也可能導致類似的危機,那它什麼時候會發生呢?

  • Tesla is building factories to go from about 50,000 sales last year to 500,000 in 2020.

    Tesla 正在建設工廠,就是為了讓銷量能從去年的約五萬輛擴增到 2020 年五十萬輛

  • Let's assume for a minute that Tesla can meet its own forecasts. And let's assume

    假設 Tesla 可以達到自己所預測的銷量

  • that other carmakers maintain their current combined market share for plugins.

    而其他汽車製造商也維持其目前對於插電式混合電動車的市佔率

  • If each electric vehicle displaces about 15 barrels a year, here's the

    如果每輛電動車一年大約能取代 15 桶油

  • impact on oil from all the EVs worldwide. At this rate we hit our benchmark of 2 million

    那麼全球電動車對於石油的影響就會如下:按照這個速度來看

  • barrels of oil a day displaced as early as 2023. That's an oil crisis. And the thing

    2023 年就會達到取代兩百萬桶的基準,石油危機就此發生

  • is, it's just the beginning. It's not at all unreasonable to assume that by 2040

    重點是,這只是一開始,若要假設 2040 年時全球將近一半的的新車都

  • nearly half of the world's new cars will have a plug.

    是插電式混合電動車也是有可能的

  • Sure you're skeptical. The price of electric cars still needs to come down, there aren't

    你當然會很懷疑,因為電動車若要普及,價格還是要壓下來

  • yet enough fast charging stations for convenient long-distance road trips.

    而且還沒有設置足夠的充電站供長途旅行使用

  • Many new drivers in developing countries like China and India will still choose gasoline and diesel.

    且中國和印度等開發中國家的許多新車主仍會選擇汽油或柴油車

  • But imagine a future when the rumbling streets of New York and New Delhi suddenly fall

    但想像一下在未來,因為有了電動車,紐約和新德里吵雜的街道將會變得安靜

  • silent with electric engines. What if global demand for oil starts to fallat first by

    那萬一全球對於石油的需求開始下降,起初下降一點點

  • a trickle, but then in a rush. Trillions invested in oil will be lost, while trillions in new

    但接著急遽下降,如此一來,數兆石油投資將會流失

  • energy will be won. The power of nations will be shuffled.

    而相反地,新能源將獲得數兆投資,各國力量也將面臨洗牌

  • That's the promise of the new peak oil, and it may be coming sooner than you think.

    這就是新「石油峰值」所承諾的狀況,而它可能比你想像的還要更早來臨

The world is running out of oil.

全世界的石油正在耗盡

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 電動車 石油 曲線 插電式 汽車 峰值

電動汽車可能在十年內對石油市場造成嚴重破壞 (Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade)

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    Rachel Kung   發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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